 Okay, very good morning to you. It is Tuesday the 12th of November. I hope everything is going well for you Going to talk about a couple different things here in the briefing an update on the British Pound Following the information we had yesterday that caused a decent 1% appreciation in the pound against the dollar We're also going to have a look at how hedge funds are positioning themselves for future potential upside in WTI crude Going to have an update as well of what we are looking for from Donald Trump Who speaks at the New York Economic Club later on today at 5 p.m. London time that'll be 11 a.m. New York? And then there's a couple of data points to look out for today in addition to a lot of Central Bank speak coming from the Fed and the ECB as well starting off though going to jump straight in on the The British Pound and Cable. We've just seen a bit of an extended move here That looked a little bit more technical than anything. You've just had literally as I've just started the brief a quick 10-pip dip there As far as I'm aware there hasn't been any new headlines that have come out that I've seen on the news feeds in the last 30 seconds Or so, but the pound was already under a bit of pressure I'm just having a look here on the 30 minute chart just to explain a couple of different things This was obviously the forage comment when it came out yesterday The fact that his party have pulled out of 317 conservative led or held seats in a bid to prevent opponents blocking Brexit Forage a week ago had promised to filled 600 candidates if you remember unless Johnson went for no deal Brexit So his party now said they'll concentrate their total effort into all of the seats that are held by the Labour Party Essentially We'll come back to that in a moment, but the initial interpretation of that was a net positive for Boris Just to give you an idea bookmakers now suggest that this is going to be an easier route for Boris to get a majority in Parliament Betway now have a 66% chance of Boris getting a majority up about 11 percentage points from prior to the comments coming from Forage yesterday. However, we've had a bit of a pullback on that move. So just having a look here on the 30 minute Couple of points of technical interest on both Different time frames. So looking on the 30 minute You got those initial lows that we're printing back towards the end of last week on the 7th So trigger point you can see there a run through that 2850 Contributing to that last little dip that we just saw was likely stops just getting run People just playing that move here that that would be the immediate kind of near-term support But that giving way and just coming down to quite an obvious target point here You can see from both Where we were trading on the 8th. So the end of last week and also on that initial move up yesterday morning Providing a bit of a platform at the exact same point at around 128 35 So just a little blip down on that fast money moved around that area. Also, that's 128 35 in the futures I was just having a look technically and I already had marked up on a slightly longer time frame I know Sam will look at this himself in more detail, but you've got that descending trend line from around the beginning of month 1st of November it was tested on the 6th and 7th and held and just keeping an eye on that if we go further forward into the day Whether that would come in quite nicely with around the 128 and also the s1 on the day as well as some of the previous days The trend line coming in from the 11th When the price was moving up given the the forage comment with that also that's coincided with that previous more short-term Chart that we were just looking at but drawing out this area here from yesterday on a 120 time frame That does start to encapsulate some of the lower level of support that we were seeing back in late October time So as I put the rectangle here the ellipses signify Areas of where the market responded could good technical points, but the rectangle a strong area of support I feel for cable in the intraday environment Jumping back though into the news because I know Sam's gonna look at these things in more more detail As I mentioned Nigel Frage won't fight Tories an election boost for Johnson that's still getting quite a lot of airplay this morning His Brexit party though will still run in seats held by the opposition Labour Party Opening up the possibility that he could be a kingmaker With just a few seats in a hung parliament now that word is quite synonymous with UK general elections This is where you kind of get at the moment in the current guys of the 2017 election the DUP Is quite a kingmaker a small political outfit in regard to its overall representation of number of seats But the point being is that the Conservatives under Theresa May needed them in order to govern with a working majority so the idea here could be that forage could secure a couple of Labour seats which would mean that If we're in a tight situation of a hung parliament then could he then be forming some kind of Collaboration with the Conservative Party which would be I would say a bad case for the pound Because that would heighten then his ability to influence the Brexit narrative from within more strongly And that would increase the prospects of no deal and so on and so forth. So perhaps write for a little bit of a pullback Anyone who's Looked at markets intraday for long enough will know the markets do tend to over interpret Headlines and you get almost like an exaggerated move and I think that's somewhat was what we saw yesterday Because there's still obviously a lot to play for and a lot of potential scenarios that could play out the initial was that this is going to give Boris a boost However, I think it's a little bit more complicated than that when it comes to the fact that Brexit Party is still going to run in seats held by opposition Labour Party If they were going to only target the leave areas Specifically, perhaps that benefits Boris more if it's a little bit more open than that from the Brexit Party side