 All right. Hey, what's up guys? This is Alex from Xtrades back to you with another weekly trade ideas list. Hope everybody had a wonderful trading week last week. It was a little bit short and we had a half day Monday and then we had Tuesday off. So the week went by quick and now we're coming into a full week. And before we get into the setups here, as usual, we're going to go over the academic calendar. Last week, it's a pretty good setups even though the week was short. We had FSLR calls. We had Baidu calls and also CCL puts. FSLR and Baidu both had pretty good upside on Monday. It'd be kind of quick at the open, but eventually bounced back later in the week also, but it did take a little dip. And then CCL also had a dip. So the puts paid actually alerted puts in the chat and we made about 30% on those. And now CCL is back up. So pretty much with any puts you're taking lately, just has to be really quick, but you can still make money to the downside. So before we get into the setups, we're going to go ahead and get into the economic calendar here. So Monday, July 10th, we have Hulsa Inventories and we have Fed Vice Chair Barr speaking. We also have Fed Dolly speaking and also Fed Mester as well. Not exactly sure how much of this will have an impact, to be honest. The Fed members that usually have the most impact on the market are going to be like Bullard, Jerome Powell, maybe Waller. And then also we have consumer credit that comes out later in the session towards the close. Tuesday, nothing going on. This is not really important. Wednesday, most important. So this is the big, big day. We have the CPI. So we have Consumer Price Index, Core CPI, CPI year over year, Core CPI year over year, Richmond Fed, President Barken speaking, Atlanta Fed, President Bostick speaking, and the Fed Beige Book. And the Fed Beige Book is just kind of like an economic summary coming from all types of Fed banks and Fed members in different states. And I kind of just give an update on the economy and their specific location. So Wednesday is arguably going to be the biggest day. It's really important. And it might be a little risky to swing anything through this. Usually the implied move on the options and just overall, the overall range is usually expected to be pretty high anywhere from, you know, one to 2%. So and that could be up or down, you know, just depends on the data. So far, CPI has been trending lower. Even though it may not feel like it, the data is showing the CPI trending lower. So I'm guessing people are probably expecting the same thing just in, you know, another move lower, but we'll have to see on Thursday. As usual, initial job was claims producer price index, core CPI, CPI year over year and core CPI year over year. So this is another inflation reading just for producers. So this is the producer price index. This is the consumer price index. So just another inflation gauge. And it could be interesting. Can definitely move the market. And you can see after hours Fed, while it does speak, but it's probably going to be a nothing burger is probably not going to have any effect in the market. Marks can be too busy digesting this data. And then Friday, most important is going to be consumer sentiment. As usual, that comes out like 30 minutes after the bell, some time around that, and that can cause mid session volatility, depending on what the reading comes out as. All right. And now we're going to go ahead and get into our setups. So we have three individual setups, and then we'll go into the indexes as usual. So this week, we have shop on the list. I really like how it's breaking this trend line here. We're also right at this 61 58 support. I'm going to be looking at puts on this, maybe even shorts for shares just depends probably puts it's just a little bit cheaper to buy the puts and you're getting 100 shares worth. What I need to see here is 61 58 taken down. So we'll go ahead and add an alert, and we can just name a breakdown and hit create. So that will be set. If it wants to get under that, I would really like to maybe see it get under that before the open. So maybe gap under it, but it just depends. I wouldn't want the gap too far below. You just want to see a little bit under that. That means the support broke and maybe it's not being respected and it could flush lower ideal supports here. If it does break this is going to be 55 42. There might be a little pivot right here as well at 5808 that I just added right there. Otherwise, this is kind of just like a little free fall zone. I mean, if if this little area breaks right here, you got this little short term trend line breaking and you also have a top out here at resistance, there's resistance at 65 50s and 67 36. So up here, you can tell kind of had a little bit of trouble. But now we do need to see the support break in order to start seeing this level and then this level right here. And then there's also a big gap here below, but we're not going to shoot that far. You have to see how it reacts to these levels first. So you kind of keep it within, you know, a reasonable range and don't have your expectations too high because markets do trend in a range a large percentage of the time. So they'll kind of just stay a very large percentage of the time. So you do have to kind of keep that in mind trying to get too greedy. You know, the 61 58 down to $58. That's a good move. And this is the one day timeframe. You can also see the MACD