 It is the most wonderful time of the year because the Thanksgiving three game DFS slate is just around the corner and honestly three At least decent games better than a lot of things giving slates we've had in the recent past So pretty jacked up to break down Thursday's three game fan duel DFS slate We're gonna do that for today talking about general short sight strategy where I break down all three games and outline Our top plays on fan duel for this week This is the heat check fantasy podcast right here on the fan duel podcast network and fan duel research My name is Jim Sonnis I am a managing editor of digital media for Fando research joined here as I am for all previous shows by Brandon Can do a check him out on Twitter at can do a 13 find his work at Fando research where he is a senior managing editor Brandon happy Thanksgiving to you. How are you doing today? I'm good. It's always fun to break down the Thanksgiving slate We always take I always feels like it'll go a little bit quicker But we dig in two games at a level that we don't for the main slate So ends up taking a while, but we talk about everyone we talk about why and you know, it's You want to start off your Thanksgiving, right? So I can't just blow through these these games too quickly, right? That's right. And honestly, they're fun games to that sex I think that they're there are fun place in the slate and the question will be How do we rank the prioritization of the studs because we've got Dak Prescott Christian McCaffrey CD lamb You can't get all three, but it's not fun for the rest of your lineups so we're gonna break down how to prioritize those guys whether you should just jam in all three and General rankings of these guys getting you ready for Thanksgiving here in just one second But first quick scheduling announcement for this week. We have our week 12 preview show for the full slate on Sunday We'll be up on Wednesday. That'll be recorded live on the Fandall YouTube page at noon Eastern similar to today. So Fandall YouTube noon Eastern tomorrow for the full week 11 or week 12 a slate breakdown Then up on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed and the Fandall YouTube page after the fact also If you want some betting thoughts for not just Thanksgiving, but for other games as well We'll have covering the spread tomorrow with Dr. Ed Feng For both college football in the NFL I broke down my initial thoughts on the week 12 spreads and totals on covering the spread this morning That is already up on the covering the spread podcast feed Fandall TV plus in the Fandall YouTube page and We'll also have Tom Vecchio prying time time breaking down top player props for all three threat Thanks giving a day games on the covering the spread podcast feed and Fandall TV plus tomorrow So a lot of stuff here on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed a lot of stuff on covering the spread Make sure you're subscribed in both areas to get those shows as they go live Thanksgiving calls for family food and football and with three marquee matchups in the NFL on Thursday Fandall's giving you the opportunity to win a share of a of one million dollars in prizes with first place getting $200,000 all for just a nine dollar entry fee All you got to do is put together your best nine a player roster While staying under the salary cap then use Fandall's last scoring follow along as you compete for the top prize With your choice of stars like Dak Prescott Christian McCaffrey and Amon Ross a brown all sets take the field on a Thursday There are plenty of big names to use in your line of turkey day is coming up quickly So head over to Fandall and get your lineups today eligibility Restrictions apply go to Fandall calm or download the Fandall app for more details. I'm sorry called the turkey day Brandon my apologies Pizza day, I don't know what's what's the alternative here. What do I go with it? If I'm trying to be inclusive for you We are doing sweet potato quesadillas Sweet potato quesadilla day. There you go rolls right off the tongue We're gonna get into the games here in a second But I think it's important because typically we're doing these shows for full slates and those are a very different beast than a three game slate So I won't talk in general about about small slate strategy And he went back through looking at the past Thanksgiving a DFS slate since Fandall added the flex position back in 2018 and kind of ran through some trends that popped up So I want to give you the floor to kind of run through what you found when looking through those slates and what it means for this year's slate as well Yeah, so I mean we got to take this with a grain of salt. It's it's four slates Because we didn't have three games back in 2020 Which I remember but I forgot that game got pushed the whole way to Wednesday Steelers and Ravens game. Yeah But look it's four slates But also I think that we can kind of learn a thing or two anyway because what I found was pretty pretty logical But one thing they're basically two big takeaways well, you can get into the weeds with this kind of stuff And then it's harder Remember it hard to apply it two things. I think at least worth mentioning It definitely feels like and I I feel this way Like a backup tight end scores in that Lions game You feel like your whole day is ruined because you got to be perfect. You don't have to be perfect So I pulled the Thanksgiving million winning lineups in the perfect lineups for these slates I kind of have like eight lineups to break down. There's actually a lot of overlap between those but perfect lineups On these slates average 26 more Fandall points than the lineup that actually won the Thanksgiving million That's cherry picking the absolute perfect lineup. You could have possibly built So there's still a lot of room for error and again Your goal should be if you're playing tournaments to get that tough lineup But even if you don't like there's still a lot of wiggle room to have a good day So don't feel like you got to get everything exactly right Just have a good day But the more important one the second point I want to make Is kind of dispelling the notion that it only takes one Whatever that means to you But there's a lot of volume that goes into making a perfect lineup or a winning lineup Even on just a three game slate that six teams some of them don't have great implied team totals We've seen similar slates in the past, but if you take the 32 skill players So quarterback running back receiver and tight end Out of these four lineups in the perfect lineups 30 of them so 94% played at least half of their team snaps offensively in these games 27 of them so 84% played at least 60% of the snaps As for the tournament winning lineups the ones where you had a little more wiggle room didn't have to be perfect to make the perfect lineup 29 of them played at least 50% of the snaps 26 played at least 60% of snaps are very similar again similar lineups a little bit different, but even if you Give people some leeway for having imperfect lineups, but still you know great lineups You seem to play a lot of snaps even on these smaller slates If you look at carries plus your targets, so just your opportunities among these 28 players so removing the the quarterbacks here 24 of 28 so 86% had at least five opportunities, which doesn't it's not gonna blow you away But the average is 11.9 the four outliers the ones who didn't have at least five opportunities or You know not touches, but you know throwing the targets there Three of them were tight ends so that's explainable and then to Shawn Jackson Who got over a hundred yards and a touchdown on four targets? And then of the nine running backs who were in the Thanksgiving million winning lineups or any of the perfect lineups all had at least 18 adjusted opportunities Which for me and Jim are carries plus double your targets and the average is 25 so Running backs not really the place you look for with backups and say well someone just steals a touchdown It's gonna be enough ultimately what this comes down to to me is on these Thanksgiving slates You can get by with tight ends who don't have great workloads if they score but the thing that the trap that I can always fall into is wide receivers and saying hey all it takes is one if this guy scores or he has a You know 40 yard catch At a like bare minimum salary that's gonna be enough historically it's not enough so I just want to make sure that we're not because we're gonna talk about a lot of Receivers with improving roles or some somewhat of a role I Still want to see like a majority snap rates over 50% not the guys running 20% of the routes and say it only takes one It's just not really the case and I kind of wanted to get out in front of that this week So you're telling me I shouldn't use James and Williams is that is that the entire point? Well, isn't I mean he's what over over half the snaps in two straight games barely Not by a lot But right so it's it's one of those. I mean we're gonna we're gonna find plenty of players and again, it comes down to the receivers because like