 What our man Teddy kegs that we talked to Teddy every Wednesday folks at 40 past the hour or you can reach it Teddy At his website forex dash trading dash unlock comm Teddy kegs that good morning. Good morning, Tommy We got a lot to talk about today We better man. It's not a slow day in the market. That's for sure. I was talking about Kevin Hicks This morning. I said we live in interesting times man and today an interesting day for sure With everything going on so from a forex perspective Teddy Which I know is how you look at things usually first and foremost as you digest everything What do you look at on a day like today in the forex market? If we can start things off that we're you know, waiting for chairman Powell at 2 o'clock press conference at 2 30 As a forex trader, what do you look at that might be moving especially on that type of news driven event potentially Well until the meeting is over. I think you're gonna see a very dead day in most of the currencies especially Euro the pound Swiss. I think they're going nowhere until after the meeting now You might see the US dollar Canada because it's breaching some key resistance right now that trend the motive the momentum is there I think there might still see a lift in that that may continue to trend through the day Yeah, probably because oil is pretty stable right now, you know So and they're waiting for the interest rate moves, which right now is odds are they're going up, you know So not that they're gonna pull the trigger, you know today, but that's gonna be an issue So those are the old the Canada US dollar Canada and also the US dollar yen is looking like it wants to break out to the Upside also today. Those are the only two. I think you're gonna see any action until the 115 Well, Chicago time or 215 your time, you know once that happens. Yeah, now. Here's here's the thing is Especially like you look at the euro and the pound are not too far away from their lows They look like they want a rally, but this is the kind of day where the elbows are gonna kick up You know, you're gonna have a lot of noise coming out regardless of what they say like the odds of them pulling the trigger are probably very slim I don't think that's gonna happen today, you know, so especially because they have to digest the PPI data from yesterday They added or from the other day and also the CPI data, you know, these numbers are getting really scary time Yeah, I'm not sure if you heard me say man. I say the same thing saying it's really remarkable that the Conversation is just how quickly we're gonna slow asset purchases and you know, the fed's not gonna freak out the market folks I'm out of here saying that they're just gonna end all this stuff But it is remarkable Teddy that you got a CPI at almost 7% you get a PPI at almost 10% and the Fed is still actively buying an almost incomprehensible 60 70 60 billion dollars every single month It's a staggering level of stimulus still going on with those numbers. So I agree man. I agree And let's see if we could because I was pulled it up the kid the the US dollar Canada That has it looks like that was almost the biggest mover that we've had in the last week Teddy So what is driving the US dollar can is that the oil trade going on there? No, I think that's actually the interest rate trade that's driving it right now So the oil trade is pretty stable But the right now the whole world's looking at the 30 year and the 10 year to continue to trend lower, you know And right now they've been kind of consolidating and I think it's because of they were waiting for the big inflation numbers And also because they're waiting on the Fed We're done for the year now when it comes to most of the numbers and especially with the Fed So what's gonna be the outlook for 2022 now? We've been already talking about this kind of trend already for months now The Fed is finally admitting to the fact that guess what? 2022 is gonna be a year of inflation. There's no way you can look around it, you know So there's no way the breaks are coming down on inflation for at least the next six to twelve months, you know And that's a very severe Environment for the Fed to deal with, you know, I mean, yeah, we're gonna be in the first time now We're we have a lot of first-time things going on right now in the business sectors, you know So and I think that it's gonna be a very shaky Especially when it comes to the interest rate play where we know rates are going higher So what's that can do to the value of the dollar, you know So like there's all kinds of scenarios where even if we get our supply chains to kick back up into gear and you smooth Those things out over the next six months What happens if there's a radical either decline or rally in the dollar over the next say three months, you know How does that play into inflation as well, you know, so I mean there's certain ways in which Are the dollar strength or weakness may come into play and help us as far as either our exports or our imports Depending on where you're going to and from, you know But I don't know how that's gonna get mitigated in the smooth fashion next year. Honestly I can't even begin to see how that could happen Yeah, there's so many things in play man And even you know, if you look at the best-case scenario most which is the estimates at this point in terms of talking about inflation I think they go out and you eventually get to the beginning of 2023 that you're talking about maybe two and a half percent CPI or something like that Which the Fed would totally be cool with probably as you're just over the number They're looking for But that's a year out more than a year out right and that's kind of like in my opinion a best-case scenario because as you stated It's not going to go from seven percent. We're seeing the numbers to 2.5 percent Even on a quarterly basis that would be very very difficult with everything in flux But in my own head That's the estimate right now for the the beginning of 2023 But I go back to so many economists getting it so wrong in 2021 the inflation numbers they were looking for were nothing like what we're seeing right now So those are the same people putting out the estimates that give us the best-case scenario is about a year from now We're back to normal. Well, what happens if they're missing there, right? Which has to be right it in as a trader you should be factoring in all possibilities and assigning them a probability And I just see at least the possibility that it's a little bit harder to get under control And then if it is a little harder to get under control Maybe that forces the feds hand a little bit faster, which could freak out the market to some degree sure, but but we're gonna find out man over the next three or six months because Chairman Powell when we were on vacation a couple weeks ago. I think I told you on our last one We chatted last week. I said I chat with my dad He tells me what chairman Powell just said. I said, whoa, that's a pretty strong statement man time to retire the term Transitory he was the biggest cheerleader of that term. I think overall And so we come to the first meeting where he's gonna, you know Where that is his mindset because the last time he had a meeting in a press conference He was still technically a believer in the word transitory at least when he was putting it out So we got about a minute and a half Teddy What other currencies are you looking at? It's been a pretty tame week That's why you know in terms of chopping around maybe waiting for these big because we have an ECB decision and a Bank of England Decision coming up tomorrow. Correct. And it's and that's that that's what's been going on for the past week and a half Is that you've seen that I mean if you look at the US dollar Swiss, I mean talk about Swiss cheese, you know I mean, that's just a very narrow range trade I mean the range traders is definitely cleaning up the past like week and a half and the Euro the pound and the Swiss You know, so I expect you're going to see a breakout after today But okay, I would be very leery of what happens off of the initial release You know, like I said the elbows are gonna like it wouldn't be it would not surprise me to see like for instance The British pound spiked low to a all-new look new move low today and then still settle higher on the day You know what I mean like that kind of move or even rally make new highs And then all of a sudden tank and actually make new lows on the day, you know, and I mean, okay So until we have a verification going into tomorrow I would say for the FX market if you're not in a position working it stay out because It's just you're not gonna be able to compete with the machines if we actually have volatility now if we have a dead number, you know Which I don't know exactly how that would occur. I think we're gonna see some action no matter what, you know Especially with I think the US dollar again and also the US dollar Canada If the other ones don't move off the number those will probably continue their trend those might and those might actually be the ones where you see an accelerated movement today because you got to think that a lot of traders are Planning on the fact that we have volatility we got a run man. I appreciate I appreciate the update We'll talk to you one more time before Christmas next week, man. You all right. Thanks. Okay. We'll be right back