 Okay, very good morning to you. Hope you're doing well. It is Wednesday 26th of August and before I begin One thing I just want to mention and I will put the link into the description of this video is a new blog from Alex Clark On the Amplify trading team. He's one of our traders and senior mentors And he's written an excellent piece to get you prepared for the Jackson Hole symposium and Powell's Really important speech that he's going to deliver tomorrow afternoon. So do check that out It's been tweeted from himself. I've shared it. It's been shared from the Amplify trading account as well Definitely worth a five-minute read just to get you prepared with just generally the Breaking down making a little bit more digestible how Federal Reserve monetary policy works But more importantly giving you an idea about how asset prices across assets might react to Powell's speech tomorrow It's a really great piece. Do check that out I know also if I could kindly ask if you're new to the channel Don't forget to like and subscribe new content coming every day of the week And actually I've got a special guest who's going to join me to talk a little bit about options trading Get a lot of questions about that So I thought I'd get an expert on who's a former head of a desk at a big US Bank And he's going to join me and for an interview with a video. I'm going to release on Saturday So hopefully you'll enjoy that as well, but let's go straight into things and what's been going on So overall, I would say there is a reflection of relative calm It fills to me almost like the market is waiting for drone power speech if I'm quite honest Yes, there has been some movement, but overall in the currencies Pretty quiet oil's a little higher or just holding on to some of the gains that we've seen yesterday as Hurricane Laura is set to Cause quite a large degree of disruption as it anticipated to make landfall and intensify going forward Inequity markets, we did have a bit of a mixed performance on Wall Street And fairly quiet overnight in Asia the Nasdaq outperformed again Which probably comes as little surprise these days Facebook shares with the standout there up about three and a half percent Anything really that was notable for them yesterday was a broker upgrade coming out of UBS on their price target But I do think that actually that's quite a common theme we've been seeing with these Mega cap tech stocks. Everyone's kind of asking the question You know have they risen too fast too quickly We're too overstretched But all these banks keep coming out like what we saw for apple just the other day Morgan Stanley's British base case looking for near 40 percent further gains on top of where we closed At the end of last week and they're not the first there's been goldman's there's been bank of america all coming out with some real clear Cases for Quite extreme further upside for a number of these stocks And as we know given the composition now how large that they are You can drag the whole market up again to to further more elevated levels Interestingly from a stocks perspective You know remember yesterday we were looking at the Nasdaq the sell-off at the open the recovering the afternoon Exactly the same as the S&P yesterday Sell off at the open recovering the afternoon You know this market at the moment just doesn't want to go down It doesn't matter if we get the odd piece of negative data Say us consumer confidence comes out in the end People are just looking to reestablish long positions lower down and if the market gives that opportunity From a technical point of view I was talking about this with sam with some of our new traders who've started our advance Training program this week and the discussion was not about short here Feeling that that move yesterday was a little bit overdone through the asian session But it was for okay when it comes back down We're going to look to get long again And ultimately a nice level around that 34 24 paid off That was that previous high low support a little bit choppy around that area And then a nice response started to come through as after europe left the market And we finished pretty much scratch on the session eradicating that entire loss So yeah, there's familiar patterns here being seen in us equities and I really do think A lot of this week hinges on what pal says and interestingly from an asset multi asset point of view One thing is currencies as I said, I think are relatively quiet at this point So I'd be a little bit more conservative perhaps and how you should tackle those today unless there is anything unexpected that develops So I think looking at relative ranges So if I was looking at euro here on the upside 180 on the downside then 118 kind of handle 1808 would probably be what I'd watch And then elsewhere in the gold market and then this falls then in in themes with the US yields at the moment. We're just seeing a little bit of downside pressure And we've kind of we have formed a kind of relative range But we seem to be just gravitating towards that the bottom side of that range And around 1999 put us it puts us back down to where we were testing yesterday afternoon That's also on the daily pivots the s1 and also close proximity to the low on the 21st and on the 12th as you can see Any breakdown of these levels then does get quite interesting. You've got the 1900 dollar handle and then you've got that initial Gold route low that we printed Through early part of august, which was around 1875 But interestingly with gold edging a little lower there T-notes have also been doing so see yields have just been edging up ever so slightly and if you look at this on a daily It puts into context that was that Kind of yield real yield increase momentarily that caused a bit of a shock and there was that gold repricing in the market in early august We then had quite a severe bounce But we have started to trend a little lower again in the last couple of sessions in the us 10 year And as you can see we had a pretty sharp bounce that were seen in in yesterday's session Rejection almost of that which does coincide with that 139 handle that 139 handle has been pretty solid before Exing out the break that we had back on the 12th and the 13th There was also a good level of support back on the 13th of july and of course it's that 100 dma that red line there as well so Let's keeping an eye there It does feel like it's lining up though that And as per what alex says in his his written article that if powell if we get a basically a repeat of the recent FMC minutes and basically powell fails to deliver on a fairly Hungry market for more dovish signals in the form of more concrete Conformation of average inflation targeting and then enhanced forward guidance in that respect But should be more erring on more dovish developments or tweaks to policy Failure for that to materialize or then yours are going to Going to pop higher that t-note level could come under threat again and gold You'd expect to come under some pressure and obviously technically sitting around these key levels of support if they get breached We could see some really strong moves on the back of that speech so I definitely do think it's uh It's weight in c mode as far as today is concerned and I don't I do think that that should be Factored into your approach and you're how ambitious any targets for any subsequent trades that get taken today Because people might tend to sit on their hands the latter we get into the day barring anything as I said Unexpecting developing One chart you can see here though is crude oil Has it was pretty choppy yesterday But overall did move higher and if again we look on the daily chart Just to encapsulate a couple of these longer term levels. We've