 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The Tiger Technician Hour with your host, Basil Chapman. Call now. Call free at 1-877-927-6648. Hi, everyone. Basil Chapman, Tiger Technicians Hour, and it's my pleasure to be here at 10-11 Eastern Time, week on Market Days. The dollar is up 532.34680. This is important because how it breaks this nine-period exponential moving average, if it can do that on a closing basis, is going to be really important. And one of the things we're looking at here is there's been this rotation, even today we're looking at a rotation, and some of it is so unusual, and we're looking at the Dow 517, the S&P, so that's up 1.52% IND. The S&P is up 1.6% up 69 at 44.19. Do you know that last night the S&P was down 60 points in the futures, and now here it is up 67 points? Actually more than 60 points. This is very important because what it's saying is that think of it as a sieve where you throw in all the little whatever it is and you shake it up and only the little tiny pieces fall out. This is what we're looking at. We're looking at, and this is what I'll be discussing on Saturday in my overview for my subscribers when I do the overview video. What's working? What's not working? Why do we have to look forward to over the next coming month? And I don't think it's recession because I think we've had a recession. If you look at the QQQ, there's been a recession since the high that was made back in November. The 22nd was the high at 408.71 in the NDX100 trading vehicle, the Invesco QQQ Trust series, and we made a low of 334. That's over a 10% correction in a very important sector. That has the tax, that has all the innovative area in the market, and even now it's up 6.50, but it's kind of lagging. And we'll see, do we spend the next couple of weeks seeing the QQQs start to build some support, start to build some kind of, not, I wouldn't call it predominance because the Dow is actually leading right now, but some kind of catch up of the leadership role and see a trading in the 360 to 365 area that's going to be really important because this to me is a recession in a particular area. If you're looking at CTAS, which is CENTAS, this is the overalls and uniforms, CENTAS coming up, I'm still a little slow on this computer. Hello, anybody home? Come on. It's just fascinating. I was frozen earlier on and in trying to get out of different screens, I hit one, I actually hit a trade. I didn't even mean to. The next thing I look, I've got the trade. I quickly said get out and then I had to close it down so that I could make space here. And we're looking at the CENTAS. That's a mini recession going from the high of December the 13th and 461 down to 371. So in the traditional sense of a recession, absolutely not. But in a rotational sense, a particular sector is really weak. Overalls, uniforms, rentals, CENTAS core CTAS trading up 5 and 386. Wow. 461 down to 371, almost 100 points, 20% or so. That's a big deal. So I think that we'll be looking at now is a very selective rally in certain sectors that are going to say, what recession? I mean, proctoring gamma, let's see what that's doing today. Yeah, holding up the other all-time highs at 160, hit 165 all-time high just a couple of weeks ago. In fact, just a couple of days ago. Yeah, this is a rotational thing in the den. Someone said K-H-C. What are K-H-C? K-H-C? What is K-H-C? Oh, Kraft Heinz. Yeah, there you are. Up, up, doing very nicely, not near highs, because this, I mean, Kraft Heinz had a whopper of a decline going from the 100 level back in 2018 down to 20, about March 23rd of 2020. So yeah, it's still doing quite nicely. So this is very selective. Look at the IYT. The IYT is the transportation index. Yes, I would say there's been some kind of big digestive phase from 287 may high down to the 240 area, and then back up to 281, then back down to 250. This is a rotational, and that's really what I want to be talking about. Now let's go back to our story. We wanted to look at the IWM, the Russell 2000, and that is a horrible candle. This is still a very selective move. 198, 62, up to 62. It has to be in the 205 area, 202 to 205, by this time next week. Otherwise, it's a real problem. So that's really important. Look at, yeah, in the den, look at the CRM. This is salesforce.com. Almost had it as a buy this morning. I can say we chose something else, because it's in a sector that I think is going to become quite hot in 2022. We'll see what happens. This is a 220, 166, up 10, up 5%. That's good. That's a start. And that says that we might see a corrective process going on where base building for the four areas that were absolutely fantastic. I mean, let's face it, from the 2020 low at about 119 in salesforce.com going to an all-time, did I type the number in? I think I did, yes. 311.76 on the 9th of November with a 310 round number low that day. And slumps to 208. I mean, let's face it. This is, needs a lot of work and a lot of stocks. I'm going to put a question in the den about Disney. Disney, I've got my eye on why? Because when we come out of this COVID situation, there's no question. People are just going to say, I have to get out. I want to go to all the Disney, all the different Disney entertainment