 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network It is reaction week across the NFL as we enter now week number two on the 2022 NFL schedule And I say reaction not overreaction because sometimes you do got a shift pretty quickly to react to what we saw in the opening slate of games We're gonna break things down from a betting perspective for week number two talking about this week's biggest games Where we're seeing betting value in them and our favorite bets across the entirety of week number two Welcome on into covering the spread. That's right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonnis I am a senior writer and analyst for a number fire calm joined here as I am each Thursday by Ryan Williams Check out Ryan on Twitter at Ryan Alexander underscore w Ryan a successful week one for you as we discussed on a Tuesday recapping Last week's last week's action three and two overall three and oh on your spread bets last week Heavy expectations for you this week. How you doing today? Yeah, thanks. Thanks for that Jim I thought we talked about in the green room, you know, not mentioning that right at the beginning before the pressure. Yeah No, but it's good man. I think that we kind of talked about it. This slate is ugly But I think that you know What I'm not even I'm gonna box the saying but you know kind of ugly ducklings Like if you can find the diamonds in the rough or whatever like you can be Profitable this week because there's gonna be so much like you said overreaction to things that we just saw in week one and we see this Every year gem. I mean it's it never fails like people say, you know, don't overreact to week one And then you have week one happen and now it's like, you know Think that the sky is falling for half of these teams. I mean the Green Bay Packers We saw what I put like one Barclays rushing plus receiving profit 188, you know, you know that kind of thing Exactly. Oh, so so this is fun Especially I love weeks like this when the public feels like there's really no good leans on anything And so we're just gonna take favorites blindly And I think that you know, there's still some actionable data that we can digest that, you know We'll put us on some good games. Yeah I think that it is important to react to week one as you alluded to like there is some actual data within that and It's important to weigh that in and I think for me Week two has always been my favorite week because we actually actually have data to look at And we have things that are important to us We still get those overreactions But also under reactions and I'm gonna talk to Ryan about how to balance those two things heading into week number two What his process is for that and then break down some big games this week We will go through chiefs and chargers if you listen to this on Friday Saturday or Sunday and that games already happened We'll stick that at the end of the show Listening here Thursday you want to get our thoughts on cheese versus chargers check out the timestamp in the episode description Over on number fire or in your podcast catcher I'll put the timestamp for when that discussion begins in there So you can jump ahead get our thoughts on cheese chargers and then swing back to hear The rest of the games on the slate for this week before we dive into that though quick reminder to make sure you are Subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast tomorrow our player prop betting preview podcast will be posted That'll be up tomorrow. We also have our week three college football betting podcast with Dr. Ed Fang that was posted on Wednesday night Breaking down biggest games of week number three in college football get that and every other podcast as they're posted by subscribing to covering the spread Wherever you get your podcast also big news Fandal has an all-new mobile gaming app Fandal face off Fandal face off is where you compete in quick fun games against other real people for real cash It is all sorts of games you're familiar with like home run derby wheel of fortune Puzzling strategy games Pat McAfee's kicking game with more on the way contests are action packed and last between two to five minutes So you can play in your couch waiting in line during a commercial break wherever and whenever on your schedule plus You can practice for free anytime whether it be head to head multiplayer or large tournaments Fandal face off has something for you plus in most contests We matched against players of similar skill levels So you never be totally over matched even as a beginner face off is also tied your Fandal account and wallet So you can easily use your daily fantasy funds or sportsbook winnings in the app visit fandal.com Slash face off or download the fandal face off app in the Apple App Store today to get in the game age and location Restrictions apply void where prohibited see fandal.com Slash face off dash terms for terms and conditions. So let's everything start things off here with the key Decision making process for this week, which is how we react to week number one without overreacting or underreacting So Ryan when you are looking at week one and what happened there, how do you balance that? How do