 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good evening everybody. Welcome to another edition of the AccessToTrader.com Nightly Wrap-Up Show. Hope everybody is doing well. Hope you had a great weekend. Hope everybody had a good trading day. Again, before we begin, please like, share, subscribe, and all that good stuff that helps us push the message for unbiased technical analysis. Hopefully you guys can develop in a very good, organic, technical way, and we get some eyeballs that helps everybody else. So thank you very much again for all your support. So, interesting day. I think that's the best way of saying it. I think it was a very, very interesting day. If you watched the weekend update, you know, I had a pretty good game plan, very, very aggressive open today. First two, three hours, very, very aggressive, and then slowly but surely the market kind of lost a little bit steam. We'll get to that in a second. But if you guys watched the weekend video, we talked about this highest formation here in this whole channel, right? This whole channel here, we broke above the 299, and the whole game plan was if the queues can start reclaiming the 300 level, I think there's a shell. We have another day of rally. And if you look at the tape, that's exactly what happened. I mean, you had this pre-market, you know, you had the pre-market pretty much flat open. If you looked at all the indexes this morning, you had the S&P, the Dow, the NASDAQ, you know, pretty much unchanged. You had a little bit up a little bit, down a little bit, pre-market. But we knew that if we can just reclaim and confirm Friday's channels basically above this 300 area that we talked about in the video, there's a shot we can start, you know, moving along, right? Moving to the upside. And that's exactly what it did. I mean, the Bulls did an absolute phenomenal job this morning. Again, one of the more, definitely one of the more aggressive opens I can remember in the last couple of weeks. We got that pretty aggressive move. So it woke up flat. We got above Friday's channels and we just started pumping, like really, really pumping. Ultimately, we went from 300 to 303, 30360's, a really, really big move. And the question was, well, what was going to happen next, right? Now, obviously, after pushing to supply, and you can see this upper bologna band, the question was, well, what are we going to have to expect from the next two days? If you don't know the next two days, you have Chairman Powell, he is testimony, testimony for the next couple of days, Tuesday into Wednesday. And the question was, well, was the market going to be a little erratic prior to his testimony tomorrow? And obviously, the first inclination was, of course, I think tomorrow you'll probably have a little bit of whipsaw. We just didn't think the whipsaw was going to come right after this really aggressive. And look at these two volume bars on the cues and today. This is a massive move from 303 to nearly, from 300 to nearly 304. And then slowly, but surely, we started dying out. I mean, slowly, I mean, really, really slowly. It first started coming into a nice little base, came back, bounced a little bit, and then came back into another little base and bounced a little bit. And the next thing you know, we started getting very, very heavy and kind of floated back into this rising support. Granted, this is still the highest close in this whole formation. But the problem is going into tomorrow's session, as you can see here, right? This is an inverted hammer. What does that mean? Well, take a look, right? Here was an inverted hammer. Look what happened the next day. Here was an inverted hammer. We gap down to the next support, right? And the fact that we have, in fact, we have Powell's testimony tomorrow, you know, I thought going into tomorrow's session before we even kind of almost gave back the whole day's worth of gains, I thought going into tomorrow's session, we were already going to have a really whip-saw day. And I was already talking about in the webinar about kind of, you know, scaling back your expectations, maybe scaling back your activity levels for tomorrow. Because again, one word here, one word there, your position, whether it's long or short, is probably going to get whipped out. So we got a little bit of an aggressive pull after lunch. You know, by after lunch, we know we're already, you know, done 95%, 98% of our day anyway. Again, I trade primarily, you know, 95% of my day, probably 99% of my day up to about 1 o'clock or so. If I have a runner, that's fine. If I get stopped out, that's fine. But it's very rare unless the market is really trending where there's a massive expansion day, like we had Friday into the close, that we start putting on positions in the afternoon for tomorrow's session. Because again, what usually happens is you get expansion channels in the morning. That's where new traders are chasing, everybody's chasing, everybody's pounding on their chest. Is it Monday yet? Is it Tuesday yet? All that stuff. They