 This is covering the spread here are your hosts Jim Saunas and Dr. Ed Fang What is going on everybody welcome on into covering the spread right here on the fan duel Podcast network and number fire comm my name is Jim Saunas I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire comm joined here as always by Dr. Ed Fang of the power rank comm you can find Ed on Twitter at the power rank Ed Preseason football is back. We're recording this on Thursday. I get to watch all of the best quarterbacks like Cody Kessler and Clayton Thorson They're all gonna be in action potentially tonight. So it is Geno Smith Like this is my time of year. We're all the bad quarterbacks that I like for absolutely no reason play I am great because of this, but how are you? I'm great Well, I mean you get to see your Northwest and boy Clayton Thorson and I'm not gonna see her in the regular season So I got to watch now Ed. What about what about Simeon? He might get some time. Yeah, I would not I don't think I don't think Donald's gonna play a whole lot tonight. So I can see touchdown Trevor His official name in all fan duel podcast network Podcasts is touchdown Trevor or Tutty Trev? Nothing else will be recognized. Okay, sounds good. And the man has won a starting NFL job I mean probably not gonna happen this year Absolutely, but he was the man. That is that is something to be happy about Anything you are excited to watch in preseason not from like a betting perspective. It's like from an NFL fan perspective Is there something that interests you during the preseason? Yeah, I mean, I got all kinds of questions, right? Like can anyone play defense on the Indianapolis Colts? What what is going on with Kansas City's defense? You know, I mean a lot of issues on the defense side of the ball for with a lot of teams and Yeah, so those types of things, right? Like I mean you look at some of these Super Bowl contenders and obviously you're not gonna get the startups are too much But you know, how much could rookies kind of come in and help them? So those are the type of things that I look for you watch it for real stuff I watch for DFS and for the terrible players who I like for some reason And I don't get to watch them during the regular season. So I'm gonna watch them now You know Smith time is now and I am very excited and was talking about the Super Bowl teams We broke down some Super Bowl teams earlier this week with whale capper You can find that on the covering the spread podcast feed on spotify apple podcast Soundcloud wherever you get your podcasts find that there make sure you subscribe Rate and review the podcast as well because ratings reviews help us out a ton especially as we gear up for NFL season college football and NFL shows coming weekly once we get to the start of those respective seasons So your ratings and reviews now are oh so greatly appreciated coming up later today We're talking to Gil Alexander and you can find Gil on Twitter at beating the book He is a host on vson and he hosts a numbers game Which is a show that airs on vson from 10 to noon eastern every weekday He's also the host of the beating the book podcast and we're to talk with Gil about some NFL teams with low expectations this year But also maybe the expectations are not low enough at any teams for you Where you are superbly pessimistic entering this year Well, I mean, so that's kind of not my approach gym Like I'm trying to find teams that everyone's low on that I think could be a little bit better again You want to find the regression to the mean the question of the mean I'm But you know, we'll see what Gil says about these teams and gills just been such an institution in terms of Talking about sports and sports betting for so long. He's been doing as NFL mega pod for for years One of the first people in the podcasting game So just really excited to talk to him and get his insights and we'll talk to Gill in just one second before that If you want to get in on the action check out the fan dual sports book and place your first bet today If you lose fan dual will get you a refund of up to $500 in site credit visit sports book fan dual com for more details Terms and conditions apply must be 21 plus and physically present in New Jersey or Pennsylvania Gambling problem call 1-800 Gambler today coming up next Gil Alexander follow him on Twitter at beating the book talking NFL futures on some teams with some bleak outlooks for 2019 Covering the present Let's bring in Gil Alexander of the s. I and he is the host of a numbers game on vs I and from 10 to noon eastern time each day gill You're a busy guy all year round, but I'm sure especially busy this time of year So I want to thank you for coming on and how is your summer going so far? Summer's going great Do the radio show every day at Veeson and I've been betting Volumes on multiple sports every day. So it's a good life. Just got back from a vacation I have nothing to complain about is basically what I'm saying. Thank you both for having me on the show Absolutely, we want to thank you for coming on and there are there are worse activities to have to do During the summer and the main subject we want to talk to you about for today Gil was going through some interesting teams for NFL for this year teams that have gotten a lot of buzz but maybe not Positive buzz a lot of negative buzz. We're gonna talk about in a second But first I want to get a more broad view from you when it comes to betting on football This time of year because there are a lot of different markets You can enter and you can look at Super Bowl markets You can look at win totals. You can look at player props Is there a preferred market for you in August that you like to bet on? You know it with football. It's an interesting question because I've I've said to people for several football seasons that If I never placed one against the spread bet in football for the entire season It's not like I wouldn't be doing other things that would occupy all my time and I'm talking about Fantasy I was involved in something sort of off the grid that was more of like a stock market football thing where you buy and sell teams Obviously, there's big handicapping contest here in Las Vegas like the new one at Circa They used to be the super contest for so