 Welcome back folks, it's Jacob Shoup, filling in for Tom O'Brien. We are still sideways, most of the market for the day at least, trading at $5,111 in the US, mid-year, 1986 in the Russell, $17,934 in the NQ, about .31%, and then gold, we are up 1.12%, $2,410 roughly. Take a look over here. This is theOrd-Oracle.com. Now Tim Orrd is a regular guest on the Tom O'Brien show. We have all come to really love his analysis. And Tim Orrd, we also have a few of his webinars, his archives on TFNN.com under the Services tab. Strongly recommend checking those out. That is a great source of information, especially if you're working on becoming a technician yourself. I believe we have Tim on the line right now. Tim, are you there? Yep, I'm here. So... What do we got? Actually, well actually right now we look at gold, but really the thing to look at right now I think is actually the market. I can kind of, I don't know where to, we can actually, okay, in a nutshell, I did go long on Friday and the reason why I did get some panic in the ticks and trend on Friday's clothes and I did, on Friday we had clothes on the trend of 2.5 and we had a 433 down tick reading. That's a bullish combination, it's just a low of, as early as that day of the reading to as late as two days later, which will be today. And so I'm thinking today is probably the low that we can go through that and I'll show you my analysis. But yeah, I'll start with chart one. Give me one second to get it up. All right. Let's see here. All right, we have chart one up, this is SBX. Right, it's the SBX and this is actually a monthly chart and I don't know, but for the last couple of weeks I've been saying we're probably going to stall in here and the market finally did and the reason why is just a simple method of anyhow, the middle, the second window, or yeah, the second window down from the top is a monthly SBX and every time you get the trading range, how you pronounce it, if you get 50% of the trading range above the upper Bollinger band on a monthly timeframe, usually the next month is consolidation. We actually had that, it looked like February didn't quite do it and I was kind of looking at it, but in March we did, we closed more than 50% above the trading range above the middle Bollinger band suggesting that April could see a consolidation and that's reason why I kind of got out of the market and waited for that consolidation. So now we're consolidating, so where are we going to go from here? Let's go to page two. All right, give me a second. Or chart two. All right, we have, give me one second actually, that's chart three. Let's see, chart three, I see, that's my fault. Let's get it out. Chart two right now. All right. Perfect, got it up. All right, chart two, this is a weekly SBX middle window and the window below that is the XPX VIX ratio. And the only thing I want to point out on this, this is a weekly timeframe as the market goes up and the SBX VIX ratio, which is the window below the SBX, if it makes lower highs as the SBX makes higher highs, that's an immediate term bearish sign. And all the pink areas identify those times where the market went up and that ratio would make higher or lower highs where the SBX made higher highs. Over the last several months, the SBX is making higher highs and that ratio is also making higher highs. We did have a pullback here, but I don't think there's anything meaningful. The reason why the VIX never responded really until the market really went down, didn't respond going up into the highest stage, making higher highs as the SBX were making higher highs. Now we got a pullback. Well, the VIX does go down when the market, the VIX does go up when the market goes down and that's what we're going right now. And so, let's say the market makes a higher high here and the SBX VIX ratio makes a lower high, then that's something to worry about. We don't, that hasn't happened yet because the SBX has not made a higher high. So that's something worth watching as we go forward here. But I do think we're, on an immediate term scale here, there's nothing to really worry about. There's not anything that's jumping out at me that this is a major top. We're going to go down and split in half the market. Nothing like that. Matter of fact, as we get going here, I'm probably saying they're probably making a low today. So let's go to chart three. Okay. We're up. All right. It's chart three. The bottom window is the NYSE advancing issue divided by the NYSE total issues and you take a 10-day average of that. And what you're going to come up with is a swag breast thrust indicator. And that is when the readings hit below 0.4, which we did yesterday, we hit 0.35 on the clothes and that market. And if this racial analysis, the NYSE advance divided by the total and to take a 10-day average of that, that reaches 0.6 within the next 10 days. We call that as a swag breast thrust indicator and suggest a bold move and a market's coming. So the next 10 days, we get a reading about 0.6, then I think we'll have a rally that's similar that was started last October, pretty much straight up again. So I think this is just a minor sideways pattern. It hasn't happened yet, but this next rally in the next 10 days, which is basically two weeks from today, if we're at 0.6 or higher, then we're going to have a real significant move coming over the summer. So we'll have to wait and see if that develops. But I'm just putting that