 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network This is my final show before I am out all of next week to move So wanted to go out on a high note Hopefully have some good stuff for you for today and thankfully major league baseball obliged because we have got a massive slate on Tap first night We're gonna break down my favorite money lines and strikeout props across the night over at Fandall Sportsbook and send you off into the weekend Hopefully on a winning note Which I'll see on that but going pretty good about the slates We'll see how things play out over at Fandall for today. Welcome on into covering the spread That's right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonness. I am a senior writer and analyst for a number fire here to preview tonight's MLB Slate breaking down my favorite bets on the money line and strikeout props based on the odds over at Fandall Sportsbook Did want to mention the schedule for next week as mentioned I am out all of next week, but we still have shows here talked about this yesterday with Austin Swain He'll be filling in for me Monday and then Wednesday through Friday. No show on the fourth because of the holiday So for shows still next week the Austin Tom Vecchio covering for me on the solo shot as well So all the typical shows will still be available in the podcast feed now They will not be on a fandal YouTube page or the fandal TV plus app because I will be out And I'm the only one who knows how to run the video software So we'll pick that back up for the solo shot post all-star break and for covering the spread the Monday on the all-star break So again, we'll still have podcasts, but only over on the podcast feed for that time Also, no Rob Friedman for today. He is traveling this week and I'm out next week So we'll pick back up with Rob pitching Ninja the Friday after the all-star break Which will be a fun way to get back into with all the teams back in action Likely a lot of aces there too. So that will be a delight as always as for today We'll dive into the MLB slave breaking down my favorite bets here And just one second the first baseball season is in full swing And there's no better place to get in on the action than fandal America's number one sports book because right now New customers get a no sweat first bed up to $1,000 That's a $1,000 back in bonus bets if your first bet doesn't win So don't miss your chance to snag a no sweat first bed up to $1,000 when you join fandal today fandal official partner of major league Baseball major league baseball trademarks used with permission must be 21 plus and present in select states first online real money wager only Must $10 deposit acquired refund issued is non with trouble bonus bets that expire seven days after receipt Restrictions apply see full terms at fandal.com a slash sports book Fandal is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas star casino LLC gambling problem Call 1 800 gambler or visit fandal.com slash RG in Arizona 1 800 next step or tax an x-def to 5 3 3 4 2 in Connecticut 1 8 8 8 7 8 9 7 7 7 7 7 or visit ccpg.org chat in Indiana 1809 with it in Wyoming in Kansas 1 800 5 2 2 4700 during Kansas KS gambling health comm Louisiana's 1 8 7 7 7 7 7 0 stop in Massachusetts gambling helpline M a dot org or quite hundred 3 2 7 50 50 for 24 7 support in Maryland MD gambling help at orc in New York 1 8 7 7 8 hope and wire text open y and in West Virginia Go to 1 800 gambler net Let's dig in now to Friday's major league baseball slate and begin things off with the money lines I like over at fandal sport book the first one has moved a bit since where it was from where it was this morning That is the Orioles money line It was minus one away now out to minus 112 at fandal sportsbook as always won't be price sensitive The implied odds of minus 112 are 52.8 percent. I have the Orioles at 55.3 percent So still enough value there for them to be a value by my model Again 55.3 percent for me the implied odds at this number are 52.8 percent And I do understand why the market is here. I understand why The twins are getting a bit of lovin. It's because Pablo Lopez is a very good pitcher who my model likes a lot But I think the offensive gap between the two teams is pretty large right now And Dean Kramer the Orioles starter is improving over his past seven starts Kramer Kramer Has basically ditched his slider Instead leaning more in his cutter and in that time that seven start sample both his ERA and his skill interactive ERA are below 4 Which means the results have been good But the peripherals have also been good validating what we've seen from a results perspective Kramer has had some tough matchups sprinkled in there and the twins right now are not bad I think they will be long term because they've got enough good Talented batters who I think we should expect them to be better in the long run But they're not there right now a lot of strikeouts of this team's not putting the ball in play enough and it's been a tough go of it I think the Orioles are the better team in this game once you account for starting pitching offense, etc Etc and once you account for home field the twins are being treated as a better team here So to me I want to ride at the Orioles I do think they're a very good talented baseball team But obviously check around to see if you can still get a minus 208 out there somewhere But even a minus 112 I do think there is value in the Orioles there. So they'll be the first money line I like for tonight. The second one is a true slap fight out at Coors field It is between the Rockies and the Tigers. This one has also moved a bit It is currently the Rockies plus 102 the money line against the Tigers It was plus 106 earlier on but even a plus 102. I am okay with that for the Rockies here Taking on the Tigers even pride odds a plus 102 are 50 or 49.5 percent my model has the Rockies pretty decently above that they're above 50 percent So value for me here And I think I was a bit surprised to see this one where it is because I went in thinking maybe I'll show value on the Tigers Because my model is not super enthusiastic about awesome Gomber But the Rockies are a more