also dies out in the first 10 minutes of the day when they realize they're doing exactly the same thing. They got into trouble in the first place. And the next thing you know, the afternoon comes and the channels start contracting. This is where you start seeing a lot of accumulation positioning for the next day, whether somebody's long, short or indifferent. So you start seeing channels always kind of die. But today the price action died and the price per share declined as well. So it's been a very, very odd day for tomorrow. Again, I believe the testimony starts, I think it's a 10 o'clock, it could be wrong. But the problem is, right, even though this is the highest close in this whole formation, we did put in this inverted hammer. Again, this is a sell signal. This is not a buy signal. Obviously anything could happen tomorrow, right? So this guy turns around and says, hey, we have a definitive plan for the remainder of 2013-2014. The market just explodes right back. He could also turn around and say, well, we just assessed the situation. We're assessing the situation and keeping track of inflation and all that stuff. And this thing could be going on for the next two to four years. We've heard all this. We heard this back and forth rhetoric now for years and years and years. And now that we're kind of looking for that final definitive answer, what is this inflation game finally going to stall a halt or just be done with? We're not going to get it, right? We're not going to get it in the markets. It's going to be very erratic in the markets. It's going to be moving up and down in the next couple of days. And I think some traders got nervous today. They started pairing out their positions, especially after a pretty big rally in the last three days. I think this was one of those situations. The bulls won the morning. The bears won the afternoon. Now we're kind of dealt the neutral expecting some sort of clues in the next couple of days. So I do believe if you're an aggressive trader, try to scale down tomorrow just because, again, one word from this guy could be ultimate violence. And again, the point of trading is you want your date to be very predictable, right? Based on research, you don't want to run into the violence. Again, all it takes is one word and this market could go one way or another very aggressively. So look, a case in point, look what Bostic did on Thursday. Again, this guy is not even a voting member. And look what his words did. It sparked a massive three-day run for the bulls. So look, I think tomorrow you've got to be very cautious. Ironically, I mean, it's not that I'm sell-by since tomorrow. I just can't find any lawns just because we have this big inverting hammer. So yeah, I mean, I have like four or five ideas that I like to the short side tomorrow. But it doesn't mean I'm sell-by. It's just if those stocks confirm and this inverted hammer gets a day two, just the way we add here and just the way we add here, we could get some opportunities to the downside. But again, best case scenario, we kind of tread water, right? We kind of tread water, maybe try to, I don't want to say, try to brush these next two days to the side, but try to trade for some cash flow. There's definitely some charts that I'm watching that look interesting. Marvel, again, maybe you can confirm some more, maybe it doesn't. Marvel got hit on earnings, kind of rebounded. But if Marvel loses the 50-day moving average, maybe it starts the next leg up. I've been in this lift for like a week, right? This has been the longest swing ever to the downside, obviously. Shorted this thing a week ago, went down to 950s, rallied back. It got rejected up to 10. It's starting to roll over. I was maybe left to finally get below this 950s, start this next leg down. But again, it's something I'm managing. I'm probably going to be in this thing for years, it feels that way. Netflix, I had a good two-day run. Now it's kind of a fucking the bottom channel here again. There's some ideas that I'm just kind of watching for tomorrow. And Tesla, look at Tesla. Here's something interesting. Before the market even reversed, Tesla did nothing. Tesla actually got weaker and weaker and weaker. It just kind of went sideways a little bit for the rest of the day. Let's keep an eye on Tesla's wall for tomorrow. If this thing could lose the bottom of the channel here, maybe this thing starts getting hit. So I don't have a lot of expectations tomorrow. And I've always said and I've always reiterated, always play the premium hand. If you're getting dealt, if you know you're getting possibly dealt a 4-9 offsuit, well, why go all in, right? There's always going to be a better hand, there's always going to be a better premium hand on deck. But I think, look, I think that there's definitely some... I think there's some definitely names we could watch for tomorrow, some channels to the downside. I think we could take advantage of it. But I think at the end of the day, the Powell testimony needs to be kind of pushed to the