 I have two quick announcements before I begin. First, I'm moving my official Instagram to my main account, the link to which will be in the bio. Also, my 2000 subscriber Q&A is coming up, and I'm once again wanting your questions so I can make a quality special for you guys. When you think of countries that are in the running to become great powers in the near future, Ethiopia probably didn't cross your mind, did it? Well, even if it has a significantly lower chance of reaching a state where it has a large sphere of influence like other countries I've talked about on this channel, there is a case to be made for Ethiopia becoming at least a regional power. I will look into what the country has in its favor to reach regional hegemony, and what factors will inevitably hold it back. Ethiopia has a long and complicated history, but for the sake of time I will try to focus on its more modern history. Being one of the first nations in the world to adopt Christianity, Ethiopia has been around a few different forms for quite some time, mostly centered in the highlands. The most influential and largest of the Habesha peoples have been the Amhara, whose ethnic homeland has been the center of Ethiopian civilization. When talking about Ethiopia in the age of colonization, one must remember that they too were an empire. The Ethiopian Empire near its height, where its borders are mostly co-turned with today's borders, can control the ethnic lands of the Tigray, Oromo, Afar, Somali, Harari, among many other groups. It maintained independence throughout most of the European colonization of Africa, except for a brief period between 1936 and 41 when Italy occupied it. During decolonization, the territory of Eritrea was given to Ethiopia in 1952, and the beginning of its independence war nine years later would be one of several major ethnic conflicts within the country. The communist overthrow of the House of Solomon, led by Emperor Haile Selassie, occurred in 1974, beginning the Ethiopian Civil War, which mostly consisted of anti-government rebellions led by ethnic minorities. The country was ruled until 1987 by the Derg, a communist military junta. The coalition of these anti-government forces, the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front, initially communist itself, vouched for ethnic federalism and overthrew the government in 1994 after the capture of Abis Ababa. The Tigray People's Liberation Front headed this capture, and since then Ethiopia has functioned under this system, with the TPLF being the most influential party in the coalition. The EPRDF dissolved in 2019, and has since been replaced with the Prosperity Party, with Prime Minister Abi Ahmed and ethnic Oromo heading the government. With the TPLF's refusal to join this new coalition, Ethiopia has been thrust into another ethnic conflict, this time against the namesake Tigris, starting in 2020. Putting these problems aside for a minute, in what ways can Ethiopia expand its influence in the region? The country benefits from a quickly growing and young population, capable of building and driving Ethiopia's industrial sector forward. This could also be a potential problem, as having a youth bulge in the population can lead to large youth unemployment, especially if the country has a quickly growing urban population. Luckily, Ethiopia does not suffer from this problem, though more of its population, around 80%, are rural, so a great portion of Ethiopians are employed in agriculture and raw materials extraction. Yet, the country should still be concerned about its urban growth, as if it is too quick, it can lead to both high unemployment and poor, crowded living standards. I take most of my inspiration from these warnings from one particular real-life example, Egypt. Speaking of which, Egypt is in really bad shape, and I don't mean that lightly. With a country that is tied to the Nile, and with more than half of its population living in rural areas along it, Egypt is one of the countries of the globe most susceptible to water insecurity, and one of the greatest threats to Egypt's water is Ethiopia. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance dam on the Blue Nile is a project being undertaken by the country to grant electricity to millions of new people, and improve farming output by filling the reservoir near the dam. However, this is bound to negatively affect the water supply of both Egypt and Sudan. An Egyptian agricultural officials believe that the Nile would lose 20 to 30% of its water supply, sharply reducing agricultural output. The country has threatened war also. Creating this dam would give Ethiopia life and death control over the water supply of Egypt and Sudan, giving the country not only increased energy output in its own borders, but also expanding its political sphere. There, of course, is no good outcome to this situation should the dam go through to its full potential. Egypt would either go to war with Ethiopia to stop the dam, which would create a huge humanitarian crisis, where you'd have to do nothing, leading to guaranteed water scarcity, and, you guessed it, a huge humanitarian crisis. With 100 million strong and growing in Egypt, a refugee crisis of this magnitude would make the Syrian refugee crisis look like a walk in the park for Europe. Europe would be expected to take in most of these climate refugees, and for this reason they would likely back Egypt in this dispute. They can at least have a better shot at maintaining their water supply. This would also be so that Europe could avoid another refugee crisis in its borders. Putting Egypt and Sudan under Ethiopian control, however, might change Ethiopia's energy prospects in unforeseeable ways, possibly in ways that don't affect Egypt's water supply and keep the country under its control. Yet, they would probably keep the Renaissance dam in operation to ensure the downstream countries remain in their sphere. One other inevitable piece to the puzzle this brings up is having a coastline. Ethiopia doesn't have one. Djibouti is being planned to base the revival of Ethiopia's navy, and it is a potential site for future Ethiopian influence, though this could be to the ire of several nations who hold military bases there also. The Ethiopian navy could potentially be large enough should a coastline be created one way or another to police the Red Sea and reduce piracy, especially those originating in Somalia. Ethiopian theory could rope the country into its sphere and establish stability there, but there are a few small problems with this prospect, and for that matter, all of the prospects that I have mentioned. And by small problems, I mean quite the opposite. Ethiopia struggles from a very poor population, mounting ethnic tensions and a largely unadvanced economy. The GDP per capita of Ethiopia, adjusted for purchasing power, is only around $2,700 US, putting it near the bottom of the world in this respect. The human development level is also low, though this greatly varies by region. More rural regions have much lower human development, while Addis Ababa's level is actually considered to be high, and other urban centers like Harar and Deeridawa have relatively high levels also. Ethiopia's economy is also growing at one of the fastest rates in the world, though the country still lacks a proper industrial sector, with around three quarters of the population involved in the primary sector of raw materials extraction, including mining and farming, while only around 7% are even employed in manufacturing. Countries cannot advance to become global, or even regional powers, if they don't have the funds to do so. Even an economy like Turkey's, highly advanced in comparison, gives many viewers of this channel great skepticism in my claims that it will reach great power status, so you see what I mean. This is not to mention the internal division that Ethiopia faces. The country uses an ethnic federalist system, where each of the major ethnic groups have their own regions of the country. Many of these regions have been home to resistance movements against the Ethiopian government throughout history, though a coalition of such resistance groups did create the modern government. This doesn't change the fact that many of these ethnic groups have large numbers outside of Ethiopia, citing a reason for irredentism for countries like Somalia, though frankly that country is too internally divided to act on these ambitions. Ethiopia is currently fighting the Tigray War in the north of the country, a worrying sign for the country's overall security. Ethnic tensions are not the only division the country faces, religion could in fact be a greater threat to Ethiopia's unity. Christians of all denominations make up around 63.5% of the population, while Muslims sit around 34.6%. Though it looks like Muslims are growing at a faster rate than Christians. Birth rates in Muslim majority regions are much higher than Christian regions, citing a possible change in the religious makeup of the country. It's too early to tell if these tensions have the potential to evolve into something more serious, but the country should still continue to be wearing of the changing demographics. So will Ethiopia become a great power in the near future? I'm going to go with no, as theoretically it has the potential to exert its influence across northeast Africa in the ways that I've explained, though its internal economic issues and ethnic tensions will inevitably hold it back for the foreseeable future. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam could create a great opportunity to build Ethiopia's economy, though it could face serious challenges in the event that Egypt goes to war to fight for its water.