theme parks. We'll see what happens there. More important will be, because it's a media company as well. I can't do it right now. I haven't had this in ages, slowing down. Hopefully by tomorrow when I do the show, I'm going to be able to have refreshed everything. I think it might be my computer. Earlier this morning I was going to close everything down, start freshers, which I used to do every couple of days. On this particular computer, I didn't do it. So I've got Disney trading at 137. It's coming off a low that was made just under 130. We're going to be following this. What I really wanted to type in was 6, which is, there it is. Thank you. Six is Six Flags Entertainment. That is more, I think, more the outdoor entertainment type thing. And that's coming off a low. It made a high recently of 45. It comes down to the 36ers, turning the 39.22. They're just stuck in the range. I thought this would give us a better clue, but it's not. So a question, could I do a comment on GLD? GLD made a peak E-top in the daily charts. We've got a break coming up. I want to address this. We want to know what's going on with gold. But it isn't a cell mode with a gate. You have to spy the gold trust. Because it's not against the price of the spot gold. I'm back in a moment because of the price of the E-60. Are you looking for a way to consistently add winning trades to your portfolio? 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For free, each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from the world. From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds, Tiger TV has 8 different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money. Watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be. TFNN, educating investors. Yeah, so this is what we've got. We've got GLD down at $1.29 and $1.68.49. Just right sitting on the 200-period exponential moving average. But look, this is very important. And one of the reasons why I was so suspicious of the breakout in gold when you didn't have the GDX, that is the gold miners, following. I like to see them in sync. I actually like to see the GDX rally first and then gold follows. That to me is usually a little bit more sustainable. There's no real hard fixed rule that I have. Tom O'Brien is the gold expert. I could probably discuss it in those terms, but I'm just looking at what I look historically just to my memory. And that just says, I prefer to see the gold mining stocks rally strongly. And then I don't care really what happens with gold. It usually follows, and then silver will follow, and silver might lead. I'm always thinking, what's that game where you hold hands and you've got a long line, nobody does that anymore. And then you run and then one person, the person on one end stops and then the whole thing, just whatever it's called, and then everybody falls down. And that's kind of what we see here. Then with silver finally has its say, then the whole sector of those precious metals sears down. So the GDX is really the clue that I'm using right now. And the GDX rather than gold, the question was on gold, only went to a peak C above the 200 p.m. moving average then fell. But if you look at the weekly chart, that's telling you what I do all the time. That I'll be discussing on Saturday in my overview. The kind of chart pattern that says, this should be a successful H pattern that then breaks out in a cup formation and rally sharply above the left side arch. And that would say that the GDX should have run above the 34.08 area. And it didn't. In fact, it broke down in the 33s. And now we're at 30.19. And that just says, not yet. And one of the reasons is, let me just do silver. So what I'm saying is that the GLD obviously is falling gold, but I see a little bit more to the downside. And silver wasn't really following. Now the chart pattern is actually looking a little bit similar. What happens when silver finally catches up is chart looks a little bit better just for a moment and then kind of fails. And that's what we're looking at because silver is down 97 cents and we're at 22.83. What's really important about this is that you've got the dollar, the dollar breaking out sharply like this. And I don't know if it's going to hold this leg, but it's really important that it did break out for the first time above the resistance. And now I can do it. And I'm going to show you when I sub for Tommy Jr. and he showed the kickoff, market kickoff program earlier on because there was such an incredible flurry of buying and short covering and all sorts of things, my system held back. So the 97.80 high that I had drawn, at least for the first cup formation, bowl really formation in the dollar, we broke above that. And in fact today we went to 97. 