 Okay Colin, I'm back in black. Are you still there? Hi Jasper, I'm still here. Okay, good, good to know. Sorry about that, I was just, I was just preparing the insights, which I'll try and do. Oh, okay, yes, we don't have a spare man for insights and Twitter updates this time, do we? Yeah, okay, let's try and multitask. Yeah, so I'm going to, I was just getting the post-organized as best I can. Well done, that man. Okay, let's skip through these. So we'll try and do that. So if we hear clicking in the background, that's what I'm doing. Clicking and furious typing. I'll try and keep it quiet, but sometimes the keystrokes pick up. Yeah, if you hear it. Anyways, I'm ready to start at any time you are. Okay. Yeah. And guys, if you hear a kind of whimpering sound, that's Colin's trade not working out. Okay, so we're going through the risk warning here, we've got our Canada risk warning on the screen here for our Canadian clients involved, and that's about it. So there we are. We've got a 13 minute countdown happening here for these, what I should say is all these numbers that really count Colin, what do you put in the most emphasis on this time around out of the figures, the headline? Yeah, I'm looking at the headline number and the average earnings I think will be really important because one of the things we're looking at here, I mean we've had a lot of Fed speakers out the last couple of weeks and they're basically saying, you know, the US is approaching full employment, which has been increasingly clear for quite a while. The inflation also is starting to pick up and one of the places that I've been noticing inflation pick up both in the US and in other countries is in wage pressures and the Fed's kind of been downplaying it, but the truth is that wage pressures are stickier inflation, like inflation driven by oil prices or commodity prices. It goes up and it goes down, but wage prices are stickier. Usually once wages go up they're like dividends, people are loathed to cut them back down. So that's what I call real inflation. So that's one of the numbers we're really keeping an eye on here. And the reason a lot of people are focused on non-firm payrolls today in particular of course is because we've got the big Fed meeting coming in a couple of weeks. Number of Fed members including some of the big ones like Fisher and Dudley and Yellen was a little more balanced but still and Mester and some of the other regional presidents have been saying that September is potentially a live meeting for a rate hike. Why? Because the Fed didn't raise rates in June. If you were looking at every six months they missed June because of Brexit even though they blamed it on a soft non-farm number. And it was really all about Brexit. And so this would be the catch up in September and then perhaps they could go again in December or in March. So the options really are Fed raises in September or Fed signals September for December is probably what we're looking at going forward. But the non-farm number will tell us which one is more likely. And so we've been running above 200,000 this summer since we rebounded from the week May number. And so what I've been considering is that if we get another non-farm number above 200,000 we'll probably see the Fed raise rates this month. If we're between 100 and 200,000 and it's 50-50 maybe they will maybe they won't. If it's below 100,000 then the Fed will probably use September to signal for December. One of the other things that's been going on lately and it's been coming from Rosengren and Dudley and a few of the others is the Fed has been talking down the threshold for non-farm payrolls needed to raise rates. So people used to think well they would need maybe 250 or 300 to actually put through an increase and they've been saying depending on the Fed member somewhere between 50 and 150 as being okay and indicating a decent steadily growing job market. And it makes a lot of sense because if you're approaching full employment you would expect as anything else that the rate of increase would slow. You would expect job was non-farm payrolls to grow to slow as you approach the it's not a physical barrier but let's just call it a psychological barrier of full employment wherever it is. Sure, you get to a point where there's no more people left to actually take the jobs when you reach 100% employment. Yeah and back to your point about wages obviously that you know it's a good market to be to be switching jobs at the moment because you know less people available for work you know employees have to bid up how much they're offering to those who are left and those are in other places of work. Absolutely and that's why we want to be looking at the average earnings as well because that's another sign that will show us we're getting close to full employment is that you see the payroll growth slow and the wage growth increase. So is 100,000, is that the sort of low bar for you on this one? Plus 100k you still think December is on the cards? Yeah I think so I think that plus 100k and I think plus 200 September is probably still in the cards because it just feels to me like the Fed is ready and wanting to do this I think they've reached a point where they're when intrigues me though about it is that the the elections coming and in a couple of months and so usually the Fed tries to stay away from election campaigns so we we can pretty much forget anything happening at the October meeting so it's either now or December really is what you're looking at but usually they stay away from it and it's interesting that they're even talking about it which I read is one of two things either the the Fed wants to show that the economy is good and certainly that would that would favor anything like that would favor the Democrats because they can say well look we've been managing the economy for eight years and it's doing great on the other hand if you hold off because the economy is poor then that favors