side. He's testifying tomorrow and Wednesday. It's a two-day meeting, so you're going to have a lot of bursts with the cues, a lot of sell-offs with the cues. The most important thing is just understand the dangers that you are about to enter those murky waters for the next two days and just kind of adjust your tier size obviously down and just tone down your expectations. So let's talk about today's day. I mean, incredibly aggressive action here at the Open. Again, you would have never known in a million years you would have never know that the market was barely up today. It was super, duper aggressive. Everything just going absolutely nuts. I mean, the stocks are confirmed. The majority went absolutely nuts. It was a really, really strong session. The next thing you know, everything just died. So let's talk about it. TTD 5780 rejected three times needs to build. Not a huge move, but again, nothing, not every trade needs to be huge. So we talked about this on the weekend update. You see it three times, got rejected 5780. 5780 was the high from February 22nd. 5780 was the high of February 23rd. 5780 was the high from Friday. Finally got above 5780. Went up about a dollar and then kind of reversed like everything else. IQ got upgraded and never confirmed $8. Amazon 95, it opened up 95. Then it confirmed the pre-market high of 9535 needs to confirm. Again, everything had a really nice spike here until everything got rejected later. So it took out that 95 area, traded up to 9650s. And then again, reversed just like everything else. AMAT exploded right off the open. 1960 rejected three times needs to build. I believe we covered AMAT on the weekend video as well. It took out this whole 1960, traded all the way up to the 2160s. Very, very quickly before we got stuffed on supply. Again, another example of an inverted hammer. AMAT, I didn't trade any AMAT. 8240s needs to confirm pre-market channel. Actually it's not AMAT, AMD. I think AMD went up like a dollar and a half, nothing big. So it took out this whole channel here. Went to 8320s, went up like a dollar and change. Nothing big there but came back down. NVIDIA was really, really strong. So NVIDIA broke out on Friday. If you guys remember off this 234, 235 level, closed right at the high of the day. 239 rejected three times needs to confirm. Nice beautiful move, beautiful, beautiful move on NVIDIA. Went to 42 and change before reversed down. And Microsoft, Microsoft is sweet today, really nice. 257 needs to build the pre-market highs. It's also the 223 highs. So 257, Microsoft traded into the 260s. Again here, big, big, beautiful move here. Traded to this 260s before reversed down. Bulls, you know, bulls, how did it go on today? They did in the first three hours and then next thing you know, and then next thing you know, gravity kicked in, people got worried, pal was on deck. The jitter is the unknown. And the last thing the market wants is always the unknown because that's when the things get dicey, especially when you throw in a wrench, like a pal wrench. So the numbers that we want to pay attention to on the cues, obviously this 299 level, right? This is where the whole area of aggression started from. So as long as the bulls continue to hold on to that 299 level on the close, I think they're fine. Tomorrow's obviously the first test of his first day of testimony. Obviously any close below the 20 day moving average of 298. Again, things start getting a little dicey for the bulls after this pretty, pretty aggressive three-day run. When you look at the SPYs, kind of the same thing. You had this big, big rally, broke the downtrend here. You know, they have to defend this 402 level, right? That's the 20 day. Again, if the bulls don't defend this 402 level on the SPYs, you're going to have a problem. And the IWM, not that this one really, really matters, but the IWM today failed even to take out Friday's channel. So this is the first one that didn't even confirm their previous days high. And now it's stuck back into this whole channel that has been trapped for two weeks. So again, you had an incredibly aggressive morning. Great job for all you guys who participated, that came in long, all that good stuff. But more important now is it's over, right? It's over. And just like the way we talk about when you have a bad day and everybody has bad days, everybody has horrible days, everybody has good days, everybody has great days. But guess what? Those days are over, right? It's the past. We don't live there anymore. Tomorrow it's only as good as the next day starting pitcher. Again, I've always said this. One day you could have, you know, you could have Verlander in his prime, going, you know, eight innings, striking out 14 and giving up no runs. And then the next day, the fifth starting gives up 11 runs and ending the third. Again, every day is its own different story. And again, this is why the greatest reality television show is not on TV. Guys, stay blessed, everybody. Have a great day. And I will see you to all tomorrow. Take care.