That could be a little bit more of a headache for the prospects for Boris Johnson Moving on from Brexit This is a headline which to come out late yesterday, but again, it's getting a bit of airplay this morning This is talking about Donald Trump, of course and having got to this phase one potential deal with China Essentially, US President Donald Trump is expected to announce this week that he's delaying a decision on whether to slap tariffs on cars and Autoparts imported from the European Union likely for another six months according to EU officials So again, this is why the market has responded quite positively to all-time record highs in the last week or so It's not only the idea that they're getting closer to some kind of workable solution with China Which is the most pressing trade dialogue at the moment But outside of that this protectionist policy is also relevant for other Key trading partners in the single market in the eurozone is definitely one of those And so I think a lot of this the reason why the market isn't forcefully responding to this I feel is that He has done this before He's kind of threatened tariffs, but then just kicks kicking the can down the road And I do think again as I've said before in the briefing on Monday This is all just part of the management of Trump He doesn't want to commit and sign deals too early because he knows he's got a good 12 months slog to get through Before kind of D day for him, which is the presidential election in early November of 2020 so Bit of a sigh of relief perhaps This isn't confirmed a lot of this is calling to people familiar with the matter EU officials have said but I guess you're looking for the conclusion from the man himself And could that come today? So as I said Trump is scheduled to discuss the country's trade policy at the economic club of new york And the markets are likely to hang on his every word is what reuters are reporting this morning What can you expect? Well, according according to a white house advisor Or a spokesperson yesterday you can expect the president to highlight how his policies of lower taxes deregulation Fair and reciprocal trade have supported the longest ever economic recovery in u.s history It was record low unemployment rising wages and soaring consumer confidence So the usual if you like of kind of validating Using various different metrics of how successful his approach and policies have been thus far I guess the key will be what definitively does he have to say particularly given the almost Stale mate that we've reached on whether he is or isn't going to conclude this deal anytime soon with china So what time is that happening? I guess that's the key question if you're trading the intraday environment He's not speaking till 5 p.m. London time. That's going to be 11 new york So if there is going to be anything he's going to say It's going to be a bit of a late one In regard to how markets might respond again any Aggressiveness or playing down of any immediacy of a deal whether with china or europe will likely be met negatively in markets i.e equity weakness And they anticipate then that you'd see a bit of a flight to quality type move So gold would probably look to reverse some of its heavy losses. It's seen of late But my baseline expectation here is that he kind of continues down the way that he is which is a successful almost management Of keeping the market on its toes providing enough support that it doesn't sell off but not Um giving away all the bullets too soon if that makes sense by by committing definitively to any of these deals One thing that that has been evident. I just wanted to mention WCI crude this morning up again. We're up about 30 cents trading above the 57 dollar handle in the futures This is a graphic here looking at Net long positions of WCI And the reason why i've mentioned this is that oil has rallied more than 8 percent since early october Amid these kind of lukewarm signals of the potential phase one deal between the us and china So we're starting to see a bit of an emergence of some cautious optimism amongst the hedge fund community When we're looking at these speculative open positions in the future space Net long positions of wti have reached as you can see here their highest levels since early october But you can see net long positions are still about only half of where we were in mid september Um the important thing here though as you can see as the price has started to come up It's been in lockstep with um hedge funds re-arming themselves getting More net long again or building up their long positioning after a big contraction of holding those long positions Over the course of september when we had a bit of a fallout in escalation of the trade war So do hedge funds see Over the coming weeks and months A positive conclusion to these developments and so therefore comfortable with looking to Rearm themselves with long positions from here going forward into the end of the year The other thing then is what are china saying at the moment So they're not really adding too much on the the trade side But what i thought was quite interesting you had a Advisor to the people's bank of china quoted overnight as saying that chinese policymakers Should pursue a proactive fiscal policy and cut interest rates to support the flagging economic growth Importantly though They do not face the same deflationary pressures that exist overseas and that fiscal policy measures should be the first consideration with monetary policy playing a supportive role So i think that's quite important for the basis that they're continuing down that Root by the governing kind of authorities that it should be government led With monetary policy being used as a secondary tool Very much the kind of opposite way around of what we're seeing in the eurozone Where you've got very much a monetary led stimulus for the economy with draggy When he left was putting out pretty firm calls for countries to step up to the plate It's the opposite way around when you're looking at china of which it always has been Um, they also