 Think about this. We are below. This is day two below this whole trend line here. You guys notice. Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey, guys. Good evening, everybody. Welcome to another edition of the AccessaTrader.com Nightly Rapid Show. Happy Monday. Happy rainy Monday here in New Jersey. Hope everybody is doing well. So let's talk about the tape. So today, they labeled the sell-off today, right? As the day that social media went dark, or down detect their Facebook, Instagram, Snapchat, Tinder, dog shit, cat shit, anything under the sun and how to do anything with .com. Some Zoom users had some problems. Tinder had some problems. Verizon, Comcast. You could blame, you could write a narrative until the house falls apart. You could write a narrative to make you feel better. The reality is very simple. We talked about this all of last week. We were sell biased because the cues, right? The cues lost the 50-day moving average. And for four, five, six consecutive days, they were putting in lower highs, lower lows, and kept on getting rejected off the five-day moving average. If you see this orange line here, it's the five days. So one, two, three, four, five, six days in a row rejected off those areas. So the idea that the media is going to run with the idea that, hey, we went down because everything under the sun on social media wasn't working, OK, if that makes you feel better. But the reality is the longer the base below the 50-day moving average, the higher probability it was going to get down to the next demand zone, which was that 256, 257. And we were pretty much looking at a scenario of retesting Friday's lows. And that was kind of a big deal. And not only did we test Friday's lows, we closed below it. If you guys remember last week's video, any close below that 257, 256 level was kind of going to be a big deal. And then we were looking basically at a scenario of the next move to 349, maybe 347 and change on the queues. And if you look at the SPY, kind of the same thing. We're one, two, three, four, five, six days in a row below the 50-day moving average. And this is the first close below this whole channel here. And if we start confirming tomorrow as well, you should see a move somewhere right here around this 422, 423 level, another five points in the SPY. So the idea that you're turning around and trying to compensate the selling with some sort of reason, if it makes you feel better, right? Again, I think traders these days are, or at least experienced traders these days, they're a lot smarter based on their past experiences. You don't need a pacifier to make yourself feel better. You don't need a band-aid to kind of cover up the wounds. You have to kind of face the market with the reality and trade both sides of the market. The idea that a trader based on this action, based on this technical action, can go out and tonight do their chart work and start looking for breakouts is on a different planet. And the most important part is when you're looking in the face of a channel that is underneath supply, there is no such thing as breakouts. I don't care how good the news is on your stock. It will get sold. It's just the reality. Nobody's going to sit there trying to get a diamond in the rough in a C in a field worth of manure. It's just not worth it. And that's exactly what the market's doing right now. It's being sold, it's being sold aggressively. You've got a second name. You have a second name in China, a little bit less of a reputation than Evergrande. Again, had the same type of issue, with a potential default. And again, it's one of those scenarios that shoot first, ask questions later. A lot of tech got sold, a lot of tech got sold today incredibly aggressively. And when you look at a scenario, just on a 60 minute scenario of what we saw today, right off the word go, these are aggressive pandas. This isn't a mom and pop from Wichita, Kansas getting out of there three shares of Amazon. When you look at Facebook, you could say what you want today. Well, Facebook was the leader of everything going down, right? If it makes you feel better, right? This is institutional money outflow coming out of these names. And the next key right now is you have to start looking at big aggressive option flow in the downside direction. This is just the reality. We didn't get that much today, or at least I didn't see that much today. I saw it in a certain names. We'll get to that in a second. But once you start seeing deep out of the money put by and coming in for near term expiration, that's when you're going to know there is, I don't want to use the word stampede out the door, but that's what you're going to really realize when institutional money starts pouring the outflow. And if you kind of flip that around, isn't that exactly what we talk about when we talk about institutional money flow betting out of the money calls or near term expiration for the stock market to go higher? So again, that's something to definitely watch for tomorrow. There is a name. I'll give you a perfect example. There is a name that I started watching in the afternoon. Again, maybe a lot of you guys trade square. This is definitely one of the names that I watch. And today was the first time I saw a seven figure buyer. A seven figure. I put up premium the October 15, 210 puts. I also saw a pretty decent size buyer coming in in November 200 puts. That's exactly what we're looking for. I want to look for names that are starting to break down. You can see this is the first close below all of the support here. So if you start seeing names that you're trading or at least you're holding or watching whatever the case may be, once you start seeing those deep out of the money near term expiration coming in on the buy side of the puts, you're going to know the institutional money flow now is on the wrong side of the ledger. If you're a perma bear, assuming a perma bull and now you have to take necessary steps either if you're an investor to kind of slide