competent offense now with CJ Chrome being back and they're more competent against righties Then they are against lefties facing a righty in Michael Lorenzen tonight, too Has pitched really well this year part of that that was been thanks to a healthy number of good matchups He has had pitching in the AL central He's gotten a lot of softer opponents and that's been a plus for Lorenzen as far as looking at his results I do think that he's good I'm just not sure he's as good as results have shown thus far when Lorenzen has faced tougher teams We've seen the results fall off and obviously the Rockies are not tough They're not a good not a tough matchup by any means, but pitching of course is tough So my model does have the Rockies favor here even with this being a plus 102 now versus plus 106 I do still show value there if it gets to Where the Rockies are like minus 105 or so that's probably where I start to back off the Rockies For me 52.3% to win so still a bit of wiggle room But minus 105 or so I'm backing off at that point plus 102 still a good bet by my numbers the Rockies a fine bet in my eyes The third money line I like for tonight is going to be in this Yankees versus Cardinals match Bobby's of the Yankees trending back up once again, and they're facing a lefty and Matthew Lieberator It's a good thing for them because there are much better offense against lefties and against righties But I do show value in the Cardinals here with their money line at minus 108 right now over at Fandall's sportsbook And again, it's another one that surprised me of it because I'm not super high on Lieberator Not just because he's a lefty, which is again the preferred spot for the Yankees But also because he's had decreased velocity over his past four starts and the peripherals for Lieberator in that sample are pretty bad So I have a low rating on him But I still have the Cardinals win odds at fifty four point four percent their implied odds are a fifty one point nine percent For all the issues that the Cardinals have had and there are a lot of them The offense is still for the most part come through with a 110 WRC plus that 110 number applies both overall and against righties on The current active roster they're facing Luis Severino. He's had issues of his own Since he came off the IL this year and obviously he did show some life last time out in a very tough matchup So maybe Severino is getting back to being the Severino of old and maybe that's why I'm showing value on the Cardinals here undervaluing Severino as he gets back to his typical form Regardless, I do think this one should be basically a coin toss on a neutral field, but it's in st. Louis So to me That should slant things toward the Cardinals So I do like the Cardinals money line again minus 108 right now at Fandall Sportsbook I've been fifty four point four percent enough wiggle room there to feel good about the Cardinals in betting their money line for tonight The final one is a bit of a longer shot So I understand if you don't want to ride with me on this one all the other bets have at least 50% odds of cashing This one does not that is the Royals taking on the Dodgers It is unnerving to go here, but I do think the Royals are the proper side in this game their money line Is plus 184 so as always make sure you're scaling your bets to account for the fact that The odds this bet caches are lower than the odds of the other bets cash And you don't need to go as hard in order to spend a good profit from betting this one always account for the odds of Bet hits your margin for value and stuff like that when you're allocating the bet size for the bet you are placing Alec Marsh is making his debut for the Royals here and He walked too many guys in the minor so not a flawless profile But did get some ground balls did get strikeouts at a decent clip He also Got a lot of whiffs like his swinging strike rate in both double a and triple a this year was awesome Which generates some hope that maybe the strikeouts can translate to the majors He's facing bobby miller bobby miller mixed results so far in the majors But doesn't seem to be a top level ace We need to fear when we're getting plus 184 on a team at home The royals I don't think are a good team the Dodgers are obviously but the the royals do the solid bullpen behind marsh And this line is massive So I had the royals win odds above 40 percent the implied odds of plus plus 184 35.2 percent Still about five percentage points of cushion there So I understand if you don't want to go here again This is the lowest probability bet on the board fourth night for me But I think there's value here So I do want to ride at the royals plus 184 I think the market fully encapsulates how bad they are which allows us to Bet on them here today. Just kind of make an odds play again I get it if you don't want to come with very fair. I understand but it is a good value for tonight So the four money lines we're eyeing for today the Rockies plus 102 the Cardinals minus 108 Royals plus 184 and the Orioles at minus 112 all those lines available right now over a fangirl sportsbook Also, do have three strikeout props. I like for tonight the first one is going to be in the Giants versus the Mets game Carlos Carrasco is starting for the Giants Alex Cobb coming up the il For Carlos Carrasco the Mets Alex Cobb coming up the il for the Giants And I want to go with Carrasco here going under four and a half strikeouts at plus 112 on him Carrasco It's not a low strikeout matchup facing the Giants They are a team that will with but they're a very good offense too when you take them out of san francisco They can be an offense that can hurt you and that gives you a path in under where if he just struggles against a good offense That could get you an under there But Carrasco also has not been a high strikeout guy this year I think the most relevant sample on Carrasco is his pastic starts because in his second start off the il his velocity shot up so We can look at those pastic starts with the Velo being relevant and in that time Carrasco's hit the over on this prop just once Part of that could be because he had just two home games in that time