 Hey everyone welcome to this week's video update today's Friday October 23rd Hope everybody had a great week of trading take a look at the S&P Give you a quick Synopsis of my thoughts leading up to the election and then a little bit about the you know through the election as well You know, we've been talking about Looking for new highs leading up to the election. We've had this pullback Looking like it's starting to firm up here and potentially start to bounce. I do think we have higher prices into next week and You know at least testing these and buy the election and then from there, you know a lot can happen, right? We you know, nobody knows but I think you know the expectation that I think a lot of people have is That if Biden wins Biden's bad for stocks and the market's gonna go down Trump is good for stocks if Trump wins the market's gonna go up and I'm not so sure that that's the case and and here's why the market likes Certainty and And so let's say, you know, like I said a lot could change between now and then but right now Biden is leading the polls and I think that if if Biden does end up winning that I think that we could in the short term see higher prices in stock So, you know right after the election, I would not be surprised if we see the market really rally take off If Biden wins now the expectation according to the polls Is that Trump is behind right and so if Trump does pull out a victory that could be a little bit of a surprise to the market We actually may see some short-term downside in the market, which is the opposite of what a lot of people think So that's kind of my initial thought going in, you know the market a lot of times will do the exact opposite of what you might think and It's a little game of chess of you know The reaction of what the market does based on based on news and different events that come out And so that is that's kind of my expectation But we'll see what happens and again, we're we're gonna let price action lead especially with our day trading And then we are going to manage our portfolio Mechanically as we always do one thing that that we will start doing as we get closer to the election is we may start Lightning up the number of positions the amount of capital allocated to our portfolio So positions that we currently have on we may start taking off as we get closer But we're still gonna have a decent number of positions. We're still gonna stay mechanical We're not gonna do anything crazy just because an election is happening We're still gonna continue to stay mechanical So anyway, just some initial thoughts of what we're what we're looking at here and And and what we what we look to potentially expect Going forward. So that is it. Let's jump into the alerts for the week starting with Monday Did a opening trade in Microsoft did a pre earnings long straddle and The the strategy just as we teach in our earnings Coise Kurt Just as we teach in our earnings course is We are looking for to enter these typically when we get a little bit of a dip in implied volatility so if we look at Microsoft you can see it it started to have a dip in implied volatility we got in on Monday and our expectation is that Implied volatility is going to increase in earnings now. It has not done that yet. It's actually contracted even more into today And so if we take a look You see we are down a little bit on the trade a couple hundred dollars But if we get a pop an implied volatility and a decent size move We could still book a profit on this trade. So that is what we're looking for in Microsoft Next trade closing adjusting trade in the queues. So we closed out one set of short call verticals So we're just kind of lightening up our Lightning up our short Delta looking for that potential move higher into the election We still have one set of short call verticals in the queues. Let's take a look at that and We're up about three hundred dollars since we did our last roll here. So looking for some downside Even though we are looking for upside Prices, you know leading up to the election that doesn't mean we're getting rid of all of our short Delta I said we're lightening up our short Delta board still keeping some Because obviously anything can happen. We always want to have a little bit of protection to the downside in case things do fall apart And this is one of those trades. So we've got some downside Room with the qqq trade. So we'll continue to hold that Next trade is opening trade in netflix. So we did an earnings iron duck in netflix. So they announced earnings We put this on The day of earnings they announced after the market closed that day And we had a max profit of 692 which is also our max loss that we would exit at if it got to that point things worked out well and If you let's take a look at a chart of netflix, we closed this out today And if we look at a chart After earnings price came down right smack dab into the middle of our duck head now It did start to go down down down It was getting close close close to our broke break even we were never really down on the trade Maybe a couple dollars at most got a little bit of a bounce today Ended up booking almost max profit on the trade. So nice nice trade in uh netflix We did a pre earnings long call And ended up just closing this out right before earnings took a loss on this trade never got the upside momentum leading up to the earnings announcement that we were hoping for So as we pulled back Right here we got in looking for a little bit of a bounce and price leading up to earnings never got that So we ended up just closing that one out Next trade closing justing trade in iwm. So similar to what we did in the cues We had in this one. We had some long put verticals in iwm One of them got down to two days to expiration So we either needed to roll or close And so we just decided to close that to again lighten up on our short deltas So if we look at iwm, we're still holding one of those And it's outside of range here. So we'll be looking to this is in november So we've still got plenty of time still got 28 days. So we're going to go ahead and hold this one And and if we get some downside that'll benefit that trade If not, we'll potentially roll that out to december as we get closer to expiration Closing trade in spx. We had a weekly double calendar that we closed booked a hundred and a little over a hundred bucks on this one We closed it out on thursday Had we held it till today on friday. We could have booked a little bit more profit But you know with the with the implied volatility contraction between the front and back week that we see a lot of times on friday We decided just to take that money and run and um And uh, and and so we booked a nice little profit on that one We also opened a new weekly double calendar in the next expiration cycle At that time it was eight and 11 days. So let's take a look at spx. We've got a few different positions here Starting with Let's go to that uh weekly double calendar first, which is these ones here Ops, that's an iron duck. Well, there's an iron duck. We're up about 200 bucks on that one That one expires on the 29th So we will close that closer to expiration And then here's our weekly double calendar that we put on see we're up about 40 bucks on this one If we get a little bit of implied volatility expansion into next week, which I expect as we get closer to uh to the election We will get some implied volatility expansion and that should help the difference between our front and back week here So while we are getting a little dip in our tent, uh, I would expect that to push back up into next week But we'll see uh, so we're up right now. And then lastly we've got another iron duck and this one is going to be held through the