along to kind of get out of the way or if you're a trader, you start looking at price action. Price action that you could take advantage of. The same way stocks take out supply and go higher. Stocks take out demand and go lower. And we've been saying this now for five days in a row. The longer we build below the 50 day moving average the higher probability the next area of support is going to come. So is it possible we have a dead cat? Of course, dead cat bounces exactly what we talked about on the weekend update that happened on Friday. You're going to have a deep dead cat bounce day. It's not the bottom of the market. It's not for you to run out and say you don't have an arrogance point of view and say the bear's never learned, ha ha, no, no. This is a dead cat bounces. They get rejected around the five day moving average. And the more opportunities for them putting in lower highs, continued lower highs and get comfortable below the five day moving average. So that's the shortest term sentiment. That is the area that you really have to pay attention to because if more names start building and building and building and bears to take control of the 50 day moving average, then you're going to have a lot of cases like we saw today. Again, these are violin candles guys, right? These are violin, this is only two candles of the day. These are violin candles, right? When you look at Facebook, look at these, these are violin, violin candles. When you look at Roku today, right off the word go. This is violence. This isn't, you know, this isn't orderly. Let me get out of the way. Let's take some profits or protect our capital. People want out, right? This is institutional money flow. People want out. So you have to be very, very conscious of this. And the next big area of concentration if you are a more of a dynamic bull, right? You have to start looking at the weekly, right? Weekly support here, right? We're below, think about this. We are below. This is day two below this whole trend line here. If you guys notice what the difference between today's clothes and the day two clothes on this rising channel, the day two clothes reclaim this whole channel, right? The day two clothes reclaim this whole channel. This is the first day on the weekly chart that you can turn around and actually point to and say, well, wait a minute. This is the first day that we close below the channel. They couldn't reclaim back this whole rising weekly wedge. And now this is where your potential hard landing is off this 333 level. Again, is this the end of the world? Absolutely not. The market's been on a tremendous, tremendous run. This is not a video to get you nervous. This is not a video to put fit. There's no such thing as fear. Stocks go up, stocks go down. As the way we buy stocks is the way we short stocks. There's absolutely no difference. The only difference on the short side is you're going to have a times wider spreads. You're going to have a lot more illiquidity because there's less market participants on the downside than there is to the upside. To the upside, everybody wants in at one time. Retail wants in, institutional wants in, everybody wants in. To the downside, it's a little bit different. It doesn't go down in a straight line. There is no panic selling. There's days that it feels like, hey, bears got trapped, but they didn't get trapped. Again, respect the levels. The longer now we start building below this long, long wedge that we haven't been below since, what's this day here? April, let's see here, January, February, March, April. April, 2020. This is the last time we were below this whole rising wedge. And the longer we build the base below this whole rising weekly wedge, the higher probability it's going to start testing a lot lower at these levels over time. And again, if you believe in the theory of demand of the man, then we're staring at this 349, 347 level as a potential next soft landing spot. So the idea that if you are only exposure, unfortunately to a lot of new traders is social media. When you see some 22 year old kid, and again, nope, again, I would switch places on any 22 year old kid. I'm 47, I'd gladly give you every worldly possession I have to be 22 years old again. But when again, when you're trading in the market, your experience is 18 months and you're talking about buy the dip. Well, no, you buy the dip, right? You buy the dip. Again, you don't even understand what you're asking for. Buy the dip only works in a rabid bull market. Buy the dip works only when stocks are coming off the highs that are testing rising, rising intermediate levels. When stocks are below supply, the last thing you wanna do is buy the dip. Again, if you're turning around and say, look, I love Amazon, I think it's gonna go to 5,000, right? Like I say all the time that we've been talking about Amazon, the swing potential of Amazon ever since it broke the 3290, I agree. I think Amazon in the next 5, 10 years will be at 5,000, but it won't be at 5,000 tomorrow. And that's exactly what you have to look at, you have to be mature enough. You have to be understanding about. You have to be an adult to understand stocks go down. It's nothing personal. Nobody's trying to make you feel bad. Nobody's trying to say bad words about your stocks. They're stocks. They're gonna go up, they're gonna go down. When stocks take out supply and buyers clean up sellers, stocks go higher. When stocks go below demand, they start building below demand, stocks go lower. And that's exactly what you're seeing today. And oh, by the way, we still have a whole bunch of slew of news that is over our heads. We saw the debt ceiling. We still have this Evergrande. We still have this new company in China that just kind of raised his hand and say, hey, by the way, I'm having a problem making some payments as well. We have the tapering thing on the table. So the most important part is again, if you're a newer trader, the last thing you wanna do is quote unquote, look for breakouts, which