 Okay, very good morning to you. It is Wednesday 11th of November. I hope you're doing well I'm going to get you up to speed on where we closed on Wall Street last night Some things overnight in the Asia Pacific session to be aware of Particularly for internet-based technology names in China, which are underperforming quite substantially over the last two days because of some new Onus being put on from the government over that sector And then we're going to look at just generally how the different asset classes are reacting because we continue to see a play in response to the vaccine news that we saw earlier in the week So once again the nasdaq 100 underperformed Technology as you can see here on the heat map from the close on the s&p The underperformer amazon down around three and a half similar case for for microsoft as well But the doubt up again around 0.9 percent the s&p roughly flat slightly negative so Couple of things then to to talk about on the the vaccine a couple of resources as well I want to share that I think could be useful for you guys and then also an update on Covid-19 particularly in the u.s. Where case numbers continue to rise at this point in time so Let's just get into the charts then this morning and have a look at how things are setting up for the european open and stock futures Generally flat in terms of the u.s. Based and that's that already underperforming again. So that that general correlation Being maintained for the moment with the tech sector under more pressure than the broader market as we see this kind of Soft rotation if you like out of some of these big tech names one thing I would Say and I did see an interesting comment out of analysts at sock gen last night and I do definitely agree They said that a more systematic rotation out of big tech is going to be gradual More certainty about the course of the pandemic and the introduction of a vaccine would be needed before such a change Could take hold in earnest and I do agree with that although we're seeing This kind of rotation into cyclicals or even yesterday with the tech underperforming the russell 2000 grouping of small cap stocks more tied to the barometer of kind of health Or expectations over the u.s. Economy that was up about 2 so we're seeing a little bit of it at the moment But I think it's a little bit too early to be cashing in your chips thinking that this vaccine is the silver bullet That's going to just fix the coronavirus because I I don't think that's the case But for the moment we are seeing At least a further continuation with yields still On the front foot at the moment And that's pressuring the us 10 year down at the bottom right which continues to remain Down fairly sharply nearly two points from where that we were before that news and fires are broke early in the week Otherwise in the currency markets Things are relatively quiet. The Dixie's pretty flat Sterling again an out performer And on that note, let's just have a quick look at some of these charts then and and sterling has been Irrespective of the looming kind of brexit negotiations which remain at an impasse despite a looming deadline as we've said many times before that's kind of a side issue almost because We know that there's always going to be flexibility and the real cliff edge deadline legally is not until the end of the year So I don't think the brexit thing really is That crucial short term in a day trading environment for sterling right now What is is two things one dollar fluctuation and two Technical breaks of key levels and we certainly saw that this rectangle bar goes back to where cable was basically trading before The the market shakeout that we had on the pandemic on the first wave back in march We came back and added as resistance back in the summer in early august Acted and price got rejected in late october and then the breakthrough of that in yesterday's session Just saw a further acceleration to the upside. So here now Technically 133 20 in the futures would put us back up to the high and printed on the 4th of september So that's an area of resistance. I'll be looking for so potentially some more upside here On a side note, there was a phone call Said to have gone on for 20 or so minutes between joe biden and boris johnson as obviously Been some fairly harsh words from biden before about similarities between the uk prime minister and donald trump And also as well The brexit stance that johnson has held Jeopardizing potentially the priest agreement in northern ireland has been something that biden feels very strongly about with his irish heritage But apparently those phone calls were fairly lukewarm But biden just looking to assert his authority that there must not be a hard border in northern ireland. So I don't think that's really a reason for the pound to be bid this morning I think more so it's just holding on continuation of the trend which we've seen yesterday just more favorable setup If anything rather than outright fundamentals, I'd say in regards to sterling for the moment The nasdaq as I said Is underperforming has done since the beginning of the week when the news broke and just going to stick this on a daily chart And you can see here We got very close towards the all-time high in the futures before the kind of reversal came On the back of the news we found and to the tick bounce off the 50 dma In fact in the nasdaq 100 future yesterday and we're sitting at around the 21 dma for the moment So near term if we remain under pressure I'd be keeping definitely an eye on that low from yesterday's session that comes in at 11 503 That is around then the 50 dma any breach of that market could remain fairly heavy until we get down to around Let me just remove this to