here is negative. So that's good. That's a nice little sign. That momentum is slowing on this. Obviously, you know, you do want to pay attention to the supports and the resistance first and the trend line paying attention to price more than indicators is usually going to pay off a little bit better. So shop here looking at puts just make sure 61 58 gets broken reset that alert and they could see 58 if that breaks. Alright, and next we're going into meta. So meta actually just made a Twitter copycat and made a new app called threads had a lot of signups, think at least 50 million active users within a couple days. So that was good. Obviously, I had a nice update here. Marco is pricing that in now that it's kind of settling, you can see I had a couple days of resistance, nothing major. I got a down 0.8 here and a down 0.5 here. So about, you know, 1.3% down since it touched this little high when I'm paying attention to obviously, it's way too overextended for me to just buy calls. You can maybe look at scalps off this trend line since it's still holding. But what I'm doing, I actually set an alert on this trend line. I want to see a break just because it's so steep. I feel like this could make a good flush play to the downside. So what I did, I just right click the line, make sure you draw your trend line, and it's named a breakdown. So that way, once it happens, and if it happens, we can go ahead and, you know, trade that but I really don't like upside too much here. I mean, you got the MACD is negative. You got a very steep trend line. You got it up what 136% year to date. So I mean, this thing is pretty extended in terms of year to date. But overall, I mean, it was oversold. And, you know, people are pretty optimistic on tech obviously with AI and other things. But now I feel like it's just getting a little bit too extended. And I really would like to see this up trend line break. If you want to go ahead and draw this out, it starts at May 12. And your second point is just going to be at June 8. So those two areas where to see those blue dots, those are your two points that make the trend line. And then you just extend the trend and it'll stick out for you. So meta here, I'm looking at puts, but I do need to see the trend line break first ideal price targets, we do have a resistance here to 7650s or so. And that also active support is probably the most nearby area I can see. Otherwise, this whole area right here is kind of just a consolidation range. It's a little bit jumbled up. So that's probably as far as I can put it for right now, just the 27650s. And if I can get under that, obviously, there's one more area right here at, you know, 25880s. And that's about it. I need to see it get under that 2650s first, then I can maybe shoot for that. But like I said, you do need to see the trend line break first. So don't take the trade unless this breaks, and has a nice one day bar closing outside of the trend. And this is a really good trend line, by the way, I mean, you got test one, you got to test two, you got to test three, four. This is even like the fifth or sixth test. So this trend line is very strong and it could still hold up. That's why you need to wait. And like I said, if it's not breaking, you know, just watch this trend line, maybe you can scalp calls off it to you, but I'm personally waiting for it to break and trade puts off that if it looks good, you know, maybe the open is still holding indexes are bullish, etc. Maybe I'll go ahead and look at calls on this too for a scalp. But overall, I do want to see this trend line break. So meta here, looking at puts. All right, next, we're going into Oracle here. So this is actually just strictly a gap play. So it doesn't need to enter the gap before you take it. You need to see like a nice 15 or 30 minute bar inside the gap confirmed inside of it, and then it can fill the rest. What I'll do, I'll go ahead and add an alert at 11434. And we'll just name a gap. And if it gets under that 11434, that means it's entering the gap, and it could flush to the downside. And obviously, you know, you're looking at about 110 or so if it fills the whole thing. Sometimes it'll only feel about halfway and try to bounce there. Sometimes it'll try to hold up, you know, right at the gap support. And that's why you wait for the 11434 to get broken. And then it can enter. Otherwise, this could act as support similar to a trend line, you wait for it to break before, you know, trying to go short and up trend line. Same thing with this, you want to see, you know, the gap support break before trying to, you know, take a put trade or short trade to the downside. So 11434 does need to break. And then maximum, you know, you got it has you down to maybe 110 or so. You can see this little dividend X date is coming up. I'm not sure if that'll have an impact on the option prices. You'll have to check with your brokerage, they might give you a warning. So just make sure to look at that. But otherwise, just wait for 11434 to break. And that would be good. Otherwise, you know, this could still hold up. But Oracle here looking strictly at puts, just because this gap is below, and that does leave bulls a little bit vulnerable. You also have the MACD trending lower. So I mean, that's all three of these have a trending MACD crossed over to the downside. So that's interesting. It could just mean momentum is slowing. And it's just one piece of the puzzle. But like I