 The Power Trading Hour with your host, David White. Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at 727-873-7618. Now, David White. And welcome to another excellent edition of The Power Trading Hour. As always, we come to you at the appointed time. The following takes place between 2 p.m. and 3 p.m. So we got the market off 40 points on the S&P cash. Is that right? Let me update that just to make sure. Off 35 points on the S&P cash. And Dow 180, Nasdaq went down 125, Russell off 43. Tried to hold the market right after the open, but my guess is that we had a lot of people in China starting to sell what they could instead of what they couldn't. They were having a bad day at BlackRock for the Hang Sing. And I think we're kind of getting affected by that. Not only are they selling some equities, but even though they sold off most of the bonds, some Chinese still have U.S. bonds, and those tend to be selling them. So it's, like I said, a lot of times in down markets, it's not sell what you want to or what you should, the worst performers. But most people will sell the best because you're going to find a buyer for it. If they actually tried to sell the worst performers, all it would do is go to zero and have no buyers whatsoever. So there is a method to the madness, but instead of us being kind of small fry and selling what probably isn't working well for us, the big guys have to sell where they can, and that's generally the big stocks, and you start to see a little bit of that. During the show yesterday, we had kind of an attack on Apple. When everybody started figuring out who wrote the article and that it lacked a broad amount of context and that the writers of the article couldn't answer those context questions, like were they reducing the amount of low-end phones so that they could concentrate on the parts they did have for high-margin phones? Well, nothing but crickets. No one knows anything. I don't know what the answer is, but the article really had one person saying kind of what they were seeing from one supply company, one company that actually supplied Apple. So we're basically flat on the day. It's down maybe a quarter of a percent, which is nothing, which is about like 45%. So again, we were talking yesterday about the part in Jesse Livermore's book where you can really tell whether or not there are buyers in the market when you get these kind of things. It looks to me like there are buyers on pullbacks, not that many people wanting to buy the breakout, but certainly a lot of people wanting to buy the pullback. Chinese devaluation coming. I don't know. It's almost all self-inflicted, and that may be the problem for our earnings tonight with Tesla in that I think the Chinese government is deathly afraid that if they let everybody run around and do what they want, they'd try to overthrow the government of Z or Xi or however you want to pronounce it. So they continue to put on the draconian zero COVID regulations that pretty much have been proved the rest of it around the rest of the world as not working very well. You want to kind of limit exposure, but if you just close it all down, all you're doing is going to say that you're going to close down forever because eventually somebody's got to get it and you've got to get immunity to it. Some of the shots work well, but as we learned out getting a shot doesn't mean you don't get it. So, or spread it. So what do we do? Well, the question is just how long will China be on this path? Is it something they really think they need to do because they've got huge amounts of internal problems or is this just a political move to make sure that they have total control over the country? Not a very open or transparent country, so that's it. I'll be very interested to see what Tesla has to say since just about everything that you're doing now is dependent on having big sales in China, which reminds me of a great movie, Big Trouble in Little China. I wonder how many people remember that. Another good Kurt Russell movie, but your basic superhero, anti-hero, Claude kind of guy. Pretty standard fare, but I liked it. 877-927-6648. Email me at path at tfnn.com and of course you can always put a message in the den. Let's do a little history and then we get back into the second segment. Getting into a lot more charts, but I don't think that there's a lot you can talk about other than the TLT and the dollar, gold sucking it, and I wanted to get to the dollar here before we did a little bit of history. 12830, so kind of hanging around the previous lows of what is this? This morning at 6.30. We're up a little bit off that, but let's go back to the, that's on the euro and the dollar. On the dollar itself, 12830. People buying dollars and hiding in it, kind of the trade for a while. We saw some sell-offs, kind of tough to tell. Anyway, let's do a little history and then we'll move on. There is history repeating. And, oh, it is history, so let's go to that. And that is ooh. Get back to it. On this day in 1979, according to Dan Bricklin, the first real release of Visacaoque was completed in the package for shipment. Visacaoque was the first commercially available spreadsheet software and quickly became the first killer app of the personal computer market. I met him, I think, in the November users group meeting we had in town. And very interesting to meet somebody. At that time, everybody's excited. It was the dawn of computers. He was around the world spreading the good news. Of course, most of us, it was about 18, 19 at the time, didn't have any idea what a spreadsheet was. And, of course, it was something that was really left to the accounting kind of folks. And I don't think anybody, if you would have said spreadsheet 1979, if one out of 50 people knew what it was, I'd be surprised. The big thing about this is just how the idea of the killer app, that is one product, one piece of software that goes with your hardware, i.e. a computer, that makes it incredibly useful. And, of course, what you had was a bunch of MBAs coming out of colleges, and they all needed