 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The morning market kickoff with your host Tommy O'Brien. Good morning everybody. I'm Tommy O'Brien, coming to you live from TFNN Wednesday morning just after 9 a.m. Eastern time. We've got markets off to the downside this morning. Chairman Powell coming up in about an hour at 10 a.m. Eastern time. It's going to be interesting to see what he has to say. His remarks are already out there and let's jump over to the headline. Why not? We'll kick it off with that headline to begin things. Nearly all FOMC participants expect that it will be appropriate to raise interest rates somewhat further by the year end. That is in the remarks for the testimony that he is going to deliver to the House Financial Services Committee. The speech is part of his semi-annual appearance on Capitol Hill to update lawmakers on monetary policy. So that speech is out. He's going to be there at 10 in the morning. All but expected that he would say something to that degree, right? In terms of all participants, etc., but nonetheless, what do we got? We've got the market trading lower, S&Ps off by 15, you're at 44.19 right now. We back things up. You're talking about Friday action, 44.93, Thursday action, we're approaching 44.90 as well, just like that. We're 70 points off of those price levels we're approaching the lows of yesterday. That price level 44.10 in the S&Ps right now, we're negative by about a 30%. We'll see if we get some volatility as Chairman Powell is up in about 52 minutes. NASDAQ 100, we're off by 68 points, that's about half a percent of the red. Dow off by 106, 34,250. The Dow yesterday's low, 34,200, you started the day at 34,525. The Russell negative by six this morning at 18.79, we jump over to crude. Some volatility yesterday to the downside. We claw back some of those losses overnight. We're basically flat on the session, 71.28, you got gold with some volatility yesterday as well. We go to the downside, gold off $10 at 19.37, got to jump over to notes and bonds. The 10-year chopping around a bit, 113.03, we're negative by seven ticks right now, we jump over to the dollar index. You see pretty interesting what gold is doing in light of the dollar index that's been pretty steady since the drop-off last Thursday. Dollar index dives down to 102.20 last Thursday. We've been chopping around a bit comparatively to the gold contract. We have Thursday spike higher and just like that we're actually back to basically where we were Thursday before that acceleration. As opposed to you check out the gold, the dollar index, that would have put the dollar index all the way back up to 103.20 or 103.40 or even above that price level. So a little bit of disparity going on over there. We jump over to the VIX, volatility index. How about it? We've got a little negative market but it seems like maybe the remarks getting released alone sucks a little volatility out of the room. You get the VIX at 13.71 as we get the market, negative by 15 points right now in the VIX actually below where we were as of the close of yesterday. So no elevation in the VIX whatsoever even though we have a little bit of negative action in the market to kick things off. All right, where do we kick things off today? Whether it's the Fed, whether it's the economy, let me jump to the articles and yeah, let's just stay on the Fed for a moment because that's going to be the focus at 10 o'clock. The timing of the moves will be decided meeting by meeting. I mean, I don't think you're going to get a lot of teeth here, especially as the remarks come out. My colleagues and I understand the hardship that high inflation is causing. How many times have we heard that? They remain steady at 2%. We've heard that. It doesn't seem like there's going to be any headlines made. Excuse me. We will continue to make our decisions meeting by meeting based on the totality of incoming data and their implications for the outlook for economic activity and inflation, as well as the balance of risks. Now, I was saying on the program yesterday, Stockinormand Kevin Hinks said, I feel like there's not enough data coming down the line before that next July, late July meeting, where if they're taking the totality of the evidence and the totality of the evidence for the meeting we just had said that they could pause for a bit. Well, I think that's going to be the same data. We only get one more month. I don't think one month of data can really change the totality of what they're looking at that may give them the ability to pause. At least for one more meeting. And that gives them three, four months of catch up, which may be the case. Nearly all FOMC participants expect it will be appropriate to raise interest rates somewhat further by the end of the year, reducing inflation is likely to require a period of below trend growth and some softening in the labor market conditions. You could already argue that's happening though. And maybe it's just the trend that they want to continue without really crashing things. Yeah. And the prepared comments, largely echoed is remarks at his post meeting press conference last week. So if you were in the camp, you were going to get some big surprise here and that maybe Chairman Powell didn't convey to the market what he was trying to convey. There's no correction in the statement coming. That's my interpretation as well. The market trades lower a bit. Not sure why maybe just give back some of the gains because not too many surprises in that statement as we're trading right now at 4420. Yes, we've pulled back about 70 points from the highs we had on Thursday and Friday, but all things considered folks. It's been a one-way trip from where we were on March 13th, just over three months ago from a price tag of about 3850. Yeah, 3839 the lows in the S&P. Let's jump around to some of the fang stocks. We got Apple barely lower today. You make a high of 186. Is that almost that was that last week? Yeah, that was Friday on the open. It's interesting. The daily has a different one, right? 