 You guys remember, right? You had NVIDIA coming out of the 50-day moving average exploded. You had Amazon coming out of the 50-day moving average exploded. Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey, guys. Happy Monday, everybody. Hope everybody had a great Mother's Day weekend. Welcome to the first access to trader.com nightly wrap-up show of the week. Hope everybody had a good day. So here's kind of where we are. And I think going into tomorrow is an incredibly important day, very, very important day for the bulls and the bears. I believe the over-under, and we'll get to the specific numbers in a second, I think is going to impact very, very short-term trading, whether you are a permeable or a permebearer, or if you were a trader who trades both sides of the market. So let's kind of rewind, right? So for the better half of the last several weeks, for the exception of maybe Wednesday, Thursday, right? We've been pretty much sell buys. We've been talking about semiconductors going lower, pretty much predominantly taking the action, leading us higher, leading us lower. And the way we close Friday, I said on the nightly video that if any group is going to lead us higher, it's going to be the semiconductors. And if you look at a lot of how the semiconductors closed, on Friday, we got rejected off the 10-day moving average. So if the market was going to continue higher, this was going to be the group that was going to take us up. And that was kind of let's put that to the side. The other thing that we've seen for the last several weeks, when we started seeing earnings being released by the Googles of the world, the Facebooks, the Amazon, the Teslas, Apple, so forth and so on, we've been seeing the same thing. No matter how good the earnings have been, they've been getting sold, right? Really, really aggressively sold. And so we knew that as well. And the one thing that I know more than anything itself is I know when good news is being sold over and over and over again, that's usually not a good sign. So we kind of went into today's session. If you guys remember from the weekend video, I believe that the Friday session was, it was force fed ones, right? There was no really big call buying going into this week. The Dow at one point was up like 300 points on Friday and they almost force fed us kind of a close to the strength to make us feel really good inside that we were gonna rally right back. And the one thing that I keep on noticing year after year at the year, when you keep on getting good news, right? And the market still can't go higher, that's a big problem. So what do we know? We know earnings were being sold on good earnings, right? On all the mega cap, Gorilla, Primo, feel good hedge fund darlings. We also know that a lot of names, for example, like a Tesla, we'll get the Tesla in a second, got sold on that really good PR last week about how, hey, we're exceeding demand, we should go hot and then, no, we got sold, right? And when you woke up this morning, you had three things happen, right? Well, you had two things happen. You had Google gets downgraded, it gets sold. You got Facebook gets downgraded, it gets sold. You got NVIDIA gets upgraded or initiation at bear with an $800 price target, guess what? It gets sold. So if things are going down, no matter what is going on, good news, bad news are indifferent, you kind of get that first inclination that, you know what, the sell bias is there for you. Now you just have to take advantage of the side of the market. And I believe that tomorrow's session, like I started the video, is gonna be incredibly important. Now usually I would turn around and say, well, guys, based on the data, I'm very, very buy biased or based on the data, I'm very, very sell biased. And the reason why I say, let's just kind of look back at this, take a step back and look at this, you'll see in a second. So if you guys remember, there was a huge range that took out all the way back to March the 31st. This was an important range because it reclaimed the 50 day moving average. Everybody see that guys? This whole level here, this 324, 325 level, because again, it broke the downtrend, it broke a cycle of selling and it started this really aggressive run for the next two, three weeks. You guys remember, right? You had NVIDIA coming out of the 50 day moving average exploded, you had Amazon coming out of the 50 day moving average exploded. You had Apple coming out of the 50 day moving average, you got it exploded, so forth and so on. Facebook, all of them, right? 50 day moving average exploded. So now here is where we are going into tomorrow. So if you guys see where we are, we are back closed right at the 50 day moving average. Let's not split hairs. The 50 day moving average was 325, 88. We closed at 325, 70s and the keys are down, 40, 50 cents after the close. Again, I don't want to split hairs here. Remember, the ETFs are completely different animals but why this is important, why this close is important, why tomorrow's action is gonna be super duper important because this is where the whole breakout started from. And if we close below the 50 day moving average tomorrow, we're gonna start selling along very, very aggressively. And there's a flip side to that as well. If we gap lower tomorrow and reclaim the 50 day moving average, then everything is gonna go back higher and you can use the previous, and you can excuse me, you can use the days low as your stop. So it's not one of those days. Usually I turn around and say, yeah, I love this one is a long, I love this one is a