 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey, guys. Good morning, everybody. Welcome to another edition of the Access of Trader.com week and update show. Hope everybody is doing amazing. 80 degrees. It's October. It's October the 28th. It's 80 degrees here in New Jersey, Northeast. Incredible, right? Absolutely incredible. We're going to be remembering this day for the next eight months when we eventually go to hell in a handbasket and remake Frozen Part 3 when it's the high of 10 degrees. So hopefully everybody enjoys the beautiful weather. If you are bringing you to the channel or if you are just getting a lot of value of our daily content, the only thing we ask is, you know, hit a like, hit a like, subscribe to the channel, share it with your friends, tell a friend, tell a friend, right? All that good stuff, and we will try to continue to give you unbiased, when I say we, I try to give you unbiased a potential of technical analysis for both ways. Crazy market, right? Absolutely crazy market. If you've been following along just for just even the last couple of weeks, you see pretty much every level that we talked about on the Nasdaq 100 or the QQQ pretty much broke down, right? It broke down. Again, you still have an incredible amount of violence and random acts of terror and all that good stuff from all that bad stuff. I actually should say from both sides, you have gold surging, you have oil surging, hell, you have Bitcoin surging. I have no idea what that's all about. But okay, that's cool as well. But overall equities are down. Okay, last week, we'll just use the Nasdaq 100 as a barometer. Last week, the Nasdaq was down 3.5%. What do they do for an encore? Well, they were down another 2.6%. So you're talking about, you're talking about a 6% move in two weeks on the QQQs. That's not a good thing, right? That's not a good thing. And we've lost in the process some key levels along the way. The problem is I keep on hearing the same rhetoric and again, I understand where it's coming from, right? I get it. But when I hear the Nasdaq is oversold, I just don't get it. Again, I'm not the smartest person in the world, not the sharpest tool in the shed. But if the Nasdaq as a Friday's close is still up 29.6% for the year, how can we use the word oversold, right? Is it oversold for a 48-hour period? Yeah, 6%, right? 6% in a two-week decline. 6% is a pretty big nut to crack over the last two weeks. But oversold, I think we're using the wrong word. Now, officially, they use the word, we are back into, what was the word that you're using? Correction, right? We're not in the bear market, guys. Don't say that because people with heads will explode. We're in correction territory right now, right? I think it was an X amount of percentage from the top. It's like the word correction, right? The word correction, it's like your friends set you up with a person on a blind date. You go on a date, you don't find a person appealing or attractive or whatever the case would be. And they ask you your opinion and say, hey, what do you think of her? What do you think of her? What do you think of him? Did you like it? Did you kick it off? And you turn around and go, well, they had a really nice personality, right? They were very sweet. We all know what the undertones are here. The market is ugly, right? The market is ugly right now. You are getting really aggressive price action all across the board from all the indexes you still have. And if you've been watching this video, you kind of see what we've been talking about for months now. You still see banks are very weak, right? You know, you have banks that are very weak. You have Bank of America, JP Morgan. Look at these charts, right? Look at these charts. They may be just really, really bad charts. City bank, take whatever you want. You have retailers, right? Just getting absolutely smoked. This is a weekly view. This is a weekly view of Target. This is a weekly view of Waller who is actually holding up fairly well. But if you look at the rest of them, Coles, Dollar Tree, all the rest of them, just terrible looking charts. So what does that say, right? That says that retail, of course, does not want to spend money. They're just not separating themselves from the cash. And then you put in the equation of inflation, again, a $200,000 house five years ago is the same payment as you'd be making for a $400,000 house. So wages are down, inflation is up, prices are up, oil is up, gold is up, everything is up, your blood pressure is up. The only thing that's not up is your portfolio. And that's exactly where we start the day. Let's look at the technical view, right? That's all we do, we start, okay? And we want to show you getting into the S&P 500 here why this is an issue going into today's day. So if you guys remember the whole, come back, back test, whatever the color you want to call it, it all started with the NASDAQ 100 losing the 50-day moving average. Again, if