187.50. I got pre-market, but 186.99 was the open on Friday. We're trading a little bit off that price level. You jump over to Microsoft shares. Microsoft's going to open down about two bucks. So FedEx had their numbers last night. We'll get into those FedEx can open down about $7 on their outlook pretty much going forward down about seven bucks to 224. You jump over to UPS, a little bit of a hit as well. I was listening to Bloomberg late last night. Pretty interesting in terms of the comps, in terms of the run that FedEx has had this year, right? Trading from 175 up to 231. But the reason why is because look at what's been happening with FedEx, man, you're trading at 178. You back it up for five years. That's at the doldrums. You back it up on a monthly and you were trading basically at prices coming into the year that you were trading at in 2015 versus UPS trading at 2015 at 104. They've run up dramatically as they had that acceleration in 2020. Now UPS does a lot more business with Amazon as well. FedEx really doesn't do any business. UPS still doing a dramatic part of their business with Amazon trying to diversify a bit. But they live and die on the sword of Amazon, which probably means why they went from 100 to 233 and pulled back to 160. They're trading right now at 174. FedEx going to be off about $7 on their numbers as well this morning. We jump around. Article on CNBC, I was reading this morning talking about target racing to bring next day delivered to customers farther from city centers. I mean, this is the Holy Grail, right? Everybody's trying to do this, of course. And I often talk about, look at that pullback, man. 268 to 132. We are right back to where you came into COVID. The COVID lows of 92 bucks target taking it on the Chinman, and I will say target in very enjoyable experience. I like going in there with Tommy, he plays with the toys, I grab a Starbucks at the front. I got to ditch the toys before we get to the checkout, right? That's the, that's an, I don't, I don't ditch them all. I can't get rid of them all. But what does happen is I'm hyper aware because I'm in there all the time. I'm pulling up price tags of toys on Amazon that I'm in there looking at. And if I'm saving money on Amazon, I'm putting them back and they're not going to be purchased today because they're expensive, man. They are expensive and they have groceries, but they don't have refrigerated in almost any way. Nonetheless, folks, stay tuned. We've got a lot to talk about. We get the chairman coming up at 10. We'll be right back. We have exciting news, Tigers. This June, Tim Ord of the Ord Oracle will be hosting two webinars providing insight into his renowned market timing methodologies. On June 8th, Tim will delve into the S&P 500, teaching sentiment indicators, identifying market bottoms and i-versions and so much more. On June 15th, Tim pivots to the gold market, taking a look at cycle analysis, ratio studies, advanced decline indicators and other important tools for analyzing this sector. Sign up today on tfnn.com. D F N N Educating Investors. Everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence. This mathematical principle is responsible for everything from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market. 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Tommy O'Brien delivers options and equity trades when the markets present them using a combination of fundamentals and technicals. Sign up for Rocket Equities and Options Report today with a 30 day money back guarantee, so you have nothing to risk. For all the details and to start your subscription today, visit the front page of TFNN.com. TFNN Educating Investors. Welcome back, folks. We get the S&P off by 16 points right now, trading at $44.19. Look for that opportunity, that price point in terms of $44.10. The S&P is pretty interesting sometimes how the price levels are so close to the tick, right? If you've got the discipline, man, and listen, that's that's easier said than done, right? To get into trades, to give yourself almost no room sometimes, if that's the price you're looking at. But boy, yesterday's turnaround, you got to a price level. Yesterday at $44.44.75, you had a high pre-market of $44.45. Right, you got within a quarter of a point of that price level and turned around and you're now 25 points below that price level. And we'll see if we can find a bid today going to be interesting. As I said, don't really expect any huge surprises from the chairman, especially after seeing the statement that pretty much aligned with what had been said already. So he's comfortable with what the market is picking up and the market's picking up, man. That the pause might be as long as they can push it. OK, we all know that the chance is out there for them to raise more if they have to, but we'll see if that goes. All right, the submarine saga, right, quite an ordeal. And yeah, hopefully there's some side of optimism, man, some side of hope as time does dwindle, though. But noises were detected in