 to help here on Think Tech, I'm Jay Fidel, Professor Harrison Kim, UH History Department joins us today for a discussion of update on Korea North and South. And I guess the tag line of that is, can Kim Jong-un do missiles and COVID at the same time? That's a real magic trick to do that. Welcome to the show, Harrison. Thank you very much for having me, Jay. Thank you. So let's address the top-down news here. So, you know, last week he's firing missiles off and being threatening on South Korea. And then we have a new president in South Korea that sort of churns up more information in the pot. And then, of course, in the last few days, he's had remarkable surge in COVID, like from zero cases, he says, to, you know, thousands of cases, 500,000, something. All of a sudden, you really wonder about the veracity of that. But here we are where he's got two major initiatives to handle, and each one draws away from the other. So what do you think is going on in North Korea right now? Right. So the first thing to keep in mind is that North Korea, just like any other modern state machinery, operates on many levels. So last week, missile testing, you know, which North Korea often carries out regularly throughout the year, according to some historical or monumental events. So North Korea was certainly doing that last week with its missile testings. But at the same time, we are now getting the first confirmation of real cases of COVID-19 in North Korea. We believe there's more than 1.5 million cases in North Korea right now. And North Korea is a smaller country of 25 million people. South Korea has 50 million people. North Korea has 25 million. And we are also getting reports of people dying from COVID. So this is a dramatic change. The most dramatic part of it is that North Korea is actually sharing with the world what's happening there right now. Well, yeah, but how accurate? We're never sure. Right, right. You know, that is always a big concern. But what we can confirm, and I have colleagues who have experienced working with North Korea's medical system, that in the past two years, North Korea's lockdown system was highly effective, just like China. So as we know, in China, when it's working, it's working. So entire cities can have zero cases. But of course, when a breakout happens, we know that the lockdown system also has many negative effects as well. So we know that in North Korea in the past two years, there have been very low number of cases. North Korea claims zero. No one can verify that. But we know that the number is very, very low, very low. The borders have been shut. And within North Korea, movement and mask mandates have been very strict. So we know that how North Korea has dealt with has been very effective so far. But the Omicron variation, this seems to be a different kind of problem for North Korea. And it seems like there was a penetration in the barrier. And the lockdown has not worked in the past a few weeks. And we are going to see really bad cases in the coming months. This has an effect on his cult of personality leadership, doesn't it? I remember, for example, they had some Western doctors go in there and do eye operations on people who were blind. And no magic, but they corrected a lot of blind people and gave them vision again. And the first thing out of the mouths of the people who were saved, who had vision again was, thank you, dear leader, that it was dear leader that did this for them, not modern medicine. And I suspect that this puts a chink in his armor. Well, he's supposed to protect them. He's supposed to save them. He is the dear leader, but he can't seem to save them from COVID. Yeah. Yeah, Jay, you know, that is one fascinating angle about North Korean culture, North Korean language, how it's related to this, our notion of ideology. And it's a very complicated process. And, you know, well, to begin with, North Korea's medical system is uneven. And by that, what I mean is that in certain areas, North Korea's medical system is highly advanced. I'm talking about basic healthcare, vaccination, caring for babies, and children, and so forth. North Korea has had universal healthcare from the 1960s, and, you know, similar to places like Cuba, Costa Rica, although expensive machines are lacking, fundamental basic care is very good in North Korea. So we have that going. Now, what is highly troublesome here is that if there's anything that is acute or new that's developing in North Korea, they don't have the infrastructure and the sophisticated equipment to tackle these arising situations. And COVID is one of them. So testing kits, they don't have them. Vaccines, they certainly do not have them. And they don't have the technology to make them yet because, you know, this has to be done immediately. So while North Korea's health system has capacity to vaccinate its people, and they have done that throughout its history, if there's anything new that arises, North Korea has tough time. With this leader, there are some differences compared to his father and his grandfather. So Kim Jong-un seems to be someone who is more open to the public about the good and the bad things of the government. So in a speech last year, you know, he was talking about how the economy is not improving and that diplomacy in the past two years. And we know what this is about, right? The whole fiasco with Trump and South Korea, it did not work out. Major failure in North Korea's diplomatic front. And he was very open about this. And it seems like he is more open to sharing the situation with the public. Now, but I'm not saying that he is changing his style of rule. It is still very much of a party state. And