 My assignment here was to give, start out with kind of a primer on Latino vote, a primer plus I think is the way to Marjorie Covey put it on. So we're switching from the anecdotal on the personal of the story of one politician to a few numbers here and bear with me to try and give a sense of what we know about the Latino vote and why it matters and where. So the reason why we care about it is growth in numbers. The startling very fast, very rapid growth of the Latino population, starting with as the current wave of migration got going in the 1970s and the way it's projected to grow out through the rest of the century. That translates into a growing share of the population, somewhere over 15%, now headed based, depending on whose projections you believe, towards a quarter of the population at mid-century, somewhere in that regard. This is the basic gut reason why people care about the Latino vote, the simple growth in numbers, growth at a time that the rest of the population, excuse me, isn't growing very quickly at a time when the non-white population in particular is basically stagnant in terms of its size as is the African-American population. Beyond the numbers, this change in population has brought about a change in the character of the country in terms of its racial makeup. This graph shows you simply the percent of the population that is classified as non-Hispanic white in different age cohorts. And if you look at the older population, people 65 and above, that was a country that was 80% white. You go down in age to the population that's now less than five years old, and you're talking about a country that's about half white. This is a fundamental, dramatic, extraordinary change in the nature of our society. And to my mind is as important as those numbers in explaining why the Latino vote matters. To a certain extent, the Latino population is viewed as the vehicle for this change. A great deal of agency is ascribed to the Hispanic population in terms of bringing about this change. There's a much longer conversation about why this happened, what the factors involved were in terms of attracting immigrant workers, changes in fertility, all kinds of different factors. There's an enormous protagonist that's ascribed to Hispanics as being the population that brought about this fundamental change in the country. There is, however, a very profound disjuncture between this reality and what happens at the voting booth, because you can see the very deep change happens among young people. If you look at a school yard, it's a very different America than if you look at a workplace or a retirement home, but school children don't vote. They only depend on voters. So you have to ask how that population growth happened. What were the engines of it? And there are basically two ways populations grow. One is by birth. If you have a lot of babies, you have more babies than other segments of the population, that segment of the population grows faster. That's what happened among Hispanics, particularly mothers who were born outside the United States, immigrant mothers, have had fertility rates significantly higher than that of native-born, whether they be Latino or white, and even native-born Latino women have had higher fertility rates than white women. But a child takes 18 years to become a voter. There's no way around that. It's simply a chronological process. That 50% America of under five years old will become the electorate sometime 15, 20, 25 years from now. The America that votes is quite different. Additionally, the other mechanism for growth, one that was very important to the Hispanic population at the early stages of its growth, is immigration. And as we all know, a large share of Hispanic immigrants have come here without authorization, and as a result, aren't eligible for citizenship. And so they're not voters now. They won't be voters unless there's some substantial change in the law. So this produces a very peculiar kind of math in terms of how you get from population to electorate. The fact of the matter is that almost 60% of all Latinos, 58% in 2010, aren't eligible to vote, either because they're too young, that's about something more than a third of the total population, or they're not citizens, which is about another quarter of the population. They're simply, on election day, they have no role to play. They have no voice in our civic affairs. You compare that to other racial segments of the population just to get a sense of it. So about 42%, 43% of the Hispanic population is eligible to vote compared to 77%, 78% of the white population, 67% of the African-American population that has a larger share of young people, and there is a proportion of immigrants. And even quite smaller than the Asian population, in part because the growth has been driven so much by births. So we'll do the math. About with 50 million people, you subtract the under 18s, you get to 33 million adults, subtract the non-citizens, you get to 21 million voters. You've taken out a whole lot of people from that initial impression, the impression of size and growth and change in the country to actual political muscle. When you then look at registration, these are 2010 numbers, you get substantial under activity and in voting as well. So you go from 50 million people to 7 million voters in the 2010 election. Even if you figure in a presidential election, you'll get substantially more, you're still going to go from 51, 52 million to maybe 12 million voters, 11 million voters. It's a very wicked bit of math in terms of going from population to voting power. Beyond that, there's geography. Where do these voters sit? They're highly concentrated in a few places. As you can see, about 54% of all Latino voters are in three states, none of which matters in a presidential election. They're all already decided. If you throw in Illinois, Massachusetts, a few other, the other states with substantial Hispanic populations that are already basically decided, you get up to about 60%, 65%, depending on how you count it, of Hispanic electorate. This is of those 21 million who can vote who are sitting somewhere that doesn't really matter. If you look at battleground states, so this is share of total turnout in 2008, calculations by Nate Silver at 535, 538.com. Florida obviously matters a lot. 15% of the total vote in 2008 was Latino. Florida is also totally so generous. Raises the question of why we should have a discussion about, you can't talk about a Hispanic vote. The first piece of evidence in that is Florida, which is a complete outlier in every way in terms of its politics, but especially in terms of its Hispanic politics and not just because of the old Cuban Republican vote, but because of new Puerto Rican voters, new naturalized Latin, South American voters, a whole hodgepodge of voters. In central Florida, you've got a Latino population that doesn't look like a Latino population anywhere else in the country, a mix of Puerto Ricans off the island, Puerto Ricans who've come from New York and people who've come from Latin America. Beyond that, you get into some of the states where you've got substantial representation that are currently on the map. In this case, really Colorado and Nevada are the only two states with more than 10% Hispanic voters that are currently considered battleground states. The other element of the Hispanic vote that you've got to consider, particularly when you're looking at the Mexican-American vote in the inner mountain west, is that it operates in a very narrow partisan band. George Bush did very well in 2004 getting 40%, maybe 42% of the Hispanic vote nationally. Bob Dole did very poorly getting 35%, maybe 33%. A Democrat that gets 60% is considered to be just basically hanging on, 65% is considered doing well. You're talking about a very narrow margin of difference. They're very consistent in terms of the partisan split. So you're talking in these states, in Colorado and Nevada, very narrow potential differences that could, if you, in an election decided by a whisker, you're talking about whether a 4%, 5% shift in the Latino vote in Colorado will produce a .2%, .3% difference in the total vote. Well, that might actually make a difference. And the way the maps are playing out, it could make a difference. Meanwhile, the big battlegrounds, the places where the election is really going to be decided, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, there's no, there's not a Latino vote to speak of. So you end up in this election, in my mind, very nearly arguing this out where the Latino vote could shift the presidential election in relatively few places. I mean, you could be overly small about it and talk about certain areas of Las Vegas and Denver metropolitan areas where a couple of 100,000 Latino voters going one way or another, a split of 70, 30 instead of 60, 40 ends up making a difference. That becomes a very difficult way to run a large scale political mobilization. I'm going to leave, I mean, I've been told my time is up, so I'm just going to point very quickly to the other reason we care, which is looking to the future. There's population, as we saw at the beginning, and that 50% America, is very heavily Latino. You've got, and they're all citizens. Under 18 years old, you don't get a lot of immigrants. About 92% of them are eligible voters. Of the 17 million Latinos under 18 years old. And they end up being a very significant share of that electorate. If you, so look at 15 to 19 year olds, the oncoming voters in the next two cycles. You've got about 6.7 million Latinos out of 22 million total. That means about 30%, almost one out of every three voters who's aging into the electorate in the future will be a Latino. And that's, in a very large sense, what I'll conclude with is the discussion of Latino voters is a discussion about the future of politics, not about this cycle. And where this cycle could have a big difference is how it casts trajectories looking to the future. And what it does to these people, to the young people who are watching this election, and we're going to be coming on stream in very large numbers in the next couple of presidential cycles and could have a huge impact going forward. Thank you, and we'll talk about this more. Thanks.