 Rwy'n credu bod yw'n meddwl, oherwydd yw'n meddwl. Yn ymgyrch chi'n meddwl, mae'n ddau'r ddau. Mae'n gweithio i amlwg ffordd sydd yn y ffóyr. Rwy'n meddwl i'n fffordd, ond mae'n meddwl i'ch talkedaniaeth. A rydym yn gweithio chi'n mynd i chi'n meddwl, gallwn eich ddydd ymlaen y ddau o'r sgwrs ymlaen. This event will be on record, a bit like Davina Macaul and Big Brother do not swear, if when the controving question is an answer session if you could identify yourself and your organisation that you're affiliated with, that would be helpful for that. Unfortunately, today services transpose for journalists may be entitled to join us by video, but we have Phillip Latyn, chief economist at the vice-president's office who is here today and hopefully might be able to join the debate later this afternoon but you're all very welcome as we know last month the commission published its 2016 country specific recommendations for Ireland and they are the subject to approval by the European Council later this month. It's been five years since the european semester process began and consideration of Ireland's country specific recommendations comes at a very interesting time this year when we have a new intake of students as it were and although it took longer than expected to get a government out of the formation playground they're very much in the classroom and ready for what will I think will be a challenging term and if we look at the recommendations there's quite a bit of homework to do in terms of what the commission has recommended including taking steps to broaden the tax base trying to reduce our vulnerabilities to external shocks and not least I assure brexit is on many people's minds to use our current rapid some I'd say perhaps too rapid growth to try and then reduce down or accelerate our debt reduction and there's also the need to continually finalise the debt solutions for for non-performing loans and the central credit registry is also an issue that has been highlighted in the recommendations and in terms of employment it's looking to incentivise employment in particular looking at low intensity households those where no one is working and also to improve access to affordable childcare and one thing we perhaps don't hear enough about is that the need to increase capital spending and to address key weaknesses that there are particularly around things like housing and water and public transport all of which are very much occupying the minds of our new ministers and at present so without further ado I'd like to welcome one of those ministers on Murphy the minister of state for financial services a government in commerce and welcome him to give the first working new addresses thank you it's two weeks since I was appointed as a minister of state in the department of finance and this is the first time that the officials have let me out since then um actually Durbal and I did a debate on brexit a podcast earlier in the week uh arguing for the UK to stay in and the day after polls showed that more were in favour of leaving so I'm going to try carefully here today folks um but it is uh I'm very pleased to be here to join you this afternoon at this event co-hosted by the the IIA and the representatives from the commission and it's a genuine privilege to be able to be here to discuss the annual publication of the commission's country specific recommendations and to do so with such a distinguished panel um I think this presents a useful opportunity to develop a shared view of the key challenges and the opportunities that are facing all of us in Europe but while also recognizing the the specific challenges and the individual approaches that countries such as Ireland can take and the overall name of the European semester process is essentially twofold to ensure fiscal sustainability and to promote economic growth and here at Ireland we're we're acutely aware I think of how an uneven and unsustainable growth trend can have a very real and a very damaging impact on people's everyday lives and the title of today's event reflects the context for many member states have undergone significant fiscal consolidation and the deficits and debt levels across the EU are reducing or or at the very least stabilizing and so our focus must be on how we can foster sustainable growth underpinned by sound fiscal policy that will then enhance people's qualities of life I mean given the sacrifices that people have made over the past number of years here in Ireland what can we now do given the position we're in to to make that burden a little lighter not just today but also tomorrow into the future and then protect those those gains that we have made when we can make them because the economic recovery here now is well underway Ireland registered what has been termed remarkable growth rate of 7.8% in 2015 and current projections also indicate this recovery is set to continue and both the Department of Finance and the Commission are forecasting a GDP growth of 4.9% in 2016 which again will put us at the top of the European League tables in this respect now this expansion of economic activity in Ireland was initially led by the exporting sectors but what we've seen in the last year in particular and we're forecasting it to continue into this year is that is growth now broadening out and being increasingly driven by domestic factors as confidence returns and households and businesses plan for the future so the draft 2016 stability program update which was published and submitted to the commission in April was part of the the ongoing European