 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network Week number three in the NFL is not one that features a bunch of high-level matches between top-level teams But there are a lot of fun situations for player props where we've got some uncertainty different backfields sometimes for bummer reasons But like uncertainty there potentially some Openness fluidity in the player prop market We're gonna bring that down for today by talking to JJ Zacharyson Picking his brain on week three player props talking to him about his process for betting touchdowns because he has been on a Fantastic run there to open this year also talking later on with Rob Freeman talking strikeout props there And then I'll wrap things up by talking NASCAR in Texas welcome on into covering the spread That's right here on the Fandall podcast network. My name is Jim Sonnis I am a managing editor of digital media for Fandall research joined here as mentioned by JJ Zacharyson Check him out on Twitter at late round QB You can find his work at late round comm and on the late round fantasy football podcast JJ We are on to week number three. How you doing today? Doing alright, you know face a little bit too much Christian McCaffrey in my season-long leagues last night I just I couldn't get enough early round picks like just just luck of the draw right in my league So I don't have enough Christian McCaffrey because of that And so last night of course was the was the week that I ended up facing him a whole lot I guess could have been worse, but that's San Francisco offense is humming man. They're looking good I feel like the best situation to be in is where you have Brock Purdy on your dynasty teams Where you watch him and you realize he's flawed as a player He's got some issues, but it doesn't matter because he still winds up being very efficient and Kyle Shanahan seems to like him a lot So like I've honestly had a lot of fun watching last night's game as a result It's kind of like comical like the fact that like there are some really erratic throws But then he unleashes like these like crazy pinpoint ones mixed in there And I feel like just kind of like I know that like you can have the dumb discourse on Twitter if you want But honestly, I just think it's a fun experiment. Yeah, it's super fun And look, I don't remember a quarterback in fantasy football history That has been more of a lock to score between 15 and 20 points every single week. There's no no more You're not gonna get much more. You're not gonna get any less but 15 to 20 He's locked in there as that like, you know mid-range high-end QB to every single week Yeah, it has been fun. And I hope the Purdy train keeps on rocking out there in San Francisco We're gonna dive into player props with JJ get his read on those and again later on We have the strikeout props and NASCAR as well all right here on the show But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcasts our week Three traditional market preview is already up with dr. Ed Feng joining me yesterday breaking down his thoughts on this week's biggest game So here it bets over at Fandall sportsbook and Ed and I were pretty much in lockstep on everything as far as spreads go for this week Also talked at about week four in college football where there is a banger slate You can find both those in the covering the spread podcast feed on the Fandall YouTube page and over on Fandall TV Plus on Amazon fire Apple TV Roku and fandall.com Slash watch now JJ Let's kick things off here today by patting you on the back because you have been fantastic at predicting touchdown scores so far this year three and one and touchdown bets two of the hits have been longer shots Plus three ten and tank big speed plus 360 on Jake Ferguson. So we've only talked about the process for player or touchdown props yet We talked about projecting yardage and stuff like that, but touchdowns are very different so for those who have not heard your process for that market in the past and What data are you looking at when trying to identify who may be a good bet specifically to score touchdown? Yeah, I think you got to start at the highest level first, you know volume projections are always going to be the most important thing I know that's the most important thing for yards and yardage bets But it's the same thing for touchdowns. You need to see volume to increase your chances of finding the end zone, right? Um, so then from there you can look at projected usage then, you know Close to the end zone, you know, whether it's the red zone or the green zone, which is within the 10 yard line That's what got me on for instance, Jake Ferguson last week is that in week one They clearly were using him a lot, you know close to the end zone and he he had You know really high target numbers within the 10 So you're starting at the volume side and then you're looking more at how they're using these players Close to the end zone and sort of the share of of work, you know in the red zone And then from there, too I'm also looking at regression, right because a lot of times the markets will will place these guys And give them odds that are based on what they've already done When you have to be a little bit more forward thinking and saying some guys get really unlucky scoring touchdown Some guys get lucky scoring touchdowns, you know a good example is Garrett Wilson to start the year You know last week he has a huge touchdown week one. He had that crazy touchdown We can't expect that to happen We can excuse me week in and week out with Zach Wilson under center And so his number might be a little bit more inflated than it that it probably should be And then some players who maybe are accumulating a ton of yards Are seeing a lot of work in the red zone and in the green zone, but they're not converting That kind of stuff progresses to that mean eventually So it's sort of this like three pro and a pro pro I'm looking at Overall volume and team environment too obviously goes into that But overall volume and then I'm looking at how they're being used And projected usage in the red zone and in the green zone And then you're looking at general regression because that can help you out when finding the best line Yeah, you were talking about wilson the jets implied total of this week is 17 So probably not a lot of touchdowns flowing there now I mentioned before in the lead-in that there are a lot of fluid situations for this week a lot of backfields and flux Some receiving situations as well. So when you're trying to identify Situations and flux where you may be able to find some potentially softer markets. Which situations are you zeroing in on for week three? I think there's a few Sorry a couple things you can look at here where Running back injuries are obviously an easy go to, you know You have Austin Eckler who's banged up and you know, I'd say he's iffy more likely to not go than go this weekend You know, and then you look at what happened last week with joshua kelly doesn't come through You know, especially with fantasy managers, you know, he did not have a good game But he still saw 72 of their running mac rushes He had a 66 route participation despite not seeing, you know, very good numbers through the air And so you place that then in a better game environment And then all of a sudden you can see a player like joshua kelly hitting some of his overs If a lot of the numbers are based off of what we saw last week from a result standpoint And then, you know, another backfield that I think is really interesting this week is new warlands You have jamal williams who's banged up Alvin chimera is still suspended You had tony jones last week who's hypothetically there are b4 on their roster He steps in and he you know, he has an okay enough game because he found the end zone But um, you know, he wasn't very efficient wasn't very effective I don't think tony jones is someone that's ever going to be a household name And so now you have kendre miller though who evidently was healthy enough to be able to play last week He's been practicing all this week kendre miller is someone, you know In these really ambiguous situations where there's injuries and such I'm going to lean on my talent evaluation almost above all else and to me, you know, kendre miller coming out He's not that much of a receiver or he wasn't in college So I don't know if that side of his game is going to really be there here in week three But I do think that there's a chance that we see him get 1215 rushes in this game against green bay And that can go a long way, right? So I might lay off You know any any receiving lines for for a guy like kendre might lay off any touchdown bets too because they might use Taysome hill in a really obnoxious way, but I do think from a yardage standpoint, you know, if you find the right line Um, you know, you could hit the over there because I do think he's going to see Significantly more work than tony jones just because of that talent evaluation can obviously go south But I'm going to lean on that talent evaluation And then the other thing I want to call out here is we're still working with small sample sizes And we're working in scenarios where teams having played only two games Could have faced some pretty tough competition in those two games And we don't want that to totally totally warp our minds in how those offenses are going to operate I think a perfect example of this is pittsburgh pittsburgh faced san francisco in week one They faced cleveland in week two two of the best fronts in football, right? pittsburgh's biggest weakness more than likely offensively Maybe I mean you can maybe say quarterback, but uh, you know offensive line their offensive line has been an issue for years now So they face these two fronts. Of course, they're not going to be that strong offensively They finally get a better matchup against vegas So I think it's really important to not Automatically hit those unders because the skillers offense has been so poor to start the season Look at those matchups because there have been, you know, some teams out there that have faced, you know, some easy matchups I'll get to that in a second some tough matchups Um, you got to have that context when you're when you're making these bets And that same context applies to joshua kelly who you alluded to where he goes from facing the tennessee titans Who have the best rush defensive football They're facing the vikings who invite you to run the ball against them Like that's what brian floras wants is for you to run the football against him and I think that kellen moor will be willing to do so at least that's what he showed in week one against a similar defensive Fangio, so it's a very different situation for kelly right now than it was in uh week two and kelly props are not up yet at fangirls sportsbook But I think that's one i'll be looking at pretty closely once they are posted Now let's take into some yardage props here jj looking at those. Uh, where are you seeing value across week number three? Yeah, so this one's over on fandall nico collins. Uh, I like the over he's at 49 and a half receiving yards right now on fandall This is more like 52 53 at other books too. So you're getting a little bit of value there He's hit 80 and 146 receiving yards in weeks one and two Houston's offense right now is fifth and pass rate thirds and third in plays per game Fourth and total drop backs and sixth and air yards And I know you're listening to that and you're saying well They've been trailing in games to start the year and I'm going to say they're facing jackson bill this week They can easily trail in this game as well. You know nico has a 23 and a half percent target share I think he can get this done fairly easily. Uh, you know, I don't I don't think this is that uh That tough of a bet I mean obviously can go south But I do think that you know from a process standpoint It makes sense to hit the over for nico in this case The other one is not on fandall. The other one's not on a lot of books, but I did find on a points bet Kendrick born his line is set at 35 and a half receiving yards over there and uh, I've been taking the under You get a jet secondary. That's obviously good jets defense. That's good Just in general and and one of the big things with Kendrick born He had that big week one and everyone got really excited about it But in week two davante parker returned to the lineup and Kendrick born's route participation went from 93 percent to 54 percent, you know, he is seeing good target shares regardless of that route participation Um, but at the same at the same time, you know, I'm trying to get players if I'm going to hit the over on the football field I want them to be playing. I want them to be active. So, um, you know, he has been Decent he's seen a decent target share But you know, the usage just really wasn't there in week two for me to feel confident And there's a reason for that usage too, right? That's the other thing is that davante parker was active Davante parker ran a hundred percent of the teams A route on a hundred percent of the team's drop backs. He's their number one hypothetically Which is frightening, but he's their number one hypothetically tough matchup I'm going to hit the under with Kendrick born. Uh, yeah, that one is now up at fan dual It's 33 and a half under is minus 114 and the this is And it just kind of shows you how gross the Patriots are as a team They've got uh five guys all between 22 and a half and 34 and a half nobody above nobody below Just a nightmare of a team from a market share perspective We talked about the touchdown props now successful. Those have been so far this year So for week number three JJ where you're seeing the best value right now Yeah, so one of them's one of them's kind of an easy one, uh on fandal travis etn's at minus 180 As an anytime touchdown score, but on draft king sees at minus 110 Um, and so i'm gonna i'm gonna take that You know over on dk the jags being big favorites They're facing houston the texans have already allowed for running back touchdowns to start the year You know, it's a defense that not only is going to face a lot of rush attempts because of the the scripts that they're likely to face Um, but it's it's one that you can run on so I think travis etn pretty safe bet an easier bet at minus 110 I'd take them there and then uh My my longer shot touchdown this week because I gotta throw that out there. Why not? This is like serious serious long shot Um, this is again the the juice is a little bit better on dk. You get it at plus 4 75 On fandal. It's plus 400 But i'm going donovan people's jones anytime touchdown. Okay, and so the logic behind this one Tennessee's been a straight pass funnel to start the year. You mentioned they've been really good at stopping the run Um, but they haven't been good at stopping the pass They've surrendered a top 10 pass rate both in neutral script environments and non-neutral script environments They rank first in air yards per attempt allowed and we know that dpj has had historically he's made some big plays Uh, their bottom 10, um and passing expected points allowed Um now, you know, they they face darik car and justin herbert But even still, you know, this defense is way better upfront than in the secondary Donovan people's jones target share has not been good It's been sub 10 to start the year But he's run the most routes on cleveland through the first two weeks of the season So i'm going to look at that usage. I'm going to ignore the fact that you know He hasn't seen the targets that we want him to see maybe there's a little bit of variance there I do think that elijah more and amara cooper are better players and you know If you'd rather go betting that you know elijah more has decent decent numbers here and decent odds here too So if you want to go that route that's totally fine But i'm going to stick with the longer shot and go with dpj at plus 4 75 or even you know If you want to you can go plus 400 on fandal. Yeah, I think that makes total sense given the matchup with the team that does Push work towards the passing game and like The browns may struggle to run with no nick chubb There are a lot of factors that lead us to think the browns may be more past heavy this week than usual going back to etn There were concerns initially and you had them as well because you bet tank bigs v plus 3 10 and that worked out But looking at snap share for etn specifically last week inside the red zone 68 snap rate for etn. This is for both weeks. It's 80 percent inside the 10 yard line He has one out of two goal line snaps for this team. So although etn Hasn't had like I know there are concerns around the goal line role for him But I think that those might be a bit overblown at least based on what we've seen so far Big speed had those two big errors against the colts that kind of led to a big decrease in usage So to me that's the spot where I want to put a lot of weight in snap rate inside the red zone If you have access to those numbers and I think that those numbers tell me jj That etn especially can get a minus 110 That's a bit of a bargain that seems like a bit of an overreaction to One goal line care two goal line carriers for bigs b in week one Yeah, it reminds me a bit of last week with brashad white in the way that it was just the line looked right? I mean, this is obviously a more our higher odds type play, you know Travis etn definitely against houston You know, he's one of the better player one of the better running backs in football So it's a lot easier to lock that in but again, this is just line shopping a little bit and seeing that it just looks better over on dk I don't think you need to bet the the minus 180 But I do think that when you're getting the the the better juice there it makes a lot of sense I'd agree with that. I agree with the overall philosophy around being on etn as well That is jj. Zacharias and make sure you check him out on twitter at late round qb find his work at late round Dot com and the late round fantasy football podcast jj I appreciate you as always swinging by for today Good luck to you across your fantasy and everything else across week number three. We'll talk to you once again next week Thanks, jim Alrighty again find jg on twitter at late round qb to get all of his work the late round fantasy football podcast also available Whatever you get your podcast and we're not done talking player props for today because it is still baseball season and Things are heating up getting into the thick of things right now Which means you got to bring back on rob freeman You can find him on twitter at pitching ninja, of course You can find his work at peacock mlb mlb on fox and on fangirl sports book as well and rob only Two fridays left during the regular season, but then we get to the post season. So, uh, I think juice is heating up We've seen some fantastic pitching performances so far this week. How you doing today? I'm doing great. How are you? I'm fantastic, man You seem to be you're fired up. I can tell I'm excited like how can you not be excited watching Blake snell go bananas earlier this week How can you not be excited? I mean, unless you had justin steele psi young stuff maybe or is that guy? You know, maybe that's something like that but michael king 12 or whatever strikeouts like it's been a good week for pitching It seems like I definitely have you know, michael king is really a force right now Like yeah, he has opened up a lot of people's eyes including my own like I always knew he had nasty stuff But he is a sure lock to be a a starter in the yankees rotation next year Right, he's got to be and I feel like if you're the yankees It's kind of best case scenario where it's a it's a lost season but You can play the young guys and kind of see what happens Obviously the jason domingas injury is a bummer But like you can play the young guys and see who can be a legit contributor for you next year And I think that king is kind of solidified himself as being a guy they can you know Put in like pen as being like an actual like contributor to that rotation And a really good one like we're not just talking scraps like he is a stud Yeah, and strikeouts stabilize really quickly and if you can get that number of strikeouts against a legitimate playoff bound offense That means quite a bit. So very impressive there and just hopefully we can continue a good week of pitching And uh feed off the good vibes to your parley from last night as well Let's see if we can run it back once again today. Let's do it like I I'm all into winning Alrighty, well, let's take a look at the board here for a friday night over at fan dual sportsbook Rob when you dig into what I think is once again a pretty good pitching slate Which strikeout props are you digging at fan dual sportsbook? So so for me I have charlie morton for six k's or more Cole raggins for six k's or more and swir Gibson long who has opened up my eyes too Um as has the whole tiger like the tigers have low key nasty pitching And I think people need to start recognizing that Yeah, I think let's start there. You know, why not? Um, let's have a little fun and talk about him because we haven't gotten a big sample on him He's facing the oakland a's for today and when it's a younger pitcher We don't have a big sample on I'm gonna lean on someone like you someone who is watching these games Who is going to have like an eye on them and can identify what they're doing what they're not doing When you've watched Gibson long so far What has stood out to you as far as making you believe that what he's doing is sustainable You know, he just can pitch it's not like he has overpower and overpowering fastball But his off speed stuff is filthy and that's really what's been getting you know, he pitches well off his fastball But I think it's a sustainable stuff. Like it's like Legit nasty and I expect him to have another big game. What's he coming off like an 11k outing last time? Something like that I you could tell me any number for this tiger Now I believe you're off Yeah, I like I I saw some stat like since august 15th they have the best era among starting pitching in baseball and Looking at like you have Reese Olson. Who's filthy tariff scuba who is top tier You know nasty dude and then Sawyer Gibson long out of nowhere Um, yeah, just tearing it up and it's a good matchup for him today. Yeah Yeah, I like it. Nobody's seen a lot of them. He's got quirky stuff. So yeah, I mean, I definitely like him Absolutely that number right now a fan of the sportsbook is five and a half the over is minus 130 for sore Gibson long So he takes on the Oakland athletics for tonight. Let's go back here and talk about charlie morton Morton taking on the washington nationals and they've been an annoying team as far as uh strikeout props go because They do such a good job of putting the ball in play What do they do when they put it in play not much but like they're you know, they're annoying But I think rob that's fully accounted for in this number because morton's number is not big He's at five and a half minus 115 on the over What to you says that morton has the stuff to overcome a line of that is pretty good at avoiding strikeouts Yeah, I mean his curveball when it's on is just unhittable Um, I like him coming back off a blank and kind of a crappy outing Because he wants to prove himself going into the postseason and and you know, he's going to step it up He's a vet and wants to you know prove himself and just try out different things So the nats lineup is a good lineup to try out things like that Because they don't strike out a lot I expect him to I mean to have a good day like he's he's Definitely other than last outing had been on a roll. So uh a good bounce back opportunity I think the thing I like about morton here specifically too is he's a veteran against a young team like they're they're scrappy and they put the ball in play but like at some point Experience matters wisdom matters and how many pitchers in baseball right now Had the same level of like wisdom as charlie morton. Yeah, they're there there aren't many especially at you know That high a level in those big games But you had freed go against them last night Do I picked and for the same reason like I expect, you know freed they're all sharpening their stuff up for the playoffs Great opportunity to do it against a lineup. That's really tough that you're going to see in the playoffs Like yeah, there's fewer strikeouts generally I think hitters battle a little bit more and this is a good opportunity for for them to try out things and show their stuff Yeah, absolutely Now the third one is col reggins and honestly rob How is col reggins not in the tigers because he's a guy who kind of came out in nowhere this year And has been phenomenal and when he first started doing it. I was skeptical. I thought okay Here's a guy who was in the bullpen didn't see a lot of strikeouts there. Should we expect him to Continue to rack up the number that he had got initially and