you balance taking into account the best data we've got without overweighing it within your decision making Yeah, I think it's just a matter of, you know, where do you balance that? Yeah, I think it's just a matter of, you know, where did lines open looking at the futures and just seeing what where week two was Compared to what we saw last week and how those games played out. I mean, we'll talk about the commanders and, you know, there were some other teams I felt to we'll talk about commanders and lines in that same game like things kind of played out very, very differently in that week one than we expected But a lot of injuries, you know, to report how how are the how are the books viewing those and what can we take from actionable data From what we, if this were just a blank canvas, right, and we didn't have week one information like how we feel about week two And then what is that week one information kind of helping us to paint the picture so I feel like I'm still going about it the same way that I went about week one And how I felt about these teams in week one, especially for some of these, you know, some of these home teams that we're going to be talking about this week that I feel like are in favorable matchups that the public is not giving them credit for Yeah, I think for me it's looking at the data that stabilizes quickly, you know, if there is data that can stabilize quickly I want to value that pretty heavily and that that's more I think pertinent to player props because most efficiency stats for full teams won't stabilize quickly but Workloads for players in these games, that's where you can kind of find inefficient markets over reactions under reactions to stuff like that so, you know, a player snap rate his rushing share his target share his route percentage stuff like that That stuff stabilizes very quickly, and it is going to be better data for us to dive into. So I want to put a lot of weight in that kind of stuff put a lot of weight and stuff that stabilizes quickly when I'm looking at my actual like betting model for spreads spreads and money lines. I know what percentage of that is from week one, and it's not a big number. So it is factored in there. The week one data is in there, but it's less than 10%. So when you're for me, when I'm looking at these numbers, and I'm looking at what my numbers say it's largely still based on the prior I had coming into this year. And based on how week one when I feel pretty good about those so I'm confident heading into week two, we'll see how things go here so let's start things off here with the bucks at the The Saints bucks are two and a half point favorites on the road in New Orleans total here is 44 and a half and James Winston limited in practice Wednesday but seems like he should be good to go the Saints rally to win week one against the Falcons. Lots tougher task here against Tom Brady and the bucks tight spread here we got in this one Ryan. Yeah, I think for this this one it's tough because I always tend to go the Tampa Bay side, especially when they're under the key number of three. We just talked about this last week, coming to fruition and that kind of paid off against Dallas but when you're looking at New Orleans I mean Tom Brady has not beaten this team since joining the box in the regular season. I think there's a lot of merits of that there's not going to be Chris Godwin out there. Mike Evans is dealing with you know soft tissue injuries as he is annually every year. So you're looking at like Julio Jones in an injury riddled Russell gauge going back out there who we think is healthy now but you just saw how much this offense, even though they had the game hand handedly against the Dallas Cowboys like they did like the same offense from 2021. Oh line is banged up to for Tampa Bay so when I'm looking at New Orleans I'm you know interested in the two and a half. I'd be interested to see if something were to change like if we get Mike Evans, fully ago and maybe we get that hook to move to the magic number of three I think that's interesting but also I like the total going under 44 and a half I mean Dennis Allen the new coach for New Orleans I think that he's going to have this defense geared ready to go. Not as James to do too much against his former team we know he has tend to be turnover prone but they've been they're involving Taysum Hill and they're getting up and camera the ball and they have Michael Thomas to kind of stabilize things this you know there were some deep shots that James took in week one but I think for the most part they're going to say you know our defense is our identity and our offense is good enough to compete in games and you know see what Tampa Bay can do but I am interested in the under 44 and a half which the public is to because that number has been down. Yeah, you mentioned James Aaron about you're right early on that game they were very conservative only one out of 10 passes for James were 16 plus yards downfield it's a very low number of the yard around I think like somewhere this is a wide range 17 and 22% I actually don't know it's somewhere around there though but he was well below that second half when they were down had to make