are not there. And the most important part is the last thing, last thing, last thing you wanna do is start swinging anything, especially when the predominantly majority of the stocks are below the daily and the weekly supply. And this is the first thing that I noticed today when I started charting macro. Again, this is the first close on the queues below this weekly trend line since January, February, March, since April of 2020. Again, you could take that information any way you want. Again, I'm just an idiot. I've been doing this for 22 years other than that. I really don't know anything like anybody else. So it's very, very important to understand the dynamics of the market and all jokes aside, stay safe, right? Stay safe. If it's not your comfort level, if it's not your sweet spot of kind of feel your process kind of getting point A to point B. Again, it's nothing wrong with sitting out, learn to live another day. And the most important part is use this opportunity to kind of store this experience in your mental Rolodex. So if this does apply a year from now, two years from now, five years from now, you've already went through it. And the most important part is you know how to navigate with safety, with calmness, with composure, the most important like an adult. So let's talk about today's action. Again, you had some names that completely got imploded. My plan today was kind of have an open mind, both sides of the market. I put some longs on, I put some shorts on. I wanted to make sure that everything was covered, that we weren't caught with our pants below our ankles. And that's the whole point. And you started seeing slowly but surely pre-market, face with kind of nasty candle. And then it came to a point that really took down pretty much everything else. So let's talk about this. My plan again, for some reason, they're holding up the stock is for some reason, God knows why they're holding up the stock, held 73 times, they continue to hold 70. For some reason, this damn thing just doesn't want to break. I was going, I was watching through the upside, obviously didn't come close to confirming. There was actually a nice pop on Netflix, right? 619 needs to build and obviously it reversed later. But Netflix had a really nice pop at the open here. So here was Netflix, it took out the 619, really put up a nice, put up a $7 candle here, pretty aggressively before it got rejected, nice move there. I was also watching CRM obviously never got close to 277, DDOG never got close to 145, DOCN never got close to 82. So as you can imagine, all the names to the downside today were very, very aggressive. Facebook just got absolutely annihilated. 338 held three times if it builds below can flush. I would have to say builds below can flush is a pretty much an understatement. So here was the 338, 338, 338, 338. And here is the 338 pre-market, this whole channel here, and just absolutely got annihilated, just literally annihilated. And here is I think one of the more important parts here of the day. And this is kind of what we talk about, the retail mindset. And we talked about this 799 was last week's high. I go FOMO retail will go all in at this level at $800. We all know what happens next, right? When everybody goes in at the same side at the same time, it's gonna get absolutely just destroyed, right? If you look at what happened to Tesla today, it got absolutely destroyed. There was a couple of pivots here for the experienced traders in the live webinar and there was a nice little dip, not a great dip, but a nice little dip here. That's 797 opening range high. Went to that 803, 805 level. And then if you didn't make any sales and you didn't know the supply zone was there, it just got absolutely annihilated. Again, guys, be careful of social media. Everybody, look, just trust me. Be careful of social media. All you need to know is exactly what's in front of you. Your chart is the same information that a trader for 30 years gets, that it's a trader that gets for experience level of 30 weeks. What you do with that information is up to you. But again, when retail piles on at the same time at the same price, usually nothing good is going to come out of it. Netflix, again, take on a way up to $7 candle there. Amazon beautiful move here, $32, $33. Here is the macro break, $32.89 from Friday, $32.33 next support. And hold on to old runners. Amazon just got destroyed, just absolutely destroyed. It took out the previous channel. It traded down to $32.33. And then just, oh, by the way, put up another $70 candle, excuse me, $60 candle to the downside. Just a huge, huge move there. This is one of the remounts I took, $7.90. Went to $7.93 and just the futures were just too, just too weak, just absolutely too weak and everything got sold off. So going into tomorrow, again, if we get a gap up, we'll be, you know, we'll kind of be a blessing because again, what we're looking for is if the futures gap up and these stocks gap up into supply, supply will probably get rejected. And I am definitely looking, you know, any channels today to confirm, I'm looking for a day two selling pressure. Again, is it possible we have a dead cat bounce tomorrow? Look, everything's possible. Everything's on the table. So you have to make sure you plan ahead for everything. Obviously there are no daily chart breakouts. They're just dead cat bounces and sneaky channels. So again, guys, be careful. This is a great learning process for a lot of new traders, especially that started during the high of, you know, the high of the whole rabid bull market. Again, I know it doesn't feel like now, but this is the best thing that could possibly happen in your development. You're not even, you know, you're not hearing about it, right? Of past events you're living in it. And this eventually is going to pay off with a lot of discipline, lack of FOMO and every aspect that you need to be a calm, rational adult trader. Guys, have a great night everybody and I will see you all tomorrow. Take care.