 The following is a presentation of TFNN. Trade what you see with Larry Pezzavento. All now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at 727-873-7618. Now, Larry Pezzavento. Lookin' good, Billy Ray feeling good, Lewis. Billy Ray Valentine, Capricorn. We got a lot of things happening in the Capricorn now, folks. We've got the possible war. That's what they're trying to tell us anyway. Looks like they're trying to feed tapioca to the folks at the nursing home one more time. All right, let's take a look at what we think is going on here in some of these markets. First of the German DAX, as you can see, had that big ABCD up there. It didn't explode to the upside. Of course, it's selling off with the rest of the markets last night after it was revealed that there were some shenanigans going over there in Iraq. So we'll see if that's going on. Folks, this is big cycle stuff during those years. I have some information on that, but I don't think you guys would be interested in it. So let's just look over what we're looking at in some of these charts here. You'll be able to see here. Let's start with the crude oil because I have a presentation I want to show on the bonds, but I wanted to show crude oil because we have a really interesting thing going on with the news and, of course, it's the market popped up and they're talking about exploding prices and things like that. Folks, go back and look at September the 13th. You'll see there where it says the Saudi drone strike. We were on a new moon at that time. You'll notice that the market closed at 55 and it opened at 64. It was up $9 a barrel before going from 65 back down to 50 again. Now they're talking about the exploding prices of crude oil today and how bullish it is and everything. Look what it's done. It took out those old highs by 50 cents and is now trading a little bit lower than that. That's not an exploding price. That's the way I look at it. I don't know, but that's a big thing possibly. Is it a game changer? Folks, I don't know. And all I do is I look at the chart. The one chart, you got to follow the money, I think. The one chart that I look at that Mr. Z follows very closely is the dollar yen. And if we take a look here, we'll just take a look at this dollar yen chart. This will give you an idea of where we are. This market has been in a downtrend since last August. You can see the lower tops that we've had in here. The last one came in in November at the 61% retracement. Now we're down near the 382 retracement here at this 107, 70 level. Folks, if we go below 107.70 in the dollar yen, that will be a game changer. And I don't know how much of a game it's going to change, but we'll have to look at it. The other thing that I think is relatively important is we had this big explosive move to the upside, mainly caused by Apple. It was widely telegraphed on the floor of the stock exchange that I had the trade of the year on in Apple and they all went for my stop. If you believe that, I still have two shares of the Brooklyn Bridge I've been saving for you. Folks, it went up to $300 a share. Probably going to be a little bit lower than that today, probably down to 2.99 and 3.25. But that was a trade that I had to do. I will not do a trade of the year anymore. I didn't want to do this one, but somebody forced me to do it and I am not holding them responsible because I would have done that trade over and over and over again. But you can't fight Mr. Buffett when he comes on with Becky Quick and spends 30 minutes telling everybody why Apple is the greatest stock in the world. Everybody believes him. By the way, yesterday in the heat of this thing in the last half hour, I happened to be watching Bloomberg and they were talking about a price objective now of $500 a share in Apple. So this is your last chance to get on board. All right, let's move on to the Treasury bonds. Let's just take a quick look at it. First, what we're going to do is we're going to look at the Treasury bonds on a long-term chart. Now, this is the one that gives the most volatility. Hold on just a second here and we'll get this up here so everybody can see it. There we go. This goes back over the last couple of years. Bonds actually topped in May of 2016. You'll notice that on the left-hand side there, you see that little blue notation where it says 1.618 expansion. That was the expansion between 2015 and 2016. It was a 1.618 expansion. That was the same type of pattern that I was looking at in Apple. Now, maybe I put my stop too close. I don't know. I didn't want to risk more than $7, so that's what I did. Anyway, this is where we're looking at now. You can see the market came down. This is a weekly chart. Now, look, we came down into 2007. We rallied up to the 382 level. You can see that very clearly, the 382 coming in at that 158 level. Then we came down and we made a 1.27 expansion of that. That also happened to be a 618 on the longer-term chart. And then we rallied up and made almost a perfect 78% retracement in the bonds back in September. While this was happening, we were seeing big drops in open interest, which we said that was not good. But look what's happened now. The lows we've made over the past two weeks down there at that 154 and 155 and change was a 382 retracement of that whole move. Now, that's very