the Republicans because then they of course have been going around saying well we need to fix America our economy is broken and and and so on and but if you do make a move then the the other part of which is well maybe the election is not so close after all it's it's hard to say but there's different ways you can read that and I think looking at this non-front payrolls report you'll probably also see some political spin try and come out of this as well this one and the next one and perhaps even the one to follow because we got today in one or two more before the election and I think they'll probably both sides will be trying to spin that depending on how the numbers fall out sure sure yeah below 100,000 expect the Donald to be tweeting a lot 200,000 Hillary's and yeah that makes sense well I guess another thing to make notes about this August number is that August is reportedly the most volatile of all the months also the most hard to predict and also the month that gets revised highest in subsequent revisions so often this number that we're about to see is a lot lower than what we eventually find out it is two three month one two months down the line so maybe that that's a reason to believe actually we do undershoot this consensus which is you know 180,000 still still pretty reasonable so I think so and it's pretty much in line with what we got from ADP on Wednesday you know any I'm just going to quickly have a little quick look at gold if I may Colin just because I think we're a bit of a I think you even tweeted didn't you that someone did that we're a pretty key juncture in gold and this is so this is my my daily chart here so this is this is kind of like a weekly swing point I suppose you can see it easier on the the weekly chart here where we're obviously making higher highs here little falter here but pretty much making higher lows but at this point we're trying to make a lower low having just made a lower high at the top here below the one three seven five peak we made this year so we're basically below this previous low and we're at this this previous peak we've had a good rebound off there this week but depending on this number it's probably going to determine whether we finish above or below that pretty much that one three hundred mark it's quite an important pivot for gold so I would say you know maybe a scenario that we're looking at here is if the the number does come in a bit weak then you know that you would assume that would be just immediate positive off this off this off this chart for gold yet and that'd be an immediate rally point if it does come in strongly well then we're looking at challenging this one three hundred then it's a matter of whether we break down through it or whether it just turns out to be another fake out and we can push higher still that will be you know the reaction this chart and and some of the major currencies will give us a good indication of where the kind of market is interpreting things for the likelihood of a rate hike any charts that you're looking at particularly Colin yes I wanted to if you could just put up the the Dower the SPX whichever one because I think you'll see treaty is going to be focused in two areas one will be gold at primarily because is the US dollar and so we'll see big moves in gold and other currencies what's going to be important also is how to stocks react to the news and the reason I say that because there's two ways that the markets can react they can look at it as a liquidity play where bad news is good news where if you got a miss that might mean the Fed holds off on interest rates and upgo stocks or if you get a huge win then then the Fed goes hogglish and downgo stocks so there's a liquidity aspect but then there's also the earnings aspect where a big miss could mean a weak economy and we saw this yesterday following the miss on the PMI it actually sent stocks down initially because people went well gee if the economy's not doing so well then the corporate outlook for corporate earnings goes down as well so it'll be interesting to see which side to stock traders take because it's for most of the last since the financial crisis really traders have gone mostly playing markets on liquidity where bad news was for the economy was good news for liquidity and up goes the stock market and vice versa but we have seen that points over the last year year and a half where traders kind of have gotten beyond that and focusing more on corporate earnings in which case then they should be in gear with the with the economy so we'll see what happens with with that today but I think it'll be important because we're looking at stocks in general US indices have been looking pretty tired here I remember historic September is historically the worst month of the year for stocks we often get a big correction between mid August and mid October the July bounce was right on schedule in terms of seasonality so do we get a correction here of a downward style correction or are we going to get a sideways correction where we see markets just kind of churn out for the next six weeks and of course we've got the election effect in there as as well so today should give a better indication of that whether we're into a sideways consolidation or whether we could get a sharper pullback yeah in the markets yeah I mean just just technically here sort of trying to show my chart that you know this is the weekly chart for the US that you can see that we've we've broken that previous record high but we really haven't gone too far since and we're at the moment a bit like in gold it's at a bit of a pivotal level we're basically we've tried to break down below that previous record high on a couple of occasions including this week if we get a close below that previous record high to my mind that that's what will open us up to that that bigger that bigger pullback which which could just stop at this previous peak here but I have a feeding where it would be a me it