many years And so you're involved in all these different things and so when I think about Markets like futures and season win totals. It's almost primitive to me, you know, not to not to sound so evolved about it But futures don't really interest me generally speaking much at all. Although I will say that I did place NFC East bets on the Eagles and Cowboys when they were both on when they were both in plus money Because I figure with the Giants and Redskins, there's no way I'm losing that Those have moved since but at that time it was like that With season wins. I will say that the the only season win total bets I made were three unders I tend to as I get older become more curmudgeonly and bet against human achievement And so I am under on a few teams and I vote I've even alternate totaled their unders as well Circa here in town to give them another shout I'm sure there's other places that do it, but I know in town here in Las Vegas They're the ones that give alternate season win totals So you can even get some stuff at an even more aggressive price and plus money. So That's what I've done so far You know, there's a lot of interesting teams heading into the 2019 NFL season One of them is the Oakland Raiders. They'll be on hard knocks this year a lot of roster changes from a team That did not win many games last year the wind totals at six and a half at the fan dual sports book What do you think about this team? That's one of the teams I went under on and in fact, I went alternate season when total under on them I want to say what's their total let now Six I might have done a five and I get them mixed up with the Giants and the Redskins So I'm sure we'll talk about which are my other two, but with the Raiders You mentioned they're on hard knocks. They aired the first episode of hard knocks And I don't want to read too much into a show like that I didn't think the season premiere was that entertaining by the way I think the Browns set such an amazing standard of entertainment last year that anything else will pale in comparison But you do try to glean some nuggets from hard knocks and I don't know if this was confirmation bias on my part because as a Guy who grew up on Joe Gibbs Redskins teams in DC Joe Gibbs left the game of football for 11 years before he came back and what I like to refer to as four seasons of Joe Gibbs 2.0 and Joe Gibbs who had won three Super Bowls The game had really passed him by when he came back the Redskins got to the playoffs two out of four years But they did so almost with smoke and mirrors They did with late season runs both times, but Gibbs didn't really get replay Greg Williams Was the defensive coordinator at the time had to sort of explain it to him while the game was going on and their stories about Gibbs in like 2003 showing his team Schemes from Mark Rippon's 1991 Redskins So it was this big gap that he had to sort of make up for it And here you have John Gruden with the Raiders getting to the point of the Raiders John Gruden who was not in my opinion Half the coach that Joe Gibbs was and I'm being kind by saying half He won a Super Bowl, but he did it essentially with other other People's players in Tampa. Um, I am not a huge Gruden fan I don't buy the act so much for me and I just really wonder You know pro football is a coaching medium and organizations are dysfunctional from the top and you know I'm still the Galio Mac trade is the is the original sin and everything from there has flowed I don't buy this team. I'm not sure if Antonio Brown is about You know, this is just me sort of now There's no there's no basis in this in numbers Antonio Brown might be the best wide receiver in the NFL But I'm not so sure he's a guy who's ever been in a situation like this And I'm not sure how he's gonna handle it with with losing like this. I'm not bullish on the Raiders. I went under on them Interesting. Let me just jump in here real quick because so here. Let me play devil's advocate I mean, I definitely get all the franchise Issues and in the drama But you know Derek Carr actually had a you know a career high in terms of completion percentage last year Their offensive line was a wreck So what did they do they got the ball out quick, which is what I think they want to do to scheme You know, some of their efficiency numbers looked a Lot better than their total either the record or how many points they're scored and They obviously brought in a lot of talent on both sides of the ball Antonio Brown They try to show up the the offensive line a little bit with the trend Brown signing Got a lot of players on defense and have three first-round picks. So I Think most people would think that this is a more talented roster than last year Does that do anything to to suede your opinion on this team? Here would be my point counter points to that Let's just do you know, and I don't want to get in, you know I know that if you go through wins losses in a schedule, that's always a an exercise filled with pitfalls However, if we do that with the Raiders Even if you a lot them a win at home game against Denver opening game Let's say they get a win there and they start with the W here are your next slate of games for the Oakland Raiders this year It's the old schedule does not do them any favors home, Kansas City at Minnesota at Indianapolis Home Chicago and there's your buy so that's a Really tough way to start before your buy week and one in four is Very not I mean is really not out of the question you come back from the buy And it's at Green Bay and at Houston right out of the shoot is there too So I guess what I'm saying is if they had a more a more kind Schedule that would allow them to ramp up slowly Maybe I would view it differently to your point-ed because I do think that it's valid with the talent But man, I can see this team just getting out to a dreadful start and that's one of these cultures that you know, I think Under John Gruden, which looks a little lax again If you sort of view what we're seeing on hard knocks One in six can become far worse very quickly and by the way that one in six still doesn't involve a second chiefs game Two games against the Chargers a game against the Rams that are to follow So this could spiral miserably and that's why I go under on them quite