one family, Kim, the Kim family has the control. But he is, I guess, using different tactics to connect with the people. So yes, North Korea still has a very strong cultural identity with the leader. You know, so for example, giving any kind of glory to the Kim family and the Kim leader, it's become part of their cultural lexicon. But at the same time, it's much more complicated than blindly following this one person. Well, I mean, there's all kinds of implications now with this crisis. The first implication I want to ask you about is the missile program. I mean, he was being very threatening, gratuitously threatening. I mean, I don't know if there was a clear reason why he would have returned to that kind of threat now. He doesn't really need it geopolitically. People will speculate that he just wants attention once in a while on the national or rather international stage. And there we go again, you know, and it's sort of a repetition of earlier exposures. But this has to trump that. I hate to use that term. This has to trump that. And it makes the missile program look really unimportant. Am I right? Well, the missile program and the nuclear program, they have very important roles domestically and for the outside. It's clear that North Korea depends on the identity of a very strong military defense as a kind of a method to galvanize and unite the population. And at the same time, use that on the global stage for diplomatic or negotiating tool. So that's going to continue on. North Korea is extremely proud of its national defense. It's probably for the detriment of many other sectors of the country. But nevertheless, North Korea is extremely proud. And it is one point that they will not sacrifice. So that's a constant factor. At the same time, the failures that they experienced during the Trump era between the United States and South Korea, this was a huge blow. There was so much hope, so much expectation riding on this kind of better engagement with the United States because that's North Korea's number one foreign goal, a better relationship with the United States. And this really ineffective relationship that it had with South Korea headed by a president who was very pro-engaging. He wanted to work with North Korea. He talked about this idea of unification all the time. But we're talking about President Moon. And there was very little actual practical outcome from that relationship. So with this background and this new presidency who has started his term in South Korea, who is a very conservative, he is a far right-wing president. And they always take a very strong case position against North Korea. So we have this situation, this new situation with the United States and with South Korea at North Korea at this point does not see a clear solution. And with this emergence of this COVID crisis, we can expect North Korea to be in a very unstable position in the coming month. Well, one element that certainly complicates things is that President Yoon, who's only been in office a few months, has offered COVID assistance to North Korea, which it can use, which it will benefit hugely with the assistance that he's offered. It's a very simple formula there. It will help. But I don't think that Kim Jong-un has accepted it. It's kind of a stalemate, which is really silly. And in a funny way, if this, I guess it is known around both Koreas what is happening, if it is known to the people of North Korea, it clearly undermined Kim Jong-un's authority and dear leader status because he could accept this. But he's like, he's just angry. He's not going to make deals with anybody. He's shooting himself in the foot, right? You know what he is, Jay. You know what he is. But with foreign aid, any kind of foreign aid really, we know that there is a lot of give and take. There's always a level of compromise. And we see this so clearly with North Korea. So with any kind of foreign aid coming from South Korea, North Korea knows that it has to give up something. So it is always this kind of a zero-sum game with South Korea. And especially with this conservative president, North Korea knows that that's going to be the case. Now, how this foreign aid, this assistance with vaccination is being handled is a huge problem for North Korea. That's why in the past two years, North Korea simply refused to accept vaccinations from abroad. We know now that this has been a, this is probably a huge mistake that North Korea will pay with its lives. But here's, so here's, here's a few different aspects. So different countries and different organizations were offering vaccinations through different small and large, I guess, humanitarian organizations. And North Korea had a huge problem with it. And some of these organizations are religious organizations. What North Korea wants is a major international community like the UN for the WHO handling all the flow and giving North Korea technology to make its own vaccines. That's what North Korea was really asking for. And when the big brokers like the U.S. and Europe said, oh, we cannot give North Korea the technology, North Korea might be using it for some different purpose. So this became a huge point of controversy and debate. And North Korea simply said no. You know, if you're not going to give us the technology, then we will not accept vaccinations from a third party. So North Korea is in a different situation now. The situation is much more dire. And, you know, and I think the U.S. has also pledged to send aid as well. But all this has to be coordinated by a centralized organizations like the UN or the WHO where political consequences or compromise or negotiations can be reviewed. So