 Hey everyone, this is Dan with another episode of my Moderna and BioNTech videos I published a video a few days ago on November 9th to cover the fundamental analysis of Moderna and BioNTech. In that video I updated my price targets for the two stocks based on recent quarterly reports from the two companies. In this video I will take a look of technical analysis and I will look at the charts for the two companies to talk about my short-term trading strategies. Let's get into the details. First of all let's review the price targets I said in my last video on November 9th 2021. This is a screenshot of the video. If you'd like to see the details please go to that particular video. The link of that video is also provided below this video in my channel. My short-term price target for Moderna is $270 for BioNTech for $300 to be reached by the end of January 2022 which is about two months from now. When I published the video the Moderna closing price was at $236 and BioNTech at $216. Since then Moderna dropped a little bit to $235 as a market closing on November 15 yesterday BioNTech actually went up to $250. For my long-range targets I set Moderna to be at $300 a share and BioNTech at $400 a share to be reached by the end of November 2022 about a year from now. Please refer to my November 9th video for the details. There are quite a few vaccines now available. They have all different levels of approvals for the primary shots and for booster shots. It might be confusing therefore I've summarized the leading vaccines in this table. First of all the Pfizer BioNTech vaccine is a two-shot vaccine. It has been approved in the USA for people who are five years of age and older and for EU also approved for people five years of age and older. As far as booster shots the US approved for people 65 and older but then I have two footnotes here. The first foot note is that the booster shot is also approved for people who are immunity compromised and for high-risk people such as hospital workers and then a second footnote is that the booster shot can be provided for people who receive the primary shots from Johnson & Johnson Moderna or Pfizer BioNTech that means people can mix the vaccines when they receive the booster shots. For EU the booster shot is approved for people who are 18 years of age and older again footnote number one below applies. For Moderna the primary shots the two shots have been approved in the US for people who are 18 and older and EU for people 12 and older. Booster shots for Moderna in the US is for 65 and older and for EU people who are 18 and older. For Johnson & Johnson it's a one shot vaccine. The primary shot has been approved in the US for people who are 18 and older and EU the same 18 and older and for booster shot for people who are 18 and older. Again footnote number two here applies that means people who received Johnson & Johnson vaccine previously can now receive the booster shot from Moderna or BioNTech. Actually from what I heard a lot of people are switching because Johnson & Johnson vaccine is supposed to be not as effective as the BioNTech or Moderna vaccine and then as for AstraZeneca it's a two shot vaccine it has never been approved in the US in Europe it's approved for people who are 18 and older at this point I haven't read about anything about booster shot for the AstraZeneca vaccine. If you look at this table you can see that the Pfizer BioNTech vaccine has a much larger population that's being approved by US and EU it goes all the way down to people who are five years old and that's why the BioNTech vaccine now has a leading edge compared to the other vaccines and that's one of the reasons why I'm very bullish about BioNTech. If you like what you've seen so far I'd like to encourage you to click the like subscribe and notification button this will enable you to receive notification when I publish my next video it'll also encourage me to create more videos like this in the future thank you very much let's continue we have a lot to cover this is what the CDC has published about mixing the vaccines for booster shots it was published on November 3rd 2021 there's a new vaccine called OcuGen it's in the process of seeking approval from Europe for people age 2 to 18 and also they're seeking approval from the FDA it's an inactivated virus vaccine which is different from the mRNA vaccines offered by Moderna and BioNTech so far OcuGen has already received authorization in 17 countries and by the World Health Organization. Interestingly OcuGen is not asking for authorization for use in adults they are only applying for approval for use on children and adolescents I'll be definitely monitoring the development of this particular vaccine very carefully OcuGen is supposed to be 93.4% effective against severe illness Novavax we talked about that previously they receive the approval from the Indonesian government and that's a very first approval they have received in the world and maybe they will receive more approvals later on that's also a very important development Novavax it's a subunit protein vaccine different from the mRNA vaccine and different from the inactivated virus vaccine and it's supposed to be a hundred percent effective against severe illness again I will be monitoring the development of Novavax very carefully in the near future let's look at a different COVID treatments that being announced so far the recently very well-known Pfizer pill is supposed to be 90% effective against death or hospitalization it comes in a form of pills we don't know the price yet and it has yet to be approved by the US or the EU the Merck COVID pills are supposed to be 50% effective the price is about $700 per treatment it has already been approved by the UK and then the Regeneron COVID treatment which is administered by injection is supposed to be 71% effective the price is about $1,250 per treatment and it's being approved by the US EU and UK as for the Eli Lilly treatment again it's an injection it's supposed to be 87% effective the price is about $1,250 and it's being approved by the US it's nice that we have these COVID treatments now but I don't think there will be real competitions against the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines because most countries will still select to purchase the vaccines and provide the vaccines to their citizens instead of relying on the COVID treatment although if you look at it this way if a country has the Moderna BioNTech vaccine which are already 90 