important because it's held that and we've been able to rally three points. Very, very important from what we're looking at. Remember, during this time, after the top was made in September, the open interest was dropping, and that's what gave us our first big drop into here to the 382. The fact that it was able to only go to the 382 could be very, very bullish. We won't know that. If we go below 154 now, it will be very, very bearish in my opinion. But let's just take a look at the daily now and we'll just see where we are. This is just a bird's-eye view of the last part of this chart. If you want to take a look at this, you'll be able to see it. You'll notice here the big ABCD went up to the top up there, three dry pattern. That was in September. That's when open interest was dropping. Then we had the move that's come down here to the 155 level. We're trading around 157 and 23, mainly because of the news. It's popping up pretty good. The key level here, folks, the only way this market is going to be bullish is if we close above 161. That's the only way that I can see that this could be bullish. I believe that we've made a major top in interest rates, excuse me, a bottom in interest rates that started in August of 1982. So it's been 30, it topped in 35. So it was 37 years. And so I would think that we're getting ready to have higher interest rates, not lower interest rates. I've never believed this tapioca that they try to feed us about negative interest rates. So that's what we're paying attention to here this morning. The comments on the stock market, I'll try to cover that when we come back from the break. And we'll see, you know, what that, what it possibly means. I want to cover a few currencies, but we've got another one that really needs our attention here because we've been waiting for this and we should be here today. And that is in our natural gas. This UNG contract should hit 1626, sometime this morning. You won't have to risk more than 50 cents on that, folks. That'll be about 3% of the value of the contract, 3% of $16, roughly 50 cents. So that's what I would do is not risk any more than that. That's the same thing that I did and hit my life jacket on. Mr. Thomas saying that bonds are going to go a lot higher. And I respect his opinion as Abraham Lincoln said. 877-927-6648. 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And here it is, you'll pull it up here. We'll be able to take a quick look at it. Hold on one second here. There we go. This is right out of Mr. Murphy, John Murphy's book. If you see prices rising like we've had in soybeans and open interest falling like we've had in soybeans, that means that the market is weakening. The reason is that buyers are leaving the market and there's not much left in there. So that's what that means. When you're trading that, you still have to decide when you look at the chart. That's where your trade comes in. I mean, that's great information. But if you take a look at this, you know, you have to find a place where you want to sell it. So you've got to add some ratios or some ABCD, something that you use for a trading system to enter the market. That's what it's all about. All that tells you is it's alerting you. Like yesterday in the NASDAQ, look at the NASDAQ going straight up up 120 or something yesterday with a dial up 300 points. The open interest was just dropping in the NASDAQ yesterday. That's not bullish. Well, you can see that today. And look at the Dow Jones yesterday. Dow Jones up 340, open interest dropping. Now, the S&P did have increasing open interest of about 25,000, considering the open interest is 2.7 million. But that open interest is down from 3.1 million. So the open interest has been dropping in the S&P. So people have been, you know, looking at the market, it doesn't show that, but that's what's been happening. How long that can continue be a long time. So we'll see whether that's it. I don't know. We'll have to be able to look at it little by little as we go through and look at some of these things. I am getting a lot of static today, folks. I hope I'm coming through clearly because I hear a great deal of static on my line. Maybe it's me, my feedback coming. I don't know, but let me know if it's okay here at TFNN, I'd like to know if the sound is okay. So we'll see how this is going. Folks, you know, the stuff in the news here, two things you got to remember. You know, what people report and what's happening is totally different sometimes. So you've got to use your own sound judgment. And that's why, you know, it's an advantage of being a technician because you have to focus on, you know, what the actual prices are going to be as far as, you know, with all this news going on. Like, I don't really think that's been really bullish. I mean, crude oil has popped up there, but, you know, it's not like it was back in September where it jumped $9 in a day. You know, so that's not nearly as bullish. We're in that little tight trading range now between, you know, 64 and 50. So nothing really big happened to that point. I don't know. But just remember what you hear in the news is not always what you think it might be. So let's sort of pay attention. The same thing is true with the gold. We had a really nice move in gold. Silver did not do as much. I mean, it