as well don't seemingly are panicking about these deflationary pressures remember inflation and As far as cpi and ppi are diverging at the moment particularly given the rise in food prices Given the sharp Spike what we've had in pork Given the african swine flu And the impending chinese holidays which typically lead to seasonal demand for those products I've actually read at the weekend that it's anticipated in the coming month or so cpi in china should hit Up at around the five percent level However, if you remember ppi is moving into deflationary territory given the weaker Manufacturing activity that we've been seeing But it seems though this article or this advisor to pbac would be not hitting the panic button just yet One other thing just to conclude the headlines this morning I did send out the email Earlier I shared with all of you guys On the distribution list, but I also did tweet last night for my twitter account. This is by far The most comprehensive analysis i've seen for the uk general election and brexit thus far It's a research report by the economics team at i and g economics And if you scroll through it gives you different scenarios that could happen for the uk election It gives you what different reactions As far the how the market will interpret it in terms of the pound uk yields under everything from a large conservative majority To a thin one to a conservative minority to a labor Coalition to a labor majority and then it goes on talking about All of these in more greater detail What if the conservatives fail to secure a majority could we be in for another election after this one? How would what would need to happen for that to materialize? What are the prospects of that happening? What are the legal requirements of that? And so this is an absolute one-stop-shop I would say for absolutely everything you need to know to get fully armed At least at this point to understand what it is that we'll be looking for ahead of time So do take a moment today. I would suggest I would set aside an hour of your time to have a good read through that and you'll feel much more confident About what you're dealing with Going forward which will definitely help you interpret the headlines Like what we saw from ferrage yesterday That will be very useful for trading the intraday environment all right quick look elsewhere one thing We've got a couple of economic data points for this morning. We get uk wage data Remember, you've got wages cpi retail sales all coming out from the uk. We had gdps today a 0.1 miss on the year on year But that's not going to really move expectations nearly no reaction if you like on The british pound as you would expect here though. This is looking at the average weekly earnings growth Expectations are that it remains constant at 3.8 percent You have seen it has come off the peak slightly that we saw in july Slap been a 930 data again Unless it's wildly out of line I wouldn't really be looking for it to have too much of an impact on the pound But given the fact that sterling is testing those quite key technical levels that I was looking at earlier You can see we're right in the middle of that rectangle box at the moment or on the 30 minute chart Down at that lower level of 28 35 will be key If this number was a downside surprise So a breach of the lower end of the range, which is 3.7 So let's say a 3.5 percent print could help act as a bit of catalyst with the technical breaches might well Have a bit of a downside bias if directionally we are moving lower this morning Otherwise in europe we get the german zw survey Again for those new to the economic data prints zw is the The economist and analysts soft survey of their conditions of now and six months looking forward in the future Expectations here that it remains largely depressed at around a negative 22 print Meaning that financial market experts continue to see further deterioration in the german economy Now I don't think that a negative number here is a surprise It's just about all how negative are they at the moment? And so I'd say you need to get back down to around the august print of near Minus 44 for it really to I get liven things up potentially for the euro or a positive surprise back towards the zero marker These would all be significant breaches of the the low and upper bound of the range I would say would be the only thing that could move european instruments Otherwise in terms of the calendar for the rest of the day, it is a particularly quiet us session Remember, there's no all infant trees today from the api Given the fact that you had the veteran day holiday in the us yesterday So all infant trees will be a day delayed than normal api's tomorrow Doe is then on thursday you do though have a lot of fed speakers and ecb Speakers on the docket. So here you've got coa mersh already spoken this morning Clarita a voter does speak on monetary posse and that's going to be at 10 30 am london time So keep an eye out for that feds kashkari non-voter now But we'll be a voter next year and he's one of the most dovish members of the fed He's speaking the q&a panel at 11 a.m ecb's lane and then trump later on this evening with barker and harken harker also Speaking as well this evening Okay, that's it from me Gonna hand you over to sam then can talk over the charts from a technical perspective and some of the setups he's looking at for the day ahead But Dennis I'll post a link to that research report in the chat room as well. So you have it Thanks very much guys Hi guys We all had a good evening Some of the might as well start off of the pound here as you can see come under a bit of pressure this morning But finding some support on what was the high of of friday So understandably An area where people were looked to take some of that that profit there And if we were to come back up towards that pivot, obviously just keep an eye On those previous lows of the asian session which have acted as a good support before we did break through and retested it already So 128 62 to the upside and of course this low that we're trading