97.27, we haven't gone above it. So yeah, we have 97.80 was what we were looking for. We went to 97.27. So that's really important. And then if this starts to be a close in the 98.30s or 98.50s, let's say, on a weekly basis, you're looking at 102.99, that major high of around about April of 2020. And remember, we went along to 2018, way back and we're still long. We held this UUP position. That's the UUP is called. That's the dollar bull, I think. Yep, DB, US dollar bull. We've had it forever and since 2018 and the stop held when it went all the way, we saw it go all the way to the high and that was, the monthly chart was a major high and then so it'd come all the way back but the stop held and we've just kept it and I've kept it because I'm keeping it not as a technical thing, not to do with gold, not to do with the Euro, but to do with as an icon to the American economy as one of the best and that's where countries around the world want to put their money into the dollar. That's just as simple as that. I don't want to explain to you, now maybe technical fighting tomorrow, I will. So, yes it is. This is, we've got that same pattern that says, rising against the falling gold but to me that is subsidiary to the reason why I initially got it and why I still want to keep it for subscribers to my opening call and I had a question recently saying, why do you still have the dollar, who's trading the dollar? Well, people, subscribers from all around the world and they already do watch the dollar very closely either for business reasons or whatever. So that was another question about crude oil, CL, I'm suspecting and I'll say this for a little while that that left side high of October of 2018, 85, 65, that this is the area that's really critical that in the 86s we might start to see a lot of resistance and that resistance will suggest that crude oil, there could be an abatement of the tension between Russia and the oil situation, Russia and maybe the rest of the world and that might see just a pullback but looking out this monthly chart is saying crude oil, well let's put it together with the XLE XLE Leg C in the daily chart which says to me I should have probably this is the area that we should have been in and holding rather than using as trading in different vehicles Leg C in the daily, Leg C in the weekly, Leg E in the monthly, above the travel wave falling ax resistance level this is really strong in the system it says to me energy cannot be dismissed and ever since we stopped the pipelines you've just seen this exponential rally in the whole area of energy especially crude oil I think this is going to be 2020, 2021's theme it was and I think it's going to be 2022's theme as well and that I'll talk about in my upcoming video for subscribers on Saturday my overview it's where I do a big summation of where we are we've raised a lot of cash we're in a good position we've got our positions, the long positions that we've held they are acting very finally they're acting very nicely today the new one that we got just by the skin of our teeth pre-opening that's acting quite well I had a question about natural gas natural, oh don't type it there natural gas this is a continuous contract of natural gas trading up 14 ticks at 4.05 you know the big issue for me was that this spiral in Leg B fails so miserably going from round about the 3.40 area to the 4.00 I forgot to type that in because it's a continuous contract I usually don't like to type in because when you come back a month later it's been smoothed out and the price changes not the patterns 4.0692 this is called 4.069 we're at 4.05 right on the 200 period moving average you know there's been a discrepancy something's going on and we have seen that periodically the crude oil moves and natural gas doesn't move even though it's in the energy sector so I would I'm not going to say quickly let's just wait a bit I'll go to UNG in a moment and then we'll talk about it I'll be back, bezel chap, that was a 4.89 4.69 is up 57 you having fun trading the markets but having trouble finding like-minded individuals to discuss your trading and join the Tiger's Den trading room only at TFNN.com the Tiger's Den is an exclusive trading room where successful traders from around the world come to exchange trades and ideas join the den and surround yourself with the sharpest minds in the trading world subscribers to the Tiger's Den are also the first to have their questions answered live on air and can privately chat with our TFNN host live during their shows 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of the art of timing the trade charts today by visiting TFNN.com So just for UNG which is the United States National Gas Fund trading at $14.23 right on the $200 period of exponential moving average of gain normally doesn't hang out here for more than a day or two before it makes a big move up or down I suspect that by Tuesday that's coming Tuesday the first of February if you see crude oil finally having a bit of a dip and it'll be a more just a technical just over overbought condition because I think that as long as you've got Russia making waving different signs to say huh we're in the driver's seat right now when it comes to crude oil I don't think there'll be more than a temporary pullback and then we start heading higher so that could be so I would say that if by Tuesday if by Monday at my time doing my show 10 o'clock to 11 o'clock UNG crude oil is pulling back even just a little bit but you've actually seen a sign that natural gas is moving into the 1495 1515 area that'll say great now he has the move that should I'm just saying it will but I'm saying it should take it to a leg D above the high of 16 in this case 1619 made in