was still up, but not nearly as much as you would expect it to be, considering gold was up around $12, $13 at one time. So that's another one that we want to be watching. Now, the currencies, we've been following those very, very closely. We've seen these numbers hit pretty nicely. If you remember yesterday, we were talking about the British pound and the fact that it went exactly up to the 61% retracement up there, that 132.88 hit its spot on. And for since that time, let's just follow, you know, what the British pound did over this point. You can do it with a Euro too, but we happen to be watching the pound very, very closely. But let's just look at the British pound here this morning so we can take a quick look at this. Hold on just a second here. And these charts are the same if they, hold on just a second. If these charts are the same, whether they're, you're looking at the S&P or whatever, these numbers are, they're the same anywhere. But you can see the high we made there at 32.88. That was a 61% retracement. We came down, we rallied up exactly to the 382.132. Okay. Then we completed, look at the ABCD that we basically came within five pips of completing down there at 130.55. And look at the little rally back last night. Look at that. It goes exactly to the 61% retracement of the 382 high. 130, 160 drops another 110 points. And now we're getting ready to have another rally that should go up to the 130, 130 level. So that's what we're kind of keeping an eye on as we look at these here this morning. By the way, the lines at TFNN right now are just absolutely loaded up. Al says you won't be able to get through at least a few minutes, but if you do want to call, it's 877-927-6648. And I certainly wish I knew what was causing all this static on the line, but I don't know. All right, folks. We have another question. Oh, I like this quote from Mitch Anderson. Nothing changes as quickly as yesterday's vision of the future. Folks, I don't know whether this is a game changer or not. I don't think we are going to go to a ground war with Iran. They would lose that. I don't think there would be any question. Wow. What do I know? Let's not talk about that. Watch the price action, folks. That's it. The key to watching the stock market today, folks, we've dropped 40 handles off the high. What we've done so far is we've stopped at the exact 61% retrace, excuse me, 38% retracement of the low of December 10th. That's what we've done. Okay, then it must be on my side here. Can someone dry it? Hope he can summon divine intervention? Yeah. You know, Jimmy D, you're absolutely true. You know, I can walk on water, but it's in a seven degree weather in Minnesota where I can walk on the lake when it's frozen. Hey, listen, I'm just an old country boy, folks. I don't have any secrets. I share everything. I don't have anything that I use. What I do is so simple. The problem is, folks, it doesn't work all the time. That's the problem. You know, you're not going to, you know, I have never seen anything that works all the time. But, you know, if you're looking for something like that, go get another job because you're not going to find it. You don't need to know that, folks. Look at Jim Simmons, okay? He's only right about 50% of the time and he's one of the best in the business. Look at Tom Hougart. He makes a huge amount of money and he's only right 30% of the time. So it's how you handle, you know, the losses. The old rule is he who loses best is the winner and that's what it's all about. So that's pretty much what I think you should be watching. So I don't know. That's my 10 cents worth. We'll see. Now, if the crude oil can close above $64 a barrel today and break out of that trading range, then I'll say, yes, we're probably going to get ready to go popping above it. You know, in gold, very emotional. We got up to, what, 1554. The old high was 1565. And, you know, that's going to keep going or not. I'm not sure, but I'm watching. You know, folks, all we've had so far in that gold market over the last three weeks is the biggest correction we've had is $9. What did we do today? We went from 1554 down to 1545. How much was that? $9. As soon as it breaks below $9, you drop $11 or $12, that tells you yes, then maybe the trend is going to break. That's why this number that we have today at $3205 and the E-mini S&P is so very, very important is because that's a 382 of the low from December the 10th. So let's take a little break and we'll be right back and I'm going to log in and come back. We'll be right back. The path of least resistance is David White's daily trading newsletter. And if you're looking for active trading ideas, then now's a perfect time for a 30 day free trial and a 30 day free trial. It's a great opportunity to take a look. And if you have any questions, or any questions about what you want to comment on, please, feel free to email me. Next week, I'm going to be talking about the way of trading. And I'm going to be talking about the way of trading. And I'm going to be talking about the way of trading. And I'm going to be talking about the way time for a 30-day free trial to this powerful daily trading advisory service. David uses his years of trading experience to offer his subscribers his trading ideas each morning in his Path of Lease Resistance