you were watching this video, every level that I highlighted got broken down, you had the level here, $366,000, $359,000, $351,000, that was the big one. You guys remember that $351,000 that held three times finally broke and now we find ourselves $345,000, right? We find ourselves $345,000 going into Friday. And I keep on hearing another thing, besides that the market is oversold, I keep on hearing another thing, well, we should have a rally. I'm not saying we shouldn't, apps again, after a 6% move in the NASDAQ in two weeks, well, yeah, it's inevitable we get a multiple-day rally. The problem is people are looking at it all wrong. The rallies don't start on gap ups. You're not going to get a dead cab bounce on gap ups. It's not possible because, again, when you're getting gap ups, you're getting constantly rejected into supply. This has been happening since the NASDAQ has lost a 50-day moving average. So the question was going into Amazon's earnings, well, was Amazon going to save the market? And my whole thing was it could have, right? It absolutely could have if the market got a washout first. And that's kind of where we'd start the video today and kind of get you prepared for next week. Do I think at some point this week, we are going to have an aggressive two 300-point rally on the Qs? I do. At some point this week or the next two weeks, we should have. It's just, again, it's the probability of, again, a 6% move in two weeks. It's just, again, nothing goes straight down. The problem is we can't have it on a gap up. What we need to see Monday or Tuesday is a gap down, a very aggressive gap down. Test this level here. This level here is the 200-day SMA on the Qs. That's the 339, 340 level on the Qs. This is the area that the market needs to have that throw the baby out with the bathwater. I don't want to be in the market anymore. Take my stock at any price. Just leave me the hell alone. F this market and everybody else in it. That's supposed to be the open. We need to see a violent crescendo of volume bar at the bottom of the range. If that does happen, if that absolutely does happen, I do believe there will be a dead cat bounce and potential multiple day run into at some point. At some point. But we have to test the 200-day moving average first. Guys, there's no possible way we can get a significant reversal coming out of air. Certain levels, especially a huge level like this, the 200-day moving average on the QQQs, it needs to be tested. It needs to hold and needs to start grinding back. Then at only then we have probably a two, three, four hundred dollar, a 300-point, maybe one day, maybe two-day rally. But honestly, before that happens, the market continues to be sold into any type of strength. All you have to do is kind of watch the video for the last three, four days. We saw that every single gap up got destroyed and every single stock that lost the previous day's range got destroyed. And again, case in point, if you've been watching along the way, the video has been an absolute monster for us. Every level has been confirmed and it's very, very close to breaking down again. Tesla has been an absolute monster for us, right? Absolute monster for us. Every level has gotten destroyed. Every level. We saw even the macro level here at 212 and now it's building a nice, comfortable home below the 200-day moving average. That's not good. If you think below the 50-day moving average is bearish. Well, what the hell do you think the below the 200-day is? It's super duper bearish. And now Tesla doesn't have a catalyst, right? The catalyst is gone. The Cybertruck is coming on, blah, blah, blah. Their earnings came out. They didn't like it. The people have spoken. It's underneath the 200-day moving average. Now the question is, does it last Monday's low? And if it does test last Monday's low and you can see another string of lower highs. That's been the theme of every single stock that we've been talking about that's potentially breaking down or has broken down. That's been the common in there. If you keep on no matter how strong they look like in the morning, they continuously go lower. High, lower high, lower high, lower high. I'm watching Tesla for last week's lows, right? If Tesla starts losing last week's lows, guys, I think we do see the 190s, maybe even the mid-180s. So we definitely have to keep an eye on that just to kind of go back to the video. And the video, again, just cannot rally. Just absolutely cannot rally. Had this massive move on Thursday, which was awesome for us inside day on Friday. And if this thing starts losing last week's lows, then yeah, I do think the video could see 387, 392 for a potential move. Look at Apple, right? Look at Apple here. The only thing that's saving Apple is at least it has a catalyst. Again, it's coming out with earnings. The problem is it's below the 200-day moving average. Obviously, if they have come out with good earnings, it's going to