said, you do need to wait for specific levels to break. And then you can enter puts. And when you're trading puts in a market like this with low volatility, I repeat this every week, going to be taking quick profits. Don't overstay your welcome. Just be careful with that way for 11434, wait for meta to break the up trend line, wait for shop to break that level women over as well. That's good confirmation. You know, keep your stops pretty tight because you know, bulls can show up at any moment with volatility this low. You just want to be careful. So those are the three put setups. No longs this week. I really didn't find any longs that I like too much. Other than some China names, I do like Baba had a great relative strength close on Friday. I mean, it's up like 8%. Still a little bit of room up to 94. My call actually just went back to break even on Friday after getting smashed. So got bailed out on that. And then body did pretty good as well. And there's a JD even looks pretty good as well. So keep an eye on China, maybe for longs, maybe see that rotation into China. But otherwise, just looking at puts on these tech names, just because the technicals look like they're lining up that way. So I could be wrong, but you know, we can always adjust and, you know, I trade the spine QQQQ in either direction. So I mean, every day I'm day trading, I even trade the futures. I trade the micro ES futures, I'll trade them long and short. So it doesn't matter. But individually, for tickers, looking at these three looking at shorts this week. All right, next, we're going into the indexes. So our first one here, we're going over the spy, the S&P 500. So Friday just had an awful close. I mean, it literally filled the gap basically all the way. And then literally just had a total risk off for like an hour. And to close just a crazy dump. I think it was 1% down, you know, from this high down to this low, it's about a 1% down move. So it was pretty crazy. Obviously, with the VIX closing down 4% still, if I'll tell you, it really didn't even come back on that dip. So that does kind of tell you a lot that maybe that was just a little shakeout. One thing you do want to be sure of is that spy is taking out the weekly lows before you even try to, you know, take a put swing or anything like that, just because, I mean, overall, it could just be holding a higher low. And these are the weekly bars. And you can see this is kind of an inside bar. So you got this bar right here, you got the mother bar, you got the high and low within this candle's range. So it's technically an inside bar just by a slim margin because the high of this candle is, I mean, it's pretty close to the high of this candle, but it's still within the range of this. So what we do need to see is either the inside bar high, need to see this 4408, get taken out to the upside, or you need to see this 430706 get taken out to the downside. And obviously that take you to one day demand. That's going to be about 432. So you got about a $5 move if it gets under the inside bar low, or the, you know, the weekly low, and get about $5 down into demand. That'd be a pretty good short trade. But I mean, we're kind of just stalling out here, right? I mean, we got pretty good resistance about 144, close to 145 or so. But overall, Matthew's still trending up. I mean, this isn't really like a crazy telling bar that it's going to reverse lower just yet. But if it does take out, you know, the weekly low at 14 or at 437, that's going to be a pretty good signal. And Friday's bar is hideous. I mean, this is almost like a shooting star or some type of some type of bearish reversal bar. But like I said, your weekly low is this 437. And that's where it pivoted right here on this daily bar. So we do need to see it getting under that first. Otherwise, this area can just act as support. Just how it wicked right here. It could just wick off this again, if it gets down there. One thing the bears do have going for them though, actually a couple things the bears have going for them. You got pretty strong resistance at 444. So right here, it's like almost like a double top, but the double top wouldn't be confirmed until it got under 430. And then you also have the MACD crossing to the downside. So it went positive for about a session or two. And then just with this gap down right here and this close, this brought the MACD back down red on the daily timeframe. One week timeframe MACD is still trending up for a more short term signal. This could be flashing, you know, somewhat of a bearish signal. But like I said, it doesn't need to take out that 437, which is the weekly low. And also the inside bar low. And like I said, that will also take you down to this little demand right here. It's a little drop based rally demand zone. And in order to go higher as well, I mean, it's pretty obvious you have to get over 444, maybe even 445. So that's your levels of focus this week. Just keep it simple. Wait for the weekly load to get taken out before trying to go short. Otherwise, you know, if it can hold up there short term, this 437 could be a pretty good support play, you know, to scalp off of and also the 444 good area to scalp puts off of just until, you know, we can either get a break here or break here to the upside or to the downside. So we could just go into a range here. Who knows, we'll need to see volatility come back, you know, in order to start breaking this range to the downside. Or