 The crypto market is definitely heating up and Bitcoin recently touched $30,000 but for all the great gains that we've seen so far we have to understand there is risk involved and we have to quantify that a little bit. So what I'm talking about if you haven't paid attention to your portfolio which I doubt very much, Bitcoin hit $30,000 looking pretty good. Now I'm going to start with something I usually do not start with on this channel which is just the price action it'll be relevant later when we talk about the risk. And we need to see here that Mark Capps at 1.2, Bitcoin doing great, 24 hours up 6%, 7 days 16%, Ethereum is up 5.6, BNB is up, everything's up, right? XRP is up a whopping 1.2%, watch out. And so on and so forth, Avalanche 7%, Uniswap 4.2, Bitcoin Cash, 23.6 and 31.9%. You might ask yourself why is Bitcoin Cash up? Well, there's a US based exchange that has just been opened up by Schwab and a couple of big names and investments and they have listed the big four which was not surprising to me, Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin and Ethereum. So you're going to see these ones pump probably because the other exchanges that are going to open up not only here in America but also in Hong Kong and whoever else they're going to list those and it's going to pump that price. So just be aware of what's going on. There's another one that has also caught my attention lately, it's Stax, ranked number 41. It's at almost 8% for 24 hours and 56% for the week. If you don't know Stax, you really should. There's a Layer 2 solution that gives Bitcoin smart contract functionality. It was a big thing for the Miami coin and different city coins a couple of years ago in 2021. And that's why I've actually added it to my DCA list in that last two weeks or so and doing pretty good. We'll see if it all works out. So that's what we have for the price action. What we really should do every time, honestly, is we should take a look at how is this doing against, we'll say Bitcoin. Are we bleeding against it? Should we just invest in a Bitcoin or not? Well, in all honesty, even though Ethereum has been up, BNB has been up as we can see right here, we can see that Ethereum is down against Bitcoin 2.5%, BNB is down 4%, 13% almost for the seven days. Everything's down mostly against Bitcoin except Avalanche at a whopping 0.6%, Bitcoin Cash outperformed Bitcoin, 16% and 13%. And then we can take a look at Stax, 34% for the week. So yes, there are some different coins, alts, you might call them that are doing pretty well. But that's what we have as far as bleeding against it. I know that people are sick of Ben over in the Cryptoverse talking about bleeding and Bitcoin dominance, but in all honesty he was right. So for right now, victory lap for Ben. So this is looking pretty good, but I wanted to stress and why I made this video today is to talk to you about the risk that's involved and the narratives that are there. Remember just two weeks ago, weren't we not in a free fall almost? I wouldn't say free fall, but it was not looking too good, especially when the SEC came out, they sued Coinbase, they sued Binance, they listed a bunch of different altcoins that were essentially saying that they were securities and things were just dropping like a fly. And then all of a sudden we get a Bitcoin ETF, possibly from BlackRock and Fidelity, we're going to talk about two more companies that came out. Now all of a sudden the narrative has changed. So I will just warn you that even though this has changed, there's other things that could happen, a plethora of things that could happen that could change it on a dime. Let's say that Ripple comes out and they lose the case against SEC. That wouldn't be too great. Let's say that SEC moves forward and they start to really put a lot of pressure on Coinbase by an administration that does something else that as far as like with regulation or different bills get shot down in Congress for clarity. That could also affect it. So it doesn't mean that everything's going to be just going up and to the right. We have to pay attention to the risk that is involved and what we should do about it. And also I will tell you this. There was a video I did. It was called Sell in May and Go Away. I did this on April 23rd of this year. And I talked about how if we would have sold a man gone away last year, it would have worked out great. This is an old adage from Wall Street where people sell most of their stocks coming into the summer and they buy back end of October, November, December. And then I took a look at the data from 2022 and took a look at 2023. And I said, you know, in all honesty, in 2023 of this year, it probably is not going