confidently And there's there's still some issues up front, you know, they did know, you know I'd mentioned the Trent Brown sign in but Colton Miller a very athletic guy Didn't look that great last year. He's still there left tackle gave Jackson went down in practice today And it didn't look good based on the initial reports obviously very preliminary there But tough stuff there for sure for the Raiders. So I think that I get this and you know It does matter the way a team starts I think that we talked to the whalecapper about when you want to enter a market if you want to bet the under on the Raiders You got to do it now. You got to do it now Because that's what that's when it's hard for them, right? There's a perhaps there's a group of games in the middle of the season Listen to the markets thing that I referred to initially on the show That was all I used to do in terms of schedule analysis was getting in and out of teams based on the flow of schedule and You know as much as it's talked about in the mainstream media It's not talked about enough in the way that they assess strength of schedules very lazy, right? It's about wind percentage from last year, but once the season starts they never talk about it again It's a very right sort of strange thing. So yeah, I agree with what whalecapper had to say about that This would be the time to immediately jump in on fading a team like the Raiders So let's move now to the Giants and they've caught a lot of flak Justifiably for their handling of the quarterback position given how important it is and given the struggles Eli Manning has had and Vandalsports book has their win total at six the over is plus 125 there Do you see any value in either direction on the Giants at six wins? Um, yeah, I mean again, I I lean under and that's not going to be a you know a shocking pick for people but First of all, we start I guess we started quarterback where if i'm not mistaken elie Manning is playing his five billion season in the national football He has two super bowl rings gill Yeah, two super bowl rings all a favor two super bowl rings Argument that where uh, he's got to be judged by history with those two things Yeah with two of the most iconic passes ever to tyree and manningham. I get it, but Man, I don't know if he can throw the ball downfield anymore I have no confidence in whatsoever and the real issue with the Giants, of course is Why I'd receive her. I don't know what I don't know what happened to this franchise two years ago They had a miserable season last year last you know, here's the thing about the Giants There is a prism through which you can look at them last year and say to yourself They were a very unlucky team as well to have had as miserable a record as they did because they were on the Wrong end of most one-score games Um, I believe don't hold me to this part, but I believe there was some turnover poor luck as well I'm not as confident about that one, but certainly the one-score games thing is true But there was a point last year where you thought to yourself. Okay. Well, they got all these free agents on defense They still had odell beckham jr. Sayclon barkley could be a generational talent in the backfield Maybe the Giants actually outfoxed everybody and actually by by not drafting a quarterback and now here we are fast forward and Good lord if they didn't have gold tate. I mean everybody else is shelved You won't you won't even know any of the names of the wide receivers and If you're the only weapon on offense that I get people are drafting sayclon barkley first in fantasy And I'm not going to tell them not to but at some point if you're the only one that anybody's concerned with offense Can you really be that effective? I don't know and all of those free agents not all of them But most of those free agents on defense are gone And you got guys like landon collins who they just let go to washington his team that he loved when he was a kid that he Wanted to play for he's got a you know a vendetta against the Giants Vernon on down the list I just don't think there's while you say while you make the claim for the raiders and I think correctly so that their Talent is better. I don't see how you look at the the Giants team and think their talent is nearly as good as it was all right Yeah, absolutely. I mean they lost so many guys and um Livia Vernon on the defensive side of the ball and who's gonna who's gonna pass rush who's gonna rush the pasture for them It was gonna run the pasture and once again, you know, again, you look at You look at schedule. It's not nearly as difficult as what I just talked about with the raiders But man, I mean How many how many games when you look at a new york giant schedule and again this exercise is bereft with pitfalls I get it We don't really know like, you know midway through the season. What's winnable and what's not But when you look early on You know the every game that you look at you're like, well, I don't know if the Giants There's no locks in other words There's no game like with the patriots or with the chiefs or with the league Obviously where you can say well, that's a win. That's a win with the Giants. You just don't know You don't know if they're going to even be competitive. My whole thing with them This pre-season is we're gonna see a lot of we're recording this podcast right before the first pre-season games What if Daniel Jones is good? like Could you There's controversy as well on top of all of this. Like I think I'm almost rooting for that outcome to see the mayhem in new york Yeah, that's a big if I do. I would like to say that Dave Gettleman can't quite lose his job yet because he is the one man that unifies the football analytics on twitter like no other Person in his hatred and disdain for analytics. So, you know, if we could keep him around in other two seasons Let him have another draft To do something funny. I think that would be very interesting Gil let's move on to the washington redskins and get your unbiased opinion on this team Amiguitia quarterback with dwayne haskins case keenham and and colt mccoy What's your read on this team a win total at six with the over at minus 120 at the fandom sportsbook Well last year it was the written total was seven and I famously said on my show all