then he's like nope f you i'm doing it anyway The number for reggins is five and a half minus 113 My question for you rob is how how did this happen? Um, it just freeing up his arm like dude throws gas I mean he's you know touching a hundred miles an hour with just filthy stuff like I don't know how it didn't happen earlier But uh, he worked on his mechanics in the off season got got sharp and then just had limited opportunities I mean when you're in relief, it's just limited and now it's freed him up to really throw Some guys throw harder in in in relief. He's one of those guys that if you give him a long track to run on He's going to do it and uh, you know, I don't like the match up a ton I think the astros are are are really tough lineup experience But I also think Cole Regans, you know, I think he he's he's coming off it You know it's worst outing in in a month and a half I I think he's going to want to shape things up show that he's for real again You know because he has to keep proving himself. He's one of those guys that Exactly what you said. He came up You didn't know what to expect. All of a sudden he's dominating. Can he do it? Yeah, he definitely can the stuff is there So, uh, I think it's I think it's a good game for yeah The number for Regans over five and a half is minus 113 if annual sportsbook So the three leg parlay Regans over five and a half Morton over five and a half and Sawyer Gibson long over five and a half plus five 23 And I think all those numbers are very fun. Honestly Rob. I think like from a baseball fan perspective It's also fun because like those are three fun guys to watch right now And like I know we want to find profitable bets and good bets, but like from a rooting interest perspective I care about that too entertainment and those are three guys that I would enjoy watching for tonight Yeah, you know, you just touched on something that I think's important because I narrowed down my The the ones I want to bet on but also narrow it down based on games I want to watch and stuff I want to see from guys and what I think they can do so right I do do it in part for entertainment. I mean I get entertained by strikeouts, but entertained by these type of guys So, uh, really variety of different you have a vet a hard throwing Young guy and then a craftier young guy all going some variety of different approaches And that's always important too. It's why we stress, you know Bet to a level where you can enjoy it and not be worried about it Like you can if you lose your bet, that's okay We want that to be an entertainment kind of thing So make sure keeping that in mind from a responsible gaming perspective as well Now the strikeout leaderboard is not up yet a vandal sports book But I think there are a lot of fun names going forward tonight So when you look at guys who could potentially rack out the most strikeouts on this slate Where are you first turning to as being guys who catch your attention in that regard? But anytime I see tyler glass now on a friday I'm like he's got to be he's going to be way up there, right? Like it's tyler glass now if he's on he gets a ton of case being double digits You know not a it it's a it's a really good match up for him I mean, I think that it's not going to be that easy which opens it up for a lot of other folks But he's where I start and first like he's a monster and you know, can he win the day? Yeah, he absolutely can but looking further down the board. I look at like papa Lopez or chris sale Yeah, i'm sale had a great outing last time You know wants to end with a flourish has a good lineup to pitch against So I mean that's a guy I'd give some attention to I think Again, we talked about this with Garrett Cole last week, but it's a revenge game rob What else could you want facing the white socks chris sale is? So obviously that's the most important thing not the fact that chris sale is nasty and healthy right now It's that he's facing his old team papa Lopez facing the angels that offense pretty high strikeout team Twins can wrap it up tonight. They can win their division with a win. Their magic number is one So might as well papa Lopez Finish off what he started he's been fantastic all year long it seems Yeah, and he's a guy who could who could definitely be you know, he can be 12 13 k's and that may be what it takes to win it today I'd also take a look at like if you want a long shot I'm sure so Sawyer Gibson long is going to be a long shot. Yeah for sure And uh, you know, he's a guy that is pitching against the lineup that he can get a lot of k's against the tigers have been hot Yeah, if you have a little extra money, it's not a bad thing. It's going to win you a lot if you win I mean, he showed he can do it like he showed he can have that upside he showed he can do that So I think that that matters a lot as well. Okay. So rob I want to thank you for coming on once again for today. Hopefully we can go two in a row with that With that strikeout prop parley. I like the picks for tonight