the search for that Titanic sub as oxygen dwindles and they heard banging sounds at 30 minute intervals. I mean, the unfortunate part about this is one of the scenarios going on, right, is that you have some problems, you have an explosion, you have an explosion, whatever it is. And the sub isn't even reachable. If they're making noise, maybe they are down there, maybe they have the ability to find them. What I will say is hindsight's always 20, 20, man. And it's a sad story, no matter what. You got the founder and CEO in there, so it's not like he's shoveling people down to the bottom of the ocean on a boat that he wouldn't jump on himself. But boy, when you read some of this stuff, you see the articles, right? And then in hindsight, something goes wrong and you say maybe they weren't doing enough and that letter that surfaced was the thing that was the most damning, in my opinion, in terms of you had a couple of people leaving the company potentially and then you had the industry professionals in 2018, okay, and this is an article in The New York Times and this is the actual article that was written and it was to the CEO and it was talking about and this is signed by something like, what do they say, 30 members or something like that, industry leaders, deep sea explorers and oceanographers warned in a letter to the chief executive, Stockton Rush, that the company's experimental approach and its decision to forego a traditional assessment could lead to potentially catastrophic problems with the Titanic mission. And in hindsight, of course, it's 20, 20, but boy, when you look at everything, right? You look at the controller and you look about going two and a half miles under the ocean, man. I mean, everyone's an adventurer, but there's a father and a son on there, right? One of the Pakistan, from Pakistan run a big company, one of the biggest companies over there and you know that there's an element of trust there. We're trusting individuals and boy, I think back myself where when I was in college went to Cancun, Mexico and I remember going bungee jumping over a parking lot and there's certain things in life, probably shouldn't have done that, right? Small things, but in the back of your head, you always think like everything's gonna be okay. There's been some really interesting stories about journalists that had went on a couple of different vehicles, right? And there was one, I forget the guy's name, he was talking about that he went down on another type of vehicle and I'm not gonna do the good enough job here of surmising what happened, excuse me, but they got tangled up in the propeller and his description of the moment when it happened, when he says to himself, this can't be real, right? It can't be real. I was sent here to cover the Titanic, now I'm two and a half miles under the water in a vehicle that's stuck there and you come to the realization and he was saying in the interview when he finally realized where he was, what was happening and the predicament that he was in, that it was just a profound sadness that came over him and I don't think enough people, myself included, sometimes take that risk versus the reward and listen, for some adventurers, it's probably worth it, man, but I think in this instance, the risk versus reward was not calculated correctly, we're in the risk business and trading, right? And it was probably a riskier endeavor than the people on the boat or even led to believe or the submarine and it's unfortunate in hindsight, but just trying to remember that as you go through different things in life, right? I think back to the time that I was going bungee jumping and as an older adult now with a child, never would I ever do that, but you're in Cancun, there's alcohol involved, they were literally bungee jumping over a parking lot. Why would you ever do that, right? But you have this thing in the back of your head, it says, well, all the people are doing it, everyone's doing it, they wouldn't do it if they thought that somebody would die. And there's a lot of times that happens and just be able to trust yourself in those moments because this is one instance, unfortunately, this is a tough deal, man, looking at that, you got a father's son on there, you got a businessman, you got the founder of the company, et cetera, but boy, looking at some of these articles, looking at some of the letters that were written and some of the interviews that they had given, I mean, it's a homemade submarine, man, going down two and a half miles to the bottom of the sea. And what they talked about was that that guy that got out, I think it was ABC News or CBS News, they sent a second sub down, they had a backup, there's no backup for them. So there's all these things that could have been done, and so that's where that goes in, hindsight, of course, and then hopefully they get found, man, definitely encouraging hope that they got some sounds down there because it didn't seem like they had much of a chance even to be found, so maybe something. But yeah, sad deal and be willing to listen to yourself, man, I don't just talk about it for the sadness, for the tantalizing details, I'm sure CNN, it's quite a story, and the sad stories unfortunately get most headlines and the most eyeballs on news, so I'm sure CNN, cable TV, et cetera, but I talk about it because you think about it and whether it's you, whether it's your children, making decisions like that and be willing to say no, man, sometimes if there's risk, because I don't think a lot of people really evaluate some