would be a challenge down at 18,000 again yeah I think over I find it interesting because I see a lot of people calling for the market about to to fall apart and things like that but in actuality when you look at it and you look at the the economic environment things are actually starting to are looking like you know this could be a sideways consolidation but more of a mid-cycle pause before we go up again it'll be interesting to see but actually one more quick one if you could just pull up before we get the numbers could you pull up either the Ibex or the Italy plays because I just wanted to show something there with on the incontinental if you're able that would be fine is this the the European markets that have been lagging so so we've seen the US do well we've seen the UK do well we had a golden cross in the Dax this last week but if you look at things like Spain and Italy and France that have been really really struggling throughout the year they actually look like they're getting ready for a breakout so that's something also that's that's quite intriguing here and I'm interested this year you're going to get a bit of a reversal in performance where some of these have some some catch up room but still the point is if the things are about are these things a leading indicator that things are about to fall apart or these things getting ready to catch up and I think that's another thing we want to be watching here and we're down to less than a minute to go here less than a minute to go so we already said a bit of a reaction goal here see that little push got my I've got another thing to push these over here one other thing I should note is you've got everybody is really focused on this number but also it's a long weekend in the US and Canada this weekend so I think what we'll see is probably a huge amount of volatility right off of this and then of course around 9 30 when the exchange is open but by but by noon things will probably settle out because people will start taking off early to go to the cottage and wherever else are going yeah so we're getting some dollar weakness going on here with about 20 seconds to go you know maybe an assumption of a week ahead line here goal pushing higher your efficient is that a squeeze before it goes the other way you know certainly some some tight stops would have been taken out would drop any other way taking the stops on the downside now it looks like we just this is what you've got to be careful with these these data oh there we go it's a bit weaker than a hundred fifty one and the wages lower as well Colin what do you what do you make it out so you were mentioning the wages so that that that wage element and the unemployment rate bit of a shocker there particularly and we're getting to dollar weakness is following through yes so it is seen a little bit come in as division takes a bit of the pressure off of the Fed to raise interest rates in September so we could see them I think they might then use September as a signal for what they might do in in December with the non-farm payrolls if you factor out the 20k increase here would be a 171 so still a little bit below the the street private payrolls had a big upward we're actually came in even more disappointing 126k versus 180k so the government must have propped things up and and overall the things were attached soft on inflation so yeah I think we're looking at a little bit more of a of a dovish read to this let's see what are the can you bring up the US 30 here Jasper it looks like we're getting a minute next we're probably seeing a little bit again a bit yes so this is a this is the one-hour thing yeah we've tried to push up to the top side yeah mark a bit undecided what to make this maybe that that stock reaction is symbolic of what's about to happen in the dollar because if as you're saying really the Fed still in play but just a little bit delayed maybe maybe this this dollar weakness is going to be used as an opportunity to to buy it up the the language from the fed is enough to go ahead no I was just going to say that the you know the the language from the Fed here is the difference maker and you know you can use that you know discussion we're having about that the stock market to say that whether the stocks react positively or negatively to what this you can say is maybe bad news ish is dependent on the language of the Fed and if the Fed are talking up the chance of a rate hike that's good you know and then we see bad data that that's the markets reaction as we saw yesterday PMIs was well we don't want the Fed hiking if the economy is looking like the signs of a weakening so that you know maybe that that plays into it here we're getting a bit of a pullback Collier what do you think when do you think this this market I think we're seeing mixed reaction here because like the data is a little bit disappointing but it's not terrible I mean it's not it it's not an awful report so by any means the it's just kind of middle of the road and I think you'll probably see that it's it's not bad enough to to rule out a rate hike this year you certainly still could get one in December September is looking a little more iffy now but but it's not a it's not going off the rails either so and and hourly earnings up 2.4% you know maybe slightly but but there's still a 2.4% which is still running above the above the Fed's 2% inflation target so it's more of a I think it moved this this and probably what we're seeing it in the stocks especially is this just kind of muddies the water and leaves things uncertain it's kind of like yelling speech last week where you could read into it and I think in a lot of ways you could read anything into this particular report as well and I suspect that each side will will find a way to spin it the way they want coming out of this I'm just going to see if there's any changes to the on the Fed fundside so we were at 36% on before the numbers came out and now it's 34% for September