out right now, something I'll be watching for because we did get the oversold condition. Now we need to get to 0.6 if that happens in the next 10 days. I think the market actually has capabilities of doing that. We'll have to wait and see though. Let's move on to chart four. Okay. I'm chart four up now. Chart four, this is the second window up from the bottom is the SPX VIX ratio again. And every time you get below the lower Bollinger band, which we did yesterday, and the last time we did that came at the October low and the time before that, there was a minor low in 2000, October 2000 looked like 21, but anyhow, when that ratio gets way below its lower Bollinger band, you're always looking for a low. So we're probably in the vicinity of a low according to the VIX type indicators. So that's one reason why I'm bullish here. Yeah, we get the sound coming on. Yeah, definitely. I want to talk a little bit more on chart four when we get back. You know, right now, we're trading the S-mini at 5101. Let's see where we get when we come back. Tim, stay right there. Welcome back, folks. We're here with Tim Ord of the Ord Oracle before we went to the break. We were talking about some potential bottoming patterns in the SPX. You know, work on addiction. Tim Ord, you still there? Yep, I'm still here. Fantastic. So we're on chart four right now. Right, chart four. Now, basically, if you look at the bottom window, I put a Bollinger band on the VIX, and any time you get above the upper Bollinger band or actually below the Bollinger band on a closing basis, the market is going to reverse, and that's what we had yesterday. You can look over the prior right window. You can see you're above the upper Bollinger band on the SPX VIX ratio since it flips it upside down. Right. You're below it. You know, what happens, you got it down too fast. So I do a lot of stuff with the VIX because it really gives a good indicator. If it goes too fast, one direction, a lot of times it reverse. So the other, let's go to chart five, and I'll do it some other ways, too. I measure the acceleration of the VIX in, like, three different ways. The top window is the VIX, the next window down is the SPX or the SPY. Next window down is %B for the VIX, and the next window down below that is the rate of change of the VIX, and the bottom window is the RSI for the VIX. So what those three indicators do is measure the velocity of the VIX. So if it kind of just gradually goes up, usually that's a death sign for the market. If it just rockets up, it's just got up too fast, too quick, and it's going to reverse. And I got circled three, those three indicators half circled, and they all reached, you only need two out of three, but all three reached, I guess, bullish levels on yesterday's close. So they all kind of, the VIX just went up too fast, actually kind of surprised me yesterday was down, but it does, market does what it does. But there's another indicator that you're probably at a low here, you know, today. So let's go down to it. So there's multiple indicators essentially suggesting that we might be making a bottom at this level. Yeah, we are making a bottom at this level. So I do a lot of stuff with the VIX. So let's go down to the daily charts and really get down to the nitty-gritty. And the bottom window is just the five-day arms that yesterday reached 1.2, and the next window up is a VIX. You can see a lot easier there where the VIX closed, you know, 5% of its trading range closed above the upper Bollinger ban yesterday. And that's a sign. And also, if you look at the volume, which is the next window up, this is the volume of the SPY. We broke below the previous flow, if you see those blue circles on the SPY or the blue circles on the volume issue, the previous flow, that was back on March 15th, I have a circle in the blue there, and that was the last flow. We broke that low yesterday, and I didn't do the exact calculation, but you broke that previous low about 15% lighter volume. If you break it on equal or greater volume, that means the decline is going to keep going. In other words, that will legitimate break to the downside. If you break it on 10% or lighter volume, that means a false break to the downside. So we have a false break to the downside, and so that means at some point we're going to reverse back upside again. And today, if you look at volume right now, this chart is several hours old, but volume is going to come in at least 20% lighter than yesterday. So the market really doesn't have energy to push below yesterday's low. It's trying to do it, but you need at least equal volume yesterday to push below yesterday's low. We're not going to be near it. And when I made this chart, the trend was 1.61, and right now we're at 1.43. Anything above 1.2 is bullish. So you're probably making a low. If the market can't take out the previous low with volume, which is yesterday's low, it will reverse take out the previous high, which is yesterday's high. So that'd be the minimum. But if you close above yesterday's high, you also close above the March 15th previous low, which is, I hope I'm getting that too confusing here, but the March 15th low, if you close above that low, you get the previous high back at the, you know, it looks like about 5.24 up there. So I hope that getting that too confusing here and probably going too fast, but there's a lot of things to do. And also if you look, I got the Bollinger's