Yeah, running back doesn't work that way quarterback. Obviously not tight running back We've got guys who will get volume at non offensive salaries to right like we'll be okay there Yeah, yeah, but it always comes down to those receivers and the thought of like, you know like a rondo more this week One play and a touchdown didn't that's not enough even on yeah, like that's not necessarily enough you know, there's like 11 points you're gonna turn it down at the salary necessarily but like You still want that volume, right? Even on a short slate having a path to legitimate upside matters You can't get legitimate upside out of one play I think that's the way that I would explain it personally, you know It's just like you do need a bit more than that and that's important I'm still am I still going to consider guys like Jameson Williams. Yes, I will right because like I have to a certain point but it's important to like keep in mind that Those plays even on a short slater suboptimal. I think I would say is that ceiling does still matter kind of it's a reiterating the same thing, but like you want guys who can Erase mistakes because on a three game slate, you're more likely to have mistakes somewhere in your lineup So I want to have guys who can erase mistakes I used to say like I want a short so you can emphasize floor more and like you can because like Not every guy will have a path to upside the same way they would for a fuller slate, but I Think that as I've gotten older I've more realized that like it does still matter a lot to have those guys who can win you this slate by themselves And I think there are guys who can do that on this slate Specifically CD lamb and Christian McCaffrey. I think are the guys that come to mind for me personally who can't do that So I want to make sure I'm prioritizing guys like that within my lineups Any other thoughts for you on like small slate strategy as far as like things you do personally when playing these smaller slates anything like that Stacking particular games you can get a little bit more aggressive and have like Four or five players in a game and say like I think in this in this iteration of how I view this late The whole like the three game slate playing out You know, Washington and Dallas is gonna score 70 points in those two games aren't gonna be that good So I can get you know, I can play Sam Howe and Brian Robinson and like Who have his past catchers just because there's not gonna be points elsewhere. Yeah, you can look at it that way Something that you always say is sort of tell yourself a story of how this will play out You have to do that if you just try to play like the I mean you you can do it Like you can play like the the best one-off plays, but you know In a lot of cases there's a lot of correlation on these smaller slates So that's one thing that I'm more willing to do is sort of over stack a game or a team Yeah, the tell yourself a story works two ways It's it's both in like deciding which games shoot out because there probably will be one I actually like I think all three have a shot to go over this week their totals So I think all three are pretty good games in general, but then also from a game script perspective like I've got like the commanders win odds in My model are well, just maybe not use them as an example that might have been a bad one. Let's Let's not use them Seattle's win odds in my model are 20.9 percent So like that move wow, that's also way below Okay, so my model thinks that these won't be super. I don't know whatever Even if we assume my model is a little aggressive like even then it's a 20.9 percent chance in Seattle wins and so Yeah, keep that in mind and that means that 20.9 percent of your lineups can have going with the assumption of okay, Seattle wins this game How does that play out if that happens? Yeah, and I think another way to put sort of the similar thought there is a lot of I mean every game has a big spread Therefore three teams have a pretty healthy implied team total three have subpar implied team totals and If you extrapolated this it's you know ten games twenty teams and ten of them were favored by seven or more And like we would just pick from those teams On a three game slate digging back It's kind of hard to compare but even if I scale things for the season or you know the slate average In terms of implied team total so the expected points scored based on like the the total and the spread You'll see players get into the perfect lineup from the teams with lower totals. Yeah, because your salary is accounted for that So you you know you're gonna have to consider the teams that could get blown out And that's another that's another change for us because we try to avoid that on a bigger slate So it's a little bit obvious But I think getting it I don't want to say aggressive But being very receptive to imperfect situations is gonna be something you have to do Especially if we want value running back, which we'll talk about as we get into the game So let's start things off here by talking about the first game of the afternoon That is the Packers at the Lions are right now the Alliance are favored by seven and a half of fangirls sportsbook total in this game is 46 and a half couple key injuries in this game big one is Aaron Jones unlikely to play He has a knee injury Emmanuel Wilson also got banged up. He has a shoulder injury So Packers pretty thin at running back. They did resign James Robinson to the practice squad and also Resigned Patrick Taylor. I think Taylor will probably be active this week used with the Patriots the past couple weeks But it's been with the Packers before that he was the guy who they'd elevate from the practice squad When Jones was out earlier on this year, so I'd expect Taylor to be active So keep that in mind of AJ Dylan also Dintagian wicks made some noise in week 11 But he's in concussion protocol and unlikely to play for this week So Brandon Packers at Lions Lions pretty heavily favored total is decently high What do you see in this game your overall thoughts on Packers at Lions? I think the one of the hardest spots for me For the whole slate Is going to include the Lions running backs Because there are two guys who have legitimate tangible upside Jared Gough didn't have the best showing last week and easy I'm just saying I'm just saying They may want to rely on the ground game a bit They have that ability in their first in their first meeting. This was before You just pulled up junior Gibbs, but before Gibbs had much of a Why don't you why don't you look at his his game against the Packers? I'd rather not. Thank you Why not? I don't want to I don't want to look at it I'll pull up the good one Yeah, no, I was talking about Montgomery. Oh, yeah, okay. Sorry. I saw that you pivoted. It's down here. Yeah Yeah, 32 carries 121 yards three touchdowns. Again, this is before the roll shift For junior Gibbs and before that got better But after doing something like that and having Jared Gough again just not play his best I would not be surprised if Detroit goes pretty run heavy gives gives both Montgomery and junior Gibbs a good amount of work. Um, but With Montgomery back the roles actually been pretty heavily like the the workloads The rushing workloads at least pretty similar With Gibbs at 11 carries per game and then in these two games with Montgomery back Montgomery's at 12 But the snap rate again And that's something that I put a lot of value in based on the the researcher that I that I've done 57 percent For Gibbs 39 percent for Montgomery and if if Montgomery played 40 percent of the snaps historically That's not going to be enough to make the perfect lineup or help you get into the sun There are outliers, but the thing with Montgomery is He's got a good opportunity per snap rate So like it's a little bit different and I would also expect his role to scale back up as he comes back but I'm really fearful because you could probably tell me that Gee these guys go for like 100 scrimmage yards and scores and like they're both very viable And I feel like because there's two of them I might be underweight on both and it's a little bit scary So what are your thoughts on these two in particular? Well, you said they could go for 100 scrimmage yards and both score They've both done exactly that 95 plus in both games since Montgomery came back But they both had 95 plus yards in the touchdown in both games, which is absurd And I agree with you we're like that that I could see that skirt playing out very easily because the Packers um Have faced a 46.5 percent pass rate early down so far this year That is the second lowest mark in the entire league teams recognize They can run the ball in the Packers and they've done so at an aggressive rate and dan Campbell and ben johnson They've already shown They'll they're happy to do that and I think that they'll do the exact same here because they can Like if you can get through this game Like just torching the Packers on the ground Why would you not do that and I think they can do that so That's why I'd agree with you where I think that this is a pretty