and 58% chance of a hike before the before the December meetings so overall like this the the the bond traders are taking this as neutral to just slightly dovish and I think that's what we'll probably see in the in the markets as well so so based on that we could see some chopping us through the morning and I'm just looking here while we're at it at the at the trade figures which also came out at the same time and are also getting we'll get overshadowed of course but we can mention them so US trade balance 39.5 billion deficits street expected 41 and a half so a little bit better than expected Canada trade deficit was two and a half billion dollars Street was expecting 3.3 billion deficits so that was a little bit of an improvement there for Canada so those were those were the other data we've got out this morning at 10 a.m. Eastern time we get US factory orders which which also could create some interest if there's if there's any kind of a significant surprise the streets expecting 2% after one and a half percent decline last month and here's just dragging in work as you were mentioning before so chance of a hike column was mentioning pushed up a little bit 34% what was it I'm not sure what it was pre-meeting I think it was more the region of 30% has that gone up it was at 30 but yeah it's still up it was at 30% right after yelling talk to be for fishery it had this interview hmm and and it was at 36 this morning right before the numbers came out so it's still sitting right in that kind of middle of the road and then we're in the sort of approaching 60% chance the market's pricing for a hike in in December as we currently stand so you'd imagine that the Fed is going to be aware of market expectations and they're not going to try and raise rates into a 40% chance unless they really try and change that percentage in the next few days following this report but as you said this report you know have this report been a real blowout they might have really tried to push September but you'd imagine that probably the the talk is going to be a bit more orientated towards just lifting the chances in in December in the following days all that into my mind the interpretation mark yeah that's what I'm thinking so we're seeing the gains extended at the moment so no sign of them of a an immediate backlash the other way but two considerations are as Colin mentioned the fact that you know in the US they're heading off their holidays in a couple of hours if having if not having done so already and the other thing that if this is still generally okay for the Fed you know Colin was talking about 100 K is a base few people talking about 150 K so it's obviously to pass both of those in terms of a sort of lower limit for what's acceptable for the Fed then actually you know this this move could fade for both of those reasons so be be savvy to that that's right and so we could still see some choppiness today and then something that I know some people have our traders have pointed out recently as well as that where we've seen over the last few it's a lot of late-day reversals in the in the market as well as though you kind of get one move directly related to whatever the news of the day is and then quietly at the end of the day then you see things settle out but I think today really the end of the day trading might be more like noon rather than rather than between three and four because I suspect that that a lot of people are going to shut down this afternoon and then whoever's left of course is the usually on the desk is of the just sit there and don't make any waves here yeah write it out to to a home time any any questions any questions from any of the attendees here any kind of queries you have on this data or just any particular charts you wanted to look at in the sort of final seven minutes we've got here in this this webinar if there are if there wasn't a thing you had in mind send it through to the the Q&A box or actually if I've got the chat window open there we go yeah if anyone wants to send a chat message or Q&A message either to the group or to me or Colin personally feel free to do so and we can we can get into that so we're seeing spike in the euro column but also Germany 30 pushing higher as well so not necessarily a sign of the European markets not necessarily reacting to the spike in the euro here as you said maybe just a sort of long-term belief here that actually this is just a hiccup in the road in the euro can head down as the Fed pushes towards a ray hike in December yeah I still think yes they're probably looking towards a ray hike in in December at this point but I think September is probably out I think that I think what I think a lot in a lot of what was happening with Dudley and Fisher was that we had gotten to the point where the probability of a hike was getting down close to zero and the probability of a December hike was yeah getting down close to I don't know if somebody ever said anything and I think what they were trying to do in a lot of ways was keep the street from getting carried away and I think that's what they saw was that and then you know people were starting to push out no ray hike till you know well into 2017 when and so I think they started talking that way to kind of bring the market back in and the Fed will probably be happy with this 30 to 40 percent September and around 50 to 60 percent for for December on the Fed funds is probably where they want to be because they don't want to get boxed in by the market they're still the central bank and they're supposed to be the world's premier central bank and they're supposed to tell the market what to do the other way around and I think sometimes that some people get ahead of themselves and they they think that the markets can tell the Fed what to do and then is every so often the Fed has to come out and remind them who's in charge yeah yeah although of course in doing that they are putting their own credibility at risk because