 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good morning everybody. Welcome to another edition of theAxisToTrader.com weekend update show. Hope everybody had a great week of trading. Crazy action. We'll get into that in a second. If you are brand new to the channel, thank you very much for spending your time with us, listening to unbiased opinion of what we believe or what I believe is going to happen in the market while taking a very mature and responsible take. And being fiscally assured that you are looking at the market the right way. So if you are brand new, guys, please like, subscribe, and share the channel. And thank you very much for all your support. So let's talk about it. Usually there's a phrase that goes along with small caps, right? For all you guys who would do dabble in the small cap market, there's something called the parabolic move. Remember, like the parabolic, the best way to describe it. The most recent stock that went like parabolic, if you guys remember, was that TOP that literally went from like $6 to $260. That's where you use the word parabolic. It's very rare that you turn around and go, wow, the cues went parabolic. But that's exactly what happened. This has been an absolute screaming, screaming of a run by the bull stampede. Technology names have been absolutely on fire. If you look at the scoreboard, the Dow only went up about four-tenths of a percent versus a 3% move on the Nasdaq. And that's after giving back a little bit on Friday. Incredible, incredible moves in many, many stocks. Everything basically broke out this week. Everything went parabolic in the last week and a half or so. And you can just see it on the charts, one by one, yet Amazon going nuts. The video is definitely the biggest one, just one out of its mind. Google went, I mean, look at Google. I mean, look at them. We'll get the individual setups, I think, for next week, what I think might happen. Yet one day of a 10% run on Netflix. And again, there's really no news that is validating this move. You could turn around and say, well, there is this whole discussion on the debt ceiling. Guys, again, if you're watching, if you're trading brand new in your first two, three, four years, I'm doing this 24 years, going on my 25th year next year. They've been talking about the debt ceiling since my mother-in-law learned how to ride her first dinosaur. This has been going on forever. They still have not put a situation that the government has been closed for three, four days. It's going to get done. The deal is going to get done. They're going to raise the limit again. Listen, is it anything's possible? Of course. This could be the one time they don't do it in the market. The market comes in. But the point is traditionally, if you go back to history again, I don't know what's going to happen. I'm not in the guessing game. I'm not here to be right. But traditionally, they've been raised the debt ceiling. We had a little program clause on Friday with negotiations, but it's going to get done. I think the way traditionally the history has been played out, it's going to get done. It's going to get done. It's very tough to turn around and say, well, this is just a big run-up. It's just all excuses. We don't know why this is a big run-up. We don't care why this is a big run-up. We just like it. We like it. Every stock is breaking out. Even the stocks that are playing catch-up, they finally broke out. Meta, Apple, we've been talking about all week. The semiconductor names has been going out of their minds. Even Tesla, finally woke up and reclaimed the 50-day moving average on Friday. Again, we'll get to other pittance in a second. But I remember last year when the Nasdaq was down 30% and the QZ was down 31%. In 85% of the year, we were standing below the 50-day moving average. Traders were saying, well, I'm going to be in cash. I'm going to be in cash. Okay, you're in cash. Miss some great downside action. Okay, cool. You're in cash. Teach his own. I'm not judging. And now the same trader is that this market is absolutely running. They'll say, well, the market's only being pushed up because of five stocks. Listen, at some point, you have to commit to the trade or not trade. There's a lot of very famous analysts. John Madden is probably the most famous one. But you're not going to get paid. You're not going to develop your career by sitting on the sidelines and trying to wait for the perfect pitch. You're never going to get the perfect pitch. It's like somebody looking at real estate and saying, well, the interest rates are too high. Now the interest rates are being cut. I'm going to wait for lower interest rates. It's never a perfect time to buy your dream home. Your dream home is your dream home. Just buy it and enjoy it and create memories. And the stock market is exactly the same way. You're never going to have that perfect setup with 200,000 shares on the offer that they're going to lift, and then the stocks are going to go up $7. Maybe that happens once the blue moon. Maybe it doesn't. But there is no perfect scenario in the market. The market is supposed to make you feel uncomfortable. It's supposed to make you second guess everything. That's the whole point. This is why so many people have so much struggles in the stock market. And over time, slowly but surely that goes away. But at some point you have to kind of decide what your level of participation is in the stock market. And right now we are on an absolutely fantastic run. Absolutely fantastic run. Do I believe the market's a little ahead of itself? Absolutely. If