likely to be a pretty heavy Jamiro Gibbs and David Montgomery Script But like because of the workload they've both gotten in their two games since Montgomery came back They're still in play now I think that similar to you you said you're worried about being in a way. I am too That means neither is in play for cash games for me but it does mean I want to ask myself that question. What are the odds this player burns me for not using them and For both these guys, it's decently high and so for tournament lineups I want to make sure I have one or the other in a decent number of lineups Um, I cannot prioritize them over Christian McCaffrey, which means I need to actively make sure my exposure to them is lower than it is with the calfery But like I can see the pathway both Gibbs in those two games 11 carries five and a half targets 103.5 yards in scrimmage 39 red zone share says red zone shares been very good and uh, Montgomery 30 red zone share 12 carries and one target so The workload is better for Gibbs because of the passing game work But This script could be more of a Montgomery script So I'm probably between the two. I'll probably lean 60 40 Gibbs Maybe 70 30 Gibbs But I want to have them in Probably like 40 to 50 percent of lineups have one or the other. Is that kind of a fair breakdown for you? I don't know how doable that is. Yeah I mean that that depends on how much McCaffrey you're playing But it's a little tricky to get McCaffrey and one of these two in there. So that's dependent and Look, we just discussed the upside for for these two again Detroit won their this earlier season matchup 34 20 Um, they had 211 rushing yards on 43 carries Jared got through 28 pass attempts to sacks a 30 30 drop backs 43 rush attempts with Montgomery being Just the focal point I'm not saying that he's going to be the one to get 30 carries and Gibbs is going to get You know 10 10 opportunities or something like that But I sort of a hard time thinking that they're going to move away from Montgomery um I'd probably still lean like 60 40 Gibbs like you said maybe 65 Maybe 70 30 Just because the the you also get protected from a game script standpoint, although I don't particularly anticipate that Detroit plays from behind but the weird things happen. It's the NFL um So I think we're on the same page where we both recognize the upside also recognize the potential that Maybe they're a little bit over salaried or fairly salaried, but there's not enough ways to Get access to McCaffrey and cd lamb by playing these two so I'm good with it. Uh, but does this lower us on all monra st. Brown and that's passing us. Yes It lowers me on a monra compared to cd lamb because I think the cowboys are going to throw a lot in that game So that's kind of like I know we're talking about this game But I think it's important to bring in that game because it impacts this a lot because This is how this is how this pot always goes we try to keep it But you can't keep it to one game No, definitely not and like from a projection perspective a monra is going to be pretty similar to cd lamb and I get why But I just feel like this game is going to be a lot more run heavy than that one is So I if I'm stacking one of them, it's going to be cowboys commanders Over this one and that means as a result, I'll be higher on cd lamb than a monra st. Brown. So st. Brown Very proud of the play still a guy you want to get to but not going to be as big of a priority for me as you would have with the other guys now That's not to say I will ignore the passing of a tie. We referenced james and williams earlier on and His role does seem to be expanding his snap rate across the past three games has been 40 52 percent and 65 percent had a touchdown call back against the chargers had a touchdown this past week He's been somewhat effective he has a 40 deep target share from week seven on which is since jamir gibbs returned and with williams being active with a monra st. Brown active 40 deep target share they're playing indoors so that those deep targets could be effective Do I want to use a lot of james and williams? No because his role is very flimsy and there are a lot of Circumstance to re-score zero points But he can't score touchdowns. He can't get yardage and on this slate. That's enough I think the question is if we're again contextualizing all this is How do you view him compared to a guy like jackson smith and jigba? Who is at a very similar salary at 54? Has a better snap rate, but doesn't seem to have the same yardage juice that williams has Yeah, in most instances i'm gonna i'm gonna side with james and williams there. Um Because again, it's it's not that it only takes one. It's that he gets You know, he has more downfield work So over the past two games, which is kind of a cherry picked Sample where his like route rates been kind of elevated and hope hoping because you're playing him with the hopes that It stays around there or or improves Just five total targets or two and a half per game But two per game at least ten yards downfield so that's more of like a If you give proper weight to to targets With the depth and the you know red zone and that kind of stuff. It's about four targets a game Which is sort of the cutoff of like The value of targets that I want is at least four and I think that there's a case for You know williams Just sort of getting more and more and more acclimated as this team is Trending toward the postseason. So I see the case for it Don't love it and I definitely don't want to default to gms and williams in my main lineup Because I think that the potential for Like a three target game Is too high to to sort of put him in like primary play territory I agree of that. Um, it's a situation where I want to make sure my roster rate is like capped So like I agree with you where I prefer williams over smith and jigba, but I will have Pretty level exposures because I want to make sure i'm not overexposed to either of them From an individual player perspective What about josh reynolds? No No, no I mentioned before the the sample of Them since williams returned and with gibbs and amonra active so week seven on He has fewer targets per game than williams or a lower target share than williams does And his snap rate seems to be declining since Um, williams getting ramped up down to my people's jones. They're now They they traded for dpj right after reynolds had like a really key fumble And I don't think that was a huge coincidence like I think a lot of the attention went to He was coming into place williams. I think it might have been more so reynolds because his role has gotten a lot worse as the year has gone along It wasn't he's still running routes that's trending down a bit, but I don't think he's off the board if you're if you're taking the So here's the thing you gotta ask yourself what if jared goff has a great game And the running backs don't do a ton and you play goff with amonra and like Ann reynolds and then what I would do in that instance is duplicate that lineup and play a goff amonra and in williams You are allowed to do that You have the freedom to do so. I will not be joining you in that conquest. I get it totally fair Not for me personally. Let's look at the packer side of things. I talked before about how The packers have faced a very high rush rate and early downs the lions have not They've faced a 57% passer in early downs so far this year part of that is game script But also we expect the script to be kind of similar for this week AJ dylan coming into this game likely with narrow air and jones patrick taylor just rejoining the team It should be a lot of snaps for jones, but He didn't do much with that when jones is out before 15.3 carriers per game with no jones 0.7 targets and 57.3 yards from scrimmage per game. His red zone share is 23.3 So What are you doing here with AJ dylan $6600 in the spot where they're underdogs pretty big underdogs It's a pretty good rush defense on the opposing side We've seen him be pretty flawed when in a featured role in the past. What are you doing with dylan this week? Yeah, he's really difficult to navigate because I just Is he ever gonna burn us? like Even on a three game slate at a certain at a certain point like The opportunity and the role With the offense not being an offense that I particularly love. Yeah There's just a pretty narrow path for dylan to get to 20 points Yeah, we you know we're you talked about how you are Not really elevating like a floor at this point right on a three game slate I think dylan is probably going to be in a lot of optimizers That's different than saying I actively want to play him correct. I think I can do better Correct But the seahawks so correct And like he's also 600 short of tony pollard Well I know I know I know you're right, but like uh brian robinson the 67 even we assume antonio gibson plays like Robinson might have a better path outside than dylan does Even if he's pretty good. Yeah Because like if we look at the games that robinson has played with gibson He's still at 74 yards per game Yards and scrimmage and dylan's at 57 in the games with without