 Hello and welcome to the Monday market update with me Dave Madden today's date is Monday the 5th of November 2018 And the time was just gone 1250 GMT It's been a fairly quiet beginning to the week to be honest We had a big sell-off in Asia overnight The latest figures the service figures from China the decition survey of Chinese of Chinese services We're actually quite disappointing. It showed lower growth on the month on top of that and actually missed expectations We heard from the Chinese president. You talked about the benefits and was promoting free trade policy or trade this good discussing open and global trade and also argued against the the negatives of protectionist policies that they didn't really kind of a Talk investors around actually buying into the market It is worth pointing out that the the trade swap between the US and China is not very much going on See some the Chinese president was clearly making his point of view very clear That is in favor of trade and opposed to collections policies But until traders actually until traders actually here that we actually have some sort of a green between Washington DC and Beijing We're like it's like it's actually going to remain just like it's likely Investors will remain a bit a bit skeptical of the of the entire situation Has been a fairly quiet morning here in Europe in terms of economic indicators We have some services figures out from the UK which we're disappointing and we also have been disappointing a better confidence surveys from the Eurozone European market abroad the a bit higher and this afternoon are also seen a slightly higher open on the Dow Jones and also on the SP 500 Taking a quick look at the week ahead Week ahead can be found on a website if you go to cmcmarkets.com and under news and analysis And if you scroll down you find this article So on Tuesday, we have a the internet decision from the RPA the Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday We've also a raft of PMI PMI reports from a number of countries around the world On Tuesday and also looking at you Thursday over in the US We have the midterms. We also have the Fed meeting on Wednesday We are first-half figures from M&S on Thursday and the early hours of Thursday morning We look trade figures from from China bearing in mind the trades back between Beijing and and also Washington DC These figures could be actually very very important Keep up on Thursday. We have first-half figures from Sainsbury's on Thursday We also have third quarter numbers from Dropbox over in the US on Thursday We also have fourth quarter figures from Walt Disney and on Friday. We have third quarter at UK GDP Take a look now at some of the major markets and see how they're getting on like I was saying The footsie and co were in negative territory, but they're now actually the shown gains on the day I'm starting off on the footsie 100 and I'm looking at a weekly chart because I want to talk about this red line here at the 200 week moving average And also, we're actually back. Well comfortably back above the 20 week moving average and even though It's not even though we're still a long way away from the highs that we saw in May And we still have we still haven't really caught up the ground that we lost in October and September While we hold above the 200 week moving average at that is that that could be a positive sign For the footsie 100. So the footsie the day to the week moving average comes to play 6961 that we're currently on 7125 of the footsie 100. So while we hold above the this red line here The journey week moving average is likely we could see further gains on the footsie 100 If you do like to press on higher from here, we could be looking heading towards this area here Which comes into play at seven thousand two hundred and twenty basically the kind of that the lows of early September So seven thousand seven thousand two hundred twenty seven thousand two hundred fifty That sort of region if you were to kind of push on higher from here If you do though fall back below the 20 the 200 week moving average I'm gonna take off the most recent low here this this this this mark here at six thousand eight hundred and fifty That would suggest we could be head for heading lower We could be heading back down towards the February lows of six thousand eight hundred and thirty nine And if you go below that we could be like we head back down towards the lows of December 2016 at six thousand six hundred and eighty two Take a look now on the the DAX to your market Simulation again. We're starting off looking at the two and a week movie to the weekly chart to keep an eye on this red line Here the two and a week moving average and the DAX wasn't probably we definitely in worship to the footsie 100 Actually, we're now managed to actually hold back above the two and a week movie average Which is a good sign for the DAX But obviously we're still in very much in a downward trend that began in June That's a classic example of lower lows and lower highs But in the near term while we hold above this electric here the turning 200 week moving average We come to the plane just shy to south of eleven thousand five hundred currently on eleven thousand five hundred and thirty five At the moment it can hold above eleven thousand five hundred. They're there they're about We could see further games being made on the on the DAX if you did look to push on higher from here We could be looking heading back towards this area here eleven thousand 692 and if you go beyond that we could be looking up towards the kind of big psychological number of 12,000 and 12,000 isn't a million miles away from this trend line resistance, which is coming to play So if you go beyond 12,000 that the ten line resistance make them into play 12,050 Should we turn lower actually we should move back below the turn of the moving average We could be looking heading back down towards 11,000 Take a look now. What's going over on the S&P 500 in the US? Starting off at the with the wider view if you draw a low trend line between the lows of February 2016 and the lows of November 2016 We get this trend line here, which is actually respected quite nice nicely only last week As you can see here the market trader right down to this trend line here in around the kind of 2600 mark and then I should manage to push higher Let's do a minute now So you can see you can get a better view of what's going on. So the market came down to this trend line sort of pushing higher Notice how there was a decline in negative momentum and actually unless we swing to positive momentum So actually pushing higher so the for the time being the and the upward movies be confirmed by the decline and they get subsequent turn to positive Positive momentum But the area that I said that is privy to be a bit difficult to recapture is this red line here the 200 day moving average at 2736 sharing with beyond that we could be making a back up towards 2800, but if you manage to turn over itself You could be looking at it back back back lower and retesting the 200 day moving average I'm sorry We could be looking at turning turning over I had backed up towards the recent lows and possibly looking at retesting this trend line support, which