year Despite the fact that they got out to a good start. I was like they are so seven that seven never changed before the season I'm like, trust me that team is at seven and nine as it gets and they actually landed on seven this year I'm saying they're so six and I really do think that season win total is right on You know, they have the three quarterbacks You mentioned alex smith is not going to be able to play this year colt mccoy coming off injury and post injury infections and multiple surgeries Case keenham over from the broncos dwayne haskins the The latest of daniel sniders desperate attempts to have a best friend as a young quarterback on the redskins And my thing is with the skins is like they have the best Maybe the best backup quarterback situation in the nfl Which means that you really have nothing at the same time Although I will say this whenever you say colt mccoy's name people sort of snicker Like a sort of a reflex and I have to tell you colt mccoy has never done anything wrong in a redskin uniform But actually be a competent quarterback. That is sort of the one thing that people Under rate about him is that he has actually had big wins with the redskins It's just that he can't stay on the field, right? Whether it's dead arm at texas in the biggest game of his career Whether it's getting smacked on the thursday night when he was with the browns and then the horrible leg injury with the redskins So I think you know, look, I think eventually dwayne haskins starts Case keenham is probably in at some point But I do have a hunch that colt mccoy starts the season the issue with the redskins No news flash here is that You you side adrian peterson again You rightfully have a lot of hope in derrius geist samajie p right actually is the guy who's been getting the most juiced during training camp He's very excited, you know, they're very excited about him But you know, we live speaking about analytics ed Whether it's warren sharp whether it's erin shots You name the football analytics guy whether it's ed fang This is a passing league and the redskins have personnel that favors just the opposite It's sort of what the vikings experience when they had adrian peterson late in his career there Or more aptly when perhaps he went to the cardinals in the states. It's like well Now we sort of have to incorporate him more than we might otherwise want to although I don't think the redskins are in on that right. I don't think they get that They actually are run first and so I think their problems offensively start with the fact that You talk about the giants having no wide receivers. I mean name three redskins wide receivers average football fan I don't think you can They're also they're undraftable in fantasy like there's There was a bookmaker in las vegas who was making player props and he said they were the one team I couldn't come up with any props for So that says a lot So and here's the big thing and the big sort of under the radar because people don't like to talk about offensive linemen a lot but to me The under on the redskins Is really driven home if they end up trading trend williams Trent williams is a borderline if not If not in the hall of fame left tackle And he is like so many with the redskins. He's become very upset with the way the medical staff has treated him He had something on his head That's something on his scalp that was misdiagnosed by the redskins Medical staff. It's not the first time there's been a misdiagnosis. He's really upset about it People think maybe it's a contract negotiation ploy that he never wants to play for them again I might have to take him for it for him at his word. By the way, if he ends up in new england, forget about it But I think I think if the redskins lose him and you're a run-based team on offense God help the washii redskins. Now. Here's the thing their defense is actually pretty competent As they try to mimic an all alabama defense, right? They draft as many alabama acquire as many former alabama players as possible sort of in a jokey kind of way But I think they'll keep enough teams to around 17 20 points that every once in a while they'll be able to win a football game But would I make a bet on them right now at season one total of six? I would not But if Trent Williams goes and that line doesn't change. I absolutely would go under on the redskins Well gill to back you up there They've had Gains in the past or Trent Williams hasn't played and but the thing was they had tyne seckey who was competent He was a very good swing, you know swing tackle who could pop in there and keep them afloat but he's in buffalo now and If Trent Williams is not there Is it eric flowers that left tackle at this point? And if that happens I think that the under hits fast But the thing that the reason that I think that I might be more inclined to actually make a move on them now is that I do kind of buy what Trent Williams is saying given their history with alex smith with derrius guy I think he had an infection too. I understand why he would not want to go back there So I think if I were assessing odds that Trent Williams plays for washington this year It's not going to be very high and that to me says that, you know, if they were to Actually get rid of that and make that official. I think that that line would move I don't know if it'd move officially, but the juice on it would move and I think that that's why I Yeah, I think that's why I would personally be okay Moving on it now rather than waiting I do not disagree with your thinking if you if you are of the belief that Trent Williams is gone Absolutely act on it now. I don't think I'm there quite yet. Maybe that's just the uh The little boy from dc who grew up loving the redskins hoping against hope that that doesn't happen But I think the uh the adult in me Is is almost where you are with it and I think that you know and you just mentioned it alex smith colt mccoy derrius guys Trent Williams um a rash of misdiagnoses and post-surgery Infections that have resulted in multiple surgeries now the redskins would counter by saying well, it's all different doctors It's just coincidental And I get that there might be a case for that but boy after a while you start to shake your head. You're like, what's going on here? so