percent effective and in addition to that they use for example the Pfizer pill as the second line of defense so it's 90 percent on top of 90 percent they will probably reach around 98 99% effectiveness against death of hospitalization and that will be a very strong defense for a very rich and well-developed nation I think that's the strategy the governments such as UK EU and the US will choose rather than just relying on the treatment and that's why the COVID vaccines will still be continued to be needed by different countries in the world recently Moderna has been encountering some headwind there are several countries that have restricted the use of Moderna vaccine on males age 30 or younger because of supposedly increased risk of myocarditis and pericarditis those are heart information conditions what are these countries they are Sweden Denmark Finland Norway France and Germany Moderna is defending their position rigorously and looks like they have some pretty good scientific data to back themselves up let's hope for the best Moderna but for now the price is definitely taking a beating and that's why I've been selling a lot of my Moderna shares lately I'll talk more about that later on this is what the Newswire Benzinga published about the position of Moderna with regard to this issue the chief medical officer of Moderna Dr. Paul Burton cited data that in France for males ages 12 to 29 it showed that 13.3 people out of 100,000 had myocarditis from Moderna's vaccine compared to only 2.7 cases for the Pfizer vaccine so they admitted that Moderna does have a slightly higher risk of people getting myocarditis but 13.3 out of 100,000 that's a very low percentage and as far as I know my condition is mostly treatable with traditional treatment protocols Dr. Burton also said that the CDC data indicate the rates of mild or severe disease were lower in Moderna recipients than those who receive Pfizer's or Johnson and Johnson vaccines so we have the advantage of using the Moderna vaccine on the one hand and some disadvantages of using the Moderna vaccine on younger males on the other hand overall Moderna is arguing that it's a wash let's hope the public will be convinced of that and so that the stock price of Moderna will recover soon I'm not a medical professional but this is pretty convincing argument to me I don't think Moderna really poses any serious risk to humanity and actually the benefit definitely always the risk let's go over the charts this is a daily chart for Moderna as you can see after Moderna reach its all-time high is drop a level try to recover then a drop and then a drop again this is bad news really at this point since about the beginning of November it has gone pretty much flat it's critical for Moderna to continue to be supported at this level of about 210 230 and hopefully when does settle then it'll start to recover if it drops any further that'll be a very bearish sign and that's the time when I will be selling even more shares at this point already so about three quarters of my original Moderna shares because of the adverse news developments and because of the technical trends and I've shared that information by way of my Twitter account if you look at the different indicators RSI reached an overboard situation here and sure enough the price started to go down and since then RSI has continued drop at this point you might say it's oversold but then the public will have to react to that and hopefully you can see a recovery with the stock price for the DMI it turned bearish ever since the beginning of October and it's still bearish for MACD it turned bearish in the beginning of October and that turned bullish very shortly for just a few days and then it turned bearish again in the beginning of November overall it's a very bearish picture if you look at the hourly chart for Moderna in the last six days it's been pretty much going flat the good thing is that it seems to be getting support at about 210 220 level but the bad thing is that it's not getting any higher let's hope that the price will recover soon and then Moderna management can convince the world that the myocarditis and pericarditis situations are not nearly as bad as people think here we have an oversold situation and sure enough the price bounced a little bit but not much and then for DMI actually turned bullish slightly as of yesterday and MACD turned bullish about five six days ago since then has been going between bullish and bearish and pretty much in a neutral state overall the hourly chart is not bullish yet it's just going flat what are the support and resistance levels if you look at this chart which I also drew in my technical analysis from Moderna about two weeks ago pretty much same chart as you can see in the last couple weeks it fell through another two three support levels that's why I've been selling Moderna shares when it dropped like this here it triggered some of my trailing stop quote limit orders and I sold more shares and I shared that information by way of my Twitter account at this point it's trying to bounce up but it's not going anywhere yet for the Fibonacci retracement diagram I picked this point in the beginning of May as a minimum point and I picked this closing price in the beginning of August as the maximum point I like to draw my Fibonacci retracement diagram so that the different levels can be validated by historical price levels and sure enough this particular diagram is indeed validated by different price levels that's why I'm feel comfortable using this diagram for support level the next level support is that 221 which is this line Fibonacci 78% I like to mention that Fibonacci retracement is a good diagram to use but its influence on a stock price is usually not as strong as the Boling Japan or as the simple running averages for example the 20-day running average or the 50-day or the 100 or 200 days simple moving averages nevertheless when the price hit this line three days ago sure enough it's got support and started to bounce up and the next level of support will be the lower Boling Japan around here $192 a share and the next level support will be Fibonacci 100% at $150 if the price drops below any one of these support points that'll be a very very sign that's when I will sell even more shares of Moderna then I will wait for the price to recover at a lower level before I buy in again that's how I usually do my swing trading for resistance levels the next level up would be 253 this red dash line