 Welcome traders to another Tickmail Weekly Market Outlook with me, Patrick Munley, for week commencing the 7th of November. Fed chair Jerome Powell has successfully brought the markets on board with the notion that while the central bank will likely look to slow the pace of rate hikes from December after four consecutive 75 basis point moves, the terminal interest rate will likely end up being higher than what it signalled back in September. Nonetheless, this will depend on the data flow if inflation and job numbers continue on the strong side. It may be that officials end up doing a 5th 75 basis point move. Given this uncertainty, markets are currently pricing around 58 basis points for the December meeting and 42 basis points for February, with a final 25 basis point hike coming at some point in the second quarter of 2023. This means data will be important, but not critical in determining the path forward. The key release is the consumer price index, with the focus being within that data, the month on month core exclude an energy number. Over the past six months, we had one at 0.7, four at 0.6, and one at 0.3%. We need to see numbers closer to 0.2 to bring the annual rate towards that 2% target over time. The consensus right now is for a 0.5% print this week. There is also a second bite of the cherry ahead of the December meeting, December FOMC meeting on 14th of December, given that the November CPI is published on the 13th of December. Nonetheless, if we get a downside surprise, we could see markets looking to price a greater chance of a 50 basis point move in December, and possibly a slightly lower terminal rate. Other data in the US this week includes consumer credit and consumer confidence, along with small business optimism. However, these will likely be overlooked given the midterm elections are due on Tuesday. Many polls appear to show momentum is building for the Republican Party candidates, with the majority in both the House and the Senate now looking likely, the most likely outcome really. And if the Republicans can gain control of Congress, President Joe Biden's ability to pass legislation will be severely curtailed. Indeed, there is far less probability of any fiscal support for the economy through the recession than if the Democrats retain control of Congress, giving Republican Republicans will look to block it. Consequently, if the Democrats lose, then it's more likely that we will see interest rate cuts in the second half of 2023 to provide that stimulus to help the economy rebound, rather than if they win, where the fiscal policy would likely do more of the heavy lifting and interest rates stay higher for longer to offset any inflationary impulse. So from a technical perspective, the dollar index this week treaded up into the high volume load and the upper end of the current channel that we're trading in potential bull flag scenario developing here look like at one point we're going to break up to test the invalidation point for our current pattern, but we didn't and sell a step back in and we closed pretty weak on Friday at the lows. So what I'm looking for now is an extension to the downside. As long as any intermediate rallies are capped around that 111 50 111 60 area, we are looking for a move back down through 110 20 prior cycle lows at one nine thirties and then on to our target zone of 109. Then from there, we'll see if buyers are going to step back in from a technical perspective at this stage, it will really take a close back through this 113 85 the validation level for this pattern to suggest that we will extend to the upside talking to move up into this daily trim line projected resistance coming in 117 fifties towards 118 in the euro zone from a data perspective. Canberra is a little lighter next week. We've got November syntax investor confidence out on Monday last time negative 38.3 collapse confidence really undermines Europe's resilience to date. And then heading to Tuesday September retail sales last time negative 0.3 percent. It's been negative so far this year broadly based across the region and that rounds out the data in in the euro zone this week. So moving to the charts from a technical perspective, the euro tested and held the trend channel support and we finished with a strong close on Friday, nice outside reversal pattern on the daily time frame there. So I'm looking now for any pullbacks to find support into the 98 sixties. And there we look for a move back up to test price cycle highs just above parity and then on to the target level of monthly projected range resistance coming in just below 102. At this stage, we'll take a close below the 96 twenties to invalidate this pattern and suggest we are heading lower moving to the UK. And it's a very light day to week in the UK next week. Any real data note comes on Friday with the Q3 GDP print looking for as well last time out 0.2 percent print sustained period of negative growth really ahead for the UK. It's widely believed. And then we also get September trade balance last time. Negative seven billion deficit to remain wide for now. So from a technical perspective in terms of sterling looking for any move now into the one 14 40s and any pullbacks from there to find support into the one 12 80 one 13 area from there. We then look for an extension up to retest prior cycle highs one 16 30s. Then on to the next upside objective at one 18 from the technical perspective, any close back through our validation level at one oh nine of the bearish developments opening and move back down to test support towards that one oh five 50. Dollar yen in terms of data in Japan next week. Tuesday, we get September household spending 70 to year over year looking for 2.7 versus last time out 5.1 cent week retail spending capacity limiting the consumer rebound. Then heading into Wednesday, we get September current account balance looking for two hundred seventy five billion yen there. Opportunities in Asia develop world demand a risk really for for that current account balance and that rounds out the data in Japan next week from a technical perspective. Dollar yen is still consolidating potential triangle pattern here now. So I'm looking for resistance coming around this 148 level bearish reversal patterns, their opportunity to engage on the short side to target and move down to our equality objective 143 25 equally only close through that 145 60 will also be an opportunity to encourage short exposure for that downside objective. At this stage, take a close through our validation level 149 75 to suggest another upside extension to retest price cycle highs just below one of two rounding things out down under in Australia. In terms of data, ANC job ads on Monday, so very high level. Then on Tuesday, we get the November consumer sentiment a 3.7 last time out. Many rally post that October 25 basis point rate hike. But will this be a feature again? I'm not so sure. October NAB business survey, September conditions up and elevated October, potentially this data is going to show some signs of slowing. And on Wednesday, we have RBA definitely given a book speaking at an economic outlook event in Sydney. Then heading into Thursday, inflation expectations five point four percent last time that elevated and well above the target band mirroring actual inflation that rounds out the data down under in Australia next week. So from a technical perspective, the Aussie dollar pullback into retest or invalidation level held and held the channel support nice upside extension on Friday. So I'm looking for pullbacks now to find support into the sixty four handle and from there, we're watching for bullish reversal patterns to engage on the long side takes up into our target zone at the sixty five nineties at this stage to close through on validation level at the sixty two seventies to suggest to return to the downside and looking for a retest of the price cycle is into sixty one seventies. Last but not least, let's check out our weekend risk barometer, Bitcoin. Bitcoin is actually traded up into our target zone or just a hip shot. They're twenty one thousand four hundred seventy. So we're looking now for a new new pattern to develop here in terms of Bitcoin. So ideally what I'd like to see now are three way of corrective move here to find support back into this just below the twenty one thousand level. And we're going to have a new upside objective in terms of the test of this trend line resistance just below the twenty two thousand level. As always, traders, plan the trade, trade the plan. And most importantly, manage your risk until next week. Thanks very much.