 Hey everyone, this is Dan. In the last two years, the stock price of Moderna has gone from about $153 to the peak of $497, then it started to drop. As of two days ago, that was Friday, May 12, 2023, it closed at $129.30. Where is it going next, up or down? We know Moderna's net income is almost completely from their COVID vaccines. With COVID fading, their revenues and profits have been dropping. Fortunately, Moderna has new products in the development pipeline. In the next few minutes, I will talk about Moderna's COVID vaccine revenues and potential revenues from their RSV vaccine, flu vaccine, and CMV vaccine. I will talk about my own price target for Moderna for the next few months. Stay tuned. Let's see how Moderna has been trending in the last year as compared to the broad market. Moderna has dropped 0.67%, while QQQ went up 11.64% and the S&P ETF spy went up by 4.91%. You can see that in some part of 2022, Moderna outperformed the broad market by a lot. That was due to the COVID vaccine. In the last six months, Moderna dropped 27.78% when QQQ went up by 13.87% and SPY was up by 4.17%. We will talk about what happened and where Moderna might go next. There are a couple of news items that are related to Moderna. On May 3rd, FDA approved the RSV vaccine developed by GSK. Moderna and a few other pharmaceutical companies have also been developing the RSV vaccine. Moderna will be competing for the sales of the RSV vaccines with the other companies in the next few years. This is a summary of the various RSV vaccines. GSK has been approved by the FDA. The vaccines by Pfizer, Moderna, and Sanofi are still in Phase 3. The four companies define the effectiveness of their vaccines differently, but they are all above 80% and all have good chances of getting approved. Of course GSK already has its vaccine approved. The total market for RSV vaccine is estimated to be $6 billion to $8 billion a year. If all four companies get their products approved, they will split that total among them. Moderna's share will probably end up to be about $1 billion to $1.5 billion a year, which is a small amount compared to the COVID vaccine revenue that Moderna was getting back in 2022. Moderna has made impressive progress with their cancer vaccine, which is administered together with the cancer drug Ketruda by Merck. This particular vaccine is still in Phase 2 and will take at least three to four years before it is FDA approved. At this point, if you think what I'm talking about is interesting, please click the like, subscribe, and notification buttons. We have a lot of things to cover. Let's continue. Thank you very much. Since the Moderna's skin cancer vaccine, when used together with Ketruda, is shown to be 44% more effective than Ketruda alone, it has the potential to enjoy the revenues similar to Ketruda's revenue, provided that the Moderna cancer vaccine is eventually approved to treat the types of cancers currently being treated by Ketruda. The Ketruda revenue in 2022 was about $21 billion, which is pretty impressive. This potential revenue from Moderna will probably not come to fruition until at least three to four years from now. This is a list of all the products in Moderna's development pipeline. They have four products in Phase 3, five products in Phase 2, 21 in Phase 1, and 11 in perclinical stage. Let's look at the valuation of Moderna. Since Moderna's revenue has been almost 100% derived from their COVID vaccines, let's look at the daily new cases and daily deaths of COVID for the entire world and for the US. The daily new cases have been declining in the last few months for both the US and the whole world. Daily deaths have also been declining. This is great news for humanity, but not very good news for the revenue and EPS for Moderna. We will talk about the revenue and net income numbers for Moderna in the next few minutes. If you look at Moderna's quarterly revenue and net income, they look very similar to the COVID chart in the last page. The bars went up in 2022 when COVID surged and then the bars have been declining since then. These are the 2023 first quarter financial results published by Moderna. The sales went from $5.9 billion in Q1 2022 to just $1.8 billion in Q1 2023. That was a very steep decline. The net income went from $3.6 billion to just $79 million, which is another very steep decline, unfortunately. In the May 4th, 2023 quarterly earnings announcement, Moderna management predicted 2023 sales to be approximately $5 billion. Moderna management also predicted the annual worldwide market sizes for COVID vaccines, RSV vaccines, and the flu vaccines. Moderna expects to launch the RSV vaccine in 2024. Of course, Moderna will have to compete with the other pharmaceutical companies for these potential income streams. For the long range projection into 2027 for RSV vaccine revenues, Moderna is predicting $8 billion to $15 billion with net margin ranging from 50% to 60%. Again, Moderna will have to split these potential sales and profits with their competitors. To estimate how much Moderna stock will be worth in the next couple of years, I first looked at the leading pharmaceutical companies and looked at their PE ratios. The average PE ratio is 20.17. I then estimated the sales for Moderna for 2024 to 2027 and used $5 billion as a sales for 2023, exactly as predicted by Moderna management. By assuming the net margins of 40% to 50% for these years, I arrived at these stock prices. From this range of numbers, I decided to set my own personal target for Moderna to be $110 a share by the end of 2023 and $150 a share by the end of 2024. At this point, I'd like to remind you that I'm not a financial advisor. These are my own personal targets that I'm