election And uh, we're up currently about 95 bucks on this Got a lot of room to the downside still have potential to uh to book max profit on that So we're going to hold on to that for now Next trade amazon did a pre earnings long call vertical. So with amazon being such a large, uh, large symbol, you know 30 100 32 hundred dollar stock Instead of buying a pre earnings long call, we did a vertical just to lower the buying power requirement In this case, we're targeting 50 of max profit So let's take a look at where we're at with amazon here Again similar to what we were trying to do in netflix We're just looking for as we've had this pullback And and we expect some upside momentum in the overall market and specifically these tech stocks leading into earnings Looking for a bounce amazon announces earnings On the 29th and so looking for some upside momentum into that earnings announcement If price can climb just up to you know in this area here With the with the uh theta decay will be at almost at a point of booking 50 of max profit. So You know, let's call it, you know, 30 32 80 32 90, you know, if it gets up there You know to this area right here Um as we as we get closer to that uh earnings date We should be able to book a profit and and you can do that in in finger swim by you know Using your theoretical calendar here. So if you theoretically go through time, you see what that p&l line does it continues to increase So by the time that you get to the 29th, you know, you only have to be about out to here 32 60 32 70 To be at 50 of max profit. And so that's what we're looking for Out of amazon Next trade rolling just in trade in zb. So we had a short strangle where we have a short strangle in zb Ended up rolling this one out. We had 28 days to expiration But price moved lower and we needed to roll our calls down So we went ahead and just rolled that out to the 62 day cycle at the same time. So let's take a look at zb Uh, you can see prices hanging out right here. So kind of widened out our break evens to the downside We've got a lot of room to the upside if we get a little bit of a bounce in bonds We'll be right back to center and uh, we'll just wait for some more theta decay in zb And then lastly was the closing that earnings iron duck that we booked a nice profit in in netflix Was our last trade for the day last trade for the week. So those are all the alerts Let's take a look at some of our other positions Starting with es another one of our short delta plays prices a little bit out of range here on on this long put vertical So looking for some downside action to get back into range on that gold We've got an iron condor in gold. We're up After all adjustments and you know taking them off and putting them back on We're up over a thousand bucks on this trade Once we get to about 30 to 40 of max profit on this one We'll take it off and close the trade before the election And and just hold on until potentially afterwards to add another gold position back in Natty gas We're in good shape here, too. We're almost at 50 of max profit since we rolled this trade We've got a Still got 32 days. So if we get over 50 of max profit, we'll probably roll this out Just to give us a little A little bit more duration heading into earnings. So we're currently the next cycle currently has 66 days to expiration So next week that'll be down to 60 Which will also coincide with potentially us being at over 50 of max profit if price stays in a decent range Um, so that's the plan in nat gas. So hopefully we can book a nice profit on that working our way back to profits uh apple We've got a uh short delta play here. It's a long put vertical prices a little out of range with with the rally that we've seen In apple since we rolled this last We are heading into earnings. We're going to hold this through earnings And I think we'll probably get a little bit of a bounce into earnings there as well Uh, but then after earnings, we'll see what happens, but we'll be holding this We're holding it for that short delta exposure Uh, same thing with john deere. I mean this thing's just been on a crazy run But we're holding this for short delta looking for some cyclicality in the big green machines Uh, hopefully we see a little bit of downside in that For long this one is just inside range since we rolled it But got plenty of room for some uh for some downside benefit there D i a we've got a couple of short call verticals as well One is just out of range here And this one is just out of outside of range So, uh, those are both in november got plenty of time just holding those for that short delta exposure Mentioned i w m microsoft cues smh. We've got a short strangle here in smh We're up a few hundred dollars since we did our last roll if we get a little bit more downside back to center That would benefit this trade. Otherwise just waiting for some more time to pass sp y I've been looking to add another iron condor here But I may just I may wait till after the election to do that because if we added one we would do that out in december And obviously that's going to take us uh through the election So I'm going to probably wait until after the election and then add one in december Uh, this one here in november is hanging out just in the upper end of the range So we'll we'll just let this one play out for now and then uh potentially add one uh after the election X bi we've got this short strangle which is adjusted into a straddle right at the 105 strike price hanging out in the upper end of the range could use a little downside action to get back to center there And then lastly xlk So this is a long put vertical price just outside of range So those are all of our trades. Those are all the alerts As far as day trading I was traveling this week. So only day traded today only stream live today Um, and but if you are in the day trading and you attend that room, make sure you check out the live stream room In fact, let me bring it up here Inside the live stream room. You'll see this schedule. Make sure you're checking this next week We're going to do something a little bit different Monday, tuesday, wednesday are all 8 30 am central as normal But on thursday and friday, we are going to do it a little bit later in the morning Couple of things so one i'll be getting our Most of our alert portfolio Trades out within the first hour of the day and then this will allow us to jump on the live stream an hour later And and take advantage of some runners And I know that some of the members have wanted to see me manage those a little bit later in the morning So we'll be starting an hour later and going an hour later in the morning in the live stream So make sure you check that out and then um Into next week Couple things we are going to So tuesday the third is obviously election day So on the fourth and fifth We are going to start first thing at the market open 8 30 am, but we're probably going to go longer in the day Uh, especially if there's I mean if there's not a lot going on what we will probably just cut out a little bit Kind of normal time But if there's some cool stuff some action going on We want to be able to take advantage of that so we may We may stream for a half day from 8 30 am to noon or something like that Uh, we'll just kind of play it by ear. Uh, and then friday, uh, I'll be offline No live stream on friday the sixth So make sure you keep your eye on that schedule. I'll be populating The following weeks here as we get closer And uh, look forward to seeing you all there If you didn't see the day trading recap today, we always post that in the facebook group So you can check that out there if you guys have any questions Let me know otherwise have a good weekend and we will catch you next week