erin jones So honestly even if gibson plays I think you can make a case for putting robinson above him I Might not make that case because like I really want the snaps dylan will play but like I might just skip over both honestly In that scenario like if I have one lineup, I can guarantee you dylan will not be in that lineup That's how I phrase it Yeah, and you know, you would think his red zone role would be really good, especially without erin jones, but it's it's not It's not no, um, so I'd like to be underweight here on dylan if I can If you have a Lot of where you assume the packers win this game sure put him in there That's that's a great script for him and he's probably contributing But that will not be my baseline assumption The pass catchers are low salaried pretty much across the board romeo dob 62 jaden re 59 christian watson 56 if you look at the games they've played with all those guys healthy Dobbs leads with a 19 target share Um, he's at 38 yards per game in that span christian watson 15.8 target share 36 yards per game Jaden reid is a 13 target share So a very low number But 54.6 yards from scrimmage per game and he gets a lot of like creative red zone looks which can lead to a lot of touchdown so Of that trio, I'd lean towards reid even though his workload is Kind of the worst of the three Um, but what about you? What's your read on the pass catchers here dobbs read in watson? I don't really have a read boo well it's They're they're kind of different roles like I feel I feel probably safest with dobbs. Um, if you want to put any stock into like You know a past game. It was a different different circumstances, but he got 13 targets in their first matchup again different situation but I'm having a hard time with christian watson. Yeah because We saw him last year be really Hyper efficient to the point that he wasn't necessarily going to continue Uh, but he's also not getting a lot of volume And I gave him like even if you look at uh since week five Once his role because he came back and was like limited and then his role kind of was like fine Um, he leads the team, but he's got a 16 target share He gets downfield work in terms of air yardage, but I don't again it's similar to similar to dylan in a very different context where like I don't want to put him in my main lineup Yeah, I don't really want to put any of these guys in my main lineup, but I see the case For playing them. Yeah, especially whenever I'm playing gives him on gummary. So I'm not going to go so far as to call anyone necessarily game stacks only Although I probably will put that moniker on some people I kind of feel like I want The past catchers here to be game stacks only because the market shares are dispersed Yeah, and it's not like a chief situation where the efficiency is really good, right? so again The odds that one of the three of these guys burns us is actually I feel like it's kind of fairly high But the odds of picking the right one and actually having like a ceiling game that just diminishes a lot. So um I'd probably rather play musgrave Is a past catcher we got to talk about the port of two, but Any strong feelings about the receivers? I do think really pretty interesting just because like the way they use him. Um, sure But so do you think he's like a One lineup? Oh definitely. No, I don't want to right no part. Um, but of the three be my favorite Just because again, I think they they want him involved and they want the ball in his hands Which I I value personally Um, I thought I thought that'd be the case of the Watson, but it honestly hasn't been right The case for Watson is that he's the lowest salary to the three which is kind of shocking, I think And he does lead in deep targets in that time 33 percent. I looked at all the games I'm probably should have done the same sample as you did. Um, but like all the games 33 deep target share Dobbs 19.6 percent read 17.4 percent pretty good red zone share for Watson too, but I think Ray is talented. Um I like the way they use him. So I would lean there, but I think it's between I don't know. It's just it's tough. Let's talk about the tight ends here. Luke must crave $5,000 Tucker Kraft got a bit more work this past week, but must crave has been on the field a lot. His salary is $5,000 Preference for you between must crave and Logan Thomas for spending down a tight end Probably Thomas because I just like the offense more. I agree Uh, what about Sam Laporta? Is he a priority for you at 65 in a slate where we're going to be trying to get to guys Like CD lamb Christian McCaffrey and Dak Prescott That's it's really difficult. I'd love to have um A good amount of Laporta and Kittle just so I don't have to worry about the fear of missing out on guys Who can get just 65 yards in a touchdown, which It's probably these two among the tight ends But I'm not going to prioritize a tight end Um At a high salary Yeah, the opportunity caused is too great to pass up on McCaffrey lamb and then As we get in this next game, we'll have to talk about how Dax Dax up against the other quarterbacks So and are you more likely to use Laporta or Kittle among the high salary guys? Probably Kittle because he'll be harder to get to I agree Uh, okay quarterback Jordan Love $7,200. Uh, jerry golf $7,800 The script worries me with golf. I would still be okay using him obviously because like it's a three in slate, but um well below Dak for me, I think he's probably below Brock Purdy too, honestly, which is weird for me But and then uh, will you get to Jordan Love? Let's say you have 20 lineups. Is Jordan Love in any of them? No, for me 20 lineups isn't enough to play every quarterback and I think I I mean you can talk to me about love versus Gino. So I guess I don't know about Gino because at least he's indoors and help. Yeah, but you're right. I was gonna say But he's not for that. He's below howl for me. Oh, yeah. Yeah um If I'm playing 20 lineups playing five quarterbacks means roughly four lineups per quarterback like if you just want to play it I want to maximize like when I get things right and spreading out quarterbacks um I wouldn't even necessarily play Four or five quarterbacks and 20 lineups on a main slate. Yeah, so I'm not gonna mix it up to this degree So no love for me. And if he if he burns me by putting up 30 points Great. Yeah, like I'll I'll enjoy the show um But it's more likely that he'll have an impact if He has 20 and nobody else has more than 25, but yeah, then at that rate I could just play anybody else too. Yeah, for sure. Any final thoughts for you on this game? Can we quickly talk about defenses because this game has interesting defenses where the salaries are moderate And then I think we kind of need to talk about how to handle defense Because it's really hard to figure out um, if you look at this if these these these defenses in the context of the full slate, they're basically third and fourth in salary um, and so it's like Are you going to play the seahawks defense? Or the commander's defense? I mean in At some point probably but I think if I have one line up, it'll probably be the lions if I have to guess Okay, because the packers defense comes into play then too Sure, they're they are underdogs probably going to face a run heavy game script, but um, I just wanted to ask because it's a lot easier if you can get an extra thousand or 700 by playing Like the seahawks or commanders and then if not Uh, do you think the packers have enough leverage in a potential game script like this? Or should we more or less be trying to get the lions? in every line up um So like the way I do defense is probably not optimal, but like I just put in this is what I'm asking So I know like how much I had to play with so I'll put like I have a defense that I put in at a lower low-ish salary Not like the lowest I'll go but like a low-ish salary and then if I have more to spend up I will but like The lions will be that default defense we could okay because I was I did the same thing. I was like I did the packers and I was like I could see myself living with the packers, but Again, I don't think we have to talk about defense as much more than that It depends on who else is in your lineup, but yeah, it's a matter of If you're if you're gonna play the commanders you got more wiggle room If you want to try to get to the lions or above then It does make a tangible change in like Your lineup construction, so I just wanted to ask about that before it moved on for sure Good question. Okay. Let's move now to the second game and talk about the commanders at the cowboys Or right now the cowboys are 10 and a half point favorites at fan dual sportsbook total in this game Is 48 and a half couple key injuries in this game the big one at least I think is antonio gibson Limited practice on monday. He had a toe injury had forced him out in week 11 And brian robinson was a featured back with no gibson riko dowdle also missed practice or was limited He didn't don't like he extra practice. He missed practice what monday with an ankle injury He practiced in full with that ankle injury all last week and did wind