you guys remember I started on the Wednesday video, I started talking about I want to leave all the really high flyers alone. Like in the videos of the world, the Google, the Amazon, the world. Has there already had their runs? I was more concentrating on Apple. If you guys remember Apple and Tesla and Meta, stocks were coming off the bottom of the channels. And those are the stocks that broke out and continued to run while their names like Nvidia a little bit got gassed out. And there is a situation that I could see in front of me that there is an exhaustion cycle developing. Now all of this exhaustion cycle is, let's look for example at Google for example, right? So all of the exhaustion cycle is after a big, big run up, the stock is just tired. The same way they continue to sell the stock. Like here's an example here in February, right? So February they had this big, big run, right? It just got tired, okay? So it came in for the next two weeks, and the sellers finally exhausted themselves and the stock went back higher. It works exactly the same way, the opposite way when the market has a big, big run. So if you look at Google for example, Google in the last two weeks has gone from 104 to 126. That's a pretty damn big move, right? Put in this inverted hammer, which basically is telling you it's tired. It's not the top of Google. It's not, this is it, the 2023 highs. It just means for a cycle, right? Whether that cycle is one hour, one day or a week, we don't know, but it just shows you there is a lack of commitment at these levels. That's it. And the stock organically needs a comfortable level to back test a little bit just to kind of at least test the five-day moving average, as you can see off this orange line and create a new base. That's all it is. And I think a lot of stocks going into this week are facing a lot of the same characteristics. Google definitely one of my favorites going into this week for a potential back test. You have NVIDIA, right? NVIDIA had a really, really big run. There was a nice little pivot. We had Friday to the downside. We'll get to the pivots in a second. But I'm looking for stocks. And again, it doesn't mean it's every stock, but I'm looking for stocks that kind of like, oh, I need a break, right? I need a break. I need a couple of days to kind of, you know, just get my win back just to relax a little bit to kind of maybe set up for the next move up. And I think it's just healthy. The last thing you want is the biggest perma-bolts, right? To come out and go, yeah, I can't be chasing stocks up here. And that's the last thing which you want to do. And when you get a parabolic move like we saw, you know, like we saw Wednesday in the Thursday session on the Qs. I mean, just from Wednesday, check this out, guys. Just from Wednesday, we went from 327 to 338. $10 for just in a 12-hour cycle. That's a pretty damn big statement. And again, this is one of those scenarios we want to watch going into the next week, that if they are tired, we are prepared off at the bottom of the range so we can take advantage on the downside potential back-test move. So here's the levels I'm watching for next week. Guys, on the Qs, watch this 335 level, right? That's Friday's lows, okay? So if we could start building below 335, which is Friday's lows, I think there's a shot we back-test into the five-day. What's cool about the five-day is if you want to establish a new long position, that's the area you want to bounce the market. Because if you look at the Qs, every single time they hit this orange line, which is the five-day, what happened, right? They bounce, they bounce, they bounce, they bounce, they bounce. So if we can get a 335, a scenario we could play both ways. So if we could get a 335 breakdown in the Qs, then we could possibly get a move down to this 331, 332 area, and then you could cover your short if you are that aggressive which bias back to the long side. It's just such a scenario that I want to play out. Same thing with Google, same thing with a name like Google, for example, right? Just if one goes, they're all going to go. I definitely want to watch the bottom of the range of Google. Again, if you are brand new to technical analysis, inverted hammer is, that is what he's word bearish, but it's a short-term cell signal. So if you see, you know, if you see, like there was an inverted hammer here, the next couple of days started rolling over. Let's see here where there's an inverted hammer here, the next day went down. There was an inverted hammer here, the next day we went down. So it doesn't mean we're going to go down for three weeks. It just means that a cell signal has been put into play and you can take advantage. Maybe it lasts for one day, maybe it lasts for one hour, maybe it lasts for one day or one week, one month, we don't know. But at least we are prepared for that channel. So Google starts confirming down the bottom of the range. Sure, maybe it could mirror the Qs and go down to the five-day as well. Same thing with the video, right? Same thing with the video. We had a nice little pivot on Friday on the video. I'm watching the bottom channel on the video as well. If this starts losing the bottom channel, here's the five-day moving average as well. So that's the short side, right? That's the short argument because, again, we always want to be prepared on both sides. There's still a lot of really good-looking setups to the upside. I mean stocks that are still coming off the bottom of the range that didn't fully participate in the rally or they're just still