make it a bit clearer I'd be looking at around this area if I put a rectangle in the nasdaq as a key area of support or target on any shorts Which would be 11 347 further down then bigger levels start coming in really if we're looking at a Much deeper move down at 11 000 just up there 10 9 39 We'd encapsulate some of these previous highs and lows that we saw back in the early part of this month for the smp It's been ready to be quiet yesterday and and I think that's a good lesson Of course for any new traders and that is the the notion that after a big day of price activity It's not uncommon to see just a bit of consolidation as people kind of pause for breath you either Are in a good profitable position after that day or you're licking your wounds slightly and that does tend to behaviorally reflecting price Where after a big bout of volatility it's followed by a period of relative calm And that was definitely what we saw yesterday and for now then I think we're just watching this range I think in the near term you can kind of define A more tighter range, which is to pivot the overnight Asia pacific low kind of around what 35 40 to 39 Is the the range at the moment the deeper range though would be down at the S1 which would encapsulate then the close on friday of electronic trade the double bottom that we've now Eaten out both in overnight yesterday and yesterday afternoon trade with the s1 would be a key area of support So kind of looking at this range at the moment Any breakthrough of that pivot and level could then see A push down in the direction towards the bottom end of that range And if so just looking to see what the status quo is at that time with the momentum the general broader asset class Movement and sentiment to see whether or not we'd get a break And if we did further push on or the reverse Key level then would be looking any break of the top side of that range for a further push back on to the upside If that were to materialize Gold's pretty similar as well Obviously a big move on the day of the the Pfizer Vaccine information breaking since that point similar to s&p we're in a bit of a tight range at the minute on the downside be keeping an eye on the Low that we printed in the futures during the the evening yesterday So late us hours around 1871 And on the upside around 84s would be the top end of the range that's been in play for the last 12 to 20 hours or so the other asset, of course, which continues to outperform is oil an oil markets continuing to kind of take heed from the fact that Um, if a vaccine is forthcoming it's going to pick up in demand expectations less globalized lockdowns these would all be bullish fundamentals for oil and if you start to extrapolate this with Technical levels being breached you can see how the market Had a had a kind of false break initially in the age-specific session banged on the door a couple of times on that key technical level Which was the high that we saw going back to the 20th of october And now we've just accelerated up and the near-term target for just generally spec speculative traders Would be up at around the the r1 level of 42 62 on the daily then you can see the the importance of that technical breach and was assisted some of that upside if I just put a rectangle here this kind of area Again, if I just color it just to make it as explicit as possible So that area has been such a good one. We can even probably extend that out even further if I just Was to click on the rectangle here Into some of the price movement as well that was helping support price on the other side of this level Which was during august, but you can see it's acted as a real Significant area of resistance since mid september and the breakthrough of that we found and tested some support So it's a nice platform for price now and we've pushed up to that next area of relevance of 36 On the upside if we continue to move higher I'll be keeping an eye here on 43 32 which brings in Not only the the kind of area and cluster of highs that we were printing back in the summer But also was that low we printed back on the the second of march before that failed opec meeting gap down came in in early early march So kind of here it would be a key level to look out for any breach above there then oil can get Can move pretty quick on the upside and certainly that will come as some relief to the opec plus members Who seemingly? Market participants generally are happy to brush aside the fact that libyan oil production is back to was now a million Which is very high Compared to to where they were just a short time ago as kind of civil rest or an agreement within that region To stop the infighting has helped production return And then the other thing of course what we had last night was the api oil inventories and just having a quick recap of those Another bullish factor to just help act as a catalyst on those technical breaks to draw down in the headline figure of 5.1 million deeper drawn expected three Cushing draw 1.2 gasoline a much deeper drawn and expected as well at 3.3 million. So all adding to that directional play in in crude oil But let's have a look at a few things in particular. I wanted to talk about This which was fiza now i released the briefing yesterday Hopefully i made it fairly clear about reasons for a little bit of a reality check perhaps possibly sounding a little bit pessimistic about the initial Very positive reaction that we've had to the fires and news and by entech when it broke at the beginning of the week And the same things are being reiterated now in in much of the major press So bloomberg leading with the article that's pretty similar to our discussion Talking about the stuff of, you know the cost of