semester and the changes that we've made in the last number of years but because of the ongoing government formation talks which were lengthy and at sometimes tortuous having been involved in them this was done on a no policy change basis for 2016 but that said no policy change doesn't mean that we were standing still that update had to take into account demographic changes increases in public sector pay and investment in certain areas of capital spent now in that program update the Department of Finance forecast that the economy had the capacity to grow at around the 3.75% per annum over the medium term those rates aren't a given of course they rely on the right policy mix and as a small open economy Ireland must always remain cognizant of the challenges and the risks from abroad and our challenge of course today and our commitment as a government is to broaden the recovery across the country and to ensure that citizens across all of Ireland feel that uplift that's currently very much been experienced in Dublin and in other urban centres now the most tangible impact of the recovery has been on a jobs market with continued significant jobs growth and the quarterly data released just last week shows the number at work continued to grow and the level of employment is now just shy of the 2 million mark and I think quite remarkably we've seen 14 consecutive quarters of employment growth and importantly that growth is in almost every sector and it's in every part of the country so it's not just a doublans based job recovery and in parallel there's been a steady decline in the employment rate with the latest data showing that the unemployment rate has now fallen below 8% so when we go back to 2012 and the action plan for jobs that was brought in there by Richard Bruton and the government over 151,000 jobs have been created since then and given that success rate the programme for government that's recently been adopted by the new partnership government has affirmed this strategy as the best method to consult with all stakeholders and progress the best ideas on job creation across government. Coming down to the public finances underpinning the favourable economic conditions the improvement in Ireland's fiscal position provides a solid platform upon which funding for investment in our public services and public infrastructure can be provided for the years ahead. As Ireland reduced its deficit below 3% in 2015 the commission is part of its spring European semester package recommended to the council of ministers that Ireland's excessive deficit procedure be closed as anticipated that following the legal process at EU level the decision to close Ireland's procedure will be adopted by finance ministers this July. Now this is an important milestone for Ireland we've been subject to the corrective arm of stability and growth pact since 2009 and our exit from the corrective procedure is down to the sacrifices and the commitments that the Irish people have made and we're now subject to the preventive arm of the pact and this means that we move towards balancing the budget in structural terms and the programme for government sets 2018 as the timeframe to achieve this. The general government deficit is forecasted to be at 1.1% of GDP for this year and the projected fall is to 0.4% of GDP for next year. Now this move from the corrective to the preventive arm of the pact is a real game changer for this country when it comes to our finances and it comes to planning for the future and what we'll be able to do. It helps to ensure the long-term sustainability of the public finances it secures a continued reduction in our debt which is important and provides a positive environment for economic growth. Looking at debt just for a moment debt sustainability is of course key in everything that we do. It's key to saying public finances and Ireland's debt to GDP ratio has steadily fallen since 2012 when it peaked at just above 120% of GDP. This year gross government debt is expected to fall below the euro area average for the first time since 2009 to 89% of GDP and is projected to fall further in the medium term. If we look at reform and reform of our budgetary process that's a key part of the challenge that we now face I think as a new government and looking ahead into the future. Excuse me. We've had reform in recent years but further significant reforms are on the way. Later this month the government will publish its summer economic statements fitting out the room for budgetary manoeuvre next year and over the medium term. This will be followed by a national economic dialogue at the end of the month in which all stakeholders can have their say in the priorities for our economy and our society. There will also be greater parliamentary involvement in how we frame our budgets and how we decide our budgets and we're going to establish and at the moment doing its scoping work a new budget and finance committee a new budget oversight committee really to do that work and they'll be able to set up their own independent budget oversight office to do their own costings and their own work separate from the government and that'll hope to be in place by spring of next year. In this manner it's envisaged that a whole of your approach could be taken to budgetary formation with a greater focus on outputs and delivery moving away from the big bang budget day that we've had in the past moving away from this idea of the secrets being held closely until the final moment that they're revealed and the proposed new approach is intended to facilitate a