 Welcome traders to another techno weekly market outlook for week commencing the 11th April with me Patrick Mumley heading into a holiday shortened week with most Western markets out on Friday for Good Friday and the standard Easter weekend so focus is firmly Back on geopolitical risks. Obviously the crisis in Ukraine continues to grind on and Markets are starting to in some shape or form try to look past that and focus on Economic data. There is one other geopolitical development of note this weekend France heads to the polls today Sunday for the first round of Presidential voting Barring a very surprising first round victory by one of the 12 candidates the top two candidates will then face off in the second Round coming two weeks later on Sunday, April 24th. Polls are very tight It Looks like that say second round runoff between President Macron and Marie Le Pen His main challenge will result in a modest victory for Macron. The Economist magazine gives McCorm 98 percent odds of Getting to the second round and 78 percent odds of bringing it all So moving to the data this week starting in the US Fed's speakers on Monday here from Bostick Bowman Waller At Fed listens event. We're also here from Evans to and then on Tuesday We get the March LFI be small business optimism looking for a 94.9 print versus the 95.7 last time out rising prices Are a key concern with annual inflation at 40 years highs? We also get March CPI on Tuesday and looking for that to come in hot 1.2 percent Moving on to Wednesday, we get the March CPI last time 0.8 percent looking for 1.2 percent print on going supply issues Are supporting producer prices. We also hear from Fed speaker Barkin And on Thursday We get the March retail sales in the US because 0.5 percent fuel price surges to crimp retail sales in the near term We also get March import price index looking for a 2.5 percent print versus The 1.4 percent last time out import prices are set to remain elevated We also get initial jobless claims and they are expected to remain at very low levels We get the business inventories looking for a 1.3 percent versus the 1.1 percent last time Businesses rebuilding inventory at a pretty robust price and then we get April University of Michigan Sentiment looking for a 58.8 versus the 59.4 last time out Inflation and interest rate concerns have hit confidence hard and we will hear from Fed speaker Nesta And then on Friday, we ran it out with the April Fed Empire State Index looking for a positive 2 percent print there Providing a timely update on the NY manufacturing sector. We also get March industrial production looking for 0.4 Percent this is the 0.5 percent last time volatility lingers as firms navigate supply issues And then we ran out the activity in the US on Friday when we hear from Fed speaker Harker from a technical perspective the dollar index Here's to potentially be completing an interim five-way sequence here So I'm looking as we hold the highs Just over the hundred level for a three-way corrected move now back into trust to test trend channel support Also monthly projected range resistance into the 97 30s before the commencing another leg to the upside If we take out the Prize of last week We will then look for an extension up into projected trend channel resistance at 101 level before looking for that pullback Ultimately what we're looking for now is this triangle to complete to get a test of the Projective triangle resistance at 18228 before we may see a regime shift in the dollar focusing to the downside In the eurozone from a data perspective, let's see what we've got on tap We start the week Tuesday really is April ZEW Survey of expectations the Russian-Ukraine conflict Continuing to cloud the outlook there and then on Wednesday. We get February industrial production Supply pressures are an ongoing concern and looking for a flat print there zero percent And then we round it out in the eurozone on Thursday with the all-important eCB policy decision and deposit rates market time anticipating that Remain on hold at 0.5 percent Focus on rhetoric around risks and policy normalization is going to be the key Key watch there from a technical perspective the euro dollars sitting right at Pivotal support here just above the 108 level I'm actually looking for a move to get one more extension here to the downside test into the 107 106 50 area where we have monthly projected range support from there watch for bullish Divergence to be maintained, and then we look for a three-way corrected move back into trend channel resistance on 1256 We also have the projected monthly range resistance there and the high volume node 1313 Moving to the UK a busy week in terms of data this week starting out on Monday, we get a fair trade balance data measurement change figures should normalize in february after the skew from the last print on Tuesday We get the february ilo employment rate looking for 3.8 Cent versus 3.9 percent last time out unemployment now at pre-covid levels in the uk on wednesday inflation data march cpi 0.8 percent last time out energy inflation remains a key driver in the uk with this cost of living crisis being widely experienced And that rounds out the week in terms of uk data from a technical perspective Sterling has retested the prior cycle lows here 129 80s as this trend line resistance remains intact 131 Look for a further downside move to initially test the projected pitch for Descending trend channel support any bounces as long as they're getting they're contained by this Trend channel we are looking them for a quality objective at 126 59 before We could see a more meaningful corrective move in sterling However, if we can get if we do get a close back through this trend channel resistance We could have a potential double bottom in place and that would then see us up targeting initially the pivot here at 131 80s for now under the trend line, we are looking for the downside extension In japan very likes in terms of data next week Just one reading of notes on wednesday We will get february machinery orders last time out minus 2 percent looking for minus 1.5 percent capital spending has been squeezed by the commodity and transport costs from a technical perspective The dolly yen looks like we are about to complete an interim Third wave attempt here. So i'm looking for prices to take out the prior highs We want to initially look for a test Of the 127 extension to the 161 extension of our interim Corrective move here. So we're looking for 126 14 740 area watch for bearish dive urges to develop there and we look for a three-way corrective move To ultimately find support back into the 121 121 20s Before it's the next leg to the upside Develops there in terms of the dollar yen Last but not least rounding it out down under in australia What do we have here? on Tuesday, sorry, we get the march nab business survey hospitality Should see further upside versus the hit from the severe floods in new south wales and queensons We also get march overseas arrivals for australia Gouging the border reopening pre-covid average of Negative 1.8 million per month. So we're looking for a positive print there and then on wednesday We get april w bc mi consumer sentiment last time at 96 0.6 any post budgets improvements are what analysts will be looking for there And then on thursday we round the week out with inflation expectations last time for 4.9 percent Will falling petrol prices lead to a decline in expectations. We also get march employment change looking for a 30 handle there Weekly payrolls suggest employment continue to expand through the extreme weather events on the east coast May have had some impact, but the employment rate should come in lower than the 4 percent print last time at 3.9 percent From a technical perspective, the australian dollar has broken through its descending weekly trend line resistance So i'm looking for any three-way corrected moves now back in to test that trend line Broken trend line resistance to active support. We also have the trend channel projected support coming in So 73 50 73 60s we look for bullish reversal patterns to engage on the long side looking for a move up to test the 77 60s to 77 90s This stage only a closing loss of this trend channel support Which suggests we may have a more meaningful high end place in terms of the Aussie dollar And that concludes the weekly market outlook for week commencing the 11th of april As always trade us plan the trade trade the plan and most importantly manage your bliss until next time. Thanks very much