if you want to see you go to the upside, obviously you don't, VIX is going to have to start treading lower as well. Pretty much do what it's been doing. And we'll go into the VIX later. It was actually a pretty interesting week last week, but we do need to see a little bit more signals from the VIX, you know, to get a proper reading on where the market's going to go next in terms of volatility. So just keep an eye on those weekly levels 437 and 444. All right, and next we're going into the QQQ. So last week we were focused on this two was that 2022 we're focused on this 2022 resistance at 37183. And you can see it actually rejected off of it last week. This bar slightly red, nothing crazy, similar to spy, kind of just a little pullback bar. But if we go to the one day, you can see we rejected off that 2022 res perfectly right here at 37183. And you could have tried to put off that made some pretty good money. The Nasdaq actually had a very red day relative to, you know, how bullish you've been lately. It was down pretty heavy. And it recovered a little bit to go down to the 15 minute. You can see it was a pretty heavy gap down and then even sold off some more. I think the Nasdaq was down as much as 1.3% but then it did rally up into the close. But I just kind of want to highlight how important that 2022 resistance was. And you could see exactly why. It's pretty much the same thing for this week. This 2022 resistance is still, you know, pretty much in play. And also we do have a little demand zone here. So maximum I can see the Nasdaq, you know, down and to this little demand zone. That's only going to be about, you know, 362 or so. That's about as low as I can put it because I really have no idea if it's going to react to this demand. It could probably bounce there, to be honest. So you do need to see the demand zone low get taken out before trying to aim any lower. But you can see the reaction to the 2022 resistance at 371s that we were looking at. And it's pretty strong, at least on the short term. And this bar is not exactly the most bullish. So this could, you know, maybe first go down to Thursday's lows about 364. I think it's under 364. Then, you know, it could get to 362. But I would say this 2022 resistance is probably the most important thing. You know, we zoom out to the one week, it's pretty massive. I mean, it's right from when we started raising interest rates in 2022. So it's a pretty important level. We had to struggle here. We also had to struggle here. So we've already had, you know, three times. We had once in 2022 rejected the hardest, obviously, because it was fresh. And we had the first test since it rejected. And then this was about the second after the level had formed. So we had about three, you know, bearish reactions to it so far. And that could be a little sign of how strong this resistance is. So it does need to get taken out in order to go higher. At the same time, you know, you only have about, what is that five, five dollars or so before it gets down to demand. So if you're trading puts, that probably might take profit area for the short term, at least until it got under 357.59. So just keep the same level of focus, the 2022 resistance, and also keep this demand and focus. But right now, it's kind of just midrange, right? I mean, you could maybe try to enter puts and just try down to the demand. But you know, the best area was probably, you know, a little bit closer to the 2022 resistance that we covered last week. And when we covered it last week, we were right here. So I mean, it was very close. I said it maybe had a little bit more room up into resistance, and that, you know, could see, you know, rejection about there. And that's basically what happened. I mean, it didn't happen on a large scale or anything, but, you know, it did happen. I did have some small resistance. So just keep that 2022 resistance and focus just draw it on your chart 37183 and then drop this little drop based rally demand zone as well. That's going to be from the open down to the low at 362 even down to 357.59. So if it does pull back a little bit more, I would look for it to try to hold up about there. But that's all I have for QQQ this week. Like I said, it's kind of midrange. So maybe not the best entry yet, but there is a little bit more room down. All right. And next we're going into the IWM. Last week, we were focused on this 38.2 Fibonacci level as resistance, which is resistance over here prior as well. So I pretty much said blatantly I would not be looking at calls up here because it's right at resistance. You could see exactly why. I mean, it rejected very hard when right back down to our rally based rally demand zone and bounced right off that. So this has been your tradable range about, you know, 189 to the demand zone and also the 200 SMA, these little green dots. That's your 200 SMA. So this week, it's actually midrange. So kind of like QQQ is midrange. IWM is also midrange. So you're not really getting an optimal entry here. I would wait for it to either get back up to this resistance or get back down to this demand. And, you know, you could trade off it to the upside of demand or you could, you know, look at puts that resistance pretty much the same thing as last week. If it got up here up to resistance and this 189, I mean, it's just a pain in the butt right now. We also have a little supply zone over here. Anywhere from 190 up to 192 is going to be a