up ground he was there James again and that was good but it also tells me that they don't want that to be their baseline that is kind of a break glass in case of emergency kind of thing which would lend itself towards an under here in the situation you mentioned the Mike Evans injury he has a calf injury. I think he's probably okay based on seems like it's kind of a veteran kind of day for Julio there but Donovan Smith, their left tackle didn't practice with his elbow injury he got like hyper extended on one of those plays no I are yet for Smith which is good but I think Thursday will tell us a lot about this box team in terms of the injury report because I've got Chris Godwin ruled out my numbers already but if I have to add Donovan Smith into that, that's going to hurt things quite a bit. The same set of injuries of their own to specific on defense a lot of a lot of guys banged up there in the secondary. So, I think this is one where I have not that yet and I will not that it I want to see what the injury report looks like on Thursday before it aside if Julio is out again, if Smith is out again, I might have to downgrade the Bucks even more. I've got this at the Bucks by 3.24 points, so it would lean towards laying the two and a half but I might have to downgrade them so for me, it's probably a stay away unless we get really good news on Smith and Julio on Thursday. Let's talk about a game that I think is actually pretty fun Ryan. That is the commanders at the Lions. I'm not sure this is just because like the Lions are the hard knocks team the commanders are wild, like they're just an absurd, weird, odd franchise. Right now it is Detroit minus one and a half total is 48 and a half the Lions did cover last week but they had to rally to get there come from behind the second half to lose by three commanders rallied to win against the Jaguars. So I want to ask you the Lions did not win last week but it's kind of being treated as if it was because things have moved in their favor are betting markets now too high on the fight and Dan Campbell's I don't I don't think so Jim, but you know there are some things that concern me so I mean you're looking at one and a half I mean this game is essentially a pick them and it's like oh my gosh Jerry Godford or Carson Wentz who do I lean with. I do like the over in this game right now it is 48 and a half it has been bet up significantly and opened at 44 and a half so you can imagine that you know people are seeing what Detroit did people are seeing what Washington did thinking that these games are going to be explosive and I think so too I mean the way that the Detroit Lions defense and secondary has been playing this is like rinse and repeat they're allowing you know rushing yards to running back we saw my my Sanders find the end zone in week one against this team that's something that you don't see they brought about the mild Sanders touchdown regression all by themselves. Exactly. I think that's interesting they play a lot of man I think that if Carson Wentz is showing us that he has the propensity to throw this rock and sing it all over the field I think that that leans to over now on the Detroit Lions side of the ball. I do want to see what the injury report comes out closer to the weekend because their offensive line is heavily banged up I think Frank Ragnow didn't practice this week. You know earlier this week I think they had another tackle and guard that also were on the DNP list for Wednesday so if the if the Lions often the line is not healthy going against this front seven for the commanders that is some that is troublesome to me so that's something I want to monitor but when we're looking at the Lions all they do is cover they were the best cover team in 2021 they cover in week one now I will say this is the first time under Dan Campbell that the Lions will have been a favorite. So it is interesting to see if they can cover as the favorite here but I do at this point in time I do like the Lions all things considered but I will be monitoring the injury report very closely because that can change a lot of things. Yeah Ragnow is banged up going into week one he did play every snap but obviously it seems like it's kind of a situation where he's not healthy despite playing. Decker played every snap too but he was also out of practice Wednesday Deandre Swift missed practice but it sounds like he said that was kind of maintenance related so he's probably going to want to being okay. One other injury I want to mention is a West Schweitzer on the Washington side of things one of their guards because they actually ran the ball pretty well last week with Antonio Gibson and that could be a concern there. I talked about this on Tuesday how my numbers like Washington the Moneyline and they still do I think Washington should actually be favored here by a tiny bit. Let's see I've got this game as being Washington I should have sorted this I did not do this at a time I got this by Washington by 1.2 points their Moneyline is now plus 108 which means and I've got their win odds here at 53.7%. So there is a decent edge still in the Washington Moneyline I hopefully you got it at 118 or whatever it was on Monday. But I do still think there is value there and I think part of me Ryan is I know we speak ill of Carson Wentz and justifiably so he's earned that. However, it's still an upgrade from Taylor Heineke adding in Johan Dotson and a healthy Curtis Samuel I think those are all impactful so I'm in a very weird situation where my entire life I have been irrationally high stupidly high and Jared Goff and all of a sudden I'm betting against him. It makes me feel odd. I'm not going to lie. My son is being bet against here but it's a tight one. It's a tight one. I think it's going to be a fun game. I'm curious to see if Washington can kind of duplicate that second half magic but it'll be a fun game. Weirdly fun game for sure. So we'll see how that one breaks down. I think that if I were to go with the total I'd agree that you over 48 and a half would be the way I would lean there. Let's talk here about the Dolphins at the Ravens a couple of 1-0 teams. I know it's not the biggest high fly magic but it's kind of fun once again Ravens minus three and a half here. Totals 44 and a half. We saw the Dolphins play pretty well against the Patriots. They beat them pretty easily back in week one but this is a different matchup. Lamar Jackson is different than a Mac Jones with a back injury. So do the Dolphins have the juice to pull off an upset against Ravens this week? Oh Jim this is another tough one. I said week two is a tough week but okay so let's go back to 2021. I mean these two teams faced each other the Ravens for all the injuries that were plagued this team in 2021. They were eight and three going into week 11 against I think it was week 11 against this Dolphins team and they just blitzed the crap out of Lamar Jackson and thus kind of ruined their season. Like the Ravens were never the same after that. Lamar Jackson has now talked about a year later that you know they weren't prepared for that game and they are now. And I really do think that the Baltimore Ravens try and come out here and like get some revenge on the Dolphins. I think that you know we got Mike McDaniel coming in one of the most you know veteran coaches in all of the NFL and John Harbaugh and just the way that Baltimore if they can you know get something going with the run game. Hopefully we see more designed runs for Lamar Jackson in this game as well. This being at home all the money's coming in on the under on this game to under 44 and a half I do like the over as well too. And I think that it comes from the Raven side of the ball forced to it to have to throw. Don't let them establish the run with Raheem Oster and Chase Edmonds and all those guys there. You know an interesting interestingly enough with the over to Jim we're looking at a defense alignment for the Ravens being out. Kyra Fuller with the ACL injury so we could see a lot more big passing plays for Miami if Baltimore can put up an early lead. I fully agree in the over did bet that over 44 and a half myself as well. If I look at like my numbers in terms of projected offensive efficiency this game should probably have a total of around like 47 ish or so. And it's at 44 and a half. So and I don't have a an actual like model for projecting totals and be fully clear on that I will bet them based on what my numbers say but I want to be clear. I don't have a model for this but in the over 44 and a half is that's the only total I feel good about this week to be fully honest. I get a little bit uncomfy with total since I don't have my own model for those. But over 44 and a half does seem to be the way I'd want to go here given this Ravens defense. You know they were solid last week but against Joe Flacco. I know we can talk trash on to all we want but he's better than Flacco and these receivers are better than a pretty solid receiver core for the Jets as well. So to me I think it does bode well for an over here a couple injuries to watch in this game as well right now. I think he might go it kind of sounded like he wasn't going to play based on the Mar last week saying we hope you get it back in a couple weeks but full practice for Dobbins on Wednesday. That's pretty encouraging Ronnie Stanley got an unlimited practice on Wednesday unsure if he'll go. We also had Marcus Peters getting limited practice both those guys sat last week. I'm not sure if they'll play you know we'll see on that one to see if they're able to go here on the dolphin side. I actually am showing value on the dolphins money line here to potentially win this game. I've got their win odds around 48 percent which seems feels a little high but it's in part because my numbers like situations for quarterbacks a lot surrounding context and it's a pretty good surrounding context or two. The reason I'm not recommending the money line as of now is because of the dolphins injuries both their tackles are banged up right now. I'm not really sure what Toronto Armsteads deal is because he was listed as having a a veteran rest day on Wednesday but also to tow injury. So is it a rest or is it a tow injury. I don't know. I'm very I'm very confused about this. It's very odd because of the tow injury. Exactly. Yeah. I don't know what this is but also the right tackle