transportation distribution Is amplified by the fact that You will need a second shot one month after the first adds to the logistical kind of complications and also As i said the cost given the fact that the degree of this particular vaccine is the Ultra low temperatures around i think minus 1775 degrees celsius, which definitely makes it more problematic for Developing world countries who generally don't have that infrastructure for that type of facilities So the cost implication be very high not only that the vaccine goes bad five days after thawing as well, so there's kind of a time Span on how quickly it needs to be Implemented after it does reach its destination And not only that no current vaccine has ever used the mrna technology as well So a number of hurdles perhaps that that still need to be To be crossed or or leaped over at the moment though the market as i said Equities of kind of continuing a rotational moderate rotational play Out of tech and certainly a little bit more now into a more cyclical based kind of view Based on the economic recovery now on the back of a force coming vaccine I would say as i said before a little bit early to get too ahead of yourself for a more deeper Acceleration of that rotation out of tech i would say One of my colleagues eddie did a great chat in the amplify live Room yesterday and he was talking about the fact that yes zoom shares have come off considerably from their highs These kind of pandemic plays have been unwound for example But you know when you talk about the priority of who is going to be getting and receiving these shots There's obviously an order of an order of hierarchy given the elder people first. So if you are a young 20 mid 25 year old employee working in a general industry that that can accommodate Online delivery or services or or just general carrying out your business activities Well, that's not going to change because by the time it drips down to those Demographics that are less prone to to catching this disease They're still going to be using zoom in the meantime. So Yes, perhaps those shares a little bit overstretched given how far they've risen over the period of the last six to eight months But I think it's a little bit much to say it's kind of the end of the road for a lot of those individual single stock names So, yeah On that point though another chat we were having with our traders internally yesterday was about look What's really important now then is that market sensitivity to current virus updates is very high And so therefore you'd be remiss not to be a kind of semi expert in at least Knowing the landscape of how many phase three Vaccines are in large scale testing at the moment. What are the corporations involved with it? What are the differences between the the testing that they're doing the vaccines that they're trying to produce? Which ones have got more chance of you know success rate? And therefore how do you anticipate then the timing and how the market subsequently might react when that news breaks and there's a really great Um Tracker that's being done by the new york times. I shared this on my twitter account Yesterday, so if you go on my hand or scroll back through you better find the actual link to this But if you scroll down not only does it give you kind of the general update about how the clinical trials work and and so on Some kind of general knowledge stuff you should be aware of but you can filter the list of vaccines And so if you do phase three, which is generally what we're looking at here You can see Moderna for example the buy and deck Pfizer one And it just gives you a nice short sharp summary of exactly what it is. How much has it been tested? What is the timeline? What's the likelihood of approval? What are the obstacles? You know just a nice Uh competent knowledge base that that will be required if you're really going to get hold of Any subsequent news that might come out and as I said, I think at this point in time now the election is really old news now Um, you know the the main macro narrative is going to be driven by The vaccine because that's going to determine then what the economic outlook looks like in the future So this isn't going to go any way go away anytime soon And so I think definitely swat up on this stuff If and when you have time Um on the covet side, I just wanted to give a quick update As I've been discussing throughout the build up to the u.s. election Uh, it's almost been forgotten that the u.s. Is currently suffering quite an increase In covid cases the u.s. Reported a record nearly 143 000 coronavirus infections as of monday and appears poised to reach the most hospitalizations yet later this year I even saw a stat this morning that u.s. Cases um reported by some sources to be now at 200 000 You know these uh, these numbers are rising consistently at this point in time What you're looking at here on the chart then is Kind of the death toll tally the seven-day average is probably more Important to look at rather than the isolated number in itself And the thing I just want to draw your attention to is that since mid october This number has been gradually rising and that doesn't really show much sign of plateauing at any point soon Particularly with the acceleration we're seeing in national Numbers across the board now you remember during the election week or two ago as well That was definitely the midwest that was seeing the bulk of the cases while ellen Illinois, wisconsin, ohio, they reported that record single day jumps in infections yesterday on tuesday Continuing the rising trend in that region. However, new coronavirus cases in new york state now are nearing 4 000 a day the tally is the most positive cases since the start of