 Good day, fellow investors. Today I want to give you an update on what's going on with gold and why are prices rising despite higher interest rates. I want to discuss what can happen to gold in the short, medium and long term and then I want to always discuss what are the opportunities to hedge ourselves with gold from whatever can happen. So let's start. Gold prices in the last 12 months have increased about 7-8% but are on an upward trend. This wasn't expected because higher interest rates make assets that have yields much more attractive than gold because gold is a non-yielding asset. So why is gold up? That is for a few reasons. Let's start by discussing them one by one. The most recent reason for gold being higher is that the president hired some hardliners in his staff which might even if North Korea has eased a bit which might increase tensions with Iran. So that's one but that I hope is just news noise. Some other fundamental reasons are behind people like Ray Dalio or John Paulson getting more and more into gold now as a hedge for what might happen. Higher interest rates don't only mean higher yields on bonds and similar investments. Higher interest rates also mean higher interest payments, higher interest costs, higher debt burden on all of those that are indebted. So we have to see how will that evolve with higher interest rates. Will the Fed manage to make the economy go through a soft landing and we won't see a recession or we will see a global recession from the overburdened companies, consumers, private consumers, countries whatever that will lead into a more difficult recession, difficult deleveraging parts when gold would be the safe heaven where to run to. The first thing is that global demand for US debt is waning down. So it has been around 43-44% of total US debt and now has fallen over the last two years to 38.25. This means that people around the globe have less faith in US debt despite the higher interest rates. However, those higher interest rates make it much more difficult for consumers to repay their loans and we have seen consumer stress increasing. Delinquency rates on credit card increased from 3% a few years ago to 5.8 which is huge. Auto loans increased from just about 3% they crossed now 4% delinquency rates which is a very very bad signal for what might happen and again signals the late part of the economic cycle and that we might be close to a recession. And if there is a recession in the next 6, 12, 1 year, 2 years what will be the medicine the politicians and central banks have for it? Well as always it will probably be more monetary easing, money printing, helicopter money, buying bonds, buying assets, helping those bailing out those who go bankrupt and the similar stuff that we have seen going on over the last 10 years. So if that happens the first thing is that gold will be seen as a protective asset during the turmoil and then later it will be rebalanced again to the amount of money in the environment. From 2002 to 2012 gold went from 200 to 1800 then it dropped as things normalized a bit. Now we are at 1300 if the Federal Reserve, Central European Bank, Bank of Japan continue to print money and increase their money printing we might see gold at much much much higher levels. That's the long term. The medium term we will see how this balances out some big players like Ray Dalio have started positioning themselves already a bit more into gold so they are always positioned but they rebalance this in relation to the risks which means that they see less risk now that gold has started to go higher even with higher interest rates so that's very interesting to follow and there isn't such a huge market for gold. Gold has a limited supply which makes it very very attractive and it's very very possible to see high spikes in it therefore each portfolio has to be exposed to gold even if some might not agree like Warren Buffett let me use Dalio to explain you why Warren Buffett is wrong and why everybody should own gold. I think gold should be a part of everybody's portfolio to some degree because it diversifies the portfolio it is the alternative money we have a situation now where when you have too much debt too much debt leads to the printing of money to make it easier to service so all of those things mean that some portion should be in gold. Warren Buffett won't touch gold. You think he's wrong? Clearly you must. I think he's making a big mistake. Gold is like cash it's an alternative version of cash so over long term it's not the best investment over long term it's you know a little bit better than cash over long term. It is as however when you're having a monetary crisis when you have a fiat monetary system and you have the need for money that is a promise to deliver money. So if you look at each of those devaluations that have taken place each of what March 1933 President Roosevelt closes the banks and then opens them and says you can get your money and then they broke the link with gold and so the history over that period of time is that money can be produced gold is somewhat limited it's an effective it's an alternative that should be part of everybody's portfolio but not in a big way. Thank you Ray. Let's go back to the debt and see how that debt evolved over the last 40 years. When I was born in 1983 the total debt in the US was just one tenth of what it is now and if we compare the total debt now with 2008 it is 25 percent higher. This means that the debt burden has been just increasing increasing and increasing because the economy is fueled by it and there is nothing else that can lead to economic growth than debt. So the scenarios are short term we might see more positioning in gold from the big players which might slowly drive the price higher. Something can always happen it can drop like a rock that's always a risk but this is what's going on. Big players are shortly positioning themselves into gold. In the medium term if there is a recession if there is market turmoil then gold might spike even more. If in the long term people lose faith in fiat currencies and rush to gold then it might explode just like the bitcoin did in the last year. So those are the scenarios for gold. Let's see how you can be hedged for them. There are three ways you can hedge yourself you can own physical gold or silver you can own a physical gold ETF and you can own gold miners each one of those has own benefits and disadvantages. I want to focus on gold miners and discuss their not so perfect correlation with gold. As we have seen before gold is up 8% but the gold miners ETF is down 4% over the last year and you can see that the gold miners ETF over the five-year period has been extremely volatile. It's still down 41% but is up more than 100% from the lows of the end of 2015. So you have to see also perhaps the best way to expose yourself to gold is to have a mixture of all those positions. Physical gold as the safety ETF gold as the rebalancing liquidity and gold miners as the crazy play on gold if gold prices explode gold gold mining margins would also explode so you want to own good gold miners in good jurisdictions that give you the safety the legal safety of the huge margins they might have if gold prices explode. We'll continue to discuss gold hedges silver hedges on this channel so consider subscribing if you are into that but every investor should have a gold and silver hedge so definitely should subscribe to this channel. Thank you for watching looking forward to your comments and I'll see you in the next video.