here which is a 200 days simple moving average and the next level of resistance will be at 277 this line here Fibonacci 61% and the next level of resistance will be at 298 the 20 days simple moving average that'll be a strong resistance that's the middle of the Boling Japan and the next level up will be 317 which is Fibonacci 50% this line let's look at BioNTech this is the daily chart for BioNTech it peaked in the beginning of August and then it continued to drop actually we can see this trend line here this is certainly a bearish picture although it's not as bearish as Moderna's chart the price did try to break through in the beginning of November unfortunately then it was followed by the announcement of the FISA pill on November 5th so the price collapsed and dropped even more and since then it started to recover slowly for RSI we saw this overboard situation here and sure enough that's when the price started dropping and then for DMI most recently it's still bearish MACD also bearish ever since five six days ago now if you look at the hourly chart that's when we can see a little bit of bullet sign because from the hourly chart you can see this triangular pattern up until two three days ago that pattern actually lasted for one two three four five days and then at the tip of the triangle the price started to break upwards which is the bullet sign and that's when I decided to buy BioNTech shares if you look at RSI at this point it's a little bit overboard so the price might go sideways or maybe even drift down a little bit for the next hours for the next few hours but overall is still a fairly bullish trend for the short term from hourly basis for DMI actually term bullish about two days ago for MACD is slightly bullish ever since about they didn't have two days ago overall BioNTech seems to be a little bit more bullish than Moderna and that's why after I sold both BioNTech and Moderna shares a few days ago I started to buy back some shares of BioNTech let's look at the support and resistance levels I drew this Fibonacci retracement diagram by using the minimum point around the beginning of July here and then the maximum point at this all-time high level for the closing price for the next level of support I see that at 226 which is a 200 days simple moving average the red dash line here and that'll be a pretty strong support and then the next level down which is very close to the 200 simple moving average will be the lower Bollinger band at 215 so the price will be getting pretty strong support right around 215 and 225 and then the next level support will be 206 Fibonacci 100% again let's hope the prices and fall below 206 if it falls below 206 that'll be very bearish and that's when I will be dumping a lot of my BioNTech shares for the short term for resistance the next level up will be at 256 which is the Fibonacci 78.6% this line here actually if you see these historical points that's when the resistance prevailed and the price basically had to linger below that line for seven eight days before it broke through that's why it's going to be another very tough resistance level and then the next level up will be 265 which is a 20 days simple moving average in the middle of the Bollinger band here the blue line and then the next level up will be 282 the 50 days simple moving average the blue dash line and the next level up will be 297 the 100 days simple moving average the yellow dash line here what are my strategies first of all I've been holding some Moderna and BioNTech shares for the long term at this point I'm holding very few Moderna shares because of the bearish news and the bearish chart lately related to Moderna unfortunately but I'm holding a lot of BioNTech shares and I'll be shrink trading some of the shares for the short term I bought BioNTech shares on November 8th and November 15th when I started to see the price recovering and when I look at the fundamental strength of BioNTech and before that I saw BioNTech and Moderna shares when the prices started to drop below several critical support levels according to my charts in general I will sell when the price fails to get support and major support level like what happened in the last few weeks or when the price pulls back at a major resistance level or when adverse news developed and that's exactly what happened to Moderna and BioNTech in the last few weeks I will buy when the price bounces back from a major support level or when positive news developed and I saw the price of BioNTech bounces back from the support level that we look at a few seconds ago here lower Bollinger Band and that's why I decided to buy let's get back to the slide and I'll be mindful of the broad market and any news related to the two companies I will update my subscribers by way of my Twitter account I like to remind you to subscribe to my Twitter account which is DanmarketL in addition to subscribing to my YouTube channel for example on November 5th I said quite a few of my stop-call limit orders were triggered therefore I saw some shares of BioNTech also I saw shares of Moderna pretty much around those days when the prices were dropping and then on November 10th I sold more Moderna shares and because of the news that French health authority advises against Moderna COVID-19 vaccine for under 30s and that's definitely very bad news for Moderna and then on November 10th on the same day more stop orders were triggered I sold actually the whole market was dropping a little bit therefore I sold shares of ASML, Qualcomm, TEEQQ, TSM, AMD and LUV to lock in my profits the market actually went up for a few days and it started to drop that's why I sold these shares to lock in my profits and then on November 15th yesterday I bought more BioNTech shares I just checked the BioNTech stock I bought yesterday it has gone up by 7% already if you like what you've seen so far again I'd like to encourage you to click the like subscribe and notification button as usual I will very much appreciate your comments questions and suggestions at this point like to remind you that I'm not a financial advisor I share my stocks trading strategies and analyses for educational purpose only if you want to buy or sell stocks you should definitely make your own decisions and you should consult with your financial advisors before you do so this about wraps up my video for now I will chat with you again in the next few days in the meanwhile I'd like to wish you the very best of luck with your financial investments