up playing so I bet he's good to go. I want to check just to make sure he actually Did not practice here for a second Yeah, didn't practice at all. Okay, interesting. So I think that is pretty noteworthy honestly for riko dowdle not practicing on monday, so Let's start things off here by talking about The robinson thing. I don't think that's the headliner in this game necessarily, but I think that's more so the cowboys passing offense, but let's say We get a situation where robinson is playing without gibson hypothetically because it seems like gibson probably trending towards playing right now If that does happen, how do you view robinson relative to the rest of the slate? If there's no gibson, yeah Um, probably just someone I would play in every lineup or close to it. Yeah I think he'd be as big of a priority as zack sharpening at $5,800 Yeah um, which sounds like then okay, I'm playing two of the same running backs in every lineup, but Look, if you can get great workloads at reasonable salaries for guys who have talent and You know in robinson's case can get targets Which they're probably gonna throw the ball a lot again this week Uh, I think you just take it and don't necessarily overthink it Especially compared to the rest of the slate. They're running back christian mccaffrey will get to um You want to play him if you can We already talked about the lions running backs. They're great But it's hard to get to like cd lamb or almond rossy brown if you want to do that Or one of the better tight ends if you can just and then if I mean there's tony pollard, um Who is fine, but it's not because it's not like his salary is just a screaming value either So yeah, if you can get two really good workloads and compare that to like aj dylan who's Is fine of a play as could be Um, I think you just take it. So I'd be really really high on robinson without gibson with gibson though What are you thinking? Viable for game stacks But not a priority by any means I think that's what I would say So I don't want to jump ahead too much here But I think this is a good game because we already talked about one game with three viable running backs to some degree This game has two maybe three if you want to consider antonio gibson, um, which I don't but like How how are you viewing running back in terms of prioritization at this point Sharpen a one mccaffrey two and both will be in my main like my if I have one lineup both will be in it I think but nobody else necessarily jumps out We would put the lions guy is there by default, but it's really difficult to Say you're gonna find mccaffrey and jimmy or gibson the same lineup. There will be multiple tiers between them Um, if there's if there's no gibson robinson isn't that same tier for me And I would just use all three in the same lineup There's like my main lineup and I would just call it a day Which means no Pollard, but like that's okay Um personally because I'm expecting a pretty Pass heavy script here for the cowboys. They're 10 point favorites, but like When they were facing the giants, they were still Shredding through the air and I think that's very noteworthy for how they may play things in this matchup especially because like the commanders Are a team that is pretty bad against the pass. Uh, they rank 29th right now based on number fires metrics And that includes before they traded away montez sweats and chase young the cowboys have been Very pass heavy since their buy and we know where the ball is going and that's cd lamb so I don't know. I don't know why I was going with that, but like that's why Like I think that that's why I'm prioritizing mccaffrey and charbonate over Pollard is because I expect the cowboys to be pretty pass heavy in this That's what I was going for Pretty passive in the spot I think to me like Pollard you can't really discuss him without discussing the rest of the running backs I think the other guys you kind of can yeah But for some reason Pollard for me probably because he's in the middle in terms of salary and also kind of expectations and general performance and efficiency mid If you don't think you're gonna like play mccaffrey and and the Detroit guys and you're gonna kind of go the opposite way I think look I think Pollard in a vacuum is a fine play, but I don't think he does enough To overcome mccaffrey or either Detroit guy from a process standpoint if you want to get there um The way that I kind of look at running back at this point Is you want to start with the lowest salary? Like work your way we used to work our way from the top down Yeah, now I kind of want to work from the bottom up and say who do I absolutely like want to play At charbonne if there's no walker of course, um Robinson without gibson if we can get there james just out here boating a whole I was trying to see if I could do lamb plus brown plus dak if I went with the three mid-range backs Like if there were no gibson going uh pollard robinson and charbonne and you can technically Um, but then you're out here using like juan jennings jalen tulber or something like that. So well you can also So Change your defense. I could not which is exactly what I was that's exactly what I wanted to bring it up I'm not gonna you're not gonna play any packers I will but not in this one okay Actually, I should just go seahawks because like I've got the I've got charbonne Old sharps in there and no mccaffrey. So I guess That's doable So you can make it happen and I think it's worth looking into at least yeah But that's not necessarily how I want to view it because I think mccaffrey's gonna have a great game and yeah, so So we really have what like two Premiere running backs on the assuming that gibson plays. Yes Assuming gibson plays. Yeah Yes, I agree let's talk about the cowboys passing game here and I think Like if we're talking about like priorities for studs It's a really hard decision to go between mccaffrey and lamb because mccaffrey salary is $9,800 lamb is 92 if you force me to pick I'm probably picking mccaffrey but like again, I really would like to get both because I think that relative to the rest of the slate these two guys are stand-ups I expect the 49ers to be run heavy I expect the cowboys to be past heavy and that lends itself to both these guys so Having a hard time here, but I think that that to me brinn and illustrates how high I'm on the cowboys passing attack So that's that's where I get to here. What are your thoughts overall in the cowboys passing attack here against washington? Yeah, and I weirdly think like Lamb might be harder to replace than mccaffrey. Sure because We're talking You know I come at it from a pessimistic angle with like the running backs and why I don't want to love tony pollard or ag Dillon, but like you you have options With lamb if we kind of just assume that almanra st. Brown and the lions are a little more run heavy Uh and the same for for brant. I've I've really reversed course on brandon. Ayuk So shout out uh fellow brandon, but like a lamb is kind of in a tier of his own and I'm hoping that like as favorites people just don't quite like the Cowboys passing offense as much. I think pollard scored a lot and that 38 yards against carolina last week Like it was kind of one of those we were hoping that it happened. He's suddenly very popular Like i'm not trying to sugarcoat it, but I think he'll be less popular than he should be as a result of finally cooling off last week So I think it's safe to say that Charbonne is going to be someone in A heavy majority if not all of our lineups, um Let's say you're building 10 lineups total And you have some added value because charbonne is in there How many of those you're having macaffery? How many you're having lamb? How many have both? And how many have none you can also expand it beyond 10 if you want to do 100 to make it easier But I don't think all the lineup without one of them Okay, if it's 10 Maybe if it's more Um I would probably want like six macaffery Six lamb with two of overlap there then is that two or is that that's one overlap, right? One overlap six and six didn't you? Yeah I don't know how many lotters you're building 10. I was just trying to ask you like 10 but I have one of them in every single lineup So like if I have six macaffery that would be one overlap, right? Six of each you could you could just say let because I'm asking like what you do three with just macaffery three with just lamb Uh two with both and two with zero. Oh five five four. No, man Four with just I didn't mean for me to just slam two with both. How about that? There we go, right? That that I just wanted to get the first time nailed it. Whoo Party good thing. This is a lot. We can cut that in post no raw unfiltered Stupid content the heat check fantasy podcast I'm with you where like I want one of these guys in both like in all of my lineups Um, I want to be open to both because I think that it's going to be hard to be Truly unique. It's really hard to leave a lot of salary on the table Um to try to get like a truly unique lineup in a tournament But playing the two highest salary guys together Even if