Yeah, he could be very legitimately mad and he could be we could we might just have to take him out of his word Then he never wants to play there again Now we're talking here with gill alexander You can follow him on twitter at beating the book gill on your vison show. It's not just football You got uh plenty of baseball talk. I saw you had paul spore on there Someone who's podcast I listened to religiously over at fangrass and you know looking at baseball for this year It kind of feels like it's the Dodgers and the astros and everybody else So when you're looking at baseball right now here on august 8th Do you see any value in world series futures for any other teams and If not, if you don't want to bet on any other team, are you starting astros or dodgers right now? How quickly could I say no to is there any value on any other team? I mean I will I will tell you the positions. I have in baseball by the way paul spore perhaps my buddy for many years Is just the best in the business as you um I have a position on there was there's a prop bet at caesars Uh astros dodgers yankees versus the field It opened I didn't I didn't get the best number, but I got minus 155 on those three teams It's now north of minus 200. So I love that bet. Uh by the way, they limited me to a nickel, which was not pleasant But the then there's as soon as cranky went to the astros I bet the astros future plus 350. There is a third prop bet which is at west gate Which is astros versus dodgers specifically in the world series, which I believe was plus 300 a couple days ago But I haven't checked since so anyway all of that different ways to say to you Yeah, I mean it's listen before last year was the first time I said right before the season started last year I said this baseball is about to become The halves in the have knots and the chasm between them is going to widen Into, you know, whatever gulf you can think of it is Just going to be an unbelievable display. And so what last year I believe we had three 100 win teams And my whole thing is what houston and the cubs did by tearing it down and building it up All these other teams who think they're going to mimic that it doesn't work that way Like the Baltimore Orioles fans are being sold a promise that's never going to come through And so you really do have bad to someone asked me on twitter yesterday. You think it's uh Baseball tank of balooza because I used to just go crazy betting NBA tank of balooza Not this last season but the year before and like I don't think it's tank of balooza. I just think they suck You know, I don't think they're trying. I mean some like the marlin show up every night The Orioles at least until last night show up every night So to answer your question in a long-winded way. No, I think it's houston I think houston is by far Not by far. I think the dodgers aren't by far the favorite in the national league I think houston is absolutely so in the american league. However luisa marino delin batanzas They're coming back for the Yankees and the Yankees lineup, which is mashing right now Is not even close to the Yankees lineup that we're going to see in the post season You can't even name some of these guys in the back half of their order if you're a casual fan So the Yankees are not are some are still to be, you know, we still haven't heard the last of the Yankees I would not rule them out the thing about the uh, the baseball players I like to say this on my show and I give credit to uh stats by lopez I don't know if you guys are familiar with with him on twer 80 of nba Favorites get through nba post season series favorites manifest at an 80 rate And that has a lot to do with first round series, you know gaming that number and the nba has always been a a league of real goliaths In hockey if you were to want to get Seven excuse me 80 of favorites through in hockey You would essentially have to play a best of 51 series in hockey. That's a random That's how absolutely random the sport of hockey is especially in the post season with the with the bounces of the puck And the way that those games go and home ice is just not nearly as advantageous In baseball to get 80 of favorites through you would have to play a best of 75 To have that go through so when we answer the question. Yes, houston is obviously the favorite Yes, the yankees would be the only other team in the america league I would think of and yes the dodgers are clearly the best team in the nl We still have to be cognizant of what I just said with those numbers And those numbers suggest as billy bean famously said My I don't know if I'll have to curse on your podcast, but my shiz doesn't work in the post season What he what he meant was that over 162 game sample size His analytics will manifest by and large. He's confident But once you get in the best of seven let alone a best of five in baseball to start things off Let's not even talk about a one-off wildcard game Anything can happen and that's that is the one thing about the baseball post season Yeah, but I mean to combat that what do you do you get four of the best pitchers in baseball right now and put them on one team Yeah, and uh, I mean that has to be why the astros are You know going to be the favorite. I I think a small favorite over over the dodgers I also just add the numbers wise when I look at stuff You know, I have astros and dodgers consistently a run and a half better than an average major league baseball team when I when I when I do my team numbers and That's a big number compared to what we've seen in the past and and obviously these franchises, you know The Dodgers have a lot of money. Houston has become Um at the vanguard of baseball analytics, you know, well beyond what money ball taught us 15 16 years ago however long ago it was but you know, those are I have to expect a little bit of regression from those teams and I think it just supports what you say about Anything can happen in these in these series. Well, right And that's what I'm saying like, you know, the same logic Allows for that a team like Washington With scherzer and strawsburg and even Patrick Corbin at the top of their rotation To then have the proverbial puncher's chance, right same sort of thing Oh, you're reducing this to a best of five. Are you watch us, you