short. Everything could be a long and a short tomorrow depending on who takes control of the 50 day moving average. Now, the way I look at it is if we gap up tomorrow and we go green to red, then we're gonna attack that 50 day moving average. And we're gonna have a really, really aggressive sell bias for the day. If we gap lower tomorrow based on today's pretty aggressive close, you have nearly 3% move on the Nasdaq composite. If you get a gap down tomorrow and they trap shorts and they reclaim the 50 day moving average, then we're gonna have a very aggressive rally back. Because there's two cases that you could turn around, right? If you believe in the bull case, then yes, we have to hold the 50 day moving average tomorrow reclaim it back and rally. If you are on the bear case, say, look, the market had its run, there is no catalyst. They've been selling off the market that started off as profit taking and now that's selling and now this is the line in the sand. This is the great piece of, this is the great game of chicken and somebody is gonna literally lose tomorrow, okay? It's not gonna be debatable which way the wind is gonna blow. If we close below the 325, 324 level tomorrow, we're gonna go lower, right? We're gonna start filling in this whole gap here that started at the end of March. If we wash out tomorrow and reclaim the 50 day moving average, then we're gonna start rallying back tomorrow and a lot of names that got hit today potentially could reclaim and start going higher. So that's why we don't know, right? We just don't know what's gonna happen tomorrow. A gap up open, I'll be sell bias. A gap down open, I'll still be sell bias if they're taking out opening range lows but if they never take out opening range lows and they start reclaiming the 50 day moving average, we're gonna quickly shift gears. So tomorrow open is very, very important. Of course, are there individual names that look absolutely like crap and we have some pretty aggressive pivots today? You know, does Netflix look good? Of course not, Netflix looks like, yeah, I wish my e-signal would be updating. Take my word for it, there you go. You know, Netflix looks like crap. This is the longest, this is the worst close in this whole formation. Does this thing go lower? Yeah, it looks like it's gonna go lower. If you look at, for example, on Facebook today, right? First close on this rising support, this thing could go lower. If you look at Amazon, right? If you look at Amazon, first close below this whole rising support, this thing could go lower. Tesla got absolutely destroyed today, right? First close on the 50 day moving average. This thing could go lower. So you have to have a contingency plan tomorrow. If it's a gap open, right, to the upside and have a contingency plan, if it's an aggressive gap open to the downside, because what's gonna happen by the 10 o'clock channel, we're either going to have opening range lows, they're gonna be sold below the 50 day moving average, or if they hold that initial move, we gap lower, okay? If they start reclaiming supply, then obviously we have to switch gears and go back to the long side. Again, gun to my head tomorrow, I don't know. Maybe sell buys, right? Sell buys at least in the beginning and see what happens, but you could see the data being collected. You could see the price action being traded off of the good news, off of bad news, off of good earnings, off of bad earnings, off of upgrades, off of downgrades, they all wound up the same way to the downside. The only play that I kinda like to the upside tomorrow is maybe Coinbase, right? Coinbase has gotten literally, it feels like it's had like what? One, two, three, four, five updates since its debut, right? If it starts maybe reclaiming this linear regression line tomorrow, who knows? Maybe you could have a day two run. They do report Thursday, there is some sort of buzz still, maybe waking up into its earnings. So if there's a natural play to the upside tomorrow, only if, and again, keep this in mind, this thing sold off $7, $8 off its highs, it has to still reclaim today's channels, but if it does reclaim tomorrow's channels, maybe this thing can wake up as well. Some of these Bitcoin names are getting hit. You got Maura, really, really ugly clothes below this channel. You have Riot, another really ugly clothes below this channel, looks like it's going as well. So gunked on my head and look, I say we follow through to the downside, but as we know, guesses and words and anticipation and predictions are as useless as a bikini on a bull. I wanna keep a PG. So that's kinda where we are. If you look at today's session, you can see bids getting light very, very quickly. Channels start computing down, getting confirmed. You had some early strength this morning in a lot of the Dow names. You had Boeing, you had Disney, some moves to the upside, but the question was going into this week from last, is the Dow going to pull up the NASDAQ, the technology, or is the technology names going to pull down the Dow? And if you look at today's action, you got your answer. Here's the Dow, right? That was up at one point, pretty decent and gave it all the way back, right? Sold off 300 points into the close. Meanwhile, the QQQ's just got absolutely, right? Absolutely shelled from not to bolt. So again, very, very important area tomorrow that 350, excuse me, the 50 day moving average is going to be incredibly, incredibly necessary to figure out what's going on there very, very early. The last thing you wanna buy, and this is very important to understand, especially