newsletter. Using a combination of equity trades along with options, David keeps his subscribers up to date with all pertinent market information with intraday afternoon updates when warranted. Don't miss out on this great chance to get a 30-day free trial to David's daily newsletter The Path of Lease Resistance with no obligation to pay anything. David has been delivering solid recommendations for his subscribers recently and if you'd like to see the type of newsletter he delivers every morning then visit the front page of TFNN and you'll find the Path of Lease Resistance under Trading Newsletters. For all the details and to start your 30-day free trial today log on to TFNN.com now. TFNN is excited about our new software charting program The Art of Timing the Trade Charts. In collaboration with Tom O'Brien and using his best-selling book The Art of Timing the Trade, your ultimate trading mastery system, David White has programmed an outstanding piece of software that will complement any trader's methodology. Using this first-of-its-kind program The Art of Timing the Trade Charts allows you to scan thousands of stocks for Fibonacci formation setups including guardleafs, ABCs, butterflies and much more. The Art of Timing the Trade Charts is designed to help you when scouring the markets for stocks just beginning to form the trading patterns that many investors spend days, weeks or even months searching to find. And right now we're offering licenses available at only $79 a month. We are so confident that you're gonna love this new charting software that will even give you a 30 day unconditional money back guarantee. Don't miss out on this incredible new piece of software. Get your copy of The Art of Timing the Trade Charts today by visiting TFNN.com. This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. Okay we're back folks and I believe we have Dennis from New York on the line. Dennis are you there? Good morning Larry. How are you doing? Good morning. Thank you for calling in. You want to talk about platinum? Yes I want to see if we have a three drives to a top pattern. Looks like it came down pretty hard this morning. Well I'm not sure if it's quite the three drives to the top. It's really not. What it is it's a it's a double top going back to the hide that we made back when we hit 1,080 cents and today we hit 1,001 and 40 cents and we've we've dropped $7 from that level. It just didn't didn't break out to the upside as of yet but if we get above of you know a thousand and two then it certainly would be a breakout to the upside but right now that is not it's a very nice ABCD pattern as you can see from the chart but it's not a three drive. There's no symmetry there. Dennis there's a really easy way to find a three drive pattern. If you have to question yourself of whether it's a three drive pattern it probably isn't. It's got to look really symmetrical in other words drive one goes up and drive two comes down drive three grows up and then it goes up and make that final. They've got to look like three little mountain peaks and they got to be really really symmetrical. They can't be really jagged or anything so if you have that problem you know the best thing to do is it's probably not going to be a three drive pattern but this one certainly is that this is a double top. If it is a double top and we certainly don't know that as of yet. Good to hear thanks. Does that help you. Yes it does. Good. Well good. I'm glad you did and happy new year to you and thanks for calling in. How's your weather over there in New York. A little rainy today but my brother-law is in Tucson and hopefully I can come out here and see you one of these days. If you're ever in the area please give me a call and come up and we'll you and I and Sarah maybe go out for lunch or something and we'd love to do that so if you get near you get let me know. Beautiful thanks again. Okay you bet thank you. Okay folks let's move on and talk about the next one we want to talk about this morning of course is I forgot to put the footsie up I meant to do that on the daily chart and we wanted to get that up to show you the same thing happened in the footsie you see had that big ABCD and we couldn't go above it by very much it was a perfect one we backed off a little bit in the markets are very very jumpy smart this morning so I want to take just a moment folks to catch up what what is going on in the markets this morning because of the fact that we're looking at a market where we could be watching some very similar type moves here we've now let's just give you let me just give you a quick quick summary here on this S&P folks just to slowly take a minute but hey I think it's worth it so I'm just going to I'm just going to give you what I see happening in your you'll be able to determine whether you want to use it or not and that's the whole key to using all this stuff or not but if you're one second I got to get it back a little farther because the big one that you want to watch here let me break this bring this up so we can see it quickly and then I'll talk about it but see this is where I look at numbers now you'll notice the low you'll see the low we made at 30 207 last night okay now just take your your pointer and look at 30 207 and follow it down where you see 0.39 that's 382 