resistance area as well, potentially, just because of that supply zone. So this week is not as tradable. Last week, we were way closer to resistance. So it was easier to, you know, look at puts up here. Now we're kind of midrange, you know, we're between supply and also between demand down here. So it's right in the middle. And you can see once it got down into demand, it actually filled this little gap right here that it has and then found resistance, you know, after the market went risk off into Friday. So this week for IWM really not much you get trade just yet. I mean, you could but it's not an optimal entry just because it's not that close to demand and it's also not that close to resistance. It's right in between. So wait for it to get, you know, either up to the 38.2 at about, you know, 188, 189 or wait for it to get back down to demand. Just make sure you draw your zone and also draw your resistance, however you want to just make sure you draw it out because those are the tradable ranges. So IWM maybe just weighed on this one. The last two weeks we had a way more tradable plan this week, not so much just because it's in the middle. So need a little bit more data from IWM. All right, next we're going into the VIX. So pretty much we actually got over the 1553 level of focus. We were actually pretty much expecting the VIX to go up a little bit eventually just because we had that MACD cross, we also had signs of it, you know, consolidating and bottoming out. But what we needed to see in order for this to actually have a great pullback for the market and also see volatility come back was a close over 1553. And you could see on this bar right here, it literally closed right here at 1545. So it wasn't able to close over that. So that pretty much just proves my point of why you need to see a close over the level in order for it to be, you know, a good signal because look, it closed right under it. And now we're just literally closing at 1482 again after Friday. So it's really important that the VIX closes over our important level at 1553, which we highlighted last week, we needed to see a close over that in order to get to 1831. And that's a close over 1831, you know, to get over to 20 flat. And then most importantly, 20 flat, we have to close over that in order to go higher. But your most important level was 1553. We needed to get over that, it was not able to do that yet. So it's the same thing as last week, pretty much at similar levels, just a little bit higher. So when we had our video last week, we closed here on Friday, so it was about 1361, we're now at 1482. So just a little bit higher. It is over the 2021 low of 1473, which you see right here. And also over the 2021 low of 1410. So these are two levels from two years ago. And they were local lows in 2021, they're pretty much the all time or 52 week low points in 2021. So that's why I have them drawn out because it could be important to mark. But most importantly, like I said, I have the most important levels highlighted in green, it's gonna be 1553 and 20 flat or 2008. And you can see why. I mean, look at 2008 right here, you get a rejection, you get a rejection, rejection, rejection, rejection, got a bunch of arrows proving that you had a rejection and another rejection. So 20, arguably the most important, but 1553 is our most nearby target. So we do need to get over that, we need to close over that. And that could take the market lower and also take the VIX higher. And this move actually bailed me out. I had some July VIX calls, some 17 calls. And they literally went maybe was that point 10 in the money went up to 1710. And I got out with a 10% gain and I was down like 70% on these. So it was just a hedge, but still, I got bailed out on this move. I got pretty lucky. So I just wasn't feeling good about it closing over 1553 or even staying above 17. So close it right at the right time, luckily. But, you know, I never know. I mean, by the time that expiration happens, it could be all the way over at 20. Who knows. So I may or may not have gotten a perfect exit. But I feel like, you know, I got a pretty good deal considering I was very down on it. And I kind of just highlights why, you know, the VIX is their options are kind of tough to trade. Because at one point I entered VIX calls and I think it, you know, went up 6%. And I was still stuck at break even like, how does that happen? It just goes to show you even if you're right on options, you can still lose. And that's why they're probably the, you know, the scammiest asset you could ever trade. But they are cheap. And they do, you know, if you're smart, you can make a lot of money with them. But anyways, same thing as last week, you need to see that close over 1553. Otherwise, I mean, this is just telling me it's rejecting right here. And the VIX could go lower. But in order for for the VIX to actually start selling off hard again, it would have to get it, you know, under this 2021 low at 1410, probably 14 flat. And then you just revisit, you know, the upper 12s again, you know, 1270s, which is this low right here. But this whole cluster right here is a potential base out zone. So it's kind of tough. It's kind of tough to say that you know, can't hold up here, just because you have a 2021 low here, a 2021 low here, you have this 1350, which comes from right here. And then you also have a recent low at 1273 right here. So who knows? I mean, this, it seems pretty ideal that it