of those risks, and I've done it myself, for sure, and that's why I talk about it, because I think about that stuff, decisions you made in the past, and there's not many. Be young, be adventurous, go out there, take risks, it's okay, but make sure you're taking risks for the right reason and you understand them because I think back to that one of going bungee jumping over a parking lot in Cancun, probably one of the stupidest decisions in my life were basically no joy, and it was not a well-run operation, I'm sure, in Cancun, spring break, 1999, something like that, jumping over a parking lot, so. All right, let's jump around, see what else we have going on. We jump back to the stocks with earnings, FedEx sitting at about 224, down about seven bucks on there, now let's look at the S&P down about 11 right now, we check back to that gold contract, gold, 1939, we check out the dollar index right now with Chairman Powell coming up in 34 minutes, dollar at 102.60, we jump over to the two-year, two-year yield, we got the two-year down about two ticks right now, 103, you jump over to that 10-year, and the 10-year was sitting at about 3.7, let's see where we're sitting at right now. On the yield curve, we have the 10-year sitting at 3.76, and we got the two-year at 4.73, how about that one, right, 4.73 for the two-year, some amazing deals on CDs, man, and that might go away, so there is some risk there in terms of, if you're thinking about putting yourself in a CD, man, don't just think you can roll out 12-month CDs for an eternity, because things could change over the next year or two, think about your duration, maybe try and set that duration out, whether you're going two-year ladder, five-year ladder, 10-year, push those numbers out, because we might be seeing those numbers drop at least over the next years. We're not going back to zero, in my opinion, but it's a new regime. Stay tuned, folks, we're coming back for the open. Building wealth trading in the stock market seems impossible to most people. They think it's too volatile and risky. 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For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. Welcome back, folks. We have markets open. You got the S&P slides a bit. We're off by 18 points right now, trading at 44.16. You get the Dow of 137 points, 34,224. And you got the Russell right now, negative by 11 Nasdaq 100 trading down about 70 points. Let's see how FedEx is trading on their numbers, a little bit of a lift, only down about 2.6% right now. As I said, UPS, a far different company, but still down off about 1.8% right now. We see how the big dogs are trading. Apple shares catch a lift. Apple flat on the session right now, Microsoft shares down about six tenths. Google shares down six tenths as well. We jump over to Facebook shares. Meta down three tenths percent right now. Tesla, look at Tesla, man. Up a quarter percent for Tesla pushes 279 in the pre-market. Look at this run, man. Whew. You talk about a run, 151 to 275. You're up almost 100%. Up almost 100% in less than two months. Crazy. No other word to describe it, man, crazy. All right, what else we got pulled up? How about money funds? 5.5 trillion, how about that one, man? Money funds with record 5.5 trillion. See the case for the pile to grow. Funds now have tools to extend maturities, pick up extra yield out there. Money market industry, one of the biggest winners on Wall Street as the Fed is high rates. And yeah, you talk about the numbers, man. Let's just get down to it. So, and this is the, there's a money fund symposium, the marquee annual event for a business that has seen assets grow by some a trillion dollars in the past year to a record 5.5 trillion. And look at the run up, right? And you're talking about here, the effective funds rate is in the red, okay? And the money assets are in the black. So what's interesting here is that you have the money funds at zero from basically 2010 to 2018, okay? And yeah, they're, you know, they didn't get above a trillion until the Fed started trying to hike into the end of 2018. What's interesting is when COVID hit, the rates dropped to zero, but people still flooded to safety and cash. But then rates took off and they added another trillion dollars onto the cash pile that they had in there. And you're sitting at 5.5 trillion dollars, man, which is quite a number. The key is that the money funds now have a range of higher yielding assets to shift into, led by T bills after the resolution of the debt ceiling, but they also have much more clarity around the Fed's path. So they have less need to hide out in overnight markets where they still have almost 2 trillion stashed. The money market industry has to be feeling quite good at the moment. This is the head of US rate strategy at Bank of America. Assets are up a lot, supply is increasing rapidly and money funds now have a greater ability to express clear views of the market. Yeah, there's a lot of money, man, to say the least. It's gonna be interesting to see how that affects the market going forward. And this one will be interesting one as well. From the journal over here I was reading this morning. So you get the Supreme Court with a few big cases coming down. You got affirmative action there. You have Biden student loans. You got one more too. I was reading an article yesterday. So some big decisions are looming. One of them affirmative action in terms of just how it plays into companies. You got a lot of companies that have goals, racial goals for diversity, et