more open budgetary process to allow stronger dialogue with the door on key elements and facilitate the continued central role of government in the development of budgetary proposals. What we want to see is the government working with the parliament to come together with a shared vision for the future of our budget formation over the coming years. So looking now to the future and what I might mean to invest in Ireland's future there is broad recognition that there's a strong case for increased public capital investment across the EU. This must however be implemented in a sustainable way ensuring value for money for the taxpayer and in full compliance with the fiscal rules. The program for government takes the first steps towards increasing public capital spending in priority areas by identifying the level of increased resources available. The program states, subject to Iraq's approval, that an additional four billion in extractor capital investment will take place up to 2021 and this will be allocated in such areas as health, housing, transport, broadband and education. The program for government also commits to a review of government priorities which are set out in the capital investment plan published last year and that will be undertaken by the middle of next year. This review will also provide the government with an opportunity to consider the scope for increased levels of investment if they are necessary and the reform budgetary process once underway will also provide an opportunity for the Iraqis to contribute to the determination of capital priorities. Now we're here today of course to discuss the European semester which culminates in the adoption of the annual country specific recommendations for each member state and as you're aware the European semester is a framework within which the EU's post crisis reform operate and whereby policy guidance informed by broad reform priorities agreed EU level is provided to member states. As with the process in 2015, the three main pillars and depending the 2016 country specific recommendations are the three reform priorities that are set out in the 2016 annual growth survey published in November. They are investment, structural reform and fiscal responsibility. The CSRs advocate a policy mix tailored to the challenges facing each member state and from Ireland's perspective we've been a consistent supporter of the economic governance reforms in the EU and the Euro area and given the interlinkages across member states policy guidance peer review and monitoring are essential to ensure a smooth functioning of the monetary union and promote sustainable growth in the EU. The commission published its proposals for 2016 country specific recommendations on the 18th of May. The commission proposed three recommendations for Ireland which addressed three broad challenges. One is the sustainability of the public finances including a broad tax base and improving value for money on the expenditure side. Number two is supply of side reforms including labour market activation policies and improving access to affordable childcare. Number three are financial sector policies including ongoing work to finalize durable restructuring solutions for non-performing mortgages and business loans and to operationalize the central credit register. Now we welcome the 2016 proposed recommendations because they align well with the national policy directions that are already firmly established focusing on policy areas where work is under way to address challenges that I think we've all acknowledged here in this country. These proposed CSRs can be seen as reflecting continuity with last year's process and they're informed by ongoing engagement between the commission and member states and are consistent with the no surprises principle. And this is what we should expect from a well functioning European semester process. Shared analysis supporting shared conclusions. Just to conclude briefly the economic recovery in Ireland was facilitated by the implementation of a wider range of reforms and significant fiscal consolidation and we must not become complacent and building on our own strong track record of reform delivery. We must continue to strive to implement reforms which will boost productivity, enhance competitiveness and support durable growth. An important lesson from the European semester process is that for meaningful policy guidance exchange of best practice and peer review it is essential that the policy making process at EU level remains open and inclusive. This chimes with our approach at national level with the reforms to the budgetary process that are now underway. We shouldn't be afraid of information and we shouldn't be made to be afraid to make difficult choices off the back of that information but political choices on investment and public services must be balanced with the need to reduce public debt and to ensure sustainability and that is key. We must ensure that there is sufficient agreement on the need and importance of reducing our public debt position and closing the deficit quickly. And as we plan ahead that we share a recognition of the need for balanced and sustainable management of the public finances together with a responsible approach to direct taxation and indirect taxes and charges. We're in such a foundation and I think if we're being honest it's not clear at the moment that we do have that foundation across the political sphere in this country but with that kind of foundation there are some great opportunities for this country and for its people. Thank you.