 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network At least for me here in Chicago. It is a chilly day. It is 35 degrees. It was snowing this morning when walking the dog Not a day when I want to be outside But luckily for me there is baseball on for the entire day for today What I want to do is go through and kind of give you like a viewing guide for today By going with some bets at like through various start times at Fandall sports If you're listening during the afternoon Hopefully get a couple of bets in there some stuff. I like for tonight as well It's gonna lay out the day trying to give you some rooting interests for today across Major League Baseball If you are so enticed we'll talk some baseball for today But I'll talk F1 in Japan to close out the show later on as well This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and Fandall research My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a managing editor of digital media for Fandall research here to break down today's MLB betting slate letting you know where I see value at Fandall sports book talking some totals a money line I like and a prop that we could turn into a same game parlay as well Of course, like I said, we'll talk F1 in Japan later on the first day reminder To make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast tomorrow Dr. Ed Fang will join us once again breaking down the men's and women's final fours for college basketball We're gonna talk about those four games coming up this weekend talk about Whether there are championship futures at ad likes we'll talk about all that to get his thoughts on they remain They're remaining at four teams for both the men and women that is coming up tomorrow You can get that by subscribing to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast You can also find us on the Fandall YouTube page and a Fandall TV plus Of course, we're talking MLB today if you want MLB betting every day You can check out the solo shot over on the Fandall research podcast feed I'm breaking down my top props every single weekday there then talking DFS later on The props I discussed in the solo shot not gonna have those in the show for today I want to keep the two shows independent so talking more so money lines and totals on this show for the most part with the Props over on the solo shot so search for a Fandall research podcast to get that as it is posted each and every weekday if Your back bracket is busted in the men's and women's turn it do not worry because Fandall Let's you bet on every game of the turn we could bet on individual games futures Etc. Etc. Time to go dancing on America's number one sports book right now new customers get $200 bonus bets your first $5 bet wins. That's 200 bucks. She's on point spreads money lines and more There's a fandall.com and bet on college hoops until they cut down the nets must be 21 plus in president select states Fandall is offering online sports waging in Kansas under agreement with Kansas darkest, you know, LLC first online real money wager Only $10 first deposit required bonus issued is now a trouble bonus bets that expire seven days after a seat see terms That's sportsbook dot fandall comm gambling problem call 1 800 gambler over to fandall comm slash RG Colorado, Iowa, Michigan New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee, Virginia, North Carolina and Vermont Call 1 800 next step or text next step to 5 3 3 4 2 any result of 1 8 8 7 8 7 7 7 7 or the ccpg.org slash chat Connecticut 1 8 109 and with it in Indiana 105 2 2 47 hundreds of chaos gambling health.com in Kansas 1 8 7 7 7 7 7 0 stop in Louisiana visit MD gambling health on Oregon, Maryland 1 800 gambler.net in West Virginia 1 800 5 2 2 4700 Wyoming. Hope is here for the gambling helpline ma.org or clayhunter 3 2 7 50 50 For 24 7 supporter, Massachusetts or call 1 8 7 7 a open Y or text open Y in New York Let's take a look now at the MLB slate for today Want to be get things off by talking about the afternoon games a couple of bets I like there then we'll talk about the nightcap as well Let you know where I'm seeing value for today over at Fandall sportsbook The first bet I like for today is actually in this game right here that is the red sox taking on the a's out in Oakland and Red Sox favored minus 152 on the money line the a's are a plus 128 not seeing a ton of value there personally Where I do see value is in the total for this game As you can see over on Fandall TV plus that is it eight runs right now Over is minus 104 and given the state of this a's bullpen I'm having a really hard time Not liking the over at that number It's really does come down to this a's bullpen their active roster bullpen has a 4.47 skill interactive era Since the start of last year, which is not the worst in baseball The white sox are actually worse than that which made me very nervous last night as I had the under in that game And the white sox money line, but it's a really bad bullpen And that means the teams can score runs the entire game Which is not always the case in major league baseball where you got some bullpens that can lock things down Keep the score suppressed That's not the case here The a's game so far there have been six of them a featured eight or more runs in all but one so pushing or better an all but one game And given the way things set up. I think that's probably not super flokey just because Again, that bullpen is really bad. It's 58 degrees in oakland for today Which is not perfect for offense. It is a slight downgrade there, but it's also Typical oakland weather. So it's a typical oakland park factor. No upgrade. No downgrade I think It's probably lower than it should be given how bad this bullpen is I don't mind either starter here nick pavetta taking on ross stripling I was on stripling strikeout over last week and that did hit Pavetta has been pitching really well ever since the red sox let him have kind of a more full leash last year Look really good in his first start this year too I just think this number is too low Given the bullpen situation For the a's so to me over eight runs for the red sox and the a's minus 104 a fan dual sportsbook I think that's the proper way to go just given how bad this a's bullpen is That's the first one for me is the a's and red sox over eight runs That game begins at uh, 338 337 p.m. Eastern Just a bit after that is the yankees and the down and backs and I think we can spin this game into a same game parlay and that does tie into a thought I had in the solo shot earlier today The strikeout prop that I liked was meryl kelly over five and a half strikeouts That is still a minus 110 a fan dual sportsbook and that's gonna be the first leg here Is kelly over five and a half strikeouts and the justification for that is laid out on the other show Is that kelly is pitching really well right now did down the stretch last year Look good in his first start this year came against the rockies So great assault there obviously but 79 pitches six and two-thirds innings eight strikeouts So super super efficient there and what he did that I liked a lot for kelly was that He was leaning on his cutter throwing fewer curveballs and then he started towards the end of last year It's now an 11 start sample and kelly doing that and 28 percent strike area for him He's had double digit strikeouts in a couple of those games So Upside is here for kelly to hit five and a half strikeouts He also does get a bump in terms of strikeouts at home Which is where he is for today taking on the Yankees So first leg is kelly over five and a half strikeouts at minus 110 But I also show value individually on the diamondbacks money line part of that is because those Those numbers I was gushing about with kelly before are Going to translate to the money line model as well Because obviously that's going to play into things for me But when I look at this game in terms of the money line My model has this being basically a toss up if it were on a neutral field and obviously the arizona has at home So when you put this game in arizona, that's going to show a lot of value In the diamondbacks win odds and again Kelly does tend to pitch better at home than he does on the road If you pair the arizona money line with the kelly strikeout prop over five and a half at minus 110 The same game probably that is plus is plus two twelve Obviously that means that fandall knows these two bets are correlated because if you had these two uncorrelated just paired them together Uh, it'd be closer to not three to one but somewhere in that range So fandall knows these two bets are correlated and you are being taxed for that But I think that correlation is worth it because again liking kelly Plays into both his strikeout department and the money line So as I assume that kelly maintains the gains he has shown with his current pitch mix and pitches as well Pitches well at home that's going to impact both of these. So because they play well together I think it does set up well for a same game parley. So what I'll do here is take the kelly Over five and a strikeouts and pair with the arizona money line. That's plus two twelve at fandall sportsbook I think that's a fair way to play things and that's where I'm going to go for today personally You got some sort of offer out there for You notice what same game parley need another leg or something. I'd be looking into the arizona batters uh facing up for against carlos rodin I'm not super enamored with him right now. So you can look at um, some Total base props and christian walker. There will be pretty enticing walker to get Two plus bases is plus 130 really don't mind that so you want to toss it in for an extra leg If you need three legs to get some sort of offer I don't mind that but for me personally is taking with just the kelly over five and a strikeouts and the arizona money line at plus Right minus 102 But walker would be the first guy to turn to in terms of uh, total bases if you need one more leg to toss into that one So for the afternoon slates liking the arizona money line minus 102 Pair with the kelly over five and a half strikeouts at minus 110 For a same game parley of plus 202 and then the red sox and ace over eight runs at fendall's sports book As far as the night games go Biggest value for me is in a spot where i'm Looking at it primarily just because of weather that is the rockies and the cubs the wriggly field And the total right now is seven and a half runs It's still at seven at a lot of other spots So fendall giving us an extra half run here to take the under that is minus 122 And i do think this is a good way to go for this one and it all does come down to weather for me because Again right now in chicago It is Going to be about 39 degrees that first pitch It was snowing earlier on might continue to snow throughout the day for today And the wind is blowing in for those of you who may be new to baseball wriggly field is as sensitive to wind or more sensitive to wind to any other park in major league baseball So when the wind is blowing in that changes things pretty dramatically from a run total expectation Obviously it's a good matchup for the the cubs uh facing cal quantrell facing that rockies bullpen Those are bull situations that are going to be conducive towards a lot of runs but to me weather matters a lot and The weather is obviously influencing this number already But i think it should go a bit more a bit further in dragging this total down So under seven and a half runs is minus 122 Cubs starting luke little but it sounds like ben brown may be the more bulk guy For the cubs today, ben brown got a pretty lively arm So excited to see what he can do I think you should be able to keep the rockies offense in check So when you add it all together primarily The cubs pitching staff paired with this rockies offense paired with the weather I think it does lend itself towards an under we could obviously the the rockies pitching staff Let up runs despite the fact the weather is not great for offense I'm going to take that risk personally so under seven and a half runs minus 122 That's the cubs and rockies for tonight a place. I'm looking at vandal sportsbook That's gonna wrap up baseball for today If you want some more thoughts did talk about a couple more things for the late games Liking a home run prop for the dodgers of the Giants game and also liking a total base prop For the Padres that game is all in the afternoon But did did find some more value there So who wants more prop thoughts? Check out the solo shot on the fan door research podcast thing feed Other thing I wanted to discuss for today is formula one formula one is in japan for this weekend interesting that in australia We finally saw some movement here as max for staff and had an early issue And that allowed carlo signs to win signs now the only guy who has won other than max for stopping across the past like I think it's 20 almost races so signs broke through there And that's obviously fluke. You don't expect for stopping to have issues very often He actually had no retirements the entirety of last year. So that's that's a pretty volatile thing The thing that's interesting though is that ferrari had speed before verstappen's issue across that weekend in australia So the question is now is can ferrari push for a win this weekend? And I kind of think they can it's very clear that ferrari is the number two team right now behind red bull mclaren Is a tier behind ferrari then it's another tier down to mercedes and then everyone else is way behind those Top four teams so essentially in my eyes at least it's four drivers fighting for the win in red bull and ferrari And sergio pares a red bull at least by my numbers is sandwiched between carlo signs and charles claire I'm not sure if they could beat max straight up But as we saw he can have issues It's not a zero percent chance and we don't know for sure that they can't beat him Especially given the pace they showed in australia and the fact that it is still pretty early in the season Looking back to australia. Obviously can't look at verstappen speed there, but Looking at pares his median lap times were actually worse than ferrari, but also worse than mclaren So verstappen is the clear favorite and that's that's for obvious reasons and it has to be the case But ferrari is plus 650 to win this race over at fangirl sportsbook and I think that's kind of enticing. Uh, that's 13.3 implied odds max first happens a retirement rate projected to be probably around like 10 So like, you know, that gets you a good chunk of the way that have to be pares as well and the mclaren's but I think 13.3 sells them a bit short right now I don't want to choose between sines and la claire. My model likes sines more but la claire is obviously crazy fast and Could go out there and win the poll on saturday So i'm going to lump them together and just take ferrari take the coward's way out and go with ferrari in general I think plus 650 is a good price and when you compare it to what other sportsbooks are offering for the ferrari to win price It's pretty generous So I will take ferrari plus 650 to win in japan this weekend Again, I don't know if they can do it if first appen is able to run the entire race, which he should But I think that volatility is being a bit undersold with this number right now The other spot where i'm showing value is in joe guanyu To finish inside the points and this this i don't know how to handle this because it's a very odd situation If you've been watching formula one so far this year, you've noticed that Kick sour the team that joe drives for it's having these awful pit stops Where the wheel will not come off and they've had it happen in at least At least once in all their races so far and that sucks because if they have a 30 second pit stop They're not going to finish in the points They clearly have not fixed this issue yet because It happened in australia and I don't know if that had fixed for this weekend so It could go very badly. They could have another poor pit stop in which case both joe and botas will be effectively Banned from finishing inside the points because of how long the pit stop would take But they've been kind of decent as far as pace goes joe finished 11th in bot rain in the opener He ran well in saudi arabia before he had a pit issue He was the victim there and again that could happen again And that's very botas could have scored points in australia But he also had the pit issue there so the speed has been fine and They had the longest top 10 odds in the entire field They're both 11 to 1 right now at vandal sportsbook Joe has been the faster driver in two out of three races. I prefer him And the model hasn't well above these implied odds But again, I have to make clear that I don't know if I've effectively modeled things given the pit stop issues. Basically what I'm doing is you put in Their projected speed and then put in a projected incident rate. I have kick sabers incident rate very high like Not quite double the entire field, but I think it's pretty close to double the entire field Because of those pit stop issues If they have not resolved those issues, I could look really stupid because why would you bet on a team that you know Could have a 30 second pit stop but The speed is there and there's always a possibility they've resolved things For this race So I think if we're going to buy into them now is the ideal then to do so again I prefer joe, but they could justify botas while at 11 to 1 I do show value there. I've got botas around 11 to finish inside the top 10 Joe is above that which is why I prefer him But if you want to go botas instead Not going to fight with you too much if you don't want to deal with this because the pit stop issues I don't blame you. I wouldn't bother. I think that's totally okay. But for me personally This is where I'm going to go So the two bets I like for formula one this weekend in japan. I like a ferrari to win a plus 650 kind of banking on some volatility right now and then joe guanyu To finish in the points 11 to 1 potentially botas 11 to 1 as well If you want to go with him instead, but just again the caveat is I have no idea if they've resolved that pit stop issue That is all that we have here for today on covering the spread as mentioned We are back once again tomorrow breaking down the final four for the men's and the women's college basketball tournaments with Dr. Red Fang to get that as it is posted make sure to subscribe to covering the spread if you like what you hear Leave us a five star rating on apple podcasters potify You can also find this show on faddle td plus and the faddle youtube page If you got any questions for me, I'm on twitter at jim sonnis You can also find a faddle research on twitter at faddle research want to thank you all for tuning in for today Good luck to you with your baseball bets across today I'll talk to you once again tomorrow to break down the final four This has been covering the spread right here on the faddle podcast network