 Good morning, good morning, good morning It's time to rise and shine Good morning, good morning, good morning I hope you're feeling fine Good morning, get up, get out of bed It's time to wake up, you sleepyhead Pick up is a brand new day And we can't miss out on that day to decay Get your day planned out to be at your best And you gotta make sure you got the right back test What? This sleep away makes sure you're awake Cause we don't have time for fat think of mistakes And ratio condos that mark your gaps up Look for Uncle Rick Small gap down means it's time for a jump But if it doesn't set up more than everybody You know why we came here today Now let's get to it Yeah Let's go What's up everybody? Happy Monday morning September 18th Hope everybody had a good weekend Got a few things going on this morning I'm gonna do the AM ratio iron condor Monday morning version I've got a 3.5 DTE double calendar That looks like it's gonna come off for a nice profit It was looking like the JSP's and the duck might set up Price has bounced a little bit So it may or may not It's kind of borderline But if it does I will look at taking a duck and a JSP First order of business then for me is I will buy the longs For my AM iron condor So for the Monday I've got a 20 stop So that's a 12 by 8 for me So I always like to put in my longs pre-market Hopefully they get filled right at the bell Then I'm ready to Ready to go with my OCO order After the bell rings Looks like we're gonna be a 10, 20 25 or 30 wide Between the shorts So I'm actually gonna use my quiet lunch template So I need to change a few things Alright 40 seconds till the bell Got a 6, 7 DTE that will take off Wednesday That's up nicely as well 3, 2, 1 bell Alright so my longs Are in So I'm gonna go 30 wide I need to change my target to 50 Stop to 20 25 wide here Need to redo a couple of templates To be a little faster here but Alright filled on the 44, 60 44, 35 filled at 21, 45 So I'm in on the AM ratio The duck and the JSP's technically did not set up So I will pass on those I'm gonna go ahead and get my 3, 5 DTE double calendar filled Alright filled on that at 18, 10 So I just posted that in the Calendar channel Nice winner there Alright SPX open in a little quiet So far VIX is up 5.5 Up to 14.5 A normal Monday pop VIX D up 17% S&P slightly red NASDAQ slightly green Russell slightly red Dow slightly green A little Christmas tree action going I didn't take a duck Because I needed SPX to open down Between 0.1 and 0.5% I was looking at ES I guess it did didn't it I was looking at ES pre-market I didn't really pay attention to The official open of SPX But yeah it definitely qualified For both JSP and Ducks Could have been taken So based on that I'm still trading I'm gonna put my order at 5.85 for a duck If I get a little bit of a down Maybe I should get filled Yeah thanks Marash It was not even paying attention To the official SPX open Just looking at ES So I've got an order on a duck At 5.85 If price Pulls back a little bit I should get filled on that It runs away to the upside I will not I can get in my duck Within the first 15 minutes So let's see if it Comes down and gets me filled My order is at 5.85 Currently trading at about 5.55 A little drop in price JSP's I could still get in as well I just got in some JSP's as well My JSP's Just got filled on my duck 5.85 So I'm in ducks and JSP's Trying to set my OCO up on my JSP's here Alright There we go Got my orders in Michael Todd for my duck Here I'll just copy this here There you go I just posted my Duck order It's exactly like the back test 60 60 Delta Shorts and then 25 Delta Shorts on the put side Alright so I got everything on That I wanted to this morning Plus we got the DKS at 9.25 central Got a couple of time flies on From last Friday That did not get any Theta decay yet This volatility increase VIX up to 14.65 Up over 6% Price coming down To lows of day Pretty close to where we opened For my AM ratio My shorts are 44.60 calls 44.35 puts JSP's they got a wide stop So they got some They got some room to breathe Although yeah Looking at the price action On the daily chart doesn't look like That inviting for JSP's as well But you never know Oh we need a little bounce on those things We get out of those with the profit We get up to about 44.60 We'd probably get out of our JSP's At 50% Little 15 point bounce Expected move to start the day Is about 19 We opened at 40 call up 45 Before T6 To the downside Well the chief's got to win this weekend So that's that's good news That first start Not so good This one a little bit better Got our two big boys back Chris Jones and Travis Kelsey Don't act like you don't know America's team Michael I got S&Ps down 6.5 NASDAQ down 13 Russell down 9 Dow is still slightly green Gold and silver flat Notes and bonds flat Oil and natty gas Up about a percent Grains down What was that you were Elliott what was your What are you posting on soybeans What was the big deal there 5 minute drop out of the gate Euro and pound flat Bitcoin up 3% Bitcoin getting a little overnight move up Little 10 point range so far in SPX Yeah it looks like Getting some elevated IV and soybeans It's not a bad idea Elevated to it IV across the board Oil still going up Yeah I like that I like that Elliott Sell a little premium in soybeans Go with the 95 dayers 1500 calls Down to the 1220 puts See what kind of skew we're dealing with here ZSF 24 I think we'll be one to one Build at 13 even So the reason I didn't do two to one puts to calls On this one is Does have a little put skew but If you do two to one that kind of Excuse it too much the other way So I'm just going to do one to one I just posted that in the option selling Channel Good work Elliott Anybody else have any good ideas for me today I like I like trade ideas on a Monday morning SPX kind of bouncing up to the top end of its daily range Got a Reverse hedgehog and gold It's got seven DTE left on it We're up a couple hundred if we get a It's hoping we might get a little Little bonus bump out of gold today But it's pretty flat We'll probably close that out today I don't want to give Give away that couple hundred bucks in profit that we're up Lot of profit potential to the upside though I wouldn't I would not blame you for wanting to hold Although the expected move to let's call it Well to expiration Twenty-fifth you're not Most likely going to get into the big Profit area but You know could get it to say a thousand bucks Still within the expected move made a big move up I will probably just close today In some good decay coming into the AM ratio Still down on the JSP's Market kind of dropped right after I put those on And a little bit on the deck A little bounce up to about forty four sixty I was hoping we'd see a little more decay than we did on our time flies That we put on Friday but this ball's staying pumped today So far We do have our buddy Jerome taking the stand on Wednesday Which I'm sure has something to do with it Today Let me bring the calendar down Today we got a whole lot of nothing Tomorrow a whole lot of nothing Wednesday one p.m. Central FOMC One thirty FOMC press conference Thursday unemployment claims pre-market Friday PMI Manufacturing Report just after the market opens VXX getting a little pop too It's mine seeing a little Little volatility spike pre-FOMC and get on some VXX vertical spreads What I really like to see on VXX to put on those verticals Is I like obviously for the price of VXX to be going up Because that means volatility is spiking But also the volatility on VXX to be high You know kind of in that call it seventy to a hundred On the implied volatility indicator You know even on the twenty one day I'd be good with it getting up there on the twenty one day I'd start to Start to layer into some Yeah for volatility to stay pumped like this With no range is interesting I would say if we get any kind of little bounce That premium is just gonna get sucked out Oh yeah yeah I have I actually Done quite a few of that Sometimes UVXY sometimes VXX I usually gravitate to which everyone's priced higher Because you got more premium so I like VXX right now It's trading at twenty one UVXY is at fourteen I assume you set those up with like no risk to the upside Or very little That's how I used to do it I just kind of gravitated more just doing verticals I mean you get that Anytime you get a volatility spike you almost always get that Nice contraction so I've just kind of gravitated more to verticals Or you do no risk to the downside got it See I I always did no risk to the upside because There's always that situation where you get the You know the The market drop or the situation where volatility just explodes So I wanted to Protect the upside of that Whereas I would position my my short strