 Okay, very good morning to you. It is Tuesday the 5th of May. As you can see I've managed to get myself a haircut but I didn't leave home. I took the unprecedented move of allowing my wife to cut my hair, so fortunately it appears to have worked out okay. However, you can't see the back of my head, so who knows what type of mullet, what Joe Exotic mullet I've got going on at the back, but yeah, risky times, but yeah, just hope everyone is well. I hope everyone is dealing with the lockdown, okay? And certainly a couple things I'd like to go over markets-wise this morning. So, you know, if you're new to this channel, don't forget to like and subscribe. Plenty more updates for coming throughout the week. But first screen I wanted to start with was this one, which is a tweet I did yesterday. So every now and again I put out a poll. I like to put these polls out when I myself, as I was yesterday, were generally a little bit neutral about what I think for the day ahead. I think yesterday was a day where we had remember on the charts, where you can still see it now if I transition over, got the three major indices up here in front of me, the Dow, the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 future in the center charts. And if you look at the S&P, obviously we had a fairly sizeable gap down and a little push lower in Asia. However, as you can see, we have fully recovered that move and some. And I think yesterday was one of those days where, you know, if you came in in the morning first thing Monday, a lot of the press was quite negative about this escalation in the tensions between the US and China and I think that could have skewed, if anything, your outlook of how you were going to approach the day. So really two things that I would really look at in those circumstances, which was correlations. So what are T-notes? What is gold doing? Generally the Japanese yen doing. And so I like to see the multi-asset kind of mix and to basically give a higher conviction rate between whether I think, generally sentiment is going to sour and equities potentially could remain further heavy. I would want to be seeing these kind of coordinated moves across markets. And yesterday, not a great deal of that. And, you know, the second point being that politically, obviously, we're in a presidential election year. Biden's been taking his fair pops up at Trump saying he's weak against China. And obviously, Trump can't resist, but come back at that. And so how much of it is reality, as we've said before, China, like for like overnight, you know, criticizing Pompeo, but not actually criticizing Trump and same with Xi being exempt from some of the Chinese criticism coming by way of America. So again, definitely large, significant tail risk towards a further mismanagement and escalation of tariffs. But Jim Kramer, I know people have a bit of a split opinion about Mad Money's Jim Kramer on CNBC, but he was making a good point yesterday, I thought, which was the idea that really, there's not a lot of ability for Trump to do further tariffs on China, because that's only going to put more jobs at risk, potentially at a point when we're in the depths of the pandemic situation. So a lot of this, perhaps a little bit of hot air at the moment, certainly warrants monitoring, of course. But yesterday, the reason why I'm showing this poll is that people, when I did this, were overtly kind of bearish on the outlook for the week. And that's, you know, we're only on Tuesday. So they might be right in the end of the week. But just that whole idea about being OK and comfortable with having quite a neutral short term outlook when you're trading intraday and then being able to adapt as the situation evolves, because I think quite a few people might have got caught wrong side. Trying to sell into that equity move yesterday, when inevitably we just continued higher and we finished up. The Asia Pacific Session is still a little bit down in terms of the general liquidity. Japan, China and South Korea are all closed overnight. But going into the European Session, if I just flip over to the DAX, we are currently trading up about 140 at the moment. And in the DAX, if I just go to the center left, we're just kind of hovering around the higher the range of what we had yesterday. You can see fairly important from a near term technical perspective, looking at the last, you know, seven, 10 days worth of price action. And around that 10, 6, 28 level, any firmer push above, then you'd be looking for an attempt for a gap fill on a push up to, first of all, probably those lows that were seen on the 28th and then the eventual move up toward the Friday low levels, which are currently about 140 points above where we are at the moment. Certainly not off the cards for the DAX in terms of the average ranges that we see in that index. Elsewhere, just looking at the broader markets, the dollar index is basically flat. So not really too many telling signs going on in the currency market for the moment. We'll have a look at the Aussie in a second because we had the RBA overnight. Gold, just seeing a bit of a bump higher as Europe have come in, albeit just still down about four dollars on the session. T-notes down four ticks on the day, just with some of the general stability seen in the equity market at the moment, with those US indices holding on to positive gains at the moment in the futures. The other market is oil. Oil you can see here, just looking on a 60 minute chart, had that kind of rough trend line marked up over what has been the quite phenomenal recovery in oil. And I was just looking at where we are to where we have been. And a couple of things to be aware of, and I'm just going to run through a few headlines. For one, obviously, we continue to go from a south of $10 really level, or $10.30 actually, in fact, $10.07 was the low. And we are now trading up as of this morning at $22. So, yeah, two areas really of quite firm technical relevance. The nearest point being the breach that we had late in the US session yesterday, which was north of 2050. That was helping restrict some of the price action through the 1st of May. And then we had a retest before the eventual break that came. And that's pushed us back up to consolidate now up and around the levels that we were trading back on the 21st of April. Above here, if we continue pushing, then I'm just keeping an eye here around $22.70 at being the high that we had back on the 21st and that low on the 20th. And then I think if you go a bit further back, that does start to bring in as well a similar price point level that was seen back on the 20th of March as well. So I'm interested to see how we react up at these levels. Now, why is oil rallying? Well, a couple of different things. I'd say probably threefold. And let me just switch over to here. So fifth day of gains, output cuts easing glut concerns. So let's focus on that one first. And here's a graphic via the FT looking at coronavirus leads to a big drop in oil demand, but it should recover. And this is one of the things that we were looking at as we go into further into May. The more than that, these OPEC cuts, which they had agreed at that meeting pretty much about a month ago now, on April 9th, about not just OPEC plus, but these other kind of G20 energy countries all getting involved. So the combination of a coordinated effort to reduce production, but also the natural lower price point, just taking off a lot of oil production offline, is going to lead to this very sharp V shape recovery in total world consumption is the idea. So here you can see then by the time the FT graphics suggesting citing the EIA, the energy information administration in the US, that by the time we get to kind of June, July, then the production and the consumption rates should have hit a kind of equilibrium in that sense. So again, a little bit of stabilisation, certainly that the calendar kind of spread and what we were seeing is starting to narrow quite considerably, which is more of aversion back to normality after that big negative price movement we had about two weeks ago. So that's kind of, I guess, point one. The other points here that people are looking at is this particular comment. Genscape reports are the modest rise in stockpiles at Cushing. So if anyone new to energy markets every week, there's basically three pieces of information that we look at from an infantry perspective. Monday, we get the Genscape reading. Then we get the American Petroleum Institute, the API's inventories, which will get later tonight at nine, just after 9 30 London time. So very much later in the evening. And then we get the Department of Energy's, the DOE's infantry numbers, which are the main kind of more market volatile release because it's dropped right in the middle of the session. And that's the kind of main event, if you like, for the weekly crew inventories. So the Cushing one specifically focuses on Genscape and it reported a 1.8 million barrel build in inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma. That would mark the smallest increase at the hub since mid-March. Remember, part of what caused this whole oil situation of negative prices was a lack of storage and this idea that we are closely getting towards maximum capacity. But what the Genscape data is suggesting is that, yes, there are builds, but they're becoming ever more smaller, which is a more positive side as well. That the actual getting towards hitting capacity is going to be slower, but also as well. Hopefully then, if consumption can start to pick up again and demand pick up generally, as what we're seeing with coronavirus lockdowns now being talked to be loosened across the globe. Well, then hopefully that can offset then some of this storage issue going over the next period of weeks and months. I guess there's probably a question of, well, who are Genscape other than having this super cool looking website? They're the world's largest private network of infilled monitors and industry leading alternative data. So market intelligence essentially, but in a more real time fashion. Who actually has visibility on the Genscape data? This would predominantly be oil specialists, those who need it in industry. So big oil firms, transportation, these types of things where you really need to be tracking it because a large volume of probably physical movement as well as, you know, these power companies actually looking to manage and hedge their positions and so on. So does it get much of a look in from a trading intraday point of view? Yes, people do look at it particularly in the context of now when Cushing obviously is such a hot spot that people are keeping an eye on in the crude market. So hopefully that makes a little bit more sense. So Genscape on a Monday, API on a Tuesday and DOE on a Wednesday. The other thing then that's probably assisting some of the oil recovery is we're looking at this, which is the update on the coronavirus situation. So several countries have turned the corner with a number of new cases now in decline. So just going to give you an overall kind of summary of what the situation is. So in America, California, which was the first state to go and lock down over COVID-19 will start loosening its lockdown on Friday. Retail stores are set to open this week. Then in New York, I saw the number of daily coronavirus fatalities. Well, this is not New York for the US fell below a thousand for the first time in more than a month on Monday. New York also seeing some signs of progression as well in terms of controlling the situation. Italy, they began to reopen its economy after two months. Spain has started to relax its lockdown regime. And Hong Kong's leader has said the city may relax virus restrictions soon. So we're all kind of getting to that to that point. And obviously that's probably also having a little bit of a general supporting factor for markets overall. I don't think it's definitive, but at least the situation at this point is not getting worse. Obviously, as we've stated many times before, we are far from out of the woods yet in terms of the potential repercussion. That any mismanaging of the unwinding of these quarantine measures being put in place could have further down the road. But for now, things are relatively OK. Elsewhere from the overnight session, we've had the RBA come out. They maintained both the cash rate and three-year bond yield target at 0.25 percent. The Aussie is pretty much neutral to where it started. Initially dipped, it rallied a decent amount, hit a high when Europe came in. Now it's backed off a little bit. So pretty mixed really. I would say overall, no real great surprises coming, despite a variance of perhaps 25-30 pips in the pair's price movement. The bank said it was prepared to scale up these purchases again in terms of what it's been actively doing and unconventional measures. And they'll do whatever is necessary to ensure bond markets remain functional. They decided to broaden the range of eligible collateral for its operations to include Australian dollar securities issued by non-bank corporations with an investment grade rating. All in all, though, they're bracing for an economic hit that they haven't done anything spectacularly new, but similar, I guess, to what we've had from other central banks of late. And pretty much in fitting with what economists were expecting from the RBA. So net, net, not too much there. The other thing that's that some people will be looking at today that isn't kind of on your mainstream calendars is this. And this is the German Constitutional Court is about to rule on the legality of the ECB's QE program. Now, I've got here a bit of a short summary because a lot of this might be new for some of you. So what I want to kind of wrap it up is to general term is what we're looking at here. So the ECB is not subject to German law. But if you think about the way of which the the Eurozone works, is that every single member of the Eurozone has its own national kind of central bank. So in this case, in Germany, they've got the Bundesbank. So the Bundesbank, though, has to adhere to German law, albeit then on the top level, the ECB might not. So what happens on this level can, though, have a precedence on what can happen then on a European wide level. Now, that's because the reason why it's such a big deal is that Germany central bank is the largest shareholder in the ECB. If you think about more broadly the way the ECB functions in terms of things like quantitative easing, well, you cannot ask or expect a country like Malta to be contributing the same in terms of funds. Then someone like Germany, economically, they're just so wildly different in terms of their ability and capacity to be able to do so. So therefore it's more of a proportionate basis in this sense. And no ruling from the court today would therefore take the Eurozone into legally uncharted territory. The ruling was expected to happen actually about two months ago, but the court postponed as part of the broader coronavirus lockdown. They argue that the ECB is overstepping its authority with the QE program and removing the incentive for EU countries to pursue sound fiscal policy by creating then this ever expanding safety net. You know, if you think about it really between the lines, then Germany are paying more. The biggest beneficiary of that is Italy and a lot of people in Germany have a problem with that, as probably that you can imagine. So herein lies the problem. The worry, of course, is the negative ruling could throw some doubts as to the newly announced 750 billion euro pandemic emergency purchase program from the ECB, the PEPP. However, the ruling won't formally cover that particular policy tool, but the court's reasoning could hold implications for it. As per, I'm sure you guys are more broadly aware of legal proceedings, you can set a precedent then, depending on how this is dealt with, what it might mean then for other options that the ECB might have for QE going further forward. Particularly this idea then about if they are going to expand the QE program going forward, then there's probably going to have to be some tweaks into how the ECB's purchases are conducted. And this is where then the issues could lie. So yeah, I'm not sure on the calendar if they've got a time for this, but obviously you've got my Twitter handle there. Just follow me any timings I get or any hearsay rumors and so on. I'll keep you posted. I can see here on the calendar, they've got the German court ruling happening at 9am London time. So I do suggest you keep an eye out for that. I'm a little bit unsure how much reaction you'll get, but I'd prefer then by conclusion of that statement to sit on the side. Lines and just wait for that to let the clarity emerge of what the exact ruling is before then committing to anything to to brash on any Euro related moves at this point this morning. That's pretty much it. So quick look at the calendar. What have we got? So other than that court ruling. Harbie is obviously done. You've got the UK. These are final reading for the service PMI construction PMI. And then we go into the US afternoon. No real major 130s coming out of the States until we get to the afternoon. You also get the service PMI from the US again. Final reading, the API for trees coming later on this evening. Speaker wise, ECB's Mersh speaking at 9.40, then Feds Evans and Bostick speaking this afternoon evening. But just a reminder, they are both non-voting members of the FMC this year. And then from a US earnings point of view, I guess if you're an index trader, not really too much risk there, the biggest largest cap names Walt Disney, Dominion, Allagan, more for the single stock traders out there. All right, that is it. So unless there's any questions, let me know. Be happy to pick them up or just leave a comment on the video. Remember to like and subscribe. Be much appreciated and I'll see you same time tomorrow. Thanks very much guys.