know Or even teams literally you have teams in baseball where the pitching is getting hoarded And you know, don't laugh but like a team who's not even in it But who's like Four games out of a playoff spot like the Cincinnati Reds Who if it weren't for the pirates would be the last place team in their division They are now suddenly stacked at their top of the rotation You wonder if even a team like that, right got into a wild card game or a best of five Even they then based on format have this weird puncher's chance because of what you were just describing Yeah, Trevor Bauer, sunny gray, louise castillo three guys with 30 strikeout, right? You could do a whole lot worse than that Now before we let you go here, uh, you mentioned that you were betting tennis before he came on air And we're going to talk about the u.s. Open in a couple of weeks But uh for you, what's what's like a key you found at betting tennis and why has it become a sport? You've enjoyed so much Um, I talk about this on my show every once in a while how You know, most people are like, why don't you give the tennis picks away? Well, most of the time most of the season it's in europe So it doesn't work out for the timing of my show, which is seven nine Pacific ten to noon eastern but now that we're stateside or we're in canada specifically right now Um up in toronto I could actually give them out and so for instance, like i'm fading Naomi Osaka this afternoon But I love tennis because for me it man if it it actually plays out Uh much more reliably than I find happens in other sports So baseball which five years ago I would have said if somebody asked me what's your favorite sport to bet pretty flop now we're talking It's before the age of rampant in game betting. I would have said baseball Now baseball might be the last thing I would ever bet. Um, I have stretches where I enjoy baseball betting But then there are there are just days where I'm just like, you know Nick Pogdanovich who works here as a bookmaker says, you know, if you bet baseball you need a whisk You need whiskey and a revolver because the the fact that starting here's here's what I mean by all that analytically The fact that starting pitchers are now taken out of games By and large earlier than they used to be the fact that some teams for god's sake start with an opener not even a starting pitcher My ability at least as for me other people may feel differently My ability to harness what's going to happen in a baseball game because of that change And really because the dilution of pitchers how bad they've become, you know Five years ago if I went through the starting pitch on fan graphs, you know I might have one horrific pitcher every four or five days like oh, well, there's hector nwesi Here's the bad pitcher in baseball with the horrible numbers now You go you go every day and it's like half the schedule or horrible starting pitchers And then the middle relief is even worse and I'm never I've never been a fan of closers I've always thought they were overrated as a group. So for me baseball is less tennis though is still this uh this ecosystem where based on surface based on Uh break points is really what I love about tennis. So in other words, I will do a lot of breakpoint analysis I'll do a lot of return of service analysis serve percentage nothing too complicated But an ability to sort of Get who has been fortunate who has not been fortunate sort of like babbitt tells us in baseball batting average on balls and play Uh in other stats It allows you to really get to the core of who's been playing well who hasn't despite what the results may suggest And so just for me it makes a lot of sense now five years from now if we're doing this podcast I might have a different answer for you. Right, right. Yeah, absolutely That is gill alexander You can find him on vison from 10 to noon eastern each day host of a numbers game You can also uh find his podcast called beating the book gill I want to thank you once again for joining us talking everything from football to baseball to tennis really do appreciate it Have fun as we get set for preseason games tonight finally and we'll hopefully talk to you again soon Thank you, jim. Thank you ed fake football is here Covering the future One final thank you to gill alexander vison is stopping by again follow him on twitter at beating the book Uh, I'm really fun. Shout it. I I loved hearing gill's insights there and You know, I think that I'm someone who I tend to be probably a bit naive a lot of times and a bit optimistic about too many things But I think it's good to get that reality check sometimes with teams like Maybe this total is low for a reason. So I think that was a good check for me personally Yeah, no, absolutely gill gill is one of the best in the business about talking sports betting and it was it was great to talk to Let's move into covering the future now We're both ed and I look at what our numbers say and try to Find some value that we like on the board right now And ed we've been talking a lot of college football because we're less than a month from the season Which is really fun to say and I am ecstatic to say uh, but a team that you know a lot about is Out in Ann Arbor where you live in michigan And I think that there's a lot of value in having that additional knowledge of being around the team and I try to keep my heart out of things a lot of time But I also acknowledge that like there's a lot of value in having extra extra knowledge So you want to talk here about michigan? What do you have to say about them? And they're out looking into 2019. Yeah, so I spent a lot of time on michigan and Ohio State already when we talked last week about college football And you know at that point I was talking about my preseason regression model and this is uh What you can find on the public part of my site and Ohio State's ranked ahead of michigan 1.2 points And I noted before that that still makes michigan the favorite at home at the big house on november 30th So since we last talked jim, uh, I put another thing into my model. So what I do is I take market wind totals And then I back out what the rating for each team should be for all 130 teams And the calculation is real pain in the rear end because you got to figure out what