Austin Jackson is practice Wednesday. That one I know it's to his blind side but he's not as big of a difference maker as Armstead is so I'm mostly watching Armstead. I could see myself being in on the money line here. The dolphins money line currently plus 160 I could see myself buying there. I'm not there yet. I want to see similar to the to the buck Saints game. I want to see what the injury report looks like on Thursday. If they get Armstead back out there maybe I will but the one bet I do like in this game is one where I'm in lockstep with rock lockstep with Ryan on the over at 44 and a half. Let's open up the board here. Ryan will talk about Chiefs Charters in just one second but any other bet standing out to you across week two in the NFL. Yeah I do want to you know dive in a little bit more to the slate as we do this early on the week but the one that stuck out to me the most was the Jaguars plus four and a half going against Indy. I mean this is we I talked about Indy last week so does it make me feel comfortable going against Indy two weeks in a row probably not but let's do it again because Jacksonville straight up against Indy is 6 and 0 over the past six matchups. I mean this is one of those things where Jacksonville has just had their number for what for whatever it's worth. We kind of just saw that last year with playing spoiler to Carson Winston company. This Jacksonville Jaguars defense I think is a lot better than people want to give it credit for. I think that Trevor Lawrence you know is hitting a stride with his newly found weapon in Christian Kirk. That's that's going to help them a lot and just the way that Indy kind of you know playing disappointingly against the Houston Texans and now you know having to go up against another divisional divisional opponent. It just you know leans merit to taking the Jacksonville taking the Jaguars that plus four and a half Jim I mean that number I was like you know maybe three and a half is what we'll get but it's and it opened that way and now it just keeps going back to four and a half. Let me ask you this. Can I interest you in the money line. Can I get a Jags win out here. Is that too far. No I mean what the numbers are saying that like you should take that. I know that I bet it earlier on this week. I don't remember betting the Jags but I was looking back through my like logs. I was like I bet the Jags money line. I don't remember this. It must have been like Monday. Did you get to that. I don't know. I mean OK I'll pull it up here but I have to remember which app it was on because I think it was when I was in Illinois still but I did bet it. I'm I don't remember doing this so I'm very curious what number. Yeah I'm curious too because I think they're plus 164 now. Yeah on our book. I think the reason I bet it is I was looking at the week one data and saw how past happy the Jags were and I was just like this is what I'm going to bet the Jags and I bet on Trevor Lawrence. I don't know if it was like and like my numbers don't show value on it right now but like they show a little bit of value. Must have been. Yeah it wasn't that Rhode Island sportsbook so I'll find it somewhere else but I did that when I was in Illinois. This is definitely a Monday bet. I don't think my numbers show value on it now but like they look good honestly. I know Lawrence had some weird passes but I kind of think the Jags are going to be fun this year. Like they might not be great but I think they'll be fun. Yeah I mean they were we talked about this at fan fest like they were my long shot to kind of make the playoffs. You know Lawrence and if Lawrence can you know ride the ship you know how much a favor good quarterbacks when it when I'm doing my process and so I just think you know getting rid of getting rid of Urban Meyer and getting Doug Peterson in there who had some success where he's been at holds merit. The other thing Jim real quickly that's just interesting about this. Oh too when we're talking about injury reports. OK so Pierce Alec Pierce is in concussion protocol. He could clear that. Let's let's kind of monitor that and see what happens. Also Michael Pittman all of a sudden just ended up on the injury report. It was in a limited nature but I just thought that that was interesting because I don't remember anything being talked about him having a significant injury and I did not I'll disclaim or did not watch that game or look back at that game so I don't know if there's anything that happened that he left the game for a little bit came back in or what have you but I thought those two things were interesting and that would drastically change things for the indie side of things if these two guys aren't able to go Alec Pierce I know he's a rookie but for whatever it's worth you know another weapon for Matt Ryan to use. It was a Tuesday I missed it was actually at here in Rhode Island so it was a Tuesday 808 AM I placed it I was a Jags plus 170 in the money line so hasn't moved very much since then but. You know I think I think the Jags little frisky so I'm still OK with that one right now I think we'll see the Jags. We'll see what they could do there but they're kind of fun any other stuff