it and drove and bought an Apple, which helped save the company, and bought Visacaoque, which made them a lot of money. We'll be back in a minute. Teddy Kegstad has just announced a live webinar coming up for subscribers to his newsletter, The Tiger Forex Report. Wednesday, October 26th at 4 p.m. Eastern Time, Teddy will be hosting a live 60-minute webinar, Forex Strategies and Fundamentals, what is behind the Tiger Forex Report newsletter. In this 60-minute webinar, Teddy will be discussing a full breakdown of the markets that influence currency pairs, as well as applying those variables to individual currency pairs, how to evaluate trading scenarios for risk versus reward, as well as a live question-and-answer session. Sign up now and gain instant access to this live webinar coming up, as well as a month subscription to Teddy's Tiger Forex Report, which comes with a 30-day money-back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. Don't miss out on this live webinar event with Teddy Kegstad Wednesday, October 26th. Sign up now for the Tiger Forex Report at the front page of TFNN.com. Are you grinding in the market? 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Tom O'Brien is here to help. Tom O'Brien has been successfully trading markets for over 30 years. A frequent contributor to TD Ameritrade Network and CNBC, Tom O'Brien founded TFNN over 20 years ago to help educate investors just like you. Tom's daily market newsletter, Market Insights, is published every morning when the markets open to give you the competitive informational edge you need to succeed. These newsletters are packed full of Tom's advanced technical analysis and are geared to deliver comprehensive strategies for a successful portfolio. Get Tom O'Brien's newsletter, Market Insights, today and try all of our products and newsletters 30 days risk-free with our money-back guarantee at TFNN.com TFNN Educating Investors. Always a lot of rumors around these things. Now, when we get to options why we're still probably focusing more on what options say now and that's still 375 for exploration on Friday. At least that's what the option market makers are planning on. We're really just not that weak in the market. Like I said, I think a lot will have to do with Tesla. I don't like the way it's hanging around at the lows but the history on earnings for Tesla has been everybody shorting it to the moon only to see that if it doesn't blow out to the downside it tends to eat a lot of short sellers on the upside and they've been there more than 20% on a daily basis has been shorted for the last I'm going to say three weeks got into 30% back on the 6th of October but pretty much every day above 20% so one out of five one out of four depending on the day shares are shorted doesn't mean that everybody went home short those but it did mean on the day that was at least probably one out of four shares were being shorted anything more than about five or eight is pretty high does not mean that they carried that home and that's the other side of this coin and that is that Tesla is going into this at least for the 30th which is the last reporting day from the exchanges with just a day to cover and only a 2.4% now that's in the rear view mirror again that was 19 days ago we really don't have any idea I've always wondered whether or not companies hedge funds that were short these companies knew that they didn't want to see some big print for both days to cover a percent so all you have to do is get out on the 29th and guess what it doesn't show up and you go back short right again the next Monday and you can keep out of getting those prints a lot harder to do it reading the dailies I've always worked at that as a theory but I haven't found a good way to prove it but I do digress anyway that's it I wanted to go back into some of the stocks that were actually moving the market and probably not moving the market but old faithful has been Generac and man are they going to get the the losing horn today that sounded a little bit too much anyway the big move on Generac I didn't look at the news it wasn't earnings miss I do remember that see if there's anything else out here this has been the go to stock for a while I have a feeling I'll look at it tonight but a great deal of houses are being built with these systems to begin with and the housing move may be one of the things that really has challenged Generac now but since so many of these were add-ons to being built especially in California where you might have spotty power in other places but wow 25% that is quite the haircut and it got the loser horn of the day from the prices wrong otherwise the price is right other losers of the day or win a you can kind of bet on this one with the high prices of diesel remember why some of these things are gas powered most of those are the older ones the newer ones to tend to come I'm told about 75 or 80% of them with diesel engines in them and that's still I think I didn't look at the diesel price but I think it's still around 5 bucks around here or 5.50 I know that I've seen Princess 6 and 6.50 in other states not surely what it is in California now but pretty huge this hasn't blown out the lows but it's hard to believe that over time high fuel prices won't hit anything that flies floats or drives like a giant semi-truck you've got enough volume it's not as bad as one would think but certainly the price pressure is there in Winnebago also in the Nutty Like a Fruit Fly division of Waco earnings is intuitive surgical seems to always be the one that has a huge move one way or the other many times it went sideways this one seems to be one that does tend to pop very good the Tesla battery packs I'll forget them they're not selling well they're selling a handful of them but that's in the worst part it may be the most expensive add-on you can have to your house much cheaper to buy the add-on from Generac than it is from a Tesla battery pack especially if you run it off propane so not a big fan of those Tesla battery packs unless you live on somewhere like Hawaii