to behoove me or I'm not going to do that. I'm not going to sell a man go away. And we took a look at different factors, one of those being the four year cycles, wherever we're actually at. I also took a look at presidential and midterm elections. We took a look at the worst months statistically from year over year. And I said that in all honesty, I was thinking about it, but when I took a look at this data, I'm not going to do it. Put that out just a couple of weeks ago. I was on, it was NFA live with Ben and Guy from Coin Bureau. I said, hey, you must be doing pretty good, Rob, because you know, we talked about that sell a man go away. And I was like, not really, because, you know, I made the video and we didn't do that. And of course, it was at that time when the SEC came out and sued everybody. So it was during that time, it would have been great. And all of a sudden we turn around and now here we are with the ETFs. So again, things can change pretty quickly. And now we'll take a look at some of the things of some positivity that could actually happen. Now me personally, I do not think this ETF will be approved. I talked about this yesterday, and I said it doesn't matter if it's approved or not, BlackRock, the biggest investment firm out there with 10 trillion assets that are management and fidelity with 4.2 trillion. It doesn't matter if it gets approved or not, the genie's out of the bottle, everybody knows that crypto angel asset is going to be here to stay. Heck, even Jerome Powell in his hearing with Congress said that, and this was to Senator Warren, our Congressman Warren, he said, look, this, as far as crypto is here to stay, and it is a viable asset class. So I mean, I don't know what else you can do. So for me, when I take a look at the ETF, I think to myself, maybe it won't get approved, but maybe I'm wrong. This is from Barons, hope for a Bitcoin ETF gain steam, two reasons it could get approved. First of all, there's some more good news today. As late yesterday, fund companies Invesco and Wisdomtree refiled applications with the SEC to launch ETFs that hold actual Bitcoin. So we got two more companies coming into the fray, Wisdomtree, Invesco, and that is on top of BlackRock and Fidelity. And they've refilled applications with the SEC to launch ETFs, spot ETFs that hold actual Bitcoin, unlike the Bitcoin futures products already on the market. I got this question yesterday. I said, Rob, does this really make sense? Because if we have another ETF, it's just paper ETF. That's incorrect. For a spot ETF, they have to, the actual investment company has to buy Bitcoin, hold Bitcoin. That's why BlackRock paired up with Coinbase, because they're going to be their custody part. I don't know which one Fidelity is going to do. I don't know which one these might do if they get approved, but they actually have to buy physical Bitcoin with a futures ETF. It's just paper Bitcoin. It doesn't really make a difference. So the two reasons why this could get approved. First one, there's a hope is a wrinkle in BlackRock's app. BlackRock says it will share surveillance of a trading platform with NASDAQ in an attempt to satisfy the SEC's earlier concerns. And this was the reason for when Greyscale came about and they got shut down. It's because Gary Gensler on the SEC said, this market is highly manipulated. We can't surveil it. We're going to shoot it down because it's super manipulated. Greyscale said, it doesn't matter. You did it with the futures ETF. It's the same thing. Let us have it. No, no, yes, no. So BlackRock said is this, okay, we're going to learn from those mistakes. We're going to allow you to, everything's going to be open in the books and you can do whatever civilians you want to. So we can prove to you that there's no manipulation. It's not something I thought about. So maybe this could get actually approved. Personally, I've went since 2017. I don't see it happening, but I could be wrong. Sound off in the comment section. Second reason for optimism is the US Court of Appeals, the District of Columbia, between SEC and Greyscale Investments. It looks like they are somewhat winning this case. So if they come out outright win the case, Greyscale, well, then everybody gets approved. ETFs go off without a hitch. So there is those two things. But the last thing I will say about this is people were asking me, but Rob, if Greyscale comes out, couldn't they just buy up all the Bitcoin? Yes. Yes. Greyscale, excuse me, BlackRock could buy all the Bitcoin that's out there because they have 10 trillion assets that imagine they really wanted to. The total market cap of Bitcoin is around $563 billion. So could they buy it? Sure. Would they buy it? Probably