you can to play just north of 2600 and if you do have a break below 2600 that would would suggest we could be looking at further losses on the S&P 500 Take a look now what's going on on the gold market So with the with the gold market here It's been broadly been pushing higher since mid since mid August It's found it really difficult to kind of really kind of power ahead But nonetheless, it's it's been pushing higher over the last number of months While that holds above this area here at 12 14 It's likely we could see further gains being made on the on the gold market If you look to kind of push it higher from here If you were looking at it heading up towards 12 50 and if you go beyond 12 50 We could look toward this area here at 12 65 If the market turns over on itself and as a fairly size would break below 1200 Sorry below 12 12 14 We could look at it back down towards 1200 and I love and a break below 1200 You take it out towards these loads here in next September at 11 a 3 11 a 4 The oil market is in a spin has been in focus a lot the last the last few weeks Heavy gain sustained on the oil market as of now the United States has a pretty tough sanctions imposed on Iran at the end basically put political pressure on Iran But as of as we found out on Friday, there are eight countries which are excluded from the exemptions So number of countries can continue to purchase oil from around so so as a way of actually not completely having a Shop to the oil supply market and driving the price higher So because of that we actually are seen further be further pressure being kept all the oil market And if you take a look at the the Brent oil market, we can see that after reaching a multi year high in early October It's been a fairly fairly aggressive downward move We've fallen below this red line here at the Trinity moving average which comes into play at 74 spot Oh five and to be honest while we hold south of the Trinity moving average I it's likely we could see further losses on the on the oil market But if you do look to kind of push further lowering again From here, we could be looking any back down towards the August low just north of $70 per barrel and he moves to the upside in breakthrough at all Maybe what resistance in around the 75 dollar barrel mark and if you go beyond that resistance may come into play at this yellow line here Which is the one of them will be average which comes in the play at 76 spot 80 sticking with the Oil theme. Let's take a look now. It's going on on WTI WTI market is actually even in fairly worship Then the then the Brent market. So similarly with WTI which an old time which sorry apologies Reached a multi-year high in October must have been in a fairly aggressive downward move since then Notice how the market actually trade Firmly below the Trinity moving average with this red line here But it bounced when it bounced back up towards the Trinity moving average it managed to act as resistance and I was actually been being pushing lower yet again and Notice how the recent lows here. I should take up actually should take out the lows of mid-June So if you do that, you can put push lower from here We could be looking any back down towards the early all April lows of 61 spots 78 and if you take our 61 spots 78 We could be looking at any back down towards the psychological born $60 per barrel and he was the upside in WTI Maybe a little resistance in around the $65 a barrel mark with the big area to keep on that for will of course be the Trinity moving average at 62 spot 67 spot 64 this this this area here This is actually a good example of how old support can be called new resistance Notice how the Trinity moving average act as a support back in August, but once the market actually Traded firmly below it in October if I had a very difficult to get back up other again So if metric has been important in the past it makes it more likely makes it more likely that will be important again in the future So keep an eye out for the Trinity moving average on WTI Take a look look now at the currency markets Let's take a look at the euro versus the US dollar essentially You're you're the wider trend has been very much of the downside since between April and August Your dollars been very much in a downward trend the euro stage a fairly decent comeback between mid-August and late September But but fortunately the currency that you can be buckled under the pressure of the euro of the US dollar yet again So we're going to heading back down south if you take out the the one 13 area I would point to a point that would be quite negative because because it's the recent lows the August lows and if you take out one 13 Then we'll point the further losses We could really get it back down towards this area here in a one one spot 11 11 Which levels haven't really been seen since June 2017 If you managed to push higher on your dollar the 115 spot got a 115 10 area could could act as resistance It's been a fairly important metric before the last number of months So it could act as a potential barrier to a rally in the euro dollar if you managed to kind of push beyond that I'll then keep an eye out for the one or two moving average this yellow line here Which comes into play at one spot 1584 Take a look now at a finally pound dollar It's this is this has been dragged around largely because the brexit brexit The brexit chatter the economic indicators of the UK have been by and large been positive I know we had some poor service figures out this morning But largely speaking the economic indicators from the UK have been decent But anything positive or negative comments or even chatter about brexit is actually has been the biggest impact on the pound the recent months So Sterling had a bit similar to your dollar had a fairly decisive sell-off between August Sorry between April and August as a Which which a fairly decent comeback since then, but we have seen a fair bit of ground lost And and the positive move that we see out we saw at the back end of last week the gains largely has been held So we're trading just below the 130 mark That's probably going to be it's likely to be a key level if we if you can't get above 130 We can really keep turning over on myself and falling back into the wilder trend It's been in play and back head back down toward the August low of one spot 2661 if you can manage to reclaim 130 and actually build from there We'll give anything any back up towards the one spot one spot 3250 area I also want to talk about a couple of the Couple of webinars and seminars that we have coming up if you go to our website seems in markets calm and under learn And they think about webinars and events. You can say that tonight Monday the 5th of November At 1900 GMT 7 p.m. Here in the UK We have the third development program, which is a webinar which you sign up for We also have the part two of that webinar on Monday the 12th of November We've other also events and webinars both both online webinars and in-person seminars Which are which you are feel free to attend to also if you have any comments made on this video or any of the videos You've been here at CMC. Please feel free to leave a review on bigger base. That's all for this week. Thank you very much