 Hello and welcome to CMC Markets on Tuesday the 28th of July and the weekly market update. Now last week I did an update about gold and someone commented on the fact that I had a gold tie-on suggesting that the symmetry was quite good. Well this week I've got a red tie-on so guess what I'm going to be talking about. Yep, China and the slide in equity markets, Chinese equity markets over the past few days. On Monday we got the second biggest slide in Chinese equity markets since 2007 and in that context I'm going to look at a product that I looked at at the beginning of July, the Hong Kong H-China shares index. I'm also going to be looking at commodity prices in general over the past 12 months because we've had an awful lot of focus in the media on the decline in oil prices and the decline in the gold prices but it's not just confined to those products and I'm going to show you a chart which will show you a significant decline in commodity prices pretty much across the board and that's going to be particularly important in the context of this week's FOMC meeting which concludes at the end of Wednesday. Also going to have a quick look at Eurodollar, some of the key chart points on that and look at a potential reversal in the price of BP shares in the wake of their earnings announcement this morning that massive second quarter loss that they posted due to write downs in respect of a settlement in the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. So as I said earlier a lot of media focus has been on the decline in Brent crude prices and gold prices. Now if we look at a chart over the last 12 months of commodity prices in general we can see that gold prices are down 17 percent that's actually not on the chart in front of you simply because I did gold last week and if you want to get my views on gold feel free to look at last week's video but also Brent crude prices down over 50 percent but while that is the biggest decline over the last 12 months we can also measure it up with declines in natural gas prices sugar prices, sugar prices are at five yellows copper prices which are the lowest levels since 2009 and they're down nearly 25 percent we've also got significant double digit or double percentage declines in corn and wheat prices so from the chart that you know you've got in front of you right now you can see quite clearly that over the past 12 to 13 months we've had a significant decline in commodity prices across the board now that will have significant disinflationary effects going forward on an annualized basis so what does that mean for the prospect of a US rate rise over the course of the next two to three months now we've heard an awful lot of narrative from a number of Fed officials about the prospect of a rate hike in September and there's no question that a number of Fed officials really want to get on with it they want to get on with raising rates as soon as is reasonably possible what's holding them back is the lack of inflation and the lack of inflation can be no better displayed and illustrated in that chart that I just showed you a couple of minutes ago so tomorrow's FOMC meeting what can we expect from that is it going to be a signpost for a potential September rate rise given what's going on in China given the weak pricing pressure that we're seeing from commodity prices given the strength of the dollar given the uncertainty I think about Chinese growth prospects as well and the fact that Greece isn't concluded I don't think we're going to get any significant signposts tomorrow in that context we could actually see a little bit of a dollar sell-off and a commodity rebound so how is that going to get played out in the context of say for example euro-dollar so we saw euro-dollar break higher earlier this week and push back above 111 breaking the downtrend line that we've been in since the mid-June highs however we've struggled to really push significantly above 111 and I think a large part of that can be down to the fact that some of the economic data that we've seen coming out of Europe is probably a little bit on the weaker side of things and we could get some colour on that later this week with unemployment data out of Germany, Italy and the wider Euro area but overall obviously there's also an awful lot of focus on the FOMC and US GDP revisions which are due out on Thursday and they could actually be either dollar negative or dollar positive depending on whether they're upward or downward revisions the key trend line support on euro-dollar from this four-hour chart can come in, comes in from the lows from this month in July comes in around about 109.90, 110 so if we push back below 110 then it looks to be as if we could actually continue to trade in the range that we've been trading in for about the past month or so but ultimately we need to stay above 108.20 which is the lows for the last couple of months to really suggest that maybe the dollar has topped out in the first part of this video I said that I'd be looking at the Hong Kong and China rate shares index and I neglected to do that so I'm going to quickly look at that now as I say we've seen a significant decline over the past few days and weeks in Chinese commodities now what we haven't seen is a break below the lows that we saw a few weeks ago on the back of these significant measures of intervention that Chinese regulators put in place to try and put a floor under the market so we aren't as yet in what I would call a significant free fall and the key support levels on the eight shares index are at the lows that we saw earlier this month as well as the lows at the end of last year around about 10,040 so be prepared given the volatility that we've seen over the past few days and weeks for a bit of a rebound above the July lows as well as the lows at the end of 2014 let's quickly finish up with a quick look at BP's shares because they've been in a significant downward trend since April this year and a large part of that can be down to uncertainty about further litigation as a result of Deepwater Horizon but also lower oil prices but this morning we've had a significant rebound off the lows and it's important to note that we're also off the lows of this year which currently come in around about 380 pence now currently the market has rebounded and we're potentially getting what I would call a key reversal day or bullish engulfing day now depending on where we finish today because this pattern is not yet complete this particular rebound that we're seeing in BP shares today could be a precursor to a bit of a rebound so it's worth keeping an eye on where those shares close at close of business today to get an indication of whether or not we get a rebound and whether or not it's worth putting a stop loss below the lows for this year so that's pretty much it for another week if you have any questions on anything that I've covered in the past few minutes then please feel free to tweet me at mhusen underscore cmc otherwise I'll see you all again same time, same place next week