but did go under in both those home games and His strikeout rate in the span is 16.7 percent 16.7 percent is not a number you expect on a prop of four and a half Now the wits have been there, especially last time out But even in that one he hit the over by just a half strikeout I also the low pitch count projection on Carrasco because he has not hit 90 pitches since may 25th That was the second game out the il good Velo there, but since then They have not given him a ton of leash There are some factors that align to make this market makes sense I don't think it is a nonsensical market because most markets are going to make sense, but I I still think I like the under here under Carrasco four and a half strikeouts plus 112 right out vandal again It is not a low strikeout matchup. He is at home There are reasons to think maybe this is uh, I understand why it's at four and a half But to me with Carrasco a strikeout projection. I think at 3.9 for today. Yeah 3.91 for Carrasco I do want to take the under a plus money at Plus 112 under four and a half Other two strikeout props I like for tonight are both in the same game That is going to be in the late game the rays taking on the mariners and so unfortunately, they're both not fun because they are both Unders, um, this one has moved a bit. Uh, one of them did but I think it's okay. Still where it's at. Let's begin with the more firm one That's shame the clan hand under six and half strikeouts at plus 102 This is partly just kind of a play on the clan of hands health because he had that back injury last time out and You don't really know if he'll get a full leash there and that's always a concern with the guy. Um, maybe he's They've said the whole time that they expect him to go They've said that he feels good. He didn't want to leave that game, which I think matters too. So I understand Maybe writing that off entirely But I've gotten projected below that even without accounting for that too much I do have a lower pitch count projection for him as a result of the back injury But that's the one tweak I've made to account for that within my model for today Even before the back injury though, McClanahan was not like bathing in strikeouts His strikeout rate in his past 10 starts is 24.4 focusing on that sample because he's thrown fewer curveballs in that span So 24.4 strikeout he did still go over six and a half strikeouts and five out of nine full starts in that span But he hit the over and just two out of five road starts. So When he goes in the road, maybe a slight downgrade there and when he did go over he was typically getting seven So just over by a half strikeout the mariners are a high strikeout team I don't want to hide that fact. Uh, they love the strikeout against lefties. So We could see McClanahan hit the over here even without getting a full 96 or whatever pitches for tonight but I think that with the back injury being in play and With the fact that he wasn't getting a ton of strikeouts before that I think we had two paths to an under here and I always do like that Especially when it's a plus money. So plus one or two under six and a half strikeouts from McClanahan that to me Makes him a good bet for today. The Bryce Miller strikeout prop has declined quite a bit It was minus 136 earlier on this morning. It was then minus 142 It's now minus 150, which means his implied is going under a 60 percent I'm getting pretty close to the point where I back off here, but I had Miller projected for 4.48 strikeouts So what I would do is shop around see if you can get under five and a half at a better number than minus 150 It's an okay bet at minus 150, but we're really really close to the point where the juice may not be worth the squeeze I think the reason why I was on this one and the reason why I would still shop around try to find under five and a half at better than minus 150 is that We know the rays have power, but they're also not a high strikeout team 21.4 strikeout right on the current active roster against righties So Miller could struggle in a tough matchup or he could be fine, but still not get strikeouts That's why I feel okay laying a decent amount of juice here now is minus 150 above decent. Yes So I would shop around I don't hate it by this 150 But I think it's kind of like the royals one where if you want to leave off your bet slip I wouldn't blame you it's not as good of the values it was earlier on so That's more of a borderline one But I do feel good with the clan hand under six and a half at plus 102 and I do feel good about carasco Under four and a half at plus 112 So hopefully gives you good enough platter of stuff to target for tonight across money lines and strike Strikeout props for this robust Friday slate That is all that we have here for today on covering the spread once again next week only the podcast version of the show will be up So search for covering the spread wherever you get your podcast subscribe there If you like what you hear leave us a five start rating on apple podcast and on spotify as well Thank you in advance to Austin Swain filling it from you here and so I'm back Yeah for filling in over on the solo shot if you got questions for me. I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s I admittedly will not be checking twitter very often during the move, but hey, you know whatever feel free I'll invite you back to you eventually But just will be a little bit m i a so Carrying boxes and a lot of stuff for the next couple of days But regardless make sure you check out the covering the spread podcast feed and more for good stuff next week as well if you want some thoughts on formula one in Austria or nascar in chicago did talk about that on yesterday's show as well to also talk free agency with austin swain there So find that over in the covering the spread podcast feed the fandal youtube page and on fandal tv Plus one wish you all a happy 4th of july in advance. Have a fantastic weekend Enjoy next week as well and i'll talk to you on the monday of the mlb all star break Have a fantastic time and good luck with your bets until that this has been covering the spread right here on the Fanduel podcast network