the 12th of January but I can just tell you this be careful because if the natural gas breaks under 1350 closes under 1535 it's just stuck for a little while longer but I do see it having the potential for a nice spike to the upside but I think you might have to wait for at least flattening or a pullback in the crude oil now a couple of questions have come in let me say and also in the den couple of questions earlier and I said I'd get to them I thought I wrote them down but I must have been really busy because I was I was getting my my system was one of the few times in years that it got stuck it got stuck again just a few minutes ago so that's there what I want you to look at here is in let me just show you something hopefully I can get to there this is the 10 minute chart of the Yes E-mini from the low at 23 that's 11 o'clock last night that was made in the 42 so did I say yeah 42 there it is at 2250 that's 1050 last night at 2263 when peak A peak B peak C pulls back goes back over the 9p moving average above the 14 to a leg D chat with instant restart ABCD how important are these well 1D 2Ds pulls back in time for about 40 minutes 50 minutes makes a low round around 4319 and then goes peak A peak B peak C peak no it goes to leg D right at the high today of 44 22.00 and then it makes a peak D in this candle and the candle right now says 9 is still above the 14 had a huge group pull back on balance volume at lows the 9 is crossed the 9p differential and the MACD is crossed negative but the price is still holding okay but now the dowel is down from its high to 314 S&P is at up 34 so this is what I'm saying that we had that first hour of a short squeeze I mean a short squeeze a triple short squeeze from yesterday's high where everyone thought oh my god we're going to break out and we went up 500 points in the dowel up 60 something in the almost 90 in the S&P and then reversed huge and then it's sort of stabilized and then boom there was this big sell-off again going to that low that was made was that the low yeah that was the low that was made I remember notating this last night that was at the bell 3 o'clock makes this dreaded H pattern peak D as well that was at about 2 o'clock slow down slow down that was at right there right there if I can get the time right okay there we are we're at 1430 so about 230 yesterday we make a high to peak D 44 22 ish plummet down to the 42 or was that about 90s rallies up goes to only a peak C minus fails makes a dreaded H pattern then goes to that low that was made at what did I say 2230 there's 1030 eastern time and then we saw the rally that's been a spectacular rally now you see this is the issue there is so much there is so much opportunity for news to come in bad, good, bad, good, bad all the time that we're looking I haven't been able to change the stance that we've had of being short the Dow we have taken some profits off that DOG position but we are remaining short if I had got for four days in a row if I had got the low in the lows I would have said as a trade that's good but I think it's only a trade because until we see the QQQ the IWM start to move I'm going to talk about in my my video on Saturday for subscribers in my overview I need to talk about this because until we see a significant rally that's sustained in those massively hit index 100 type stocks this is go to what's the name ARKK I use this only as an example we don't have a position in it then it is down 46 cents ARKK ARK Innovation ETF 68, 57 down 46 this is not what you should see that's the only reason why this is one of the few times I think for those of you who know my work here for nearly 20 years it's one of the few times at a V-shaped bottom with a VIX index at the top and where we've got to buy where I haven't gone long even if we were short switched to long or even just said let's go long the time is I just I am not in a position technically to say that all the all everything's lined up correctly it is just not yet lined up properly I might miss out but we still have a call on position from the April lows of 2020 but we're talking about trading positions so the day is young now the real day so you remember yesterday I said I even put it in the den that from 240 on Wednesday Eastern Time in the afternoon that's when the real market will show up we didn't show up we still would happen and I have to feel the same way now from now on now if we have a big rally and we go up 550 points or more in the day I say you know what now I think we're finding substantial enough to have a rally into next week or maybe even a little bit more but I still want to see the IWM the Russell 2000 rally and it's not now it's down 60 cents I would say that's not good action so when the question came up about recession I think we're seeing recession but it's selective recession and it's not the full markets where you say oh now we're in a recession that's different we're seeing sort of sectors that are under tremendous pressure and other sectors that are not so I need to go back to something that was a question that then came in where was it fixed has been steady in my opinion has not had a serious spike as of yet that's Peter so Peter you asked another question earlier on and I hope I