it's not going to be easy, but the vaccinations have to be sent there as soon as possible. So you have the failure of the better connection with the U.S. You have this very strange set of circumstances with the new president of South Korea, Yoon. You have COVID, you have missiles. Oh, and I have to add one other point in there is that, you know, if Kim Jong-un didn't feel that he was a complete pariah, then he adds to that that he is supporting Russia and opposing Ukraine. Gee whiz, how can you paint yourself more into a corner? Why did he do that? And what effect does it have? Well, you know, North Korea knows that he can continue on as it has been by partnering with Russia and China. You know, these are huge economies and culturally and politically they are aligned with North Korea. So North Korea feels like, you know, if the world is not going to change, we'll be fine with our partners. And, you know, being being aligned with China and Russia at this time is probably not such a bad economic partnership from a certain side. You know, but at the same time, North Korea's bigger goal is to move away from its past and really enter a much larger global community with a relationship with the U.S., Japan, and South Korea. So that's its goal. You know, conservative right-wing leadership in history has done some amazing, surprising projects in the past. So it was Nixon, you know, who opened China, and Reagan, who was so instrumental in bringing down or opening up the Soviet Union. And, you know, and it was George W. Bush, who actually started to give a lot of aid to North Korea. So, you know, so strange things have happened in history for sure. And very often it has been, you know, presidents from the right-wing parties that have made this work. You know, this is so ironic, you know, because, you know, I'm a huge fan of Barack Obama, but it was six out of five out of six nuclear tests were done during the time of Obama. So, you know, it's a real historical conundrum here, right, during the presidency of a liberal president in a period of, you know, friendship. So, you know, not, I don't think hope is all lost here. Even with the conservative president in South Korea, you know, Biden, I think, has shown some kind of willingness to help North Korea. And, you know, for, you put, of course, for the interest of a better and more secure East Asia overall, right? I mean, that's our goal, not just North Korea, but a more secure and stable East Asia. So, you know, I think many parties still have an important state here. Well, let me, let me offer, you know, kind of a look at a transitional moment. I think we agree that with these various failures and pressures and crises with the changes in the world, the uncertainty of, you know, of the building blocks of Kim Jong-un's foreign policy, it's all changing around him. And where he might have, you know, rejected possibilities on trades from the West before, maybe those changes has an effect on it. And, of course, you have the people who are probably more Akamai now than they were early on with him. Absolutely. That's right. And he may not be able to count on them in exactly the same way, you know, as the dear leader. And so, you know, he's got things happening around him. That's, that's one thing. So, it's a transitional moment. And the other thing is that, and it's something you mentioned. I agree. I go ahead. Oh, yeah, yeah. No, I agree that that North Korea is in a very important transitional moment with a population that is liberalizing, that is finding more opportunities to deal with the outside world. We know this is happening. So, you know, as you were saying, North Korea's leadership and the Kim family's authority to hold on to its power using the same style of rule, I think it has to change. Yeah, that's that's what I would like to ask you about. And so, you know, various people across the years have said he wouldn't be great if the Koreas could be reunited. And I mean, it's the same people. It's the same culture. It's the same families. It's it's it's the same language. It's everything is the same. And it actually is it's tragic. It tears your heart to know that there's this barrier between two groups of the same people, even more than in West Germany and East Germany, even more. Because these Asian families are strong, the bonds are strong. And I think a lot of people regret and resent the fact they've been torn apart for so many years. And so, and visionary people have come from time to time and said, Hey, can't we put it back together again? It would be so wonderful in the fullest sense of the word. If we could do that. And yet, Kim doesn't want to do that, as his father didn't want to do that and so forth. And I just don't understand why he would reject all the entreaties from South Korea. I'm from the international community. Why don't you guys get together? Why don't you reunite? And he doesn't want to do it. What's the reason for that? Wouldn't it benefit him? And if he cared about his people, wouldn't it benefit his people? Yeah. Thanks, Jay. I think your point is right on. Korea had been united since the seventh century. And for over a thousand years, you know, it was a peninsula of the same people, same culture, same language, more unified than many other places in the world. But, you know, but it was Korea was also a victim of the Cold War games and global systematic conflict. And, you know, this has had a lasting effect where, you know, two sides have created such different political system and a cultural identity, two very different cultural identity that a clear path for reunification, although it is a goal that the two countries