those odds are for these fcs games as well, but Uh, it turns out to be a very powerful and and in some sense somewhat orthogonal to like the The database model. So this is more like a wisdom of crowds model We're we're we're taking what the markets say about wind totals and backing out how good teams should be Now When you put these things together you get the college football preseason rankings that are available to members of my site um, michigan's actually slightly ahead in this market model and that makes uh, Ohio state only better in these final rankings by three tenths of a point over michigan Now before we had kind of talked about, you know, maybe the odds of oh house Ohio state was favored a little bit too much in the conference probabilities And now I actually have some numbers to back that up. I take these rankings that I've told you about I simulate the season and so I can tell you, you know, what the probability that michigan's going to go to the big 10 championship game um, I actually have michigan at a 45 chance To go to the big 10 title game and that's bigger than ohio states at 39.4 So you might be wondering well ed, you know, what's going on ohio states ranked higher Uh, it was this really has to do with the schedule So obviously michigan gets the game at home at the big house and college football is unfair in that way In that, you know, we only you only play your rival once and it has to be either home or away Michigan also gets a slightly easier easier cross division schedule Really nice to get Illinois In that one of those games So michigan 45 chance to win. I think there's a little bit of value in the futures market. Uh, they're plus 170 in the fan duel sports book Right now to make the big 10 title game. So My numbers suggest a little bit of value in that as well as The plus 250 to win the big 10 and I think It's important to understand why the odds might be the way they are And I think one of the reasons ohio state has the better odds is just because of what happened last year So it was supposed to finally be michigan's year ohio state hadn't looked great Uh, michigan was a four point favorite going down to columbus And then the wheels came off and they lost 62 to 39 And I think a lot of people are still thinking about that game in terms of setting these odds and and where that market Uh, where the market is But I think the more general trend is you know, michigan had a pretty good year outside of that ohio state game And ohio state really struggled at times and when you look at the whole season, that's really what's kind of putting these teams very close And um, that's what uh is is driving my numbers to say this Now jim, I was a little reluctant to talk about michigan today because I knew people were gonna say yo ed man You're you're such a homer last time you get on the show and you you talk about stanford and talking about michigan But I want to remind people in the stanford case It wasn't that I was a stanford homer. I actually thought the fan dual Odds were right on stanford in terms of win totals in terms of conference odds I just thought it was really peculiar that their uh odds to win their division were a little bit low So i'm gonna say not a homer thing there. Um, so from michigan It's it is a numbers kind of play and I do trust my numbers and I do think there's a little bit of value And and I would say that I I do not always plug the teams that I cheer for I almost got kicked off a radio in an arbor last year when I said I would take uh Matt mcquade and michigan's day player over uh charles matthew on michigan player. Wow, so Um, but anyways, I just wanted to follow up with what I said last week in terms of michigan Ohio state odds and the big 10 east and the numbers do suggest a little bit of value on michigan Not a ton of value, but a little bit of value on michigan Uh and oh house state and and just to follow up in terms of like, you know I think we get to a point where michigan beats oh wisconsin in their third or fourth game I don't think you're gonna get these types of prices again, right? So if if you Believe what i'm saying and kind of trust my numbers, uh, I think now would be a good time to jump on that Well, I think the two, you know, sometimes we get down on known quantities because they're not as exciting But shea paterson is a known quantity and you know, it's not the most exciting known quantity But like you know, you're gonna get at least a steady quarterback probably not like it's an elite quarterback But it's steady and well, I you know, I would I don't think we've seen a ceiling yet I think that's a fair assessment And I think that like there I think that there's value in having a floor is what i'm saying Whereas with the Ohio state, there's a quarterback change. There's a head coaching change There's a lot of stuff that we don't know and having them be at such short odds I think It gets my attention is the way I would say that Yeah, absolutely and and I would I would agree with that and um, yeah, just again putting some numbers behind what we talked about last week All right, so that's ed's cover in the future talk about michigan going to the big 10 championship gain getting out to indy Which is a really fun experience if you've never been I'd recommend heading out there do a great job down in indy My cover in the future is talking about, uh, nfl props for this year We talked with jj zack arisen earlier this year about some props he liked for the 2019 season He mentioned darryl kenry as being a player. He liked to lead the league in rushing yards I think he was 30 to one at the time and he's now 17 So uh, kudos to jj for that But I want to talk here about dalvin cook as a guy who could lead the league in rushing because he is currently 20 to 1 So longer odds and darryl kenry And cook at least has a lot of the elements that you need To lead the league in rushing. He is on a team with a solid defense and an efficient quarterback Which means that they should have leads late in games That's not going to be the best predictor of rushing yards, but it's not going to hurt The team seems like they want to run the football. They brought in gary kubiak They drafted gary bradbury. They drafted drew samia who's kind of this grind this grinder They try to