not. That's pretty risky to put a large amount in there. And then remember this, I own Bitcoin, you own Bitcoin, hopefully. And there's a lot of companies and ETFs and countries and everybody else in the middle that owns Bitcoin. There's a website called Buy Bitcoin Worldwide Treasuries. I'll link the description. And we can see that the percent of 21 million, it's about 8%. And that's between ETFs in other countries, obviously not in America. Countries, public companies, and private companies. And when you see that MicroStrategy, they got a whopping 140,000 Bitcoin and so on and so forth. And then you got countries, China, Ukraine, El Salvador, private companies on Bitcoin, Mt. Gox quite a bit. And there's another narrative that could actually happen. Mt. Gox and finally start giving away those Bitcoins and selling them. Some will, some won't. So another narrative to watch out for. Thanks for turning it down. And ETFs on Bitcoin, Greyscale Bitcoin trusted a whopping 3%. So don't worry, BlackRock can't buy it all, but they can buy a lot. Now leave me to my last point, risk. So everything we just talked about, this is a great website. Ben's website on the cryptoverse, a ton of different data that you can take a look at. And one thing that I always look at is the Bitcoin time spent in risk bands. I know people get all bent out of shape about this when I show this because like, hey, hey, hey, I pay for that. Don't show everybody for free. Calm down. It's only one data point. And one day, trust me when I say this, when you want to actually sell your Bitcoin or maybe take a look and make your investment strategy, you're going to need all this data anyhow. So I actually molded this around what I'm going to do as far as selling my crypto. 80% is a link in the description at the very top. And you can check that out. And one of those and a bunch of those is a day that I find here. So what this is, as far as risk, just know you've got different things on a continuum. So you have here, this is the days that are spent as far as Bitcoin goes in the wristband of 0.001. This is very rare. This is when it gets super low in cost or super low in price. It's almost like a fire sale. And I know that doesn't happen too often in the whole history of Bitcoin. It's happened 134 days. Then here you've got 0.1 to 0.2, 723 days and so on and so forth with the 0.3 to 0.4 being the longest time spent in this wristband at 1,143 days. Now, if we go all the way the right, there is this magical time and it was only 18 days when you are above 0.9 to 1, which it is super overheated and super risky. What that looks like if we graph it out above 0.9, it's been pretty accurate. So we can just see here going back in 2011. Wow, look at that. You've got it's above 0.9. Price was $20. Then of course, we have it over here and nailed it in 2013 twice. They're double top. It nailed it to the point in December 17th at 19.5 almost 19.8. So pretty darn good. And then it almost hit the very top over here in 2021, 0.92 with the Bitcoin price of $57,000. Now, it didn't hit the $67,000 or whatever else it went up to, but I think it'll be okay if you don't hit the absolute top because that's very tough to do. And I will take that for my strategy of when to sell. And then if you want to really break it down even easier, there's another little data point I always recommend, the MBRVZ score. This is on looking at Bitcoin, link in the description. It's really high quality charts and all free. MBRVZ score is a Bitcoin chart uses blockchain analysis. MBRV is the market value. And the realized value is the original line. And then of course, they divide that and they give you a Z score, which is a standard deviation that pulls out the extremes. And all you got to know is this. And you look at this, you just say, okay, when is this, this Z score? When is it going to the overheated territory? Well, happened over here in 2021. Again, a little bit off, but not too bad. Happened here in 2017, happened here again, 2013, and so on and so forth. Now, it's not as accurate because now it's saying February 19th, 2021, which Bitcoin didn't hit its top until the next, the big one in April. But it makes it super simple to go, okay, red overheated, maybe I should think about selling. And then green down here is like, wow, this is an oversold territory. Maybe it's a good idea to take a look. And maybe we want to buy that. So you can see these points, makes it quite simple, but not perfect. So what I want to do is take a look at Ben's. And this is how I'd take a break it down into three ways. One, the way that I look at it. Two, the way that Dillionaire, Michael Saylor and Michael Shadja looks at it. And three, the way