standing out for you before you get to the cheese Chargers game. Yeah I mean I do want to kind of it pains me to say it but you know looking at the kind of Patriots side of thing although they are traveling into Pittsburgh. But just the way that Bella checks numbers compared to Tomlin's numbers. You know against the spread Bella check we're looking at 25 and three against the spread after a loss as a road dog or favorite under a touchdown and we you know we kind of know what Bill Belichick's MO is right he loves to rebound in games and then Tomlin. Is one in seven against the spread after winning straight up as a road dog over the past four years so you know though that I love the Steelers but those numbers are showing me enough data that there could be some value there and taking the Patriots as a road favorite although I'll be it they are short favorite. And then also just you know if you're looking at the Green Bay and Bears game Rogers against the Bears has always you know been been good money. I don't know. Yeah nine to know against the spread after a loss 28 and eight against the spread in the Bears in his career 19 and nine straight up I mean it's just you know it's it's week two after a loss going against the Bears when they you know we'll see what we'll see who the Bears are right because it's not going to be a weird field right condition type of thing you got to travel up to Lambo. I do like I do like my numbers that I got on the Bears win totals for the season just compared to how they played that game and what Matt Eberfoos I think brings to this team. I think they'll be in more games than not than not excuse me but I do think that you know if you're looking at something that's a surefire you want to take an Eliminator or a survivor pick you're looking at the patches. Yeah the Bears are kind of chaos team in a good way you know they're they know that they're not great they're going to keep things muddy they're going to keep things gross they're going to keep things chaotic and I think that's the right to play things with the town on the roster so I think that the the wind totals are talking about do make a lot of sense. Okay that's all we have for the non Thursday games. If you listen to this on Friday Saturday Sunday we'll talk to you once again tomorrow to break down the player prop side of things but let's get to what everyone's been waiting for the Chargers at the chiefs that she is four and a half point favorites in this game total right now is up at 53 and a half. Ryan what do you see here in this fun fun fun Thursday night matchup. Yeah so let's talk about the Chargers side of things I mean okay they are traveling into Arrow to Arrowhead to Kansas City but getting four and a half years just this is ridiculous Jim like the Chargers and they're my Super Bowl picks so I mean maybe I'm betting more of my heart than my head but even my head you know talking about how these two teams have played I mean Herbert's first start in his career was against this team and and being able to beat Patrick Mahomes and the chiefs and when you're looking at you know three of three of the past four games have you know hit over what the total is a 53 and a half I absolutely love that number. I think there's definitely some merit to taking some some good prop bets in this game on Herbert and Patrick Mahomes touchdowns and things like that but definitely the lean on the Chargers plus four and a half they have not really they've won I believe three of the four matchups and then the only loss came in overtime to the chiefs last year which okay they lost by six but that's the only time they've lost. That was a Kelsey weird like yak touchdown that he had. Exactly so I mean just looking at that number when we're getting four in the hook on the road I mean if they can you know okay yeah but Buckers out too Jim Buckers out the kicker. That does impact things quite a bit because it makes I know they did promote a kicker from the practice squad but it kind of softens key numbers in a way so I think maybe if you're looking you could incentivize you towards to look towards an alternate spread to maybe getting the Chargers like you know plus three if you want to you know play with the fact that this is less of a key number than it usually would be I think that it actually does impact things. Yeah no that's interesting I always love looking at outlines especially if you can get it in your favor and plus money talking yourself into the narrative so I am interested in that I know you guys will talk about player props but I do you know Josh Palmer I think is going to be a key factor in this game I think he has to be with Keenan Allen being sidelined and he filled in nicely towards the end of last year in the last five six games for this team when Mike Williams was kind of dealing with some stuff and Keenan Allen was dealing with some stuff every time his prop total right now I think is that over 46 and a half or 45 and a half was the last I checked it and every time he was hitting over this number last year this guy was scoring a touchdown so I mean that you know there's some interesting merit I feel like for Josh Palmer as well. Yeah Josh Palmer plus 270 for