have always talked about. It is still a goal for the two countries. But there are so many different levels of complexity here. And of course, nobody wants another war on the peninsula. And at the same time, nobody wants one side to simply collapse either. So we want some kind of a democratic changes through probably very slow, eventual changes through referendums and some kind of a democratic process. And this will probably take a lot of sacrifice from the North. And North Korea is still trying to figure that out. How it's going to live with, for example, the U.S. military that is probably not going to go away in South Korea for a long time. Can North Korea really live with the U.S. military base in South Korea? There are signs that tell us that North Korea is willing to do that. So there are incremental changes, incremental changes. So, you know, this kind of this situation of COVID-19 crisis happening in North Korea, it may also present new opportunities to, new opportunities for engagement. Well, I, you know, from time to time when this question has been raised, you can feel that American industry, you know, would support, what do you want to call it, the democratization, the modernization, the globalization of North Korea. And then they would, they would invest huge sums of money and technology and, you know, support in general to bring it current, bring it modern, included in the world community. They would go very, very far distance just to do that. And it hasn't happened, hasn't happened. There are people out there I know would, would love to get into North Korea and help, you know, bring it, bring it into the modern age. But the question I put to you, Harrison, is Trump was ineffective in that. He didn't have any clue about how you might do that. He was just doing his personality thing. And maybe Biden's better. Maybe another president would be even better. But what is your recommendation to America, to the State Department, to the president who could see this as an important mission, you know, a Nobel Peace Prize kind of huge achievement, a global contribution. How do you handle it? I appreciate your incremental idea, but what steps do you take first? Right. So, you know, there were moments of breakthrough in recent memory. 1994, during the Clinton era, Jimmy Carter was over there in North Korea negotiating, probably, and it could have been a major breakthrough in some kind of partnership between North Korea and the United States. Kim Il-sung died right after the meeting with Jimmy Carter. So nothing really happened there. But I think there has to be some major change in the U.S. foreign policy in East Asia. You know, North Korea, although it is a small country, but it is a key of unlocking the conflict, the nature of conflict and tension in East Asia. I mean, North Korea is the key to bringing peace with Japan, China, Russia, and of course, South Korea. And I think the time has arrived when our previous approach simply has not worked. North Korea is a willing partner. And kind of like what you just said, the American enterprises would benefit greatly by going into North Korea. So, I think first, there should be a recognition that it would be a mutually beneficial project engaging with North Korea. And second, for a much more stable East Asia and Asia, it has to be the U.S. that steps up and makes the next big step forward with North Korea. Yeah, it would be hugely beneficial to the U.S. too, because it would give us greater influence in East Asia and with China. Because right now, China likes the division, doesn't it? And this would give us a little leverage over that. But one other question I want to ask you about is talking about advice, advice in the State Department to the President who might see this clearly. But, Qiri, what advice would you give to Kim Jong-un? Because if he turned around and made some changes in the way he projects his power, the way he projects his governance, if he made some changes, it would really change things on an expedited basis, I think. Oh, absolutely. And North Korea has been showing changes on this front as well. But North Korea, from the leadership on down, they have to change its rhetoric. They have to approach the global community in a more liberal, I guess, sophisticated manner. And they have to recognize that things simply do not work in a black and white kind of angle here. And they know that the issue of human rights and the nuclear program, these are the two biggest concerns that these power players have, like the United States, South Korea, Japan. And North Korea has to be willing to talk about this at all times. So North Korea is trying to do this, to not simply reject what we are demanding. But they have to get better. They have to recognize that human rights and the nuclear weapons program are going to be either a roadblock or something that can really open up ways of engaging with the world. Yeah. And what happened with Sony has got to not happen again. So they made a funny movie about him, and then he went and hacked them. That was unnecessary. But let me ask you this. So we have a new president, Yoon Suk-hyol. And he was smart enough to open the door and offer some help on the vaccines and that's to his credit, whatever his politics is, to his credit. But he's a player in this, as you said, he's a player between North Korea, the United States and China. He's right there. He's got a lot at stake. South Korea is a modern, thriving economy, a technological marvel. And you have to give credit. It's the same people. When you make the comparison between North and South Korea, it's ridiculous because North Korea can be just like