your genius friends look at it. So let's go over this. So the first thing, when I see this, I just go, okay, look, I'm more of a, of a DCA guy, right? So when I see that the time and risk band, and we're talking about 0.001, if I'm here, and I'm thinking to myself, this is the best time to buy, there's only 134 those days, this is a fire sale to me. So I'm going to buy, I'm not telling you what to do. I am not your dad. This is not financial advice. This is what I do. I buy down here, because over time, I'm probably going to be rewarded. Maybe it goes a zero. Who knows. Then zero points over two, I'm still buying. Not as like exuberant as I may be over here, but I'm doing pretty good. Then over here, 0.2, still buying. And then of course, this is the bulk ranges, the boring range. I'm like, all right, I'll buy it. But I'll do it right here. I'll do a 0.4 to 0.5, 0.5 to 0.6. But then when I get down to 0.6 to 0.7, I start to think about, well, if I've laddered in, maybe I should ladder out. Maybe I sell maybe, I don't know, 2%, 5%, whatever I'm thinking for, whatever I need. And then when it comes down here and gets the oversold territory, I don't think if I'm in this 18-day window, I'm going to start selling. Again, link in the description of when I'm looking to sell my crypto. I will never sell all of it, and I will continue to accumulate over my entire lifespan, unless something crazy happens. So that is it in a nutshell. And you can also do dynamic DCing, which is where you're going to say, look, this 1,1004 days, this is my baseline. Maybe let's make it simple. Once a week, I want to spend 100 bucks. And then when it goes down here, because the price has decreased, and I'm going to 0.2 to 0.3, maybe I add on 10%. I buy $110. Then I come down here to 0.1 to 0.2. Maybe I start to buy $150 a week. And down here, maybe I buy $200 a week, because it's just such a fire sale. Maybe I do that, maybe I don't. Same thing over here, ladder out. That's how I look at it. Now, let's take a look at how MicroStrategy and Michael Saylor does it. Buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, and then buy some more, almost like a Justin Timberlake song. So essentially, Michael Saylor is never selling. That's what he says. And it behooves him. He's a billionaire. This actually pumps up his company as well, because you're essentially buying, if you're buying MicroStrategy stock, you're really buying Bitcoin. I don't know if you're really into the whole data sets and everything that MicroStrategy does. Maybe you're into it more of Bitcoins, the more they hold, the better off they are. That's for Michael Saylor. I'm not a billionaire yet. So lastly, these are your friends. And get ready for 2024, 2025, when the next bull market comes. This is how they think this is how I believe we do not. And I will just tell you this to make this crystal clear. All the information that we have right now, you're watching this video, we are light years ahead of just the normies of the people that are out there that don't really get into crypto or really get into investments. And they hear things about inflation and quantitative easing, but they don't really kind of put it together. This information that we have, all these ETFs, all these countries buying up Bitcoin, also these banks like Deutsche Bank getting into the custody game, it's like we almost have like, I wouldn't say insider information, it's just that we pay attention to it. So when your friends are going to hit you up at some point, they're going to be like, hey, what happened to that Bitcoin that you were talking about so much, it just all of a sudden went up. What happened? Here's how they think. It's surprising to me. And these bands are like, you're a loser for buying down here. This is a joke. This is dead. There's no way I'm going to do it. No, no, no way. At 0.5, when it starts to heat up, that's a hard no. And then amazingly, it comes over here as far as buying, maybe not. Then 125 days, it's a maybe. And then of course, when it starts to get heated, they're like, maybe I should buy. And during this whole time, they're like, yeah, I'm super going to buy right now. And that's just the mind of the basic average individual. I don't think you're like that. And that is it. So if you liked today's video, that is it for today. So thanks so much for stopping by. Give it a thumbs up, consider subscribing. Everything we talk about is time sensitive. I don't care who you subscribe to, just find some way that you can get the news from. So you can be up to date. This is not a set it and forget it type of market. But that's it for today. Thanks so much for stopping by. I appreciate it. And I'll see you on the next one.