cetera. And it's gonna be interesting to see how that plays out. You got many employers, including Salesforce, more Merck and PaintMaker PPG industry, say they'll maintain existing corporate goals to broaden employee representation regardless of the court's ruling. The uncertainty leaves employers in a bind as they try to address the possibility of discrimination lawsuits from supporters and detractors of their initiatives. So you're gonna see that one play out, man. If that happens in the court, whether regardless of what you feel on the issue or not, in terms of the corporate structure of things, that is going to play out if the Supreme Court reverses affirmative action. We're not gonna get into that hot topic, man. Diversity is a great thing. I think we all agree on that. What I will say is I have many friends. I have great friends, Asian friends who really have a hard time. I know that's the other side of this affirmative action argument, right? Man, they got a tough deal. If you're Asian because you got some real competition and many times you're not getting in because of those types of affirmative action and so forth, yeah. All right, what else we got? Let's jump around. We're gonna be talking to our man, Teddy Cakesack, coming up after the break. We'll talk some forex, but we'll take a look at the dollar. As we jump around before that, you get the dollar index right now, 102.63. Pretty much where we started the program at. No real movement on the dollar. We got Chairman Powell coming up in 24 minutes. We got the tenure at about 113 right now. Let's check back in on that gold contract that's been moving a lot. Gold, down about eight bucks at 19.39 right now. We check out silver. Look at silver, man, from 24 down to 22.83. We pull back silver on a daily, off of the highs of 20. Let's see where we are, Fibonacci-wise. Yeah, below the 50%, we're coming back into these lows of recent last month. That low, 22.78. Look at that. What did we just hit? 22.80 within two pennies. Two pennies. Let's see where gold is in that same. That low back in May, gold. Look at this, 19.39. And we just hit 19.36.20. Yeah, and we had some volume in gold, man. Almost 250,000 contracts down there. You just did 260 when we got down to 19.36. A few days ago, and the day is young. We'll see where we go. But those are some big numbers, for sure. All right, what else we got? Let's talk a little bit of China, geopolitics. Biden's calling China, China's Xi a dictator, and China, not happy with that. What happened to things getting better with China? Right, now these headlines, they're pretty tantalizing, man, does it get any worse than calling Xi a dictator and Xi kind of striking back. President's comments of California fundraiser follow a diplomatic effort to halt deteriorating relations. Seems like that could be reversing pretty quickly. Wasn't the Secretary of State blinking just over there trying to make amends and things didn't go well there? It seems like things are ratcheting up now using the word dictator. Not usually the way you wanna ease things. So be careful on that front as well. All right, what else we got? Well, it's just articles I've been reading this morning talking about the journal. An interesting one out here in the journal, talking about, I referenced this earlier in the show, forget the Fed focused on the economy. It's easy to get caught up on whether the Fed's gonna hike interest rates, but it's time to step back. Only railers should investors care about what the Fed says, and even what it does at its meeting. What really matters for long-term returns is getting the direction for travel right and when, and that comes from the economy, where the Fed's fine-tuning misses the point. Investors are already looking further ahead rather than preparing for the still higher interest rates. Markets are well along in pricing an economy with lower but fairly sticky inflation, higher for longer rates, and continued growth. Stocks are up, yields are broadly stable at what used to count as a high level and risk premiums on junk bonds are falling fast. These all point in the same direction and it's a bullish one, right? It is, I think we're gonna have a new normal. And I'm not sure what that new normal is gonna be. Get some advice from the experts. You might find that it's not so impossible after all. For daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices, selective stocks, and commodities, subscribe to the opening call newsletter at tfnn.com. The opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman, creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman Wave. The Chapman Wave up-down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns, finding the peaks and valleys and stock prices. And get the opening call newsletter by Basil Chapman and your inbox every day. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money-back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. tfnn.com, educating investors. The Gold Report. As a precious metal, gold is still king. 