could just hold up here. But like I said, we do need to see 1553 need to close over. And that would tell us a lot. Otherwise, I mean, you know, like I said, this could just be a rejection and it could trend lower, but it does need to start getting under these important levels first. So that's for the VIX. My focus for the week is for it to get over 1553. I really want to see that. All right. And lastly, we're going over the DXY. So this is the US dollar. I felt like it could stay over 103. And I felt like it's going to go a little bit higher. But on Friday, after the non farm payrolls data, it just totally killed the dollar. And now we have the MACD crossing back down again. So pretty much your 103. I mentioned last week was your pretty much your median. You needed to either get over 103 to go higher or get back under 103 to go lower in order to get to 102. Look what happened on Friday. Once it got under 103, it's just a straight shot back down to the 102s. This is why 103 is your pretty much your median level. It has to get back over. And that's because it's the 2020 COVID peak. I would consider anything over the 2020 COVID peak to be an elevated dollar, anything under. I mean, you could consider it not too elevated, but I really would want to see it get under 100 again, the DXY in order to not kind of get out of that 2022 volatility range that we had. This is the major support from, you know, 2022 and 2023. You can see it comes all the way back over here to May 2022. I would consider this, you know, anything above 100 also still kind of elevated, but most importantly, the 103 level, I mean, it does need to stay under that or get back over it. One thing I could see here is that, you know, holding up about 102, if it wants to fall a little bit lower, which I mean, it could because the MACD is starting to cross back down and that could be good for the market. But we also do have pretty good support here at 102. You get a little bounce here and a little bounce here. So I mean, if it did fall a little bit more, I would expect it to probably try to hold up about there and maybe try to make a bottom. But, you know, you need to see it get down there first. I mean, it could just make a random support here. You can see it's up, you know, just a little bit, nothing crazy. I think the futures are just down a little bit. I mean, it's basically flat, nothing to be alarmed with yet. But the dollar is all going to depend on the data and currencies are very sensitive to inflation data, to labor market data, etc. So anything could happen this week. Just with CPI coming out, it's almost like a coin toss, you know, for anything, whether you're trading equities, you know, currencies. When Wednesday comes out, it's, you know, it's pretty much in the air. So you do have to be really careful with that. If I were a betting man, I would probably say, you know, the dollar could fall a little bit lower, like I said, and maybe just try to hold up about 102 because that's the most recent support. Otherwise, you know, for me to feel a bullish on it again, I'd probably want to see the MACD get, you know, back positive again. I probably want to see it get back over 103 and then also break over this 103.54 where it rejected up here. There's really not too much on the dollar here. Nothing's like super telling, you know, the past couple of weeks, we had this little breakout right here. So I felt good about that in order to see the dollar higher. And now we're kind of just back within that that little downtrend and also rejected. So it wasn't too much follow through on this breakout. And that's why, you know, you don't want to just use the DXY by itself, maybe look at it with the VIX if you can for a volatile to gauge or for, you know, market sentiment. If you want to see the market go higher, obviously you want to see dollar and VIX probably trending lower. If you want to see the market go lower, you want to see the dollar and VIX both trending up. And that's a pretty good indication of volatility. But by itself, this hasn't been great. Because even with the dollar down, you know, almost 1%, this is a huge red candle. The market still sold off and went risk off into close. So it didn't really matter. So you do need other indicators to kind of match your analysis. And it's pretty obvious. I mean, if you look at this rejection, and once it got under 103 is, you know, it's probably going to go lower. And with the data that came out, you know, it's pretty, pretty much expected for the dollar to kind of sell off with the data. But like I said, you know, wait for it to get to, you know, about 102. And it could hold up about there, or you're going to be waiting for it to get it over 103 to get a bullish reading again. But right now it's just kind of mid range. So do need a little bit more data. But hope you guys enjoyed the video. I know we only have three setups this week. They're all short. But make sure you're waiting for the signals, wait for them to get under the levels. Shop has a level to get under meta has a trend line to get under Oracle also has a gap to get into before you take these. So just make sure, you know, you're being careful, don't get greedy, you know, with puts recently you do have to be really careful and taking quick profits, not over holding, not overstaying, you're welcome. So I love you guys make sure you like comment and subscribe. I'm going to get this chopped up edited and sent out and I'm out.