okay and you go down all the way down to the low of December the 10th so it made a 382 retracement of December the 10th okay now if you went back and looked at the low we made at 32 10 that was a 382 of the low from 2000 excuse me from from December the 12th so that's all it's doing now so what we've done so far this morning as you can see from the chart we've just made a 50% retracement of the high that we made yesterday and the low we made last night we rallied up to 32 35 that's where we're trading right now folks I've said many times the shorts are absolutely scared to death and they should be as you can see every time the market moves down boom away she goes to the upside so that's why if you want to pick a fight Mr. my good friend John James and if you want to pick a fight you know go to the one of the weaker sisters you know don't don't try to sell apple that was about let's just double check to see how how apple is doing this morning my guess is it's probably up on the day or very close to it let's just double check here we'll put up here we see we closed that yeah well we do we open down it went closed at 300 opened at at 294 we've already made a 61% retracement up at 298 in apple so it's it's a little stronger than the rest of them but we did make that exactly to the stick was exactly 618 was 298 and a half and that's where it went was the high at 298 60 was the exact high so whether that means anything or not so the key level here is if we get above this 32 64 from yesterday in the fact of a potential war and stuff but that is really bullish folks and you can't stand in front of that so all I don't know whether this is a game changer or not all I can tell you is to watch a few things you know like watching the keep an eye on the really call that darn thing the the Japanese yen watch that Japanese yen let's pull that up and just take a quick look to see what's going along with that and we'll be able to we'll be able to see it very quickly here this is the dollar yen let's get this up here and we'll see if we're holding that 382 yes we certainly are that that has not changed at all from where we we need to get it to 107 80 and it's at 101 17 so there's no a disaster looking at the markets right now even though there's a big emotional thing here it makes it pretty difficult to think that this is a game changer as of yet but it certainly could you know you really don't know that's the bottom line is I'm seeing it here so if you have any questions it's 877 927 664 8 and we'll be happy to answer me if we can the question I don't know Apple did hit 300 it hit 300 point 25 yesterday at the end of the close the last we saw here just you know if you if you want to look at these numbers yourself just pull up a 15 minute chart and see how Apple gap down to 294 it rallied up exactly to the 61% retracement at 298 60 and that came in at 50 we've got a caller in from Poland Michael are you there good morning are you calling yeah here you find are you calling from the country of Poland yeah well yeah see my subject yeah what can I do for you oh we've lost Michael shut the front door and raise the red he won't you're cutting out on me Michael if you'll be I think you wanted to talk about the the Canadian dollar and I certainly would like to cover that for you let's get this up here because I think we're having a pretty good move in this and I'll get this up here and seeing here very good peak there you go I hope I hope you can hear me Michael because you've cut out on Larry I don't know I guess I haven't paid my phone bill here in Tucson but the Canadian dollar looks like he wants to get up to around 7780 to the dollars what it looks like to me 77 yeah 7780 is what I'm looking at huh okay and if cruel if cruel get richer 70 with complex you know since Canadian dollars of petro currency where do you think the Canadian dollar to go to well if it's if it's really bullish it might get up to 80 you know but I don't know if it's gonna do that or not this is see we're still in that same zone just like the crude oil you know we're still in that same type of zone there so I I would have to wait to see crude oil close above $65 a barrel if spot crude can close above 65 it'd be a big breakout and we'd be looking at at a move of around $5 a barrel I would leave but today's move is really not very much the most we were up with $3 so that's not a figure they're they're neutral there's not really anything showing on that it's up and down there's nothing positive or negative at all okay thank you very much thank you for calling in my 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investor should carefully consider a funds investment objective risks charges and expenses before investing a funds prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares to obtain a funds prospectus and summary prospectus call 8664767523 or visit direction investments dot com a funds prospectus and summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing an investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal the funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors distributor for side fund services LLC the bull bear trading hour with Tom and Tommy O'Brien next okay folks I wanted to expand on what we were talking with our friends from Poland here just a