it's incredibly expensive to get fuel or maybe somewhere out in the middle of the desert where you actually have solar cells that can work 365 most people don't know but solar cells get 90% of the power in six and a half hours of the day so out of 24 you got six and a half hours to really catch 90% of all the power and guess what if the cloud comes by or a lot of other stuff so you gotta have pretty sunny climates down here in Florida I'm not a big fan of them either mostly because we get clouds of cloudy weather you wouldn't believe it down here in Florida but we do so again it'd be tough if that happened and you were depending on those solar cells a lot easier to know that the propane is tanked up for your Generac but again maybe one day that changes but it's very tough you gotta have solar cells that track the sun to get the maximum output you gotta keep them clean a lot of maintenance on that and I think a lot of people forget and just putting them on the roof of your house ends up meaning that you're gonna probably cut that six and a half hours a day depending on which way your house is aimed to maybe three and a half or four hours so again very tough to do I'm not a big fan of solar cells being done on a mass scale by a big company that can hire people to sit there and maintain them and wash them and repair them and make sure that the sun trackers follow them all day when those motors are busted they can fix them right then much harder when everybody has to go and repair them on individual houses we'll be back in a minute if you want to take advantage of this sector now is the time to subscribe to my Gold Report the Gold Report is a comprehensive look at the metal sector as well as the markets that move gold which is the currency and bond markets new subscribers get a 30 day money back guarantee so you have nothing to lose every Monday morning I publish the Gold Report with coverage of gold, silver, bonds DXAU, HUI, GDX as well as more than 30 different mining equities to see for yourself the types of profitable trades that are recommended within the Gold Report sign up now by visiting tfnn.com don't miss out on the next great gold trade sign up today live every market day from 8.30am to 4pm eastern for free each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world from the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds Tiger TV has 8 different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money watch online at tfnn.com or on tfnn's youtube channel and become the investor you were born to be tfnn educating investors tfnn is excited about our new software charting program the art of timing the trade charts in collaboration with Tom O'Brien and using his best selling book the art of timing the trade your ultimate trading mastery system David White has programmed an outstanding piece of software that will complement any trader's methodology using this first of its kind program the art of timing the trade charts allows you to scan thousands of stocks for new setups including Gartley's ABC's Butterflies and much more the art of timing the trade charts is designed to help you when scouring the markets for stocks just beginning to form the trading patterns that many investors spend days, weeks or even months searching to find and right now we're offering licenses available at only $79 a month we are so confident that you're going to love this new charting software that will even give you a 30 day unconditional money back guarantee don't miss out on this incredible new piece of software get your copy of the art of timing the trade charts today by visiting tfnn.com this segment is brought to you by Think or Swim for more information just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com and yeah Generac, G-N-R-C is the symbol for you home gamers out there 877-927-6648 okay so let's go on to some other ones Netflix very interesting the commentary it sounded a great deal of like God thank God we're going to be able to get out of this from CNBC and the other pundits and shills on this I didn't have any problem thinking that they could get two more million people for the fall the question is can they hold on to those by next spring when everybody starts going outside but for what they have yeah is it nice that they're not reporting less subscribers but two million instead of one million again a lot of times all you really want to see is that they don't fail in bear markets to see a lot of shorts getting horribly squeezed 279.30 for a high today it's just a little over 270 now you've got some fairly decent volume this is where I would be a seller if you bought it and that is anytime let's see if I can go back and do this here make sure I've got it right here to two anytime well you may have a little bit more anytime I buy after a huge gap down it may fill all of the gap but more than likely what you're going to get is a reversal about halfway through the gap and that would be about 300 bucks so could you continue to see a miserable cycle of people shorting and then being squeezed back out you can and probably with the incredible cheering section you could get enough people to get it to 300 but this is where I'm starting to look especially in a bear market if you go back and fill half the gap you should be feeling fairly happy and taking your money and run to see do you have a white paper on solar for a typical residential home 2500-3500 I don't have one myself I have a neighbor considering it I think the high cost over the long run would not be familiar with the solar scam any thoughts appreciated yeah the only way this works is if you make your neighbors pay for it i.e. the government and of course they think that if we just keep salting the gold mine long enough someone is going to come along and buy it and then everybody is just going to believe it there are some physics that come into solar panels that just can't be bypassed and that is at their best I mean these are the ones that go to Mars and stuff like that solar cell efficiency is about 31% you're not going to get