may When new york city cases were at their peak new jersey reported nearly 4 000 new cases as well That's an 87 jump In one day so Yeah, definitely those highly popular areas if we see another breakout back into the tri-state area Definitely these numbers have to propensity to increase rapidly elsewhere You know the uk Numbers continue to remain pretty elevated as well So britain recorded 532 covet 19 deaths the highest total since may so this is the case number Which was up two percent from where it was last week, but if you look at the death count That's now up to the highest it's been since we were kind of coming down off that first wave peak So we're still a long way from where we were Back in the depths of the pandemic in march when the numbers were Well in excess of 1 000 we're about half of that at the moment I guess the thing to to watch here is the steepness of this curve And how persistent the the kind of rolling average increases are as we go through day to day The idea being the closer up we get towards this type of area The more likelihood is that you know, we've got to move on beyond the current level of lockdown that we're in To something even more stringent and that obviously is going to have Far-reaching economic implications in mainland europe still they're under pressure france reporting most fatalities since april yesterday Uh, so definitely this covet situation the market is very absorbed at the moment on the positive positive developments on the vaccine What i'm kind of semi anticipating this week though is that that optimism will fade As reality kind of kicks in that look this fires the situation, you know a government like Matt Hancock the health secretary in the uk yesterday saying right Stuff start, you know building up the factories get ready the the shots coming for christmas It's like look do understand that politicians Need to drive a narrative to manage public perception um, and so what politicians say and the deliverable dates they'll put forward Almost entirely will be missed Uh, because that's then they're not looking to be accurate. Their objective is different It's about perception control of fear which can consequently impact then Things like confidence and ultimately the economy so if they can maintain positivity In generally in the public mood, that's a good thing However, don't be fooled by thinking that the dates they're putting forward would be accurate deliverable dates because they're not going to be I can I can assure you So things to be aware of particularly this covet situation as well Which at the moment is being over shadowed by the vaccine situation But but if these numbers do start getting to as some reports would suggest 200 000 cases in the us And still seemingly there's no real definitive more immediate action being taken in the states Things are going to get worse before they get better at that point Now that does bring about questions as well about well, what's the situation with stimulus and This is mitch McConnell, of course The senate majority leader He said yesterday he did not see a need for a giant coronavirus relief bill And there were bipartisan interest in passing an omnibus appropriations bill before the end of the year so again this idea of um a vaccine It removes the emphasis or at least market expectation of a large scale kind of stimulus coming in and so That's a double-edged sword in itself In the sense that well if the covid situation gets worse Did I actually need to deliver something a little bit more magnitude? Because overall more likely so that by the time any implementation of this vaccine starts to Go out on a worldwide basis. You're talking about well into 2021 if not 2022 So time is of the essence and and so the deciding factor on the size of that bill I guess is going to be determined by the covid situation and any subsequent lockdowns The rbnz overnight not going to spend too much time on this They didn't change rates. They didn't change their qe program. This was all very much as expected They also as expected Began or announced their new funding for lending program Which is going to commence in december aimed at reducing banks funding costs and lowering Interest rates as expected They were though quite upbeat on their view of the economic recovery and as such Traders as you can see here have actually priced out now the chance of negative rates happening next year Was the main kind of takeaway looking at the calendar for today It is actually very quiet. There is nothing Major coming out from an economic data point of view At all there is the opec monthly report coming out in a few hours time Speakers as well. There's a few to be aware of ecb focus legard the gwindos so the two kind of The president the vice president and the chief economist philip lane is also going to be speaking all of those based in the afternoon So I would say focus is probably going to remain on the general themes that's been In focus over the last day or so Be mindful and vigilant of any further vaccine information that comes out But for the moment, I'd say fairly range bound activity In some of the u.s. Equity indices now keep an eye on them the range I guess either side of that trading ban that we're in at the moment same case for gold with currency markets I think no point in fighting the trend at the moment with cable which continues to move higher And then we discuss those key levels in oil where generally Fairly favorable headwinds there now both fundamentally and technically And this leads us up then for the all infantry numbers, which we're going to get A bit later on All right, that is it any questions at all. Let me know otherwise wish you guys a good day and Let's see you same time tomorrow