make improvements up front And I think that they're going to want to run the football But based on the things they have said about play action I don't think they'll be running enough to handcuff the offense. You can run too much From like a leading the league in rushing perspective because if you're not up late in games You can't run and I don't want my teams to be horribly inefficient And I don't think the vikings will do that this team also Wasn't as bad as perception last year is far from a blocking perspective They actually had a 40 percent russian success rate when riley reef pat elf line and brian o'neill I'll start at last year their left tackle their center now left guard and their right tackle And the russian success rate was 32 percent among running backs when one of them was out So major improvements for the team When having those three guys and now they add gary bradbury into the fold as well along with gary kubiak Dalvin cook has averaged 4.7 yards per carry across his two seasons Despite mediocre or worse offensive line play now you're giving him a very good offensive minded You know coach in kubiak to coach up that offensive line This team's philosophy should lead to a lot of volume and it's a good offense Good defense. I think that 20 to 1 Is pretty good value to get dalvin cook at so i'm not saying that the vikings are going to be This seattle seahawks s offense. I think that they Despite what they've said. I have more faith in them that they're not complete dolts I guess is the way that I would say it I I think that they understand some things and they just want to be able to run the football efficiently But I think that even that is valuable for dalvin cook So I think at 20 to 1 He makes sense now ed you mentioned that you like the vikings before you liked uh that win the super bowl From betting perspective because they were 30 to 1 which I think was tremendous odds What do you think about dalvin cook as someone who could do some damage and potentially leave league in russia? Yeah, I mean, I agree with all your logger jim. I'm I mean the one thing that I've been seeing recently The vikings oc was talking about how you don't necessarily need to run the ball to set up play action And so this is kind of this is one of these uh football analytics tenants Ben baldlin of the athletic has done a ton of work just showing that you don't need to run the ball well Or even a lot to set up play action so And the vikings oc seems to understand that and he's talked about this recently So I don't think that means they you know, they don't run the ball at all like I mean we we kind of you know Just common sense like you have to run the ball some probably not as much as definitely not as much as the seahawks do but You know, no one quite knows what the optimal run rate is But I don't know if that affects kind of your your take on any of this just because So in a weird way, it actually makes me feel better about it Because like I said, I want them to be an efficient offense because efficient offenses can get leads and they can you know Control the clock more and they can lean on their ground game more later on you pass to win and frank reich did this last year You pass to lead you rush to win I think that's that's the saying and frank reich did that last year at the colts where When it was a neutral game script they passed a ton But once they got up by I think it was one score They became I think the third heaviest the third one heaviest team in the league Something like that, you know, it's on war and sharpsite. You can find that there And I would hope that the vikings would take a similar approach So in a weird way having kevin stafanski and kurt cousins both talk up play action and how you don't need to run to You know to do good play action it actually makes me feel better about betting delvin cook. I don't know if that's backwards Or no, I think you're saying that like forming a narrative I mean, they're gonna throw a lot on first down the first half That's a hope or hope seven ten points, you know into the second quarter And then you're gonna be running the ball more which is right, you know I mean you probably want more of those opportunities in the third quarter Where you know the defense isn't completely committed to the run game because it's not an end of the games type situation where you're gonna average like what two and a half yards or a rush or something Exactly a lot of opportunities in the third quarter When you know when you can break something And someone who has dalvin cook in plenty of best ball leagues I'm hoping that this winds up being the case that is all we have for today But back once again next week with a pair of shows on monday and thursday should be a whole lot of fun Ed before we get there though, what's going on over at the power rank over this weekend? Hey, thanks for asking jim. I had bill connelly of ESPN on the football analytics show Bill is always a great person to talk to in terms of projecting college football You know, he's written these previews over the years of all fbs teams Runs the numbers himself Pretty much the only person that writes that much and runs that good in numbers So, um, yeah football analytics show you can check it out wherever you get your podcasts Love bill connelly, so i'm gonna check that out awesome I am glad that you let me know about that because I will put it in my spotify queue later on speaking of spotify You can subscribe or rate and review the podcast on spotify apple podcasts soundcloud stitcher wherever you get your podcasts Again ratings and reviews help us out a ton. So please leave those and subscribe So you can get our podcast next monday big. Thank you to our producer calvin thea bull for Putting us on air and chopping up some sweet videos for the fan dual twitter account as well Want to thank ed for joining me? You can follow ed on twitter at the power rank. I am at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s you can also follow fan dual the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast Thank you all for tuning in for today. Good luck with all your bets Enjoy the pre season football for tonight and we'll talk to you again next week This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network You