can see it oh we got time to find it it was a good question but I couldn't get through it and I thought oh there are a lot of very good questions in the Tiger YouTube and in the den so in the den there was a question earlier on what I look at and now I've forgotten what it is and I haven't looked at that I tried to find it during the bank Basel Chapman, Tiger Division's our dollars of three or forty four that's a piece of thirty seven really important couple of days are you in the market for buying surrounding St. Petersburg, Tampa and Clearwater markets Tiger Real Estate LLC is a firm that has extensive experience in the Tampa Bay area whether you're looking to sell your current property for maximum value or you're in the market for a second home or investment property Tiger Realty has the experience across all areas of real estate in the Tampa Bay area to help buyers and sellers make the most informed decisions across all price levels from the price you should be paying to the type of cash flow investment properties are capable of creating Tiger Real Estate can help you make the best decision when it comes to all areas of the market before you make one of the biggest decisions of your financial future call Tiger Real Estate LLC today at 727-329-8322 or email us at Tiger at TFNN.com that's 727-329-8322 call us today the technology around us is changing every day with so much happening it can seem impossible to keep up with all the information David White's investment newsletter the technology insider is designed to give you all the information 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shares carefully before investing the prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares to obtain a prospectus or summary prospectus please contact direction shares at 866-476-7523 the prospectus or summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing an investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principle the funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors distributor foresight fund services LLC don't forget you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day go to TFNN.com then hit watch Tiger TV that's TFNN.com then hit watch Tiger TV so question here we go to some of the questions really nice good questions IBB so actually the person talking about it was talking about LABU but that's multi ETF percentage of the IBB the IBB is the IBB Nasdaq Biotech ETF actually I don't know if LABU is IBB or whether it's the S&P Biotech anyway let's go to as if it was the IBB made a high of 177.57 of the week of August 13, 2021 big D important of Ds and we pull back to the recent low in the 120s to be exact it was 122.03 122.94 on the 24th has a big spike within two days tries to get to the 9th pre-moving and it fails and today it looked like it was going to rally and now it's red it's down 67 cents at 125.55 that's what I mean by rotational recession or digestive formations they kind of come to the same thing right whether it's digestive you call it recession but in this area Nasdaq Biotech had a recession that's all I'm saying if you go 170 down 50 points from 177 I would say that's a serious decline more important is that the monthly chart look at that red candle it says you can have it inside bar next month but there's a chance you're going to have to do summary testing of the most recent blow so all I'm saying there is this is typical of what we're seeing right now the selectivity is so important what happens for the rest of the day as some of folks say oh well this is working let's go back to what's working I don't want to be in areas that aren't working and that's where we see so that's the one question the volatility index still holding pretty well above it's low of 28.42 today we'll keep an eye on that that is a clue the big ictus the top that was made at 38.94 in the next few days is there going to be something bad I think so much that has come out that's bad I don't see what could take it above 38.94 this particular point so what I'm thinking is that this week this week in the weekly chart in leg E we could close by tomorrow more towards the lower end towards the 27 maybe 26 if there's some kind of a balance later in the day and that would just say to me this allows you to focus on what's working all right let's get back to the story because then a question came in January 2022 please compare to January 2014 do you see the S&P recovery for the rest of the year so let me get out of that as a question see if there any other questions yep there's a question there on the dollar let me just see NVIDIA questions well yeah NVIDIA is acting terribly dollar high basal agree with someone who asked of all things to hold so long why the dollar is going to be holding very well and making these slightly higher highs and higher lows at least for a little bit but it's what it is saying is that my focus on the the dollar as the US economy that's the way I'm looking at it and so far it's acting well as long as we can have rotational corrections so I'll get to that a little bit more tomorrow what I do want to do is I'm going to do that a little bit more tomorrow what I do want to show you is let me see if I can do this right now with one of my charts