reclaim that back and start rallying. But boy, oh, boy, it's below the 200-day moving average as well. That's not good. Amazon had a nice quarter, right? Had an absolute nice quarter. It gapped up. And yes, again, this is kind of what we talked about. Don't buy into strength on markets that are below supply. Because look what happens, right? Even Amazon that had good earnings got rejected at the top of supply. So that is the theme. Any gap up is going to be rejected. Even if stocks that are coming out with good earnings, or at least good perceived earnings, and they're getting rejected, well, what do you think is going to happen to your random stock that you think is going to go higher? Right? Same thing. Even Netflix that had a good quarter, look what they did to it, right? Look what they did to this thing. They lost the five-day, lost the 50-day, and traded down to the 100-day moving average. This is kind of a brawler. If a stock that had actually good earnings starts losing technical damage, well, what the hell is that mean for the rest of the stocks that have absolutely no life or hanging on to dear life on their own? So again, the market is in a very, very delicate situation. There's a lot of stocks that are breaking down this week. I'm obviously watching the video this week. I'm obviously watching Tesla this week. We need that crescendo, guys. We absolutely need that crescendo. I think every bull and every bearer could agree. We need that savage massive volume bar at the bottom of the channel here at $339,000, $340,000. That's the area. If you want to take a stab at it for a potential big bounce, that's the area, right? That's the absolute area, $339,000, $340,000 on the Qs, because if they do hold, I do believe we can get a multiple-day run, but it has to get there first, and before it gets there, we're obviously going to continue to take advantage of the downside shadows. Look at the SPY, right? Remember how the Qs started getting crushed off the 50-day moving average? Well, look at the SPYs, right? Look at the SPYs. They are well below the 200-day moving average. I mean, this is a bad, bad situation. If you are a permable, I get it. A lot of you guys are brand new to trading, and this might sound very, very harsh. It's not. Again, I'm not a bull. I'm not a bear. I'm an opportunist. I'm doing this going on my 25th year. Yeah, everybody loves the bull market, right? But we don't need one. That's the bottom line as professional traders. We go where the price action goes. Does everybody feel a lot better as the world? Feel like a better place, happier place when the market is ripping every single day? 100%. We love it as well. There's more liquidity. There's more organic moves. And speaking of that, did you guys notice on Friday there was a whole lot of freakiness going on? If you guys saw it, there were crazy wicks all over the place, right? For example, I trade Tesla every single day. It shows that the high of the day on Tesla was on one platform. It showed me it was 214.60, and the low was 203. Now I look at my e-signal. It shows here 212 was the high of the day, and 205 was the low. 205.77 was low-day. So you had a completely market inefficiency breakdown on Friday. I couldn't trust any of the prices on Friday. There were wicks all over the place, and I'm sure you guys seen it. We saw stocks just moving up in dollars just randomly every 10, 15 seconds. Really, really scary. I'm not sure what the news was, but I have to assume, I have to assume there's some sort of data dissemination issue that was happening on Friday, because boy, oh boy, if you can't trust your data, right? If we believe in technical analysis, if you can't trust your data, how can you possibly trade? How can you put your money on the line with a lot of certainty and conviction? That was a big problem, so hopefully Monday we will get back to normal. But the moral of the story is, guys, again, the NASDAQ is still up 29.6% for the year. We are not oversold, okay? We're not, okay? It feels that way, but we're not. The main key, again, write this level down, guys, going into this week, that balance from 339, 340 level on the queues is going to be a big area. I think the bulls will defend the first time, especially on the 200-day moving average. That's your tradeable bottom, right? If you're looking for a tradeable bottom, that's the tradeable bottom on the 200-day moving average on the queues. Other than that, guys, take it one day at a time, one trade at a time. You don't need to trade every single day. You don't need to look for social media for advice or opinion. Just look at the charts. The same data I have, you have, and everybody else has. The only question is, do you believe in what you see? If the answer is no, then there's going to be a little bit of a problem that you're going forward in your trading career. Guys, trust the market. Trust the charts. In God's help, I will see you all on Monday. Take care, everybody.