 Thank you, Adam. So this is the year of the Olympics. This is a relay. So Adam has passed the baton. I have it here And so what we want to do is we're going to take the implications of those ensembles as we're called 400 runs of the IGSM leads to 6,850 year sequences we have to run and So that that requires a large team and this is a number of them are in the room here and The we can go forward and talk about that. So what we used to do what I want to talk about is bash myself This is what was done for the World Bank and looking at multi-sector investment opportunities in the Zambezi River and Using the classic IPCC techniques all we're able to do is look at the extreme event or the extreme cases Or the worst-case scenario. So we would look at what is the wet of all the IPCC GCM? What is the wet one and what is the dry one and you can look here and see as Adam showed? This is the only information we're providing to decision makers and in some they're on both sides of the both signs Here there is very little change And so what policy makers come back and they say What is the likelihood of that if that's the extreme do I respond to that? They they do not like this. We we can do it mathematically. It's really nice and easy to do But this is the classic approach and we want to go beyond that to give some more information so we can make investment decisions So as we look at these various things these shortcomings when we make decisions on hydropower roads Agriculture we are doing a risk-based approach currently we use something called design storms the return period of one in ten Year one in one in a hundred year for flooding we make those decisions with risks in mind What are those things saying to risk? We're not able to address that. So what has happened is the team? developed by wider the external director Channing aren't brought us together and we have this framework which is to look at things analytically So what Adam pointed out was this box right here What I'm going to talk about now is what goes on in the dash box and then Channing's going to talk about What comes out of that and what leads to that so we take these things of temperature in precip in fossil fuel prices But we have to take them both in terms of monthly values Adam showed seasonal We look at monthly values here And we take those monthly values in temperature and precip together and we look at how they'll influence Stream flows how that would then be looking at flooding in particular We'll look at that in a minute how these temperatures and precip affect Agriculture in terms of irrigation demands and rain fed yields how they affect energy in terms of hydropower as they come Into runoff and then come here also the evaporation from reservoirs And then how these floods and these precip together will impact roads and the pavements from pre from rainfall And then flooding from our streams and bringing that all together and putting it into there So that's why I'm here because I am the translator. I have degree in engineering But I also spent time and got a degree in economics, and that's why I sit between them as well So I'm hoping I'm not going to drop the baton right now I'm going to go through and all that we can talk about these details. So this is what Adam Talked about and so you can get a picture Here's the Zambezi Basin and in the Zambezi Basin We have this western part and the eastern part and these are some examples that remind you of what Adam just talked about And here is the case of Precipitation distribution between two scenarios. So what does it mean for the runoff in the Zambezi? What is the flow that's in that river and this is for the West Zambezi this part from Zambia parts of Angola and and a little bit of Zimbabwe culminating that would be entering the Cariba reservoir as well as the the development on the Cofue that the Zambia has looked at and this is a case where the difference between the unconstrained and the 450 or or that's the level one stabilization is not much difference in The mean impacts the modes are about I mean the modes are about the same But the important thing is look what happens at the tails There's a significant shift in the extremes between the unconstrained or no no policy and Not so much on the lower end, but we're seeing less likelihood of of drying, but it increased Much more decrease in in a wedding We go ahead here and look on the eastern Zambezi in here. We see an interesting thing. We see a shift Almost the exact same distribution, but a shift over of the mode So we're having a mean shift to the drier side and a decrease in this flooding But also a decrease in the lower end. So basically we're shifting the distribution So this is really important the Zambezi is not a unified body. It's not homogeneous It's changing we're here. We're seeing right here between east and west and it even changes by basin by basin So now if we look at this at flooding for the west Zambezi Look at this again the mode stay the same, but a big reduction in the the tail So what does that mean? Well, that's really important when we look at flooding impacts on road infrastructure And one of the things that people tend to think about for climate change in water resources It's droughts. We're worried about droughts and lower flow We are seeing in our research and hopefully the document in our next our next special issue It's flooding that is most damaging and Channing will talk about that because it destroys infrastructure So not only do you lose? Economic activity that year you have to take money that you're going to use to develop your economy to repair the past So there's a double impact on you So we have these flooding and so we use this approach developed by Professor Chanowski to look at the The impact on the road infrastructure, which goes directly into the economic model We then say all right. What's going on in terms of the the river? We're going to look at the Zambia the the river in Zimbabwe and the river in Zambia and we see between the unconstrained at level one Distribution the runoffs again the cutting down of the higher flows in both cases We're seeing this behavior. So you can see the country here Here's Zambia is in Bobway and we're going to talk in a minute about Mozambique and the thing about Mozambique only a small part of it Is part of the Zambezi Basin, but it's very large Kaborabasa hydropower plant very important to the energy Infrastructure of Mozambique, but the other thing it's downstream of everybody else So if they're going to adapt to climate change, are they going to think about what they're going to do to Mozambique? That's another issue. So again, we see this probably Bubbalistically the next thing is what happens to irrigation demand, which is a combination of temperature and precip precip goes up We don't need so much but if it gets warmer we need more and what we see is a Increase in the demand for irrigation in Mozambique under the unconstrained emission and if we have the level one Stabilization we say a big shift back to almost a maybe five millimeters Per year and so a big shift of the mean back this way and we lose this tail again So we're seeing this behavior in the stabilization is bringing the PDFs in So this is water resource systems This is a model of the Zambezi Basin and Alyssa McCluskey. Will you raise your hand, please? This was done by Alyssa who's part of our team at the Institute for Climate and Civil Systems and This is using a tool where we model all these components and all their interaction because it matters what you do here on What happens here what you do here? So this is classic water systems We now take all these probabilistic funds through that and produce impacts in 2050 on hydropower development and So you can see right here here in Zambezi the in the unconstrained emissions We have Distribution around zero with a little bit of a table here But with the level one we see almost no negative impacts on hydropower and its positive impacts on hydropower While we look in Zambia and both of them have a mean in the negative side But there are some the unconstrained has a little peak here in a tail in the positive And you see that the distribution is different for each of the countries So as we talk to policy makers that's important But then what we get out of this is if we look at all the hydropower together what we see is a Distribution that will help us look as we look at regional power pools and in cooperation in the basin So one of the messages from a water resource side and from a hydropower side is here is the probability Distribution we can make decisions about our reservoirs and what to do, but it also tells us if we cooperate Amongst the the riparian countries in the basin we can go ahead and make some benefits The other thing it tells us is we don't know what the future is going to be so we can do some clever things in design one of the things is you design a small dam and then you put bigger dams on top or You build the dam with multiple outflows because we don't know how much water is going to come out The high as one dam has their outflow here and if it ever drops below here This water is not usable we could put this in when we're building it at almost zero cost But to do it later hydropower leave it blank and you can put it in later So these kind of adaptations we can take on So what we see is that there's no single answer related to water resource infrastructure We need to make flexible design This variability is very very important and as Adam pointed out the means you have to be careful because the means mean zero Many times means are zero so if you just look at that there's no impact But it's these tails that affect us in design and each of the sectors behave differently And sometimes people say oh, I'm going to adapt for the agriculture by irrigating But then the hydropower people say I'm going to adapt by building some more reservoirs and then you find out There's no water at all. So when you do sectoral based adaptation It's it's almost the null set that may not exist So where there's a need to move to economy wide multi-sector approach through economy wide models, which is what Channing will talk about how they all these things feed into it Thank you