 Welcome to Tick Mill weekly market outlook for week menacing the 23rd of March with me, Patrick Mundley. So the markets will continue to react to reports on the spread of coronavirus. The news flow to date has been overwhelmingly negative since the crisis began. The situation is extremely fluid and estimating the impact on the global economy is difficult as major countries continue to implement and or consider complete lockdowns to slow the spread. We can news reports suggest that US lawmakers are racing to agree a massive coronavirus relief package that is expected to be in excess of $1 trillion and possibly as large as $1.4 trillion. Major central banks continue to try and keep credit flowing but are having trouble keeping up with increasing funding stresses, especially US dollar funding shortages. On Friday the Fed increased the frequency of US dollar swap line operations with other major central banks, a move that at least temporarily relieves stress in the funding markets. Traders across all asset markets will be closely monitoring credit indicators to see if the stress is being relieved or increasing. High frequency and forward looking data will have a much greater impact on markets in the coming weeks as everyone tries to gauge just how damaging the coronavirus has been to the global economy. Flash March PMI readings from Europe, the US and UK will provide a glimpse of the early impact in the week ahead. If China's February PMI data is anything to go by the readings from the major Western economies won't be pretty. Specifically in the US, data this week includes Q4 GDP, February a new home sales, jewel goods and PCE but they won't capture the economic impact of coronavirus. Final University of Michigan sentiment for March released on Friday will be more significant for it will be a more high frequency read suggesting some impact of coronavirus. From the technical perspective the dollar index continues to develop in a bullish sequence as we hold support at the 10107 level. I'm looking for a move through the 10350 to test the prior cycle highs and run stops towards 104. From here there is the potential for a more significant correction and certainly back down to test maybe as deep as the 100 psychological level and the prior breakouts at 9990. Once again as we test these areas I will be looking for buyers to step in as we continue to see support for the safe haven US dollar and ultimately I would see a retest of wherever we put in our cycle high this week between 10350 and 104. So remain bullish the dollar with the potential for a correction in the coming sessions. While we check in with the dollar let's take a look at gold. Gold has put in a reaction low here as you can see from the charts with this double bottom on the four hour charts I'm using this week. What I'm anticipating now is that we test up into range resistance at the 1550 area. I'd be looking for sellers to re-emerge here and ultimately I see us trading lower taking out this double bottom probably testing down to the 1440 area. In Europe the German EFO for March will also give a reading on sentiment since the coronavirus crisis began as will Eurozone flash March consumer confidence. All of these all of these readings are expected to start to see the impact of the coronavirus so what I'll be looking for technically here with the euro if we can stabilize versus the lows seen towards the back end of last week. I've been looking for a pop-up into this 10750 108 area. Once again I'd be expecting sellers to step in and I will anticipate we see new lows testing that 10550 pivot confidence highlighted in last Thursday's market strategy session. From there I think we could see a more sustained correction broadly in line with the dollar index correction I've just highlighted. I think we could test up to 10950 maybe 110 but certainly then I'd be expecting sellers to re-emerge. In the UK main data next week is really going to be inflation of retail sales for February. Again starting to see some of the pre coronavirus impact come through the data. What I'm looking for from a technical perspective in the sterling is a pop-up here beginning of the week. Maybe test 118 again but whilst we hold 11940 resistance I'm looking for another low in sterling probably to test this 112 area. Again in line with this idea of a correction playing out we could then see a more sustained corrective move probably testing the 121 maybe 122 area. But again from here I am expecting sellers to re-emerge and I ultimately see us making new cycle lows and I have a target down, an initial target down at this 110 area that I'd be looking to get tested as we hold 121, 122 as resistance. So looking for bearish key reversal patterns on the daily chart. In Japan and the main readings next week that we're going to be watching are the flash manufacturing PMI in Tokyo March CPI. However headwinds to growth continues to map the spread of coronavirus in Japan has been somewhat subdued from a technical perspective. Looking for a pullback here early in the week to retest 10850 as support as we find support there. I'm looking for a move up to 11250, 11350 even but from there I'd be looking for a more sustained pullback and we could see prices testing down pretty quickly back towards this 108650 area. So as 10850 acts of support potential to get in on the long side there test this 11250, 11350 but from there certainly be watching for bearish daily reversal patterns to set new short positions for another leg lower here in the dollar yet. In the Australian dollar from the Australian economic perspective March PMI's manufacturing services will really get the markets attention this week from a technical perspective. I'm looking for the Australian dollar to consolidate against the near term low on Friday at this 15730 area pop up maybe retest this resistance zone at 15970. But once again in line with that dollar view I'm looking for another leg lower here certainly a retest of last week's loans at the 55 cents area maybe down into that mid 54 area. Before again we could witness a more sustained recovery in the Australian dollar. In Canada next week there's only one macro release on tap for the Canadian economy and it's not really a showstopper. Whole sale trade will be released on Monday nevertheless. It counts for about 120th of the economy and will complete the round of releases necessary to firm up January GDP growth estimates. However obviously the Bank of Canada has recently cut rates significantly and are applying additional fiscal stimulus so I don't expect the data to have really any too much of an impact on the Canadian dollar. What I'm looking for with Canadian dollar is some consolidation early in the week as we hold the 140-145 area as support. I'm looking for another leg higher in the Canadian dollar. Ultimately I think we retest this 14665 and probably take that out and build in some negative divergence using momentum studies to then see a more sustained corrective pullback. I guess the takeaway from this report is that what we're looking for is some support in the dollar as we pull back maybe Asian open and then another leg higher to develop throughout the week in the dollar and that will have implications for all the dollar majors. Ok that concludes the weekly market outlook for we commencing the 23rd of March.