they're both popular Singularly. Yeah, like you're gonna kind of cut down on that. Correct. Um, especially if you Uh, we're like not to play sharp in it, which I don't I don't I'm not necessarily advocating But like there are ways to play popular plays and change it up a bit, right? And Basically, you're taking like you're taking the seedy land lineups and trimming it down by x when you Put macaffery in there as well And I think that's a pretty attractive proposition personally if you go with sharpen a plus macaffery plus lamiere 5867 left Plug in we'll say the lion's defense. I know you can go lower, but like let's just say that 62 So like, you know, it's not easy Um, you're making constellations somewhere But I think with guys like jackson spith and jigba logan thomas james and williams. We can make that work and I would like to I might try to jam in both my primary lineup personally I I just don't know if you're like Glossing over a lot By doing that, right? I which is what makes me like that's what makes it appealing to me Like isn't it range attractive to you? It either position not in particular. Yeah, I agree the the caveat being the lion's running backs Yeah, but like I don't need them in my primary lineup. I don't think so I think I do want to jam in both personally Lamb since the buy week for the cowboys has a 34 target share with a 44 deep rate and a 32 red zone Target share That's absurd. Um, it's just it's really good. It's led to upside for dak press got to they're at home in this match up 8500 dollars will dak be in your primary lineup? Or do you do you jump down or to make it easier to get to macaffery with lamb in that one lineup? I think brock purdy is a fine consolation prize If I need to if I'm going to come off of one of those three guys I am most likely to come off of dak more so than macaffery or lamb I mean Can you play you can play all three? Yes I sent you a lineup this morning with it. Okay. Check your DMs on slack That was with the lion's defense by the way just to the record. Okay Again, my preference would be the lions, but it's more a matter of yeah Are you willing just to punt at defense to play? and It's really easy to do that time and time and time again, but that might be bad process So my simulations for the week for for this slate Have dak around 37 to have the most fandal points among the quarterbacks, which isn't surprising But purdies at 20 percent I think that His like historically for us purdy hasn't had enough of a ceiling Um, that's changing a bit, which is fun Uh And so it does make it easier To sort of go away from dak if I felt lower on purdy's ceiling I'd have a hard time going away from dak I'd rather play like value receivers than punt at quarterback To overlook dak, but I think it's a little bit easier with with purdy So I want to play dak on my primary lineup. I just wonder if that's going to push me sort of to the brink where I Have dak so basically have the qb1 the rb1 And the wide receiver one But don't really love the rest of my lineup Yeah You can make it work, but it is a chore and I think that I'd be okay Pivoting down to purdy from dak if I need the flexibility at quarterback Let's talk about the other the potential value plays in this game Which means every pass catcher on the commanders But also brandon cooks cooks at the big game against the giants We look at them since the bi-week just a 13 percent target share for cooks with 19 percent of the deep targets, but He's at home, which is good He did show a path to upside in that game and like he hasn't been bad beyond that game either Recently since he got back from that knee injury So are you willing to use brandon cooks to the sauerkraut saver here? Do you prefer guys like Johan Dotson and Curtis sanniel? Or what's your read on the value pass catchers here? Yeah, I'd rather get to cooks because I think the passing efficiency will be better Even if the passing volume might be a little bit lower Although I think it'll probably be somewhat comparable just because these two these two teams are really pass heavy um, or at least want to be pass heavy cooks Indoors as a favorite with a great implied team total Makes a lot of sense his route rates spiked back up We've historically liked michael gallup on the pod when he was Healthier or it's over but that's over with So for me cooks I can't say this for certain But cooks is probably the best value receiver on the slate, right? So you'd rank him above james and williams christian watson jaden reid Yeah, jackson speth and jigba as well. Um, probably I think he's he's the he's going to be the second option on a really good passing offense versus third second or third or Maybe first in the case of like watson, but it's a Modified first if he's like a 16.4 target shared early team. Yeah. Yeah, so Again, they're all in play, but I'd probably lean cooks Um, and he would help get Zadak a lot easier too I think so too and I think the second one for me is logan thomas sowery $5,200 which is a big part of why I'd like to get to Logan thomas if we look at the games where thomas has played full games Um, they've played seven full games with current asamiel not getting ejected and healthy with logan thomas not getting like Dirty hit against him in denver stuff like that in those games McLauren does lead with a 22 percent target share But then all three of the other guys have exactly a 15.8 percent target share It is comical how similar their workloads are thomas both has the lowest salary and feels tight end among those secondary guys so I think thomas He also has more yards and scrimmage than both uh, samuel and dotson in that time So that's why I go thomas. Um, but how are you viewing thomas? Dotson and samuel here I I feel similarly to This trio as I do the packers trio But I like it more because I think they'd seem to trust their quarterback more for better works I like I like this game more as a potential back and forth game. Yeah, so That's also factoring into why I'm a little bit lower on someone like christian watson But logan thomas definitely don't mind playing him in the tight end slot I'm not against just bringing him back with any of the other Any of the viable commanders receivers, especially when i'm playing Dak and cooks because at that rate i'm just going for the the back and forth game. Um Where does thomas rank for you On the full slate of tight ends. Do you think he's someone that you would consider In your single lineup? He probably will be in there from being honest Because i'm so determined to get to lamb with mccaffrey that I need to spend down a tight end And if we're comparing logan thomas to luke musgrave Noah fans You know other lower salary tight ends. I think that thomas is pretty easily number one So I think he's pretty likely to be in my primary lineup not because I like him, but because of what he gets me Yeah, any uh strong Strong feelings on the commander's wide receivers I Prefer samuel. I think over dotson Like I like jahan dotson as a talent, but like it's very clear He's not getting a lot of work from them and samuel does at least get like somewhat creative touches He's been pretty bad ever since he had that toe injury Practiced in full on monday and then got ejected last week obviously, but like I don't know. I just I feel like people will be a lot more likely to use dotson than to use Samuel when I think that dotson's workload and samuel is healthy is very very flimsy so I don't know. What about you? I don't I don't feel particularly great, which is why yeah, they're not going to be someone that I I don't want to I don't even even on a three games late I don't want to get to the point where I play someone I don't like So i'm going to try to work around things I like brandon coax well enough because I see the I see the routes being up I see him as the secondary option there So that's why he stands out way more to me than guessing at the commanders in terms of a single lineup. Yeah, of course. I'm going to stack this game a lot I don't want to like overlook terry mccloren sure because he's probably gonna you know It's going to be hard to get into lineups just at that sort of awkward salary the role has been better than the rest of them, but still not great so That's probably more for like a lamb lineup without mccaffery though It also could be for a sam howl lineup Well, you consider sam howl at quarterback 73 into dollars Let's compare him to golf because I think we both agree that it's dak one perty two How many lines do you need to get to sam howl? Like 20 I might need a little bit less than that honestly. Yeah, I get Because they're very one heavy He thinks very highly of his athleticism Very pass. What's that very pass heavy He thinks very highly of his of his athleticism Oh, yeah, sorry. Sorry. I think you heard me. Um, yes, they are very pass heavy. So and they're indoors It's gonna be a pass a script as well. So I might be more likely to use howl than golf honestly I think so too. Okay. Cool Um, yeah Any final thoughts for you on this game? Talked running backs I think we're I think we're good. We didn't talk to you. Is this your favorite game? Yes, it is Um, is anyone is it any other game close? 