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You hit the newsletter tab, you hit Subscribe. It's $97 for the month, folks. You get a 30-day money back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. When you sign up, you also gain access to a couple of archived webinars. Teddy just did one in April talking about the forecast for the webinar, but things may be changing as we got a new Fed regime with pausing slash skipping. Teddy Kegsat, good morning. Good morning, Tommy. So let's talk a little bit of Fed, man. We know you've been talking about hikes, and I was surprised, especially by kind of just the general verbiage. We got the chairman's remarks already out this morning. He's talking in 17 minutes in front of Congress as well, but kind of surprised with even the language that he used. They're trying to sound hawkish. I'm not sure I believe it. What do you think of the Fed action, man, as they pause? I'm very surprised. Absolutely surprised that they did. I thought that they would be going for rate hikes for at least another few sessions before they put a pause on. Especially because the economic data I don't think is reflecting what they really want as far as their goals yet. I don't think they remotely achieve what they're trying to do, at least what they said they were trying to do. So yeah, I'm definitely very surprised that they have stopped their rate hikes. I think we still have more to come. This whole pausing and now even potential easing talk that's going on I think is a little bit of a, you know, getting ahead of ourselves, if you will. So we'll see what happens with the pause. Let's see how the economic data comes out over the next couple of months. I really don't think that over the next couple of months these numbers are going to trend enough in the right direction to warrant them staying on a pausing basis and not go back to a hawkish outlook. Yeah, and it would seem like, I mean, we all know they got a long way to go. That's for sure, man. And I think they're getting a little hopeful, in my opinion, in terms of where we go and maybe they give it a few months. I don't know how they come back. What do you think about the next meeting? And I know we're just not throwing darts here, but nobody really knows what's going to happen. But it's interesting that if they're willing to pause right now, right, by July 28th in terms of that much data that really is going to change things. I find it, you know, the next few months, yeah, you can see some action, I'm sure, as the numbers plow in. But even when I'm just looking at July, I'm like, well, if they're there right now, man, what's going to happen in July that could be so dramatic? You know, you get a few months of data persist. I think it might be undeniable. But if they're willing to go right now, I just don't see how things change with July. What do you think about, you know, sure, well, I think one month, the only way you're going to probably see them go back to a hawkish stance right away in the next meeting would be, let's say unemployment for July comes out, you know, in a couple of weeks, it really comes out good, meaning that unemployment goes down to an extreme degree, you know, maybe where it goes back to the levels where it was like two, three months. I don't know exactly what the amount of that, of a drop would have to be, but something like that would go against what you do, so that would be a big one. And then I think you're going to have also your other inflationary numbers too, like you got to look at what's going on in the EU and the UK, you know, they're imploding because of inflation, you know, and that's going to be reflective in our markets as well. And I think that especially you have to watch the transports, you know, and things like that. I mean, especially if unemployment does go down extremely sharply, and then if you do see at least not necessarily a flattening, of these numbers, you know, like with CPI and PPI, then I think, yeah, absolutely, they could jump back on the hawkish stance, maybe not in July, but they might start leaning towards saying, hey, if these numbers start trending back up, that we will be going back on the hawkish stance. You know, so I think that's in a one to three month period, that's how you can look at it. Nice, yeah. Hey, we have a question now. We got a caller on the hour, right? Let's jump over. We got Jeff from New Jersey and they got a question for you, Teddy, Jeff, good morning. Good morning. Thanks for taking my call. Great, that was my question for Teddy. Is it possible to find arbitrage opportunities between the FX cash market and futures market? Yeah, so what you're talking about there is like when you're trading premium at a discount or at okay, like for instance, if you're talking about trying to pull that kind of ARB off, you have to have first of all, really good liquidity and really good data feeds. That is very, very key. So in order to pull it off to you got to look at if you're going to try and do that, you have to make sure that you're trading the front month future for sure. And you got to be careful around the roll over months. So I would say that especially like when you have, you know, your role or your expectations for those contracts would be March, June, September, and December. So during those four months or especially the last week of the month prior to that, I'd be very careful trying to pull off an arbitrage between the cash market and the futures because you have a lot of spread rollovers which will cause a price differential where it's going to really scramble that trade up. But there is like for instance, when it comes to numbers especially, if you have a lead in one, you can lay off in the other. So I would say when you have but now once again that gets back to your liquidity, if you don't have a very solid connection, you're going to be behind the curve or your execution is not going to come off that well in either the futures or in the cash market especially. So that's kind of because they catch up with