obviously they tried to do the same thing in in June but then as you as you mentioned that that poor NFP report came along a bit of soft US data and obviously Brexit and they had to just pull back so they made a bunch of noises that a June rate hike was on then it never happened so bit of a similar sort of thing going on here for September so I guess they have to they have to match up adjusting expectations but you know but still keeping it realistic I think but I would agree at the moment it is realistic to to height rates in December that seems like where they're going to position the market for now I got a couple of questions here Colin I don't know if yelling speech from yeah go ahead no sorry I was going to say we've got a couple of questions actually two separate questions on dollar yen and then another one just on on is sterling affected by the Fed against a basket of currencies well you know when you're looking at sterling against a basket of currencies obviously the biggest component of that basket is the dollar so it's going to have the most individual effect on the counter to any kind of UK economic news but obviously Brexit has kind of increased the kind of pound impact on you know on particularly sterling dollar but also the the the pound basket so you've got to say what's happening domestically in the UK is probably the biggest driver of the pound against the basket of currencies but you know if you're looking for the the outside influences certainly the Fed is it's well up there for for a multitude of reasons absolutely and I think we're seeing that on balance the pound is starting to recover now and and even if we leave out cable for a minute because of the US the US effect but if you start looking at pound against the yen pound against the euro in particular it's it's starting to break out and and we've seen a good bottom form in in the pound over the summer and it's now starting to recover so I would say against a basket of currencies it's definitely looking looking like overall the the worst is behind it and it's starting to recover on the flip side of that then we'll go into I'll mention the yen versus a basket of currencies which is that the yen is generally weakening whether it's against the dollar the euro the the loony the pound you name it the yen is is starting to weaken because Japan's economic data hasn't been that great the Bank of Japan members Kuroda and others are still talking stimulus and the Bank of Japan has a meeting this month and a lot of people are starting to speculate that they might it's been long enough that that now they might be ready to start to do something else in terms of stimulus so that's why you're seeing particularly in that all this particular movement in the dollar yen because you had the speculation that well you could have the Fed going one way and a week later you could have the Bank of Japan Kuroda again the Bank of Japan going the other way and and so we're starting to see that play out but but we're also getting the the pound yen as has been quite active on the recovery and sterling so yeah those are a couple of the more active yen pairs at this point yeah I just pulled up the the euro yen pair just because I um why I like the RSI I know you do as well Colin we're just quite a fairly distinctive down trend line in the the weekly RSI on euro yen um getting a little bit of a break out here and we're getting RSI pushing up to 50 um corresponding with a low around a long term support level around 110 and a seeming a higher low here if we pull out to the the monthly chart on dollar yen we can see that there's been some big time tests this one 10 level in the past it seems like this this decline um in the yen pairs and obviously appreciation of the yen seems to have stalled out that obviously coincides with dollar yen which we've just had a few questions about at the key 100 level it's looking a bit like we could be on for a uh a double top here in uh sorry a double bottom here in in dollar yen and on top of that something to consider is that as we see for example you know at the beginning of the year we had all these fears about China and through the middle of the year we had all these fears about brexit and and a lot of that is subsiding as well but that's a lot of the things that reasons that that that defensive play is like the yen and gold got driven up so much in the first half of this year and now we're seeing gold has rolled over and starting to come down and now we're seeing the yen start to break as well so had a few questions on um you know how what what was the indication here that that uh you know that dollar yen would drop and uh and euro rally going into this obviously no one knows the the data beforehand um but uh but technically you can start to spot some kind of signs of weakness and we ran into that 104 level yesterday and then saw a pretty sharp reversal and you can just see on the daily chart we put in this shooting star bearish reversal here and so having retraced i would say that's probably ends up being about 50 percent of that daily candle uh if i'm able to accurately draw that enough on there then we drop down in terms of time frames okay you can see it was the 61.8 percent retracement of that oh well was it yeah there we go see that's um you know that's uh technical analysis working quite well for you there giving a little bit of an even if even if this level hadn't played out you know as it was a kind of decent risk to reward ratio if the if the data came in weak for those selling up in this region uh to push down to the lows with only just the the risk up here to the previous high so um some technical basis for uh for uh going shut up the dolly yen before this we get you know we're not getting quite the follow through we're getting starting to see that snapback that we said was um was a possibility here Colin some of these losses and dolly yen being given up whether we can close below this support in my