49 or ceox is close I don't think that's as close for me because it's a tier below but like I actually no, I shouldn't say close but Yeah I think there's a chance that one is Not super competitive. I mean they could all be not super competitive. There's a seven point spread in all and this is actually the closest spread Just saying so let's talk about it. Let's talk about the 49ers at the seahawks right now the 49ers are seven point favorites The total is 43 and a half. It was 42 and a half this morning But it's gone up a point which I will happily happily take because I've got this at 47. What could go wrong with that? um in this game Gino Smith sounds like he should be good to go. Uh, he's a tricep issue Pete Carroll said it's not like he's trying in the right direction. Uh, Gino did not practice though on monday Which is noteworthy. Her estimate is a non-participant since they had a walkthrough Kenneth walker likely to sit due to an oblique injury. So Let's start with the headliner in this game Which to me is Zach Charbonnet and talk through our views of him Charbonnet Brandon salary 5800 dollars How big of a priority is he compared to the rest of the slate for you? Yeah, I think on a full like 10 game 12 game slate I would play him in virtually every lineup even though the matchup is really difficult and I I don't know. I'm not sold that this game is absolutely going to be close I think this is probably the most likely game to be a blowout just the way that I view it um If your quarterback is injured and you're playing a really really good team with a good defense It can get away from you. That's just kind of how I How I see this one. So I'm a little bit low on this one all that all that to be said uh I don't know how I'm going to build lineups without Charbonnet This week for the for the Thanksgiving slate Yeah, I think I agree just because like he's I talked about this on the recap show yesterday, but like He's the exact kind of value running back you want where they were using him before This starter got hurt. He gets work in the passing game. He's going to get work in the red zone as well It is a very tough matchup, but like teams have been somewhat able to run on the 49ers this year They were like 19th against the rush based on number fires metrics now They don't run against them like they have faced the second highest pass rate on early downs this year but part of that's game script too so They've been getting a bit worse against the rush You can run the ball against them um Even if they don't run he'll still be involved via the passing game so Like we say the 10 lineup thing. I think he'd be in all 10 personally like they're pretty firm in saying that I do too. Um, I didn't realize that he had been out snapping Kenneth Walker He had part of it was like one of them was Walker is banged up going to one of the games The second was a blowout and then Then I think it was a game that he got hurt after that so There was some Flukiness in there, but yeah, he had been Yeah, I just don't envision a situation where like His role is Bad and you couldn't really convince me that like you could convince me The logic behind not playing Charbonnet and instead playing a g dylan from a game theory standpoint Yeah, but from a process standpoint, you could not do that fully agrees. Let's talk to the other headliner in this game Which is christian mccaffrey 9800 dollars 10 lineups how many six I think that's our math too Looking at the games where they've had all their guys healthy Which means Debo a yuk kiddle and i'm omitting the middle part of the year where debo is banged up in those games mccaffrey Is that 137.3 yards and scrimmage per game? He had a 60 red zone share and that's with all their dudes healthy. It's absurd absurd numbers and Seattle has been better against the rush this year than they were last year, but they're starting 20th Based on number of fires metrics They face not a league average pass right in early downs But I think that the 49ers will be willing and able to run the ball against the seahawks via mccaffrey So I would say six for me as well with mccaffrey just because like His workload is too good. His red zone share is too good. I don't want to pass up that personally Yeah, and You know, we don't or at least I don't do a lot of standings watching or anything But you know, san francisco seven and three seattle six and four very big game. It's a big game I mean, it's a it's a one-win difference But uh, san francisco has a a point differential of plus 122 in the seahawks for minus two Which again this just speaks to like I Could you sell me on like why you don't think think this game is likely to be to turn into a sort of a route I mean like I don't I think they're all likely to like they're all This game in particular like Well because seattle is the dog that's at home of the three Yes, like that gives them some extra boost like that's literally like it's also the tightest spread I'm not being weird by saying that I think this game could be like closer than the other ones I'm I'm not saying that it won't be or I'm just this is the game I'm most fearful of is just like a complete like San francisco just like blows the doors off of seattle, right That's just how I'm viewing it. I know in seattle. That's less likely. I'm seattle has been good at home four and one but Like I just I think san francisco is really really good. Yeah Gino's coming off of a triceps injury on a short week I don't love their offense that much So I'm I want to ask you like what the like what the Implication of that is like does it mean you're not using sharpening? Does it mean you're not using mccaffrey? You know, what does it mean? No, it just means that like the The pat like the past catchers that bring backs like I'm kind of lower on it So like it makes me like the idea of like gino less And I just kind of said it in passing where like I think this game is like mccaffrey's gonna get his Uh, but I kind of worry about the rest of the game a little bit the rest of the game Break down those those past catchers I think your concerns are valid been valid for every game on this lake given the spreads But I think that the reason for me We wind up in the same place but via different routes the reason why I'm not super likely to be high on debo Iuk meccaff locket etc is because I'm gonna be very stars and scrubs this week And they're all in the mid-range for for that discussion. So If I am prioritizing mccaffrey prioritizing lamb, it's gonna be hard to get to those guys Yeah, so we're getting to the same route but via different paths like I'll be lower on them as well, but because They're not as big of priorities for me as the studs are and they're not low enough salary to be focal points like sharpening How many I'm gonna play how many lineups game? How many lineups would it take for you? To go away from your core process and like build lineups around like perty Like I do a double stack of like perty and the two of Iuk Samuel or kittle And like just kind of do things completely differently Um, not a ton just because like that would be a non mccaffrey lineups that have more flexibility To get there, but then not but then not cd lamb as well I'd be surprised if you could play. I mean, I guess you probably could okay, let's do it Am I going Iuk or Samuel here? I like Iuk more the other choice. Yeah, kittle Okay, let's let's put Charbonnet at the well. I guess not guaranteed Devon are running back in the flex And then let's open things up. Let's go to the Detroit defense. Okay, so if I do that, I've got This is a perty Charbonnet. Iuk kittle Detroit lions team 6875 left. Let's go cd lamb Let's go Oh boy, we're getting down there So I would need to use two value receivers right and like I'm okay with that. So not a ton. Oh, oh, you are. Yeah, fine Yeah, because that's basically cooks Which means I have lamb cooks and Pollard and then james and williams. So I can get to that Oh It's not a ton because I'll use perty. I think perty is probably my number two quarterback above how old above goff Right Yeah, yeah, uh, he's he's shown some some ceiling and I don't think it's like fluky either He's been good enough for long enough that I'm just kind of Not gonna second guess it In any sense his his passing efficiency is really really good when you adjust for opponent's face he's at point really nine in those four games with those four guys and I don't think that's fluky Yeah, so Like he scored 26 fandal points on 25 attempts last week. This is this is like russo wilson classic stuff. Yeah And again, you're basically just betting against dak Going for like 30 or 35, which if dak, you know has a great passing game and has a rushing touchdown sure Um, but you're not really comparing him to the elite running quarterbacks or like the superstar quarterback. So I would not be disappointed if I go down to perty and my main lineup from dak I wouldn't either. Um, let's say I force you to use one of debo iyuk or kiddle Considering salary, which of them would