Good luck to you. Enjoy the baseball not just tonight, but also this weekend. We'll talk to you once again next week Absolutely good scene again. All right. Thank you rob As always you can find rob on twitter as you know on twitter at pitching ninja If i'm a peacock mlb mlb on fox and fan dual sportsbook as well To get those strikeout parlays via rob. We're going to dive in and talk some NASCAR They're going to kansas for this weekend here in just one second But first snap into the action that's nfl season with fan dual america's number one sportsbook right now new customers Get 200 and bonus bets guaranteed when you play say five dollar bet That's 200 and bonus bets win or lose if you've been thinking about joining fan dual There's no better time to get in on the action. The app is easy to use There's a wide range of betting options between spreads player props totals and more So visit fan dual dot com and kick off the nfl season Fan dual official partner of the nfl must be 21 plus and president select states Fan dual is offering online sports waging in kansas under an agreement with kansas star casino llc First online real money wager only ten dollar first deposit required bonus issued as non-latchrable bonus bets that expire seven days after receipt Restricts and applies to terms at sportsbook dot fan dual dot com gambling problem call 1 800 gambler or visit fan dual dot com slash rg in colorado island michigan new jersey ohio pennsylvania illinois tennessee and virginia Call 1 800 next step or text next step to 5 3 3 4 2 in arizona 1 8 8 8 7 8 9 7 7 7 7 Or visit cpg.org slash chat and connecticut 1 809 with it in indiana 1 800 5 2 2 40 700 to visit ks gambling health dot com in kansas 1 8 7 7 7 7 7 0 stop in louisiana visit md gambling health at organ maryland 1 800 gambler dot net in west virginia call 1 800 5 2 2 40 700 in wyoming hope is here Visit gambling helpline ma.org or call 800 3 2 7 50 50 for 24 7 support in massachusetts or call 1 8 7 7 8 hope and why or text open why in new york Let's dig in now to the nascar cup series for this weekend in texas will talk xfinity Later on as well second round of the nascar cup series playoff the first race the second round And it's a total reset. You know if you were in a hole in the first round But advanced you get a reset based on your playoff points And that's a great thing for martin truex jr. Who barely advanced out of the first round And i kind of think he could lock up a spot in the round of eight on sunday truex 9 to 1 right now At bandual sportsbook cup series in texas One and a half mile track with minimal tire works. It was recently repaved. So don't see a lot of fall off there and other than kansas We haven't seen a lot of mile and out tracks recently and kansas is very different from texas different configuration different tire wear all those things now I think as a result of that data that matters to this week does include michigan and pocano because michigan and pocano are Recent races at high speed tracks with minimal tire wear and texas checks those same boxes as well So although they're different lengths i think they do matter for this weekend and looking at those races Toyota's ran really well including truex the cup series has run Seven races on non drafting larger ovals so far this year Which means a mile and a half or longer and in those seven races truex has three podiums Two of those were in michigan and pocano. So the recent ones at higher speed tracks Other one was in charlotte. It is the same configuration as texas, but very different tire fall off there So it's a comp but not a great comp So in the tracks most similar, I think that charlotte's more similar than kansas as a result of the configuration Truex has run really well now truex has never won in texas in 33 tries So it's not his best track, but I think that's accounted for in the odds here I don't think that truex should be the fifth shortest odds this week that which is where he is right now My model is truex at 11.8 to win his implied odds at nine uh 91 are 10 percent So I am more than happy to bet him in that spot. I think truex a very good option for this week in the cup series Two other spots where I see value for sunday are top 10 bets Those two bets are uh, daniel suarez at plus 230 and then also austin syndrake who is eight to one now suarez Was plus 280 earlier on this week, and I like that number more there obviously But I do still show value on him at plus 230. I have 32.7 percent for suarez His implied odds are 30.3 percent. So not just big of a gap, but it's still a gap at least texas for suarez has been a good track when he was with steward haas racing He had a pair of podiums here and obviously the equipment there was better than what he has right now based on the lack of speed track houses had recently but We did see suarez run well in michigan. He had a top 10 average running position there He finished inside the top 10 as well, and that does matter So track house not in tippy top form right now, but