 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, happy weekend everybody. Welcome to another edition of theaxesandtrader.com. Weekend update show, hope everybody is doing well. If you are brand new to the channel, guys, thank you very much for tuning in, spending a couple of minutes of your weekend, whether this broadcast is going to go out on Saturday or Sunday. I don't know, it's roughly around quarter to three Saturday afternoon, but hopefully you guys will see it prior to Sunday evening. All we ask is if you like the content, if you like the unbiased nature of technical analysis, take a second, click the like button, share, subscribe. We would love to continue to provide this daily journey of never ending market education. So hopefully everybody is doing well. So this is where we are, right? Market closes this week. Again, all time highs on all the three major benchmarks, Qs, Nasdaq, Spies, and the Dow Jones industrial average, all finished in the green, about a little bit less than 1% on each. But here is kind of where we start the week with taking off the rose-colored glasses. Number one, the big winners this week, tech earnings kicked off this week. You had Netflix and IBM, the two really, really big winners for the week on the tech earnings. Not everything was so rosy. You had Texas Instruments, you had Intel, and you had Tesla, really, really disappointing in their price action of their earnings delivery. This week is another huge, huge week of earnings, especially Tuesday, Tuesday and Thursday. Tuesday you have AMD, we have Microsoft, we have Google, it also is in there, Google and Starbucks, right? I used to be addicted to Starbucks, not so much anymore. And Thursday we have our second half. We have Amazon, we have Apple, and we have Meta. So we are at a very exciting area of the quarter, which is earning season. And the question going into this week is, can the bulls keep it going, right? The bulls have been on a stellar run ever since 2023, ended its first two weeks. And now it's spilling over very, very aggressively into 2024. And the question is, are the next series of earnings announcements going to be baked in? They weren't baked in, they weren't baked in with Netflix. They sure were not baked in with IBM. And the key is, can the fund managers who've completely missed the boat, or a lot of them missed the boat in 2023, can they continue to push these stocks into the next level of exaggeration? Because again, like I said on Thursday night's video, what was the last time you saw IBM have a $20 movement to earnings? Again, it really does demonstrate that a lot of fund managers are playing catch-up, right? Really, really playing catch-up to a lot of the stock performances from 2023. The question now is, what is under the hood for the technical side of it? That's where we start getting focused. So here is the NASDAQ 100, or we're going to use the QQQs as a proxy. If you've noticed here, if you've noticed, every single time we've hit this orange line, we've bounced, right? The problem on Friday, and a lot of people did not pick up on this just because there's a lot of euphoria still moving around, there's two takeaways, okay, two takeaways going into Monday's session. And this is where we start acting like adults. Number one, the QQQs have put in three straight days of lower highs and lower lows. And going into Monday's session, this is the first time that we've closed below, right? Below the five-day moving average since, let's see here, since January the 16th, and you saw what happened the next day, the next day we went lower. The key for the bulls is get back above the five-day. You guys remember on Thursday's video, I said the line in the sand was going to be this 424, right? Well, we closed below the 424. So if the bears can finally get a little attraction, finally get a little bit off the pavement and come out fighting, they need to confirm back down this 423 level, which is roughly Friday's lows. If the bears can start building below and create a new ceiling at 423, then we could get an aggressive back test to the five-day moving average of 418. So this is a very, very big level. I don't think a lot of people have really picked up on how important the closing below the five-day moving average is. Look, is it possible we gap back above the five-day moving average on Monday and start rallying back? Absolutely. We've given you guys a really pretty big heads up here because if they do confirm Friday's channel, we will start filling this little gap and we do have a measure potential soft landing somewhere around 418. On the spy side, right? On the spy side, not quite there yet like the QQQs, but this is the area you have to watch going into this week. You see this 484-80s level, right? It held 484 three times basically on this rising five-day support. If it starts losing this 484-80s level, then it's going to start back testing just like potentially the QQQs as well. If you look at the IWM, IWM has had a nice run-up of the 50-day moving average. It's kind of like sitting in a distribution channel. Nothing really imminent on the IWM. It's still a ways from the 10-day and still a ways from the top of the range for that 198-50s high it made last week. The ranges on the IWM going into this week is 198-60 to the upside and to the downside 194. As long as it stays in the middle of the ranges, there's nothing imminent that you have to worry about, especially if you are long components of the IWM. This week, so again, be very aware of that five-day. We've been watching that five-day for the last two, three days. Like I said, three consecutive days of lower highs, lower lows. Despite what you're seeing with still aggressive moves in NVIDIA and AMD and all these meds of the world, again, it doesn't take a lot for the market to pull. The market usually does get an aggressive pull when the market starts going a little bit parabolic, a little bit euphoric. If you go back to 2023 and just look at just random spots on the charts, you can just see it here. This is 2023 and you'll see here, look how aggressive this random pull is. When stocks start going linear, this is where you have to be very, very careful of a random pull, same thing here. It's not out of the ordinary that you can just get whipsawed very, very quickly if you don't see the signs. Again, I'm seeing the sign pretty clear here. If we lose and confirm back the five-day moving average, there will be a potential rug pull. Some names that continue to do very, very well. Amazon, we talked about for a number of days, finally gave us a pretty good move on Friday. Matter of fact, as you guys remember on Thursday's video, I said, hey, the stock has been rejected back to back days at the same price. Look at this. On January the 24th, it got rejected 5851 and the next day it got rejected 5851. So we knew if it was going to get above 5851, it's finally going to start going and did. It had to give us a really, really good trade on Friday. 15850 started building and it went all the way almost to 161. If you could start building back above 161, you could start the next leg up. Again, Amazon reports on Thursday. Meta has been on a rockstar journey, also reports on Thursday. Watch this 385 level below the five-day just in case they pull. Other than that, it's pretty much going sideways. Microsoft has a beautiful linear run. Google is reporting again this week, completely beautiful runs. The two stocks that I want to give you guys a heads up on is NVIDIA. NVIDIA number one is mirroring the cues. Now, why is NVIDIA important? Well, because number one, it's had a run up from roughly 475 to what? 630 in the last three weeks. Guys, just like we're watching the cues, watch the five-day on NVIDIA. Even though it's been a hell of a rockstar, a hell of a performer, but remember, gravity is real. If you can see here again, three straight days of lower highs. If it loses the five-day moving average, it could get pulled. Definitely keep an eye on that. AMD had a little bit of news after hours. Elon Musk said, I believe he said Tesla's going to start buying some AMD AI chips. Stock, not a huge reaction after the close on Friday, but it was up about 60 cents, 70 cents. Not a huge huge reaction because the stock already had a major run. Just like NVIDIA, watch the five-day. If AMD starts losing the five-day, it's going to get hit as well. So, NVIDIA and AMD, definitely the two names I am watching on Monday for a potential pull if they start losing the five-day to the upside. ARDX, a smaller name. Guys, look how beautiful this flag is. This is a gorgeous flag on this ARDX. Keep an eye on this thing for a potential upside confirmation. Disney is starting to look really, really nice. The mouse house, again, very, very close to confirming November highs. This looks beautiful, right? Airbnb looks really, really strong. This is the highest close in this whole formation here. If they can just get back above the September highs, Airbnb can start stretching, really start stretching up. And last but not least is Tesla, right? So, Tesla, if you've been following this broadcast, lost the 50-day moving average right away. We said, hey, it was sell buys, right? Sell buys. Lost the 200-day moving average. Ripped out the buy button. Came out with earnings, again, pretty much disappointed on every metric, including margins. And Thursday, the stock was down 12.5%. Got killed, and I said on Thursday's video, is it possible we have a debt cap bounce day? Guys, the stock was up 60 cents on the day, right? 60 cents on the day after being down $12.5 or 12% or so. Again, the longer it goes sideways, and this is a big, big misconception of stocks that blow up on earnings. When a stock goes sideways after an earnings blow up, it's not because it's resting to go higher. It's resting to go lower. It could have one or two more days of sideways action, but if it starts losing the earnings lows of what we saw on Thursday, there is going to be the next leg down on Tesla. Again, my job as a trader is to short every rally into supply. And if you look at the 60-minute view, right? If you look at the 60-minute view, it's been rejected literally at supply. Look how many times it's been rejected. The top of the range of supply actually starts over here. It starts over here once, twice, three times, four times, five times, right? So every single rally is being stuffed at supply, and that's the goal. Any strength, I want to be shorting this into supply. And obviously, when the natural pivot, if it does come and starts losing the earnings lows, I definitely want to be a seller of the stock for the next leg down. So that's it. If you are brand new to the channel and you are curious about pivots, because that's what we trade. We trade pivots, the PS60 theory. Nobody trades in this matter on the entire planet, for the exception of us and three of my buddies. If you are interested in pivots, kick the tires for 30 days. It's either going to be for you or it's not going to be for you, at least you'll be exposed to the majority of what most people are not. Guys, have an awesome, amazing weekend. Take care of yourself. Take care of your families. Take a step. Take a step. Breathe in the beautiful fresh air that we have. Learn to love life and just smile. Just smile and be kind to others, and life becomes a little bit sweeter. Guys, God bless. Have a great, great weekend. I will see you all on Monday. Take care.