second ago if you'll look at this market for the dollar versus the Canadian you'll see how we've gone down and made a 1.27 expansion there at that one 2980 look folks we've been here for three days and that that's in that was before that was New Year's Eve folks so that that is before what happened in almost said Benghazi in Iraq last night so this is not not affected the oil market as of yet now had a big down move on New Year's Eve but it's gone nowhere for three days so that's telling you that somebody's not too scared about what's happening in the oil market just like what's going on in the Japanese and it can't even make a 382 retracement of this so there's nothing it's not a game changer from looking at the charts and these money markets forex is how they move money around so that's the best way to look at it that's the only fact is that's what I'm watching look at the look we've already rallied 30 handles in the s&p in the last two hours after that bottom down at the 382 was made there at 3207 so that's the key we get below 3207 and about a bing about a boom then you've got you've got game to the downside so that's basically what I look at could someone please give me a price of the UNG because we were thinking it might hit 1628 today that would be the buy price that we'd been watching for for a quite a long time we'll just get this up here so that you can take a quick look at it and we'll be able to get it over here by the way thank you folks for putting up with me yesterday had a lot of technical problems and was certainly under the weather with a little bit of jet lag but look at this UNG this 1628 is what we're looking at and I believe we we made a new low yesterday so we should be we're 49 so we're then 20 cents of that number so 1628 is what you want to look at so pay pay close attention to that because anything below that would certainly tell us that this pattern would be would be failing also so we'll just keep a very very close eye on that as we look through okay let's move on here we've got a lot of things happening remember when bill meridian was on last friday he talked about july the 10th well norm winsky has some things he would like to share with us he's going to be coming on july the 10th shut the front door january 10th we'll be able to see uh oh it was oh my goodness someone's telling us at the pre-market that it hit 1612 in the UNG okay well that would have been uh that would have been right at 28 that would have been so if you bought that at 28 i would put your stop but just right below that 1612 then so you don't have to risk about 15 cents that's about as low as risk again that's 2 percent can't get any lower than that the futures got down to 08 we said that 10 would probably be a very very interesting spot to take a look at it whether it's going to hold that level or not i don't know but that's the level we've been waiting for and uh pays to wait now let's move over to talk a little bit about the us dollar because this is something i think is pretty important so since it's our show here tfn we're going to talk about a little bit here's the us dollar index as it was as a friday you can see we had the d level down there we were at uh very close to that 9610 level that was the abcd pattern looked like it was heading down you know to never have another uptick and then as you can see what happened the very next day after hitting that d point look what happened the dollar index immediately turned and it's had a really strong rally and it's continuing that rally today as we're seeing weakness in the euro and the british pound and the dollar versus canada i mean all of them are really coming to accept the australian the australian is is weakening quite a bit but we had talked about that one earlier because of the fact that it had that monster abcd pattern in the australian dollar and then it finally rolled over it went about 30 pips above the above the level here and hold on one second here we'll get up here you'll see we got up to the 130 well we got up to 70 40 now we're trading 100 handled 100 pips below that so that tells us that that pattern has certainly completed so you'd be watching for what the the correction numbers would be on the downside the first one would be right around 6910 which would be a 382 off of the whole move so those are a few that were keeping a close eye on all right let's let me take a quick look here at what's going on in the markets to see if we're back to unchanged on the s and p no not yet but we're we've got up we've rallied 32 handles which is pretty good we've already cleared the 61 percent retracement we've cleared the 50 percent retracement the only thing left is the 61 percent at 32 42 and then after that would be 32 we get to 32 52 we will be off to the races i would think but that's neither here nor there we'll keep a close eye on it as we watch these markets unfold now the NASDAQ has made the 61 percent retracement folks it got up to 88 42 we're now trading at 88 31 so that's been the leader of the pack and that's the one that's open interest is dropping so the players are leaving the 64 dollar question is where are they going to go from this level right here all right let's move on here take a quick look at the bonds here just give me a second folks i need to update this to a so