any more than that so what they do is actually put multiple solar cells together that collect more of the spectrum of light but again that's why the solar panels on those things rolling around on Mars cost about 400 times more than a regular solar cell that goes on somebody's house here in the world on the planet earth so do they work yes in certain conditions like I said where you always got sun, Hawaii Arizona where you don't have long term where you're socked in with weather and that means more than about 3 days pretty rare in the desert you get clouds and about 10 minutes of rain every day at noon and then you're done occasionally you'll get some kind of big wind storm but that's about it but yeah no matter what they're saying you've got two options and the only one is getting your neighbors to pay through taxes that makes it worth it some areas that would be it you know I first moved down here in 97 the most interesting thing I thought was how many of these roofs still had those solar water heaters on them from the 80s and of course they had when it came time for new roofs around 2000 and everybody was putting them on around here nobody was putting them back on my guess is we're going to have the same thing you're going to get to whatever the time is the new houses that have been built in the last 10 years they have them on it get replaced my guess is they're probably not going to be throwing those on you'd be much better off that you'd be much better off if we could actually have an inexpensive way of storing it we talked about the whole battery pack it's horribly inefficient and probably the best article on this was in the Economist I want to say two, three years ago where they actually showed what you're really doing is buying a big power generation station that its cost does not go down because it's sitting idle that you have to have when the sun doesn't shine or the wind doesn't blow and that would be it down here in Florida we're working on the Royal Wee people are working on tides and you know what if you put them in different areas of Florida you could probably get pretty close to 24 hours of power on tides to me that sounds a lot smarter until you get to the point where anytime you touch water things go miserably awry hurricanes all kinds of other stuff theoretically we're going to put these on the bed of the ocean and out maybe a mile so we don't they're not so problematic that may be a much better option than putting solar panels on roofs in Florida is to have something where we're maybe putting these tidal turbines down in the Gulf Stream that runs all the time now sometimes it kind of moves around a bit but I think you could probably find a center portion out there where it works but some just work on waves and generally you got some waves not always the huge ones but I think that eventually at least in some areas on the coastal areas may be a much better option over time it's just going to take a little while to get it 2-2 anyway hopefully that helps you out Hector but there's reasons why everybody isn't buying solar roofs and that is that really you're just really getting subsidized by the government they don't make any sense and you still have to buy pay for a giant coal or a natural gas power supply in a central location that everybody uses because you're going to have 10 days in a row without sun there aren't enough if you spent twice the price of your home you couldn't buy enough batteries 877-927-6648 at TFNN you'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis and it's not just dry tedious text either TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on TFNN.com and TFNN's youtube channel with Tiger TV live every market day from 8.30am to 4pm eastern for free each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls live from around the world from the moment the market opens until the closing 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question about how options tell us stuff and that is not always but most of the time you'll get enough people on the each side of the market and this goes back to a thing called the wisdom of crowds about 1902 I think a man named I want to say William Galton certainly it's Galton and he was on a nice fall day was going to a farm show and they were giving away a bowl if you could guess its weight so everybody put their guess in and somebody wanted whoever was closest but he was pretty interested in how close everybody was so he flipped the guy a buck or two to get all the other losing guesses in it took it home and found out that the average of all the guesses although some were way off to the upside way down to the downside when he actually put them all together the guesses from everybody was better than any one guest that was out there that is in statistic classes yet today is taught by putting a bunch of marbles in a one gallon glass jar and asking people how to what the number is and you'll be within 5% if you get about 25 people to guess you'll be plus or minus 5% 95% of the time so you're going to have a confidence level about that with just 25 people so there is a wisdom of the crowds it doesn't always work notoriously options are way off or quad witching that's because you can't just look at that in a vacuum where you truly can but you always have somewhere between 4 and 6 times the options you have on the monthly options expiration opposed to the weekly but there's still some but generally they're like IBM not IBM Apple, Microsoft some of the bigger stocks Apple's probably the one that comes closest on an ongoing basis and you can actually see it especially for Apple it's kind of interesting because Buffett who has a lot of shares of Apple makes probably more money rigging the option market with his company for Apple and selling options against it then probably he makes or made ever buying the stock back in the early 2000s his partner called it sewage he called it weapons of mass destruction and after a while he figured out just how much money there actually is made in options and he may have I think he does