each other so quickly. Yeah, that's exactly what it is. I mean to really pull off that trade successfully, you're looking more at an institutional type of trading environment where you really, really, really have to have direct market access. So if you don't have those components, I'm just going to be honest with you, it's going to be very rough to try and pull off that kind of a trade. Does it exist? Absolutely. Just the ability to pull off consistently those trades that's going to be very, very difficult. But it does exist. Especially like you can do it for both the S&Ps, you can do it for the bonds, you can do it for the currencies. That trade does exist. Usually like what you have to do is look at the trend premium. For instance, if your market's trending higher, for instance, whether it's a euro, pound, whatever versus whatever currency and that futures. If you see one that really, really jumps and you're going to probably see it more in the cash and the futures, that would be a situation where you can sometimes catch that lag and that arc. So those are the situations where if you're going to look for that trade, those are the moments where you have to be there. Those are your most highest probability of having those situations and being able to execute. So it's something that on a day-to-day basis hour in by hour out it's going to be a very tough trade and I would advise against it though just to be straight. It sounds like for the retail trader if you notice a jump in the cash market go look at the futures market if it hasn't jumped yet. Maybe it's about to. Remember, if you're trying to do that trade you're looking for a scalp that's not something that's going to hang on very long, especially with the futures because you have the spreads. You have to take that into account. Jeff, I think if you can I'm not put words, but I think what Teddy is saying as well is the technology that you need and it's almost something that in a lot of places if it was that simple though Jeff wouldn't computers almost be not computers but if it was that simple where cash is moving and then you just get ahead of the futures isn't that way and with almost this is where AI and computers are almost starting to take over to eliminate a lot of those Arab opportunities. Is that true? That's why I was asking is that I figured the futures in the cash market must be so tightly bound and computers are so fast and there's so many traders You might be able to, Jeff, like Teddy was saying but I think that was a great answer, Teddy because man, you just got to be so fast nowadays with computers, Jeff. I'd be careful. Okay, great. Thanks guys. Thanks for the call. Teddy, can you stick around for one more segment, alright? Let's look at some of the levels and some of the currencies. We'll be right back folks. Stay tuned. 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Subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today TFNN.com Educating Investors I just want to jump right into it maybe we could talk a little bit of yen because I know the yen is doing some stuff gold really getting hit. What do you think of the yen action as we push some lofty levels here I'm pulling up the chart as we speak as we're trading at 142.24 you've talked to us I mean it's interesting when I look at the dollar next teddy versus something like the yen which boy you got a trend man we're making new recent highs today at 142.25 you got gold pulling back recently as usually could be the case is that yen trades higher. Yes well we have new new highs coming today and that's for sure already which is nice I like the trend you know I mean even with the Fed on pause I think that your overall you have strength in the US dollar yen I'm a buy break forecast right now for this market for a while I see no reason to think that the trend would start to become very bearish for they don't see any reason why it would for and there's no variables fundamental or technical that I can see coming about I really do like the the lows that we set a couple few weeks ago I think that's a very good support base for the US dollar yen even if we have a pullback I think you're going to find it hard to fall below that area and I like I like higher move highs over the next not just few sessions but over the next few weeks for the US dollar yen. Nice can't deny the trend man 142.26 for sure and that price level looks at about 139 is that where you look in the end about where it was beginning to try to look for support I would say the lowest I would see them getting down to be about 138 half you know but yeah around 139 even I think you have a very good support level there. Okay nice well Teddy I appreciate it as always man we appreciate the education as always and we look forward to talking next week man alright sounds good take care Tommy sorry say that again I lost you for a second Teddy. Oh I know I just said I said thank you I said thank you I'll see you next week I appreciate this I apologize my earphone is having a few problems today but thank you as always for the education folks check out the Tiger 4x report. Teddy puts out a great report every Monday we talk to him every Wednesday at 40 past the hour and yeah you talk about currencies man driving so much of what's going on currencies yields the market folks thanks so much for starting a trading day off with me stay tuned we got our man Basel Chapman coming up live and you got Chairman Powell as well so it should be an interesting hour we got live programming back folks have a great one