that. Anyway, what should be on his dance card here? What should President Yoon do to accelerate this process of accommodation, hopefully one day reunification? Yeah. Well, Yoon and the party that he comes from, they still depend on the traditional kind of Cold War mindset where alliance, military alliance with the United States is the most important foreign relationship for South Korea. And although it is, although it is in many respects, it's not the same military network in the world anymore. And it should not be that way. But of course, Yoon, you know, this new president, as soon as he had a chance to talk with the U.S. military personnel officials, he talked about and he mentioned that he wants the nuclear weapons from the United States to be back in South Korea. He actually mentioned this. The U.S. pulled out, withdrew all of its nuclear facilities and nuclear weapons from South Korea, I believe in 1995, around 1995, you know, with this goal of denuclearizing the entire peninsula. But now Yoon wants to go back and create a really strong sense of defense in South Korea with the assistance of U.S. nuclear weapons system. So we know that the way that it's going already, we're talking about a regression into Cold War kind of conflict and tension. We know that this is also happening with China, between China and the U.S. and of course, what's happening with Russia. We know that history or the situation can regress really fast. So that is something that I am very afraid of. But at the same time, the two countries have always talked about unification and engagement. And it is part of its ongoing agenda. So we're hoping that the two sides will be able to meet very soon. And this kind of assistance aid can lead to more opportunities for exchange. But the way the world is going now, things don't look too good, Jae. I know. Thank you for reminding me. I try to be optimistic because it gets harder every day. So my last question for you, Harrison, is this. Hawaii is different than other places in the world and certainly different from other places in the U.S. And Hawaii has a large ageing population relative to total percentage-wise. And it has a substantial Korean population and who understand each other, who get along with each other, who are very appreciative and tolerant of cultural differences and so forth. I think that Hawaii could be a place where this meeting, a meeting, or some kind of exchange could take place. Maybe Seoul is not so friendly to Pyongyang or vice versa. But Hawaii could be a place which is a tolerant understanding and so forth. And so I ask you two questions. One is, do you think that's possible? Do you think it's a feasible viable in any way? And the second part of the question is what should the people in Hawaii and Hawaii has the great risk of going backwater on international issues? We really have to keep that at the top of the agenda because we're an island state in the middle of the ocean. We have to think internationally. What are your thoughts? What do you say to somebody, the average person on Bishop Street, or at Manoa? What do you say about his or her mindset over this whole possibility? Well, Jay, I really appreciate your vision. And it seems like you do have a certain sense of prescience of what the future should be. I think Hawaii is the perfect place where any kind of negotiation or engagement or meet between North Korea and the United States can happen. Before Nixon's, I guess, relationship and his visit to China, there was a lot of, I guess, backstage work behind the curtain negotiations that happened in Hawaii between the US and China. So we know that Hawaii does symbolize a place of engagement where people can come and meet. Now, we're also a very military dependent place and we're also very proud of our military as well. But having a strong military culture does not mean that we're against peace. Of course, that is not the case at all. So we know that our two representatives right now, they're kind of split on the Korean War Peace Agreement issue, which is a bill now that is at the Congress. And while at case, he's very cautious about this bill and has not supported it yet, but clearly has, clearly has. And so, and you know, and here's someone who comes from the military background, you know, because I think many of us can clearly see that that we can still maintain our military culture and our military identity while supporting peace in places like Korea. And especially on the issue of the Korean War, where the legacy and the effect of the Korean War has had a tremendous historical impact on Hawaii from immigration to migration to separation of families, right? And of course, the people of Hawaii who have died in the war as well. So we know that we are a place that needs to stand for peace. And we can be a place where we can be the bridge between the two countries. That's true. And what a statement that would be, too. A statement to ourselves, a statement to the Koreas, a statement to the world, a tremendous success. And we can be an active participant. Harrison, we're out of time. I really appreciate this conversation. We have gone far and wide. And I certainly appreciate your points and comments. I look forward to having further discussions with you as time goes by. Thank you for appearing on Think Tech. Thank you very much, Jay. Thank you for having me. Thank you so much for watching Think Tech Hawaii. If you like what we do, please like us and click the subscribe button on YouTube and the follow button on Vimeo. You can also follow us on Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, and LinkedIn, and donate to us at ThinkTechHawaii.com. Mahalo.