 Good morning and welcome to CMC Markets on Friday the 15th of March and this quick look at the week beginning the 18th of March and it's been a fairly positive week for equity markets in general with the S&P 500 retesting that big resistance level at 2815 2820 the FTSE 100 retesting multi-week highs and potentially the 200 day moving average and the German DAX Euro stocks 50 also closing Near to their highest levels in several weeks And I think one of the reasons that we've seen sentiment particularly in Europe start to pick up is the prospect that we could well see a Brexit extension Anyone who's been following events at Westminster this week will probably be throwing their hands up in despair as MPs Voted to take a no-deal Brexit off the table and also voted by quite a substantial margin to ask the European Union to extend article 50 Either to June the 30th in the event Theresa May is able to bring her deal back to Parliament and get approval for it Failing that we could actually see the European Union be asked for a longer extension, but at the moment The UK government has just about retained overall control of the Brexit process but I don't think it's understating things to Admit that if Theresa May is unable to get her deal through Parliament by the 20th of March next week then Control of the Brexit process then passes to the European Council meeting Which is due to take place on the 21st of the 22nd of March, but before we talk about the upcoming weeks events Let's look at some of the key levels on the major indices So the FTSE 100 has pushed back up above the 7,200 level Potentially looking to retest 7250 and the 200-day moving average so going to be keeping an eye In particular on that also paying particular attention to the DAX and The and a potential retest of the highs that we saw at the beginning of March around about seven thousand eleven thousand 700 so looking to see whether or not the impetus is there For us to take out those previous highs and also looking at the S&P 500 as well Retesting these peaks at 28 15 28 20 we can see that here Horizontal line through there had a little bit of weakness towards the end of this week But still looking to close the week up on a positive note But nonetheless, I think there is concern that any further slippage and a potential China US trade deal could see some of that sentiment That positive sentiment start to slip away so Looking looking to retest some very very key resistance levels over the course of the next few days So let's look forward to the upcoming week And it's set to be a very busy week in the news cycle not obviously not only do we have a potential? Third meaningful vote for Theresa May's or meaning less votes depending on your point of view Whether you're being cynical or not Potential third meaningful vote for Theresa May's rather battered withdrawal agreement the the Stirling Stirling chart appears to like the prospect of a potential deal or a potential extension and Actually, if we look at the way the moving averages are forming They are still they are starting to point to a slight move higher In the cable rate and we can look at the trend line support that currently comes in around about 130 We've also posted a golden cross on the daily chart, which is where the 50-day moving average is 50-day moving average Crosses above the 200-day moving average and the 200-day moving average is now starting to flatten out and potentially Turn higher so in terms of a technical basis the outlook for cable that does appear to be starting to look positive So what does that mean in terms of the news cycle? Well, I think it either it can mean one or two things it can either mean that ultimately Theresa May's withdrawal agreement finally staggers across the line or Alternatively, we get the EU Council grant a one or two year extension to the article 50 deadline either which way it will bring a degree of certainty to Macro-economic events going forward because if the deal gets passed and ultimately we can then move on to the next stage and The future trade relationship going forward But certainly in the context of the chart here as long as we stay above 130 170 and obviously this trend line support and moving averages here then momentum for cable should continue to remain positive It's also a big week for central bank meetings If you look away from Westminster and if you look away from the European Council meeting We've got the latest Federal Reserve rate meeting the Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank So let's start with the Federal Reserve now the dollar index has been continuing to Retest those highs are around about 97 50 and on each occasion it has failed to move above them And I think ultimately I think a certain amount of dollar weakness could actually be fairly sterling positive Going forward as well always assuming there are no surprises from next week's from the upcoming weeks events in the European Council The recent February payrolls report out of the US did come in much lower than expected Now that might be a worry if the economy is showing sharp signs of slowing down that isn't the case However, it's too early to draw any types of conclusions Unemployment and underemployment both dropped quite sharply in February and wages rose at their fastest rate since the financial crisis And inflation continues to look look soft So Fed officials have indicated that they are prepared to play a much longer watching brief for the time being with Fed Chair Jay Powell reiterating earlier this month that further rate rises are some way off now obviously Dolly Yen has actually continued to edge higher and that could actually Help underpin the dollar in the short term But certainly I think in the longer term the dollar is looking a little toppy And particularly if you start to look at the US 10 year yield Which continues to languish near the bottom end of its recent range or around about 2.6 and 2.65 percent We've also got a host of UK data out in the coming week along with obviously the Bank of England meeting We've got wages and CPI data from the UK and the UK inflation outlook Pretty much like the inflation outlook everywhere else continues to look soft headline CPI is at multi month lows Wage growth continues to rise at the highest levels in a decade and this trend looks set to continue Falling inflation higher wages means real real wages are going to continue to wedge higher And ultimately that means that the Bank of England is likely to remain on hold It's going to be rather curious timing because the Bank of England meeting takes place on exactly the same day as the first day of The European Council meeting nonetheless With only just just under two weeks to go until Brexit or the article 50 triggering date It was surprised no one that I'm not expecting the Bank of England to move at all this week or for the foreseeable future So Bank of England unchanged Fed unchanged Swiss National Bank. Yeah, what a surprise Unchanged so not looking for any changes there And if we look at the latest France and Germany flash PMI data, that is likely to paint a particularly Mixed or weak picture for the French and German economies It's certainly been a tale of two halves for French and German PMIs manufacturing looking weak services slightly more robust But ultimately European Central Bank and Mario Draghi in particular and the announcement of another TLTRO Starting in September suggests that the European Central Bank is unlikely to Doesn't have a particularly bullish outlook for the European economy going forward. So those are the key events for the upcoming week We also have a number of significant earnings announcements, which could give us an insight into how UK and US consumers are spending their money We've got four-year results for next PLC on the 21st of March. We've got Ted Baker's four-year numbers Putting aside the departure of CEO Ray Kelvin should be an interesting Insight into how well their international sales are doing relative to their UK sales And then we also have the latest quarterly numbers From FedEx and that should give us a decent insight into how US consumers are faring Given that we've seen some very weak retail sales numbers out of the US Against a backdrop of some decent earnings numbers from Walmart, Amazon and Target So and then we can finish off on the 21st with Nike's Q3 numbers Having hit an all-time high in February the glide path for Nike's share price is pretty much one way But obviously we've had the saga of the exploding trainer Will that have impacted their numbers in the third quarter? So that's it for this week ladies and gentlemen once again, thank you very much for listening This is Michael Houston talking to you from CMC Markets