with the black background my very long term charts there it goes S&P find the one that says S&P oh no yeah there it is S&P click so you're talking about the S&P 2014 that turn up it's coming it'll be there a little bit slow but it's there come on there you go so 2014 2009 low 666.7 I remember the day of the low January the 6th sorry March the 6th 2009 we went along that day of the low we managed to get quite a few of those it's important so we're talking about 14 so this is 2014 and that's February so January was a little bit shaky the S&P was at 1838 high oops 18 1850 high and 1770 low and then it just had steady higher highs and higher lows it did make a couple of peaks into 2015 then it went to a peak G May of 2015 at 2134.72 and then had a timeout for quite a while it went to the low in March of February of 2016 2018 no I have to treat this very differently you see the size of this candle and everything about it I would normally say oh my god that looks like a D or an E or an F but at least a D no it's a B it's only a B in this S&P and that doesn't tell you how high you should go for C and D we might only go normally higher for leg C and then normally higher for D and then we have an even greater turn down in 2022 I don't want to go there right now I'm thinking a certain way and my idea is that the pattern that we're looking at with this number of bars from the 2020 March low I don't go to this particular chart very often that was at 2191 we hit 2418 sorry 4818 yeah 4818 that is just a massive move to the upside so I think we're going to use more time some more price to the downside but you know there are other ways tomorrow I'll do a little bit more detail as to say what would be key support but in the meantime certainly the support of the monthly candle that was made just the other day of 4222 that's 160 points from the outside 1600 points in the down to the downside 2000 points I would say that's really what I'm looking at that's going to be key support how much further we go to the upside here is going to be important there's just no question in my mind that I would put it at over 88 to 92% for the chances of making a new high in February it just seems to me are really very strong but the way we are trying to build support the way we've rotated are you telling me let's go back to CRM because this is really a fantastic company they were the leaders going into cloud they just did everything are you telling me they're cloud CRM salesforce.com won't have another fabulous big rally I I don't see why not they're in the business of business they're in the business that almost every major company needs to use that type of resource that they have what it seems to me we're just waiting on now we're waiting 201.51 was the low back in 20 last year was that 20 2020 that was March of 2021 that's what I was thinking and it's gone to a peak D and this is serious this is the third month of a red candle so I am thinking that looking out one has to start building cash positions to be able to buy absolutely fabulous companies this is just an example there could be many others CRMWD the cyber area down from 200 250 is catching up great companies they just out of faith coming back sharpening your skills as an 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my show it'll give me a lot of time to be able to look at things and I'll explain what I'm going to be doing my overview for subscribers on Saturday this is going to be different to my usual ones I'm going to be looking at sectors that could be working why they should work where they should go and chart patterns because look when you make a severe AV share sorry a plunger as you have in the dreaded age pattern I had a question believe me I've spent not hours, not days but weeks and months on this to see if there could be an alternate count could this be a peak D and therefore all the indices are at a point where we could get a much deeper correction no it keeps coming back to a B because the 2346.38 of December of 2018 and S&P had to pick up the previous notation to go to a G at 3393.52 February of 2020 and then we plunged 35% to 2191.86 this is a brand new move no matter how I pick it out so I'm looking at that and I'm just saying it's going to be a selective move here let's see what happens for the rest of the day they should be buying attempts will they hold will you finally get the cues to rally that's really important watch the volatility index if the volatility index is starting to fall to 29.86 if it goes back into the 28th or lower by say after 233 o'clock eastern times afternoon and the Dow is actually up about 450 and the S&P is up say 62 or more I think you can have a decent close and that'll just say hey this rotation is starting to find some selectivity for sustainability rather than just rally failure failure rally failure just alternating so that's what to keep in mind in the meantime back at the ranch let me also tell you that in the context of journals this third day the fourth day after a significant lower 30,150 in the Dow it's really important that you go straight towards the 28th of 35,000 and 37 in a short period of time that would be a good sign have fun today thank you for that great programming coming up