ban on the SPY there, if you see that. And if you notice, we closed below that Bollinger ban yesterday also, which is another kind of exhaustion move to the downside. So we're not going to go lower here. We're making a bottom. If we're going to go lower today's volume should be at least equal to yesterday's volume, but we're not even going to come close to that. So I'd say expiration week, which is this week's going to be an up week. Well, we get back to the old highs. I don't know if we have enough time to do that, but at minimum, we get back to yesterday's high, that'd probably be the minimum. So then from there, we'll have to wait and see. But I think we're making a worthwhile low here. And usually April of all the months of the year, November is the best month. The second best month is April. So we're seasonally wise, we're actually a good month. I think by the end of April, we'll be back up to the old highs if not breaking to new highs. So there's not the start of a big decline here. There's enough exhaustion moves to the downside to suggest we're making a minimum and a short-term low. It could be an intermittent term low. It depends how the market responds over the next two weeks. And that's judged by the his wag breast stress indicator. If we get above 0.6, then I think we're going to have one heck of a good, you know, probably April, May, and June, maybe even in July. We'll have to wait and see. So this is a regular kind of a consolidation or an uptrend is what this is all about. Well, we get down to that gap around that 500 area. According to what's going on now, I don't think so. So I have that gap there. If you look left part of the chart on the SPYs there, I have a gap label there. A lot of times gaps get filled and maybe it will, but it might be later this year. So we'll have to wait and see. But not all gaps get filled. Some people say, yeah, all gaps get filled. They don't. So but volume of today's volume is going to be light. I think this is probably the expiration week will be an up week. So fantastic. Well, then I think we have, you know, we we have a little bit left in this segment and a short one afterwards, but I see you have some stuff with gold, which I personally am interested in. See where you're looking at it. Of course, I was saying at the beginning of the show, Citigroup had increased its target, at least in 2035, around 2800. So I'm curious to see what you kind of have looking at gold. OK, we get time to start covering it now. We've got 20 seconds right now. And then when we get back from the break, we'll have about three minutes. OK. So what do we have? The weekly GDX and then the other one, right? Well, yeah, why don't why don't we just start talking a little bit about seven? We can talk a little bit when the music begins as well. So. OK, so we want to start now. Well, I think the music about to start right now. So you stay right there. Folks will be right back with Tim Ward. We'll talk a little bit about gold when we come back from the break. Welcome back. This is Jacob Schup with Tim Ward before we went to the break starting to look at gold. We have a short segment. Gold is currently trading at two thousand four hundred and six. I kind of want to see what you're looking at with it there, Tim. All right, part of this is chart number seven. Yeah, the bottom window is the cumulative advanced decline on the weekly timeframe. Next window up is the cumulative advanced or excuse me, the bottom window is the cumulative up down volume on the weekly timeframe. The next window up is the cumulative advanced decline for GDX and needs to close above the mid-ballinger band. And as of today, this week's not over yet. But as of today, we're above that mid-ballinger band. So if this actually gives us signal, a lot of signals last a year or one and a half years, sometimes even longer. The last signal is generated was back in January two thousand twenty one, pretty much stayed on a cell signal until right now. So if this if the market can remain, you know, sideways or higher here this week, that that's by signal we're made in force. So let's look to see where we are right now on a daily part. That's good chart eight. All right. And this this just measures the bottom window is just the 18 day average of the up down volume next window higher is the 18 day average of the advanced decline. So it's like three over three weeks of data. So by signals occur, which is basically a blue area on the chart when both those indicators are above minus 10. As long as those two indicators say above minus 10, the uptrend is intact. What I'm thinking is going on here is a five way count up. So we're pretty much high. We're up around plus 10 on both of them in that vicinity. So this is not really even getting close to a cell signal. But I think an alleyway five patterns up. We're in way four right now as on the GDX chart. I got it marked. So I think five way is to come probably in the next several days. So that's my view. Fantastic. Tim, thank you so much for joining us again. You will be on Thursday as well with Tom and we're really looking forward to that. So. All right. Guys, that was Tim Ord of the Ord Oracle dot com or to hyphen Oracle. Check it out. Thank you so much for joining me today. We will have Tom on tomorrow, which you definitely don't want to miss because we have a special guest and we have usual programming throughout the rest of the day. Thank you very much.