been looking at for a while this then looks at the The period but we were trading in early march before we had that kind of fateful failure of that opent meeting And then the price war outbreak between saudi and russia So we're right back up there again. We briefly got up there and we're rejected back in early august around the fifth of august We're right back there at 43 32 here now in the futures and looking at on the daily chart And so with that little breakout to the upside yesterday We've got above and kind of near-term range that's held through much of the period of august Puts us back at those july highs and we're right back up to the higher Of where we're trading on the second on that support point in the second of march So quite interesting here from a technical perspective for oil Threatening potential then further moves to the upside Now to get you up to speed with laura what is going on? So it's not a case of marco now It's all over to laura And it threatens the u.s. With with basically a major disaster what the national hurricane has said Is that it could well see a storm surge Causing significant inland damage of up to a degree of 30 miles As you can see by the national hurricanes projected wind speed probabilities. So if I look at this here A couple of points to be aware of then so geographically the surge Will large and dangerous waves producing potentially catastrophic damage from san luis pass texas to the mouth of mississippi river Including areas inside the port of ather hurricane flood protection system It could go 30 miles inland hurricane force winds are expected wednesday night and so Yeah, potentially very disruptive here and what that has already led to of course is that as of yesterday upstream operators have shut in about 1.558 million brows per day of oil that equates to around 84.3 of production from a gas A natural gas perspective. It's about 60.94 of offshore production that's being closed some of the u.s Largest refineries are winding down obviously in advance of this laura Actually, if I put my cursor here is right down here at the bottom So this is where it's anticipated to be in the u.s. Time by wednesday evening and then thursday morning We're hitting right in the epicenter of what are the biggest most major oil refining I guess infrastructure of this particular area in the Gulf of mexico So as you can see here refineries facing closure or reduced runs poor arthur mativa poor arthur total poor arthur valero lake charles sipco flip 66 to give you an idea Mativa's Capacity is about six hundred and thirty thousand miles per day Exxon mobiles beumont is three hundred sixty six thousand total poor arthur 225 and a half thousand philip 66 lake charles 250,000 so you know these are significant and hence the reason why you've had a bit of a Movement in oil yesterday and it definitely remains one to watch and again normally whether patterns get priced in pretty early With a kind of a six to ten day lead up given that we can monitor and track these developing weather systems in the atlantic However, I guess in the case of what's happened here with laura is that it's continued to intensify And therefore all the more disruptive it could potentially be The other thing is the republican convention continues It was kind of like the trump family show Yesterday milania coming out and talking a little bit more of an alternate tone to the kind of more assertive husband She was talking about some of the other issues at large namely social issues ongoing in the u.s but one of the things that's come out of this and No doubt again timing politically It looks a little bit like it's being held back for this specific moment So the trump administration according to politico is said to be According to sources weighing accusing china of genocide over ethnic muslim minorities that issue again of human rights In the western side of china that's been an issue Brought to light over the last 12 18 months Now again, I think this type of information comes out how I interpret this it comes out at a politically sensitive moment where the republican party i.e trump can leverage this as part of the kind of unofficial communication so I guess tactfully he looks being very aggressive to china But underlying this of course is still the same fact That china is living up to its side of the bargain already kutlo Like the hyzer they were all speaking yesterday Obviously china talk up the market in the case of kutlo as much as possible Looking over and beyond that with the covid impact But also commenting about the fact that that china are accelerating their importing of us goods in line with the phase one trade deal And this has come out this morning from bloomberg again citing people from limited matter So sources that china is reportedly expecting a record amount of us soybean purchases this year uh, so again, I think what you're going to hear from trump is an over-exaggerated kind of Heat putting on the weight of china in order to politically just make the point To galvanize his base, but ultimately i don't see any real tangible reaction from china on the back of that Because china are fully aware that he's just saying it because of what's going on specifically with that convention happening All right, quick look at the calendar. What have we got for the day ahead? It's very quiet actually in terms of the uk european morning On that note probably one of the the main things i'm quite interested to hear is we've got bank of england governor Bailey speaking on friday that coming up as a bit of a prelude to that event We do have bank of england's chief economist andy helden now He's not speaking till 5 p.m. Actually this evening london time and he's speaking at an international culture Summit so it is off topic. However, a lot of people are awaiting His speech in order to see whether he gives away any more insight as to what the bank of england are thinking They've kind of almost discounted negative rates for the time being however markets have kind of ignored that and we're still a little bit further out Pricing in the potential of negative rates in the uk. So i'm just interested to see whether he gives any further policy kind of hints on forward guidance as to potentially then Increasing qe or any other forms that they might take He does tend to be or has been Happy to be an outlier remember not the last meeting the meeting before he was against Expanding quantitative easing. So he was the one dissenter of the group in the npc So I think of all the people that could potentially say something a bit more interesting Perhaps how dang these your guys so look out for that at 5 p.m. Be aware of that if you're in any sterling FX position Otherwise the afternoon we got dribble goods coming out of the u.s. You get to all different tree numbers Following on from the api's last night. So i'll update you on those closer to what the time so we can take a look at And then from a supply side in fixed income another german auction And then floating rate nor auction coming out the us in a two-year and 51 billion dollars in a five-year no auction So obviously lots of supply coming the way of the us as well and perhaps Again a little bit of short-setting materializing in the treasury market to take on this new supply Could also be a weighing factor on why prices have been declining of late Um, yeah, that is it. So remember to um Subscribe to the channel if you don't already as I said got a really interesting video coming out on saturday about options Uh, and so hopefully that'll be something new for you to digest and and any questions on the briefing just delivered Just feel free to leave a comment and I wish you a good day ahead. See you same time tomorrow. Thanks very much