that i can see what my forecast is going to be for this treasury bond today this is where it's really tough doing this show early in the morning and we'll get this up here hold on a second and oh that's not good give me a second here oh there we go hold on one second i will have this up here all righty all right here's where we are in the treasury bonds okay we had a high last night in the bonds at 158 07 and we've come down we dropped the whole handle all the way down to 157 11 and now we're in an area where we should get a little bit of a bounce from this level let's just take a quick look at it on a little little bit of a timing basis here just to see where we are put this up so we can take a quick look at it and now we'll be able to see what's going on with this so shut the front door razor and i think i can do it this way there we go anyway that's what we're watching so watch a little retracement here in this treasury bonds at bonds overall folks that they have a bearish bias because of all those numbers that we're looking at here so pay pay a close attention to these because if they don't turn these bonds up pretty quickly we're going to be looking at some really really serious moves to the downside in bonds which means the rates are going to be going higher and not lower so if you've got a chance to renew your mortgage or something like that i would certainly recommend you know you do that because these rates are not going to stay down at this level very long in fact tom was mentioning on the show earlier that many of the countries that were negative are now either as neutral or slightly positive so those are a few things that you might want to you know keep in mind as you look at some of these things to do i've been asked to take a look at tlt folks i'm waiting you know i don't like to do these etfs like i don't trade them but i do watch the bonds and if i see something really serious in the bonds or i think that tlt is ready to turn i'll certainly you know let you know because the bonds are very very active they trade six times well the open interest in the notes is six times what it is the bonds but the volatility is two or three times what it is in the notes because more traders are in that bond in the bond arena it used to be a pit but not anymore anyway that's that's where we're watching so i hope that helps we'll see what's going on someone asked a question about the gold we got up to 1550 we're now trading at 1548 it's done absolutely very little considering the fact that these these markets are not reacting much to what's going on i i remember my biggest fear was back in in october of 1981 when the iranians hit the iraqi airports or nuclear power station and the price of gold was soaring it was up two dollars and 65 cents eight seven seven nine two seven six six four eight i'm certain you are or 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banner on the front page of tfnn.com okay folks i think because we have a big thing going in iraq today i'm going to share with you what my ai program is looking at for crude oil this morning let's just get this up so you folks can take a look at remember trade at your own risk you're responsible for it but here's what we're looking at pay attention to it folks because sometimes it works pretty good let me move this over just a little bit so i can get the camera in there and you'll notice here around 12 o'clock there should be a smooth starting high enough this is making a high at 12 o'clock that means that the cycle is making a mirror image or it's inverted so 12 o'clock is the key time for crude oil it'll be very interesting to see what happens with remember use stops in all these markets because with the news coming in the way that it is it is really quite hard to trade these markets without a stop because you're exposing yourself to a great deal of danger if you don't if you don't do that have a wonderful weekend of course and we've got a lot of work to do over the weekend because the year in brings great moves and some of these things like foreign exchange and and gold and things like that so we'll be watching all of these very very closely okay one other question someone had was about the silver silver is lagging behind the gold and silver for some reason it's not making the big moves like you'd be expecting to see you know with the with the silver moving that way but whether it does it or not later i don't know but right now it's lagging behind a little bit so that's how we're watching it so keep in mind you gotta you gotta protect yourself because any tweet or a bomb or you know anything could happen so you've got to get in there and make sure that you don't take any disastrous losses because liquidity can really contract because people are afraid to trade much like what happened in the october of 87 and we don't want to see that and so make sure you protect yourself to not get hurt on anything whether you're trading hogs or soybeans or whatever it happens to be protect yourself because if you don't you're telling the markets you know more than she does and she doesn't like good jokes so pay very very close attention to what your risks are at all time so that's it we'll see you folks on the flip side on monday and live every day in an attitude of gratitude and may god bless