an anytime touchdown as well which I think is intriguing given that he does have a decent body type for the end zone we expect the Chargers score a lot of points my numbers agree with you Chargers plus four and a half the way I'd want to go here I'm not betting that because I have a downgrade in there for Keenan Allen that makes it the cheese by 3.7 I typically want more than 0.8 points to dive in but definitely does go the Chargers direction in terms of if I were to bet that also some value in the Chargers money line a plus 176 not enough me to bite but it is an undervalued number for me in both regards the one prop I like in this game a lot well the one prop I think is valuable I don't like it it makes me very uncomfy is Austin Eckler under 97 and a half rushing plus receiving yards the reason I'm uncomfy if we can use that word is the Keenan Allen injury I'm not sure what kind of passing game work Eckler will get with Keenan Allen being out for this game it could just be a spike in uses there for Eckler but in week one he ran 12 routes on 34 drop backs super disappointing there he played about 51% of the snaps and the obvious rebuttal is well they were game planning around the Thursday game keeping him fresh totally makes sense but his yardage like average last year and gains where he played a full component snaps is 98.5 around there which means his meeting would have been below that that's typically the way things go for guys like this and basically what you're saying is that the Keenan Allen injury nullifies the reduction in his role reduction the role they talked about in the offseason so it doesn't make me feel good to go under 97 and a half given that we have the Keenan Allen injury it makes me a little bit nervous maybe you want to go towards the the rushing number for Eckler instead his rushing prop is currently 53 and a half minus 113 on the under I do want the multiple paths to an under though and I do want to take advantage of the fact that there's a lot of routes in week number one so I'll take the rushing plus receiving under 97 and a half I think that's where I want to go any thoughts and accurate for you right or any other props you want to shout out in this game. Yeah I think that I do think that there's some merit there Jim but just the way that the Chiefs defense has done against running backs I mean my game plan against them if I was staley and company would be Eckler needs to be involved in this if they want to have any chance so yeah if I'm taking the plus four and a half I got to feel like Eckler's going to be involved, especially with no Keenan Allen and Mike Williams like Mike Williams is the druckle and hide of all receivers you never know what you're going to get from him. He goes out and he'll have 12 yards and now he'll have two touchdowns and 100 a buck and 30 against the Chiefs just because that's how he performs. But yeah I would probably I mean the over on that number is probably one that I would maybe stray away from but I am interested in his over 39 and a half receiving yards for Eckler so that's that. The other one is just the Patrick Mahomes I talked about his touchdowns over two and a half right now it was plus money. The last time I checked if it is I think you should jump on that for the past four home openers for Patrick Mahomes he's thrown three touchdowns in each one of those games. This guy's just explosive at home and in front of that crowd we know that he loves to pass the ball and we saw them play running back roulette last week as the Chiefs usually do so look for him to hit that number. It's plus one for a team right now over two and a half touchdowns I think that makes sense given that we expect this game to go over the total Chargers past defense JC Jackson might play limited in practice on Tuesday and Wednesday we'll see if that one goes but it's Mahomes baby. It's Thursday night it's going to be a blast of a game I am looking forward to sitting back and watching that one tonight. That is all that we have here for today on the week two betting preview podcast here on covering the spread is mentally back on Friday to talk about some player props for this weekend's game so hit subscribe and covering the spread to get that and also check out our college football week three betting podcast with Ed Fang. Ryan we can find you on Twitter at Ryan Alexander underscore W. Good luck to you this week as a blast having you on and look forward to talking to you once again on Monday to preview two Monday football games. That's right good luck to you as well my fine sir and make sure you're going out there and getting that money where it can be had but yeah always a pleasure Jim I'll catch you next time buddy. Fingers crossed in the money side of things we'll see about that for sure again follow Ryan on Twitter at Ryan Alexander underscore W. I'm on Twitter at Jim Sonnis you can also follow the fan to a podcast network at fan to a podcast. Big thank you to everyone for tuning in for today good luck to you with your bets for Thursday night and the rest of this weekend we'll talk to you once again tomorrow to break down some props. This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network.