Down at where we found support 128 35 obviously quite a way off where we were over Or past the Those brexit comments from farah. It's worth getting on this trend line as well Just from those highs and if we were to come back down to to test that today You could expect a bit of support that was to happen now Not too far away from what was the original high of yesterday as well so worth having that trend line on from the last couple of Trading sessions also broke this one here Which you can see is offering a bit of resistance to the upside as well So certainly some levels there to be aware of for the For the pound the dollar strong elsewhere as well and you can see euro just drifting Lower here making a new low for the day, but we have got some support from A lot of yesterday morning trading here at 1 10 46 below there the s1 and yesterday and friday's low is also In the mix so it wouldn't be looking to get too aggressive on that move Potentially looking for you know retest of these areas if we have a look closer Now where you can see we've already had some decent price action So the price was to come back towards this kind of point when we're looking here 1 10 52 Be of some interest as well Quite a lot of noise up near those highs from yesterday. It looks quite messy now when having a look at it So I don't know euro I think guess you can consider the pivot and the breakdown area that we had before looking here on Sort of that five minute Where the sellers maybe took over this morning that could be another area But the two key resistance points above where we're trading I would have is the trend line and that high And the pivot to to consider Gold this morning has Obviously come under a bit of pressure yesterday that's all important 14 65 66 level Buyers is failing to to take over that I think the the fact that we close below that level on on friday was key and and Certainly the sentiment is still to the downside the low that we touched yesterday was also a key level Just having a look back here longer term You can see that's the low that we had on the fifth of august would also have up Here the second of august low 14 42 that's going to be somewhere I would have on the chart if we are to break yesterday's low in s1 That would be an obvious target for a market that has been drifting down ever since last monday Sentiment does still seem to be to the downside. I wouldn't really be looking to get long unless we've kind of broke 14 58 And more of medium term really 14 65 now I think that would be the the confirmation that you'd be happy to get in this market Also worth having a look here and it's not going to come in for a while But the possibility of the prices getting squeezed from that top with that trend line there worth having gone But certainly there's a couple key points it would have to get through to even test that level Also keep an eye on the the asian session low before we broke down at half five You can see there's also some support yesterday But of course as with gold probably best to be looking at this afternoon rather than now S&P finishing on the highs yesterday Finally breaking through what was quite a solid You see resistance here throughout the day Did come back to sir find support late on the the session but by then things are quiet and down Had broken above the high that we made on friday Little false break there and we're just finding support now on what was the closing price or the closing high of yesterday So again, I'd have that marked up and price here I think is really going to be dictated by What donald trump comes out and says over the coming days you can see now We're just starting to form this bit of a range over the last few trading days and The r1 the all-time high a key level to keep an eye on and perhaps as well You probably want to get on a bit of a trend from the low that we have back on the sick just starting to Bring that into play as a possible point of support by the time it comes down could well be One of these lows from yesterday as well, but I think for now The s&p is a case of wait and see or look to buyers as we break resistance levels whereas, you know gold If you're looking to get long you'd want to see those those points break and if not go with the flow And I think gold has had some good opportunities when it's broken those key levels of support. Yes So you can see yes, it would have been Late on the pivot was also very good. We haven't had a retest of 14 55 point three I'd be looking at and then yesterday's low down towards 14 42 could be a good opportunity as well Oil as I mentioned pushing higher the the key levels all to keep an eye on of course will be those highs that we had from last week That we just could not break through On the longer term chart if we do then it could see a decent push higher and could be Really good opportunity, but for now this the sellers come in every time we get back up towards that that point Worth having the trend on from the last Including today three days lows also from the highs we're getting squeezed in the opportunity here I know the volume is low. Of course, this would be on a break. I would look to get long or short Respectively above those levels to sort of target any of those highs or lows as well So keeping in a watch on that all important 58 dollar handle, which would be above those highs That we've got on there the dexter's pushing lower over the last 30 minutes or so But nothing too substantial You'd have to say keep an eye really where we're trading now was the highs throughout yesterday morning much like the s&p have resistance Until the evening and we're just coming back for the first real retest of that So yeah have that marked up for sure the dollar still gonna still acting strong Which is of course bringing that euro and pound under a bit more pressure And if this is to continue you've got to imagine gold is going to drift down But but now let's see that volume not likely to be there any questions as usual, please do Let us know But I hope you will have a good trading day and I catch you all in the chat