relaxing. Like Layla, let me give you an example, right? Uber. Uber's a really great-looking move, right? Uber had a phenomenal move, talking about a massive, massive move. And like what we just discussed a couple of minutes ago about a stock just gets tired, right? Uber got tired. Just think about it. It ran from 29 to 39 in two weeks. And here it just got tired. So what happened the next couple of days, kind of the thesis that I have for a couple of these names going into Monday, it got tired and it gave a sell signal that started coming into three, four days. Now it rebounded, right? Reclaimed the five-day moving average. And now it's just kind of basing here on the top of the range here. If this week, if it starts basing, finally breaks above this channel here on May 18th and you can start this mix leg up. So that's the whole point, right? Big run, got tired, came in, right? Now reclaimed and now it's ready to go higher again. Look at Shopify, right? Shopify had a really nice quarter. Again, another example of a big, big run, right? Inverted hammer. Remember we just saw an inverted hammer? It's a sell signal, right? So what happened? The stock started coming down, two, three, four, maybe even a week now, okay? The point is the inverted hammer is going to give you a really good sense of what's about to happen next despite of what you think is going to happen next. And that's a very, very important point to kind of put the pieces to the puzzle. And now the key is can Shopify get back above and reclaim the 10-day moving average this week? I won't watch it. There is definitely some short-term call buyers came in from the 62s, the 63s, the 65s, the 66s. Who knows? Something's up, maybe nothing. But the point is I definitely want to watch the top of the range this week. If it starts reclaiming, it can start waking up. Apple, right? Apple broke out this week. Obviously, any dips we definitely want to keep an eye on. Meta broke out this week. Again, look for any dips we want to look out for. Look at a name, for example, like Tesla, right? Obviously, Tesla's my favorite stock. This week it did what it had to do. Took out two big levels here. We traded both those levels this week. This 170 went into the 174s. And then Friday got above this channel here. Most important, reclaim the 50-day moving average. And this is the highest close in this whole formation. The key is if Tesla can just get above this whole channel here for this week, right? There's a whole gap here to around the 190 area. And speaking of option flow, they were coming in for the 190, excuse me, they were coming in for the 200s, the 205s. They even saw some 215s for the next couple of weeks out of expiration. So if the market continues, or they're just a rotation from stocks that are coming off the top to coming off the bottom, a name like Tesla, if it confirms Friday's channel, it can really start stretching, especially the option flow, institutional money flow, continues to move. Other than that, it's a very stock-specific market. A lot of names are breaking out. The name we talked about a couple of days ago. ACVA, I started buying this thing a couple of days ago. Nice looking chart. It's not sexy. There's nothing mass appeal about it. But these charts are just working. It's just big moves, consolidates, reclaims, goes again. And these names have been working. Obviously, you have to start looking at charts that are coming off the bottom, so they're coming off the top. That's a safety issue. Kind of what we talk about all the top, not jumping off the 10th floor, if the first floor, in case you're wrong, you got a skinny instead of a severed head. So that definitely applies to this type of market. So if you're looking at the Qs, again, a 335, definitely keep an eye on this week for potential reversal back down. Names like NVIDIA, Google. I'm sure there's so many other names that have big, big runs. But I'm just trying to concentrate on one or two. You don't need 10 if you have one or two that could provide the same amount of value. If you look at all the other indexes, spies broke out this week again. You have the diamonds represented down general industrial average. It's playing a little bit of catch-up again. It's 30 stocks versus 100 in the NASDAQ and 500 in the S&P. The diamonds need to get above this 337 level, right? 337 level to really wake up. The IWM, again, has definitely been the red-headed stepchild in this whole rally. It is basically not participating because it's still stuck in this whole massive supply zone. For me to get interested on another broad-cap market rally, they're going to have to reclaim at least 181 in the close if you're trading the IWM to wake up. Look, I think there's definitely some good two-sided opportunity this week. I'm definitely watching for any type of clues for reversal oil, both in the NASDAQ, in the video, Amazon. You can spread it out through anything else if you want anything that had a high-flying appeal this week. The key is always, guys, always be prepared on both sides of the market. We have a thesis. We have a bias going into the day based on research, but if that bias quickly changes based on price action, you can't be a stubborn mule trying to recreate a wheel that doesn't want to be recreated. It's very, very important to understand that our opinions are cool, but price action is more important. Guys, have a blessed, blessed weekend. Stay healthy. Have a smile on your face. You only get one shot at this live. Might as well make the most of it. God bless, everybody. I'll see you all on Monday. Take care.