sharing with you for education and entertainment purposes only. Since the stock price today is $129.30, I believe the price will drop as Moderna announced their Q2 and Q3 earnings, which will be much lower than the 2022 quarterly earnings. Let's look at what the other analysts have been saying about Moderna. The last time I looked at the analyst's opinions was December 23, 2022, between then and now the price of Moderna stock has dropped from $199 to $129. My target back then was that I thought Moderna would reach $175 a share by June 30, 2023. My new target is that it'll be $110 by the end of 2023. I expect a continued decline of the stock price from Moderna during 2023. Yahoo Business revised their high target from $506 to $430, revised the average target price from $219 to $218 almost unchanged, and lowered their low price target from $102 to $98. TipRanks.com reduced their high target from $506 to $430, increased their average target from $219 to $231, and increased their low target from $102 to $145. CEN Money upgraded the rating from hold to buy, but reduced their high target from $506 to $430, and changed their median target from $209 to $208 almost no change, and lowered their low target from $102 to $93. Loose Nevalier upgraded the quantitative rating from C to B. With regard to insider trading activities, they reached a peak in 2020 and have been slowing down, which is not surprising because the stock price has been dropping. The good news is that the insiders have not been dumping the company stock in the last 2-3 months. That means the insiders are still holding onto their shares, maybe expecting the stock price to go up eventually in the next few years. As the company gets more products developed and approved, their revenues, EPS, and stock price will certainly go up in the next two to three years. What are my trading strategies? First of all, I'd like to mention that I've been trading Moderna, and I've sold my last Moderna shares on January 18, 2023 at $199 a share, and I realized a small profit. I will swing trade shares based on technical indicators such as RSI, Bollinger Band, DMI, and MACD, and also I will look at macroeconomic issues and company news related to Moderna. I will not buy much until the next 9 COVID-related products from Moderna is approved by the FDA, which hopefully will happen in 2023 or 2024, In general, I will sell when the price fails to get support from a support level, or when it pulls back from a resistance level or when adverse news develops. And in general, I will buy when the price bounces up from a support level, or when it breaks above a resistance level, or when positive news develops. And I will update my Twitter subscribers about any Moderna related news, also about some of my trades. Let's talk about technical analysis. In the following charts, I will be showing the 50, 100, and 200-day exponential moving averages with the green, yellow, and red dashed lines. I'm here showing three panels. They are the hourly chart for Moderna, the daily chart, and the weekly chart. The stock price of Moderna is represented by the candlestick lines. We see the moving averages in dashed lines and upper and lower Bollinger bands. I also show the RSI, DMI, and MACD technical indicators. Ever since December of last year, Moderna has been trending down. We can see this yellow trend line which set the upper limit for the last four or five months. Unfortunately, the price dropped in the beginning of this month that was May of 2023, way before hitting the upper trend line, which is a very bearish sign. Today's price is also below the 50, 100, or 200-day exponential moving average. That's another bearish sign. The RSI value is very low, indicating that there might be a rebound pretty soon. On the weekly chart, we can see the historical support at around 115. That means the price might rebound when it gets closer to 115. Also, when Moderna is close to getting its RSV vaccine approved by the FDA, the stock price will start picking up again. For swing trading purposes, I might buy some shares when the price starts rebounding in the next couple of weeks. I will, however, manage my risks very carefully and will sell if the price does not hold up and ends up dropping more than a couple of percent from the intraday peak. In a bullish scenario, especially if Moderna's RSV vaccine gets approved by the FDA, the stock price might get above the resistance level 137 right here. It might even get back up to the trend line here at 147. Once it is at 147, it will most likely pull back, and that's where I will most likely sell my shares to take profit. I'd like to suggest that you're subscribed to my Twitter account, which is DanMarketL. For example, on December 22nd, 2022, I tweeted that I sold my Moderna shares, which I bought on December 20th at 2.5% gain. On January 18th, 2023, when the news came out that Moderna intended to file for FDA approval for the RSV vaccine, I bought Moderna shares. And then same day later, I sold those shares at 3.4% gain. Thank you for watching all the way to here. If you like what you're seeing so far, please click the like, subscribe, and notification button. As usual, I very much welcome your comments, suggestions, and questions. I'd like to remind you that I'm not a financial advisor. I share my stock trading strategies and analyses for educational and entertainment purposes only. If you want to buy or sell stocks, you should make your own decisions, and you should definitely consult with your financial advisors before you do so. This wraps up my video for now. I will chat with you again in the next few days. In the meanwhile, I'd like to wish you the very best of luck with your financial investments.