still have he did for a while maybe two years ago I remember had the biggest options house of anybody in the United States so from it's total trash to I'm the biggest option writer in the country is not very much different than he told everybody never to buy an airline he bought a couple of them uh yeah thank you Mr. Buffett as I always say listening to some of the big men of Wall Street is like hiring you're soon to be ex-wife's boyfriend lawyer to handle your divorce probably not a real smart idea I remember on Buffett I think it was in 2000 he was massively pumping Coca-Cola at the time and I thought well that's interesting I didn't buy it about two or three weeks later he'd sold a bunch of them and they came out with a big announcement about problems and I kind of knew that a lot of these guys have a lot of money but it's not enough it's never enough and they're more than willing to do one thing or say one thing and do another but probably the options thing is probably the most egregious along with the airline thing of doing that for eight get this down here uh uh if you're in some places like California where they massively um uh support it with other people's money i.e. taxes it does tend to work but uh you've gotta be in those you've gotta be in those places again is it making any money no you're just taking money for somebody else maybe that money would be better use on people that are poor in my opinion uh but hey I couldn't virtue signal then uh 877-927-6648 okay uh other stocks of interest we got to uh Tesla let's check in on earnings right now I mean on volume 7.6 billion shares so again we're not gonna have a monster day uh let's see here we got uh okay so we got Tesla we got IBM uh I did have uh IBM uh got out of it I was hoping that it would be somewhere in the neighborhood um I think we bought it at 118 in the tech insider I wanted to uh 125, 128, 130 I thought it could get back up to this gap uh and it didn't so we're out of it before earnings uh as I like to say sell when you cannot when you have to uh so we'll see what this does uh I think they're probably just gonna come out flat and then maybe we'll get in depending on the reaction we'll get back in it but uh if you don't have to be in it and I don't think anybody's saying this goes to 140 tomorrow uh maybe it goes up and down three or four bucks uh is the risk reward really there you know it would be if I was at 130 today uh so that would be it 877-927-6648 email me at path at tfnn.com of course we've got other stocks uh also coming out after the bell uh and that will be Alcoa um probably give you a little bit of idea how fcx uh may uh do in the next few days uh I don't see a whole lot out here it could be an abc on the way up I do like the very light volume in the next four days let's take a look at fcx uh that's kind of hanging about the same way in which it could be an abc on the way up uh it could just be consolidating to go retest the lows uh of course uh as I said it seems a lot more to do with finding now uh than what's happening here in the united states also after the bell tonight Las Vegas sands lvs uh to to and you're kind of at the lows here uh not a lot of juice just kind of going sideways uh bouncing a little off the lows um you know they did have a nice run up to this 4346 mostly on them reopening mcow and then it came right back down as uh they weren't uh totally open it's like uh princess bride mostly dead but not totally dead we'll be back in a minute this to gold owns and operates the largest undeveloped gold project in australia the mount Todd gold project this to gold just completed their feasibility study resulting in a 7 million ounce gold reserve this to gold has all major permits approved and has retained c i b c capital market assistance in evaluating alternatives and in 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of signing up subscribe to the Fibonacci 24 7 newsletter today tfnn.com educating investors tfnn has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours the tiger stand available to all tigers and tiger's for just $1 for the year there's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders just visit the front page of tfnn.com also a special guest on CNBC Tom will bisect and dissect the markets the Tom O'Brien show next on tfnn as we come back get ready to wrap up the day I'm say probably gonna get a lot of color from two things tomorrow that is whether or not China continues at least the Hang Sing continues to have a ripple effect and another big day down because I think that's pretty much weighing on the market I don't think we're getting lambasted too badly but certainly that to a lesser extent maybe some of those gambling stocks may have a little bit of movement you know the rest not bad when you have to actually look about what we had you know if you discount Generac which is not generally a market moving one and Winnebago which I think everybody could have seen coming 100 miles down the down the street I don't know how far you can actually see a Winnebago but probably pretty far anyway as we look at that most of the earnings have been either flat or up a bit there have been a few outliers like Generac and Winnebago but so bad so far so we'll see I think we're going to get a much better commentary not really too interested in what Tesla has to say about their particular business but what they think of what business is going to be like in China if there is one company that's going to live and die on China sales it's over the next year it's certainly going to be Tesla and of course much much higher interest rates for people buying Teslas over there now than just six months ago they've got a lot of problems they're trying to wiggle out of in the housing sector in China so I don't know if I'm so interested in Tesla and its movements as what they have to say about what they think the future of business is in China as it will affect us here so when you can not when you have to and we'll see you here tomorrow building wealth trading in the stock market seems impossible