that's also why the odds are longer here So even at plus 230 I still think there's a bit of value on daniel suarez to finish top 10 for this week syndrake is longer He has eight to one to finish inside the top 10 You can actually get this at nine to one and ten to one some other books as well So as always shop around get the best number But the implied odds eight to one are 11.1 and I syndrake at 21 which is a big gap and typically If you fight the market the market's going to win Um in in these situations where the gap is big But I can also kind of explain that gap and I think it's because syndrake has had a bunch of incidents this year on similar tracks I mentioned before there have been seven races on bigger non drafting ovals syndrake has finished multiple laps down in four of the seven races He's had crashes. He's had a loose wheel a lot of things have worked against him in those races But in the other three he's been decent And he hasn't been as bad as this number implies So if you think the incidents continue, obviously this wouldn't be a good bet because uh that you know incidents do matter But I think that uh incidents are more random than we give them credit for being I think it's variance more than anything So I believe what the model is saying here I am more than okay betting syndrake as long as you can get him at eight to one or longer I think that it helps alleviate the concerns around the incidents It's just a very long number on a guy who's with a team that's not as good as it was But is still very fast relative to other guys at this number. So syndrake eight to one Good bet, but as always make sure you shop around So cup series bets I like this week martin shurex junior nine to one to win Daniel suarez plus 230 for a top 10 and austin syndrake plus 800 for a top 10 as well As far as the xfinity series goes, I actually do show value in the favorites. That is john hunter nema check He's plus 240 if annual sportsbook. I have nema check at 30.3 percent to win his implied odds are 29.4 percent Not a huge gap, but I do agree with that gap and being above market on nema check He's won three out of six races on bigger non drafting ovals and some of those races Came when there were cup series drivers in the field nema check still beat them He had a runner-up in one of the other races. So first or second in Four out of those six races. He's a very good driver He's on the fastest team in the sport right now and that's a track where equipment does matter The driver obviously matters too, but even though it's not a lot of value I am okay betting nema check at plus 240 or longer for this weekend And he can get a plus 275 out there. Uh, and I think that is very enticing for nema check I also do show value in chanler smith at 25 to 1 riley herbst at 35 to 1 You know, I show value in uh smith every week it seems like But it's for a good reason. He nearly had to win in vegas earlier on this year And I just think he's better than plus 2500 in a race with no cup series drivers even While i'm giving nema check a lot of win equity It's a bit more wide open the situations. He's on a team that has enough speed to get the job done here He nearly had to win at a similar track earlier on this year. He's had a lot of incidents recently. So similar to syndic where Maybe just accident prone right now, but I tend to chalk that up more to variance So implied odds for smith 3.8 percent. I have met 5.1 percent I think chanler smith is a very fine bet for this week. Other one has mentioned is riley herbst I have met 3.8 percent to win His implied odds at 35 to 1 or 2.8 percent You can get 45 to 1 out there and I'd be inclined to take that because Herbst has a fast car and equipment matters at this track So I think he gets a boost on equipment centric tracks as a result of his team Where maybe he can make fewer mistakes those do happen a lot with herbst and He's been a lot better this year. So that's definitely worth noting, but there have still been Mistakes that have crept in at times. So I would like this longer than uh, plus 35 100 before I bite but you can't get that out there. So rally herbst fine option for this week So herbst and smith outright if you can get longer than 35 to 1 on herbst, I would take that Smith 25 to 1 fine by me. I think there is a 28 out there and then nema check plus 240 is fine, but Might be able to get plus to 275 for him as well That is all that we have here for today on covering the spread want to give a big thank you once again To our guests jjzak recent and rob freeman check out jj on twitter at late round qb You can find rob at pitching ninja as well. I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow fan dual research at fan dual research want to thank you all for tuning in for today Good luck to your bets across this weekend. Enjoy all the fantastic sports action We'll talk to you once again monday to preview another double header in monday night football This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network You