in new traders, it's incredibly important to understand. If we are below supply, excuse me, at this point, below demand, right? And that is support. The last thing you wanna do is dip by below demand, okay? I'm telling you right now. If you look at the QQ's, what happened? The last time they were below demand, right? Let me show you here. So here was the first close below demand, okay? It started five really, really aggressive sell side candle. So be very careful. So anything that you're looking for to buy, if the Q's are underneath the 50 day moving average, you're gonna have a very, very tough time defending your position. So let's talk about today's session. Again, there was something there for everybody, some long, some shorts, but the close was very, very aggressive. And that's obviously how it's closing out the session today. So you had Disney, nice little pop on Disney. 85, 75, 86 needs to build. Here was Disney, right? The mouse house performed very, very well at the open. So it took out that 85, 75. It went to 87. Again, remember the Dastox are completely in their own world until the rug finally got pulled. The nice move there on Disney. Dell I kind of liked, I never got to the 102 area. Great job. Again, I usually don't put a lot of small cap names on the feed, but there were two names that really stood out, we'll get to both of them in a second. So who for all you small cap players, huge volume on Friday into the 50 day, right guys? 50 day moving average, it doesn't make a difference to be trading small, mid cap of large, that 50 day is important. So if that 350 builds, maybe you get a day to move. So here was Soho, let's check this out. So here was Soho, it hit the 50 day moving average, right? On Friday, it confirmed that this afternoon off that 350, it went to four bucks. Great job for all you guys who took it. Come never got to 19. FUTO was my first trade of the day to the downside. 126 of builds below can flush. Pretty aggressive near term 105 put buyers came in pretty aggressively and pretty often. I thought it could get to 19. That's exactly where it could get. I only scalp this thing, but nice move. Nice move all the way to the 19 off that 126 confirming channel. Let's see, let's see what else, what else? Sintas got to 64 and then died of a vine for everything else. Funcone never got to 26. And here's my point, right? NVIDIA initiated with an $800 price target. There, I go, look, if this the market rallies and it confirms 600, it could go. Yeah, they sold it and they sold it very, very aggressively. And that's the whole point of where we are. XP never got there. And here was the second small cap name that I put in the channel. ATOS a bunch of call buying last week on the May 21st expiration, the 250s, the 3s, the 5s and the 750, 280, 285 needs to build. Here was ATOS, right? It took out that 8, 280, 285 and went to 308. Not a bad move, not a bad move at all on there as well. And here's the FET 123 is next support from the 26, then 119. That's exactly where it went. And then you started seeing things really get aggressive. Netflix 491, 490 if it builds below can flush more. Here was Netflix, again, it looks lower and it definitely looks lower, right? So it took out the 490, 491, 490 close pretty much at the lows, pretty much at the lows of the 486 level. Looks like if we get another wave of selling tomorrow, this thing has more room down. Zoom never got to the 85. I still like that trade there. Disney take on the way up. Boeing take, oh yeah, Boeing, I forgot the Boeing Pivot 239, 75, 240 needs to build. Ran up like a dollar and a half, nothing big. Again, they pulled everything after that. But again, that's the whole point of taking on the way and then using break even as your stop. So here was ATOS exploding to the upside here. Dash, not a big move. Ran up, man down like a dollar, dollar and a half. I still like it lower, but not a big move whatsoever. And here is, I made a really, really extensive watch list for the week, right? At least for Monday. Tesla, here's the two-sided channel and the stock got absolutely murdered. This is why guys, again, we don't care which way the Pivot's confirmed, right? Upside is great, downside is fine. We started seeing really aggressive put buyers coming in on the weekly, on the weekly 625, 600, even for next week, the 570s. And it took out that 649 level. I thought there was a shot to get to 625. So here was Tesla, right? It took out that 649 level that was the previous week's lows and just got destroyed, went all the way down to 629. I know some of you guys are holding the run. Here's a really aggressive put buyers coming in. They're coming in $2 million worth of premium for the 25s for next week. And they're both about to get paid. So big, big money flow coming in on Tesla and the Qs, right? Here's the whole point. 325.88 is the 50-day. Any close below is a big red signal. And that's exactly what happened. This thing is exploding. And again, here's the point. Any close under 645 on Tesla can see 625. The stock right now is trading after hours at 623. So yeah, tomorrow is a big day, guys. Lime in the sand, come in very open-minded, come in very, very focused. There's a possibility on a two-sided, two-sided scenario playing out. But again, if you are a permable and you are strictly bi-biased, okay? Again, pay attention to that 50-day moving garage. The last thing you're gonna wanna do is sit in your portfolio or sit in your short-term positions below supply. Guys, have a great night, everybody. God bless, and I'll see you guys tomorrow. Take care.