you use if forced to use one of them? Uh kiddle Okay, pitch me on it From a projection standpoint he Is clearly like the the most likely tight end to lead the slate. Let me see what I got here Uh, I haven't 40 likely to be the highest scoring tight end on the slate. Of course that doesn't account for salary But if I account for salary, I haven't met 26 likely to be the best tight end value on the slate um If you told me that a tight ends going for I don't know. Let's see 149 yards or 116 yards in a touchdown or 89 yards in a touchdown It's going to be george kiddle over anyone else. Yeah, the opportunity cost of kiddle having 18 or 19 vandal points It gets really tricky to replace that if no tight end has more than like nine or 10 vandal points Again salary counts for you got to account for the salary and everything and you got to make sure you're hitting on your Your other options and make sure that the value required To get the kiddle actually does something too But I do think that with someone with tangible yardage upside And and like a good chance to score. I I don't love that he scored, you know two games in a row, but You also had I think I go kiddle This was with no diva, but he had 149 yards no touchdowns in a game Like that's really hard to do I would still probably go towards the past catchers personally just because I like Samuel's salary a lot and I like iuk's yardage upside, but like I think the case for kiddle is very fair and very clean so I get it. I understand it for sure. What about The seattle past catchers then. Yeah I don't know man. I'm just not going to use it like it's just it's just the salary range that I don't really envision myself being And all that much between them. I I like dk a lot more than I like lock it um, but jackson smith and jigba is like I think a viable value play we both prefer james and williams by a bit and probably prefer brand of cooks But like i'm gonna use a lot of these guys so smith and jigba Look at the games he's played with dk since the bye week 15 target share 17 percent of the deep targets and 14 percent red zone share He had four deep targets the entire year and then had four this past week two with Drew lach who is an animal Um, but like he had two from gino as well So I think they're trusting him a bit more downfield. So honestly if you tell me Like ask me which receiver I wind up with the most exposure to between this group It might actually be smith and jigba just because the salary is so low Yeah, I think I'm with you. Um Dk is really underperformed in recent weeks if you look at it from week 8 on, um He's got a catch rate over expectation of minus 10.3 percentage points um Like jsn lock it have overperformed in that category There are a few there are a few names that really scare me on the slate. Ayuka is one of them kiddles one of them Dk matcalf is another one of them because it's going to be really hard to get to dk matcalf in Primary line-ups. Yeah Especially if i'm trying to force in lamb right in mccafrey. Yeah But i'm kind of thinking like mccafrey and matcalf make a lot of sense Sure So if i'm if i'm really that sold on mccafrey, I should probably feel good about Dk to some degree. I just kind of like I don't know. I just kind of worry about a quarterback who's Hurt and playing a tough defense and I like gino a lot But he hasn't been playing as well as he played last year that about average. Yeah, he's been fine. Yeah, um They've been very good in early downs They've been hideous in late downs like they are I think fourth and early down passing efficiency, which is nuts Um, so they've been really bad on late downs, which matters like that's not doesn't mean it's fluky but like When they've been willing to throw in early downs, they've been good and again teams have thrown against the uh 49ers that are pretty pretty heavy rates Who fun goes out for this game for the 49ers via torn acl so like There's a path. So I think that like if you're saying you had the fomo with mccaf and potentially iyuk Let's say you have five single entry lineups I would set aside one of the five just stack the Daylights out of this game and do that as a way to kind of safeguard yourself. I think that might be Your route so it's lower exposure But like if dk goes off it's a lot more likely this game is is a shootout So I think that's why I would circumvent it is Set aside one of my single entry lineups to game stack this one to kind of give myself A safeguard in case it does wind up being good So over so since Week eight when met calf came back. He's averaging 5.8 downfield targets per game. I mentioned the catch rate over expectation being low There's a lot of unrealized potential in those. I just don't know like if I love the idea of Geno connecting on them finally once he's hurt and playing still a good defense But maybe I need to be higher in meccaf maybe that's you know, we're talking about defaulting to like a lot of Smith and jigba, but maybe the real play is To make sure we got dk or am I too high in dk now based on all that No, he's sorry 7000. He has upside like yardage upside in the games That I mentioned before the Smith and jigba sample where he's played with dk since the buy Dk has a 27 percent target share with 40 percent of the deep targets and 52 percent inside the red zone Like no, I think you're fine being high on him. It's more so a roster construction that leads me away But if it's a lineup with no lamb, I think that I'm pretty likely to get like I could see dk in there for sure Like let's say mid range receiver. Let's say we deviate from the Stars and scrubs approach. We don't have cd. We don't have meccaf something like that Who are you most likely to use between the chlorine lockets debo meccaf and iuk? I mean iuk if I can over dk Yeah, but not a super fair comparison do the salary sure But I have much higher offensive expectations for iuk. Uh, but meccaf over the rest of them. Okay I Would agree to that that part as well and I got to ask I never get debo, right? I don't think I've ever gotten debo, right in my life Where should I be on him this week? Don't mind him as a way like if you wind up in that range like will I break my heart to use debo over like mclauren or locket? No He just hasn't had the same like burst this year I don't know if he's still banged up or what it is But like it hasn't been the same I mentioned before a four game sample Even if I omit the game for a debo is banged up in the middle part of the year in that span 71.3 yards in scrimmage per game You know, um, it's fine. He does lead in target share on that sample at 23 percent body But iuk is at 95.8 yards per game. Uh, whereas again debo is 71.3. So Like he's fine if I wound up there. I'll rank him above locket and um mclauren, but Not a priority for me right now. I would like rank meccaf above him as well So this is a tricky one to do for for certain players and stuff But since week eight when dk came back I mentioned the 5.8 downfield targets per game um He is trailing just tank dale, which is awesome The physique of those two being like one and three or whatever on this list is phenomenal um CD lamb is at 6.3 and then iuk is at 5.7 There's a lot of downfield targets on this slate. Yeah, I'll take it I'll definitely take it any final thoughts for you on this game or on this slate in general Uh I think we covered covered this one Yeah, I agree. Um, I think that that really what it comes down to is Deciding if you want to go all in on uh, charbonne, which we will we will not going to speak for you, but we will um And then deciding how you rank lamb and macaferi and how often you want to Bend over backwards to get both. I didn't talk about a howl Line up with uh, those two guys, but like, you know, you could use same howl to get there potentially You can use brock purdy as we discussed you can find ways to get there I think it's worth at least trying to so I think that How you handle macaferi and lamb is the key decision point in this slate and for me It's just jam them in whenever I can like that'll be my approach to uh this thursday slate That's all that we have here for the thanksgiving Three game slate, but we'll be back with you once again tomorrow once again at noon eastern Breaking down the main slate for sunday noon eastern on the fandal youtube page If you like what you hear leave us a thumbs up on the fandal youtube page swing back once again tomorrow by subscribing To that page as well. You can also find these shows on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed and on fandal tv Plus brandon if people have questions for you on twitter, where can they find you there? On twitter at gaduola 13 gdu la 13 and I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s you can find me on threads at jim dot sonnis You can find fandal research on twitter at fandal research. Happy thanksgiving to you brandon happy thanksgiving to all of you listening as well Good luck to your lineups and enjoy. We'll talk to you once again tomorrow to preview the week 12 main slate This has been the heat check fantasy podcast right here on the fandal podcast network