mind is probably the determinant whether this down moves gets any follow through in the in the short term because uh as we were just saying it kind of seems like these yen pairs are popping to the upsides and maybe even though we're due a bit of a bigger correction the downside doesn't seem like the most favorable one to be on at the moment did you have any interest in looking at um a dollar CAD we don't obviously have the canadian employer that um uh but why not sure let's bring it up yeah we didn't get we don't get candid till next week this time so it's a it's often fun to be able to compare the two when they both come out uh simultaneously and uh but what we're seeing a dollar CAD's been getting mostly knocked around lately by the ups and downs of the oil price yeah and uh and so we had a big pullback in oil yesterday and it was kind of stabilizing today and I believe from your brand chart it was looking like oils picked up a little bit off of this as the US dollar ease is back so uh but and and so we're seeing that rollover in the dollar CAD as well so some resistance came in around 131 and 131 20 and it's rolled back under uh under 131 now but the 130 level is a biggie it's still the uh the 50 day average and the uh sorry I'm just gonna bring it up on my charts here it's got a there's a whole pile of indicators for at rate of 130 it's the uh there's a big round number there there's also the uh dollar CAD so a big round number of 50 day uh a retracement level and the 50 day moving average all right near 130 so we're dipping back towards that but that's really the key support for that one if we see dollar CAD as start to break 130 we'd actually also being also indicative of a bigger correction in the in the US dollar as as well and I see we've got the dollar index back to 90 back under 95 50 the big level for the dollar index really though is still 95 we've seen uh uh 96 kind of tried to break above 96 and it's kind of failed so this tells me as you ease back towards 95 that again it's this kind of neutral fed level where yeah they probably won't raise in september me but they they probably will still signal that they're that they're ready to go in december yeah so more data watching to come after this yes um it'll be interesting too to see I guess is as we look at some of this data coming through over the next month or two is whether the just as we saw the brexit vote in june had a bit of an impact on some indicators in the UK is does the US election have an impact on on some of the data in the United States absolutely and that'll be hard to measure unfortunately that's something that we probably won't know for sure until three months after the fact when we've all moved on in it doesn't do anybody any good but it's just something you can keep in the back of your mind I'm actually glad we pulled up this um dollar CAD chart because I think again going back to this well how do we how do you trade non-farm payrolls you know um I mean just the the result itself today is evident that the economists have very little idea or you know what the numbers are going to be the the consensus being 180 000 you know is actually 151 so off by nearly 30 000 jobs um I've certainly said bigger misses than that in the past but obviously difficult to predict but you know this dollar CAD pair is a good example of where we've got a pretty well established zone of resistance up here in uh in dollar CAD we're coming into this non-farm payrolls release we've had two candles stalling into this previous resistance zone um and then you know then as it happens the data comes in and confirms it um you know it's not always going to be the case but I think the the idea here is that you know if you're at a kind of low risk area on the chart as in you're you're selling at the top half of the zone of the of the the price range you know hoping for a drop down towards the middle of the bottom of the range you know if if you're selling close enough to the top your your risk is limited but your potential gain is a lot more so uh you know there's these kind of economic announcements uh the kind of thing that trigger these these moves to take place off these technical levels payrolls is it's often there's big surprises in it because it's a figure that's quite volatile it's a figure that's revised quite a bit and uh and between the two that it is hard to guess and when you look at something like this I try and when they look at non-farm to factor both the headline number and the revision because that's important so for example like last month you had a 20k upward revision so your bar's been raised so if you factor that back in and the revision back into the headline number you'd be at 171 versus 180 and it's important because some months I mean this month it was 20 000 but some months it can be 50 000 in the revision so it it makes it difficult to read in terms of how do you do it it's already coming out there so it always means for great trading action and I didn't take long and but when we go on on twitter we have non-farm payrolls guesses and I think guesses for a lot of people is the word because it's pretty hard to come up with anything definitive but it means a great great market action that's for sure okay so I guess that's it we're overrunning a bit here so thank you very much for everyone for attending I hope you've got some some good trades off there we've got a good you know goods across the board kind of weak reports well weaker than expected report which has pushed the the dollar low so because it doesn't seem like there was any real conflict all of it was a bit weaker we're seeing that that kind of dollar weakness hold for now and and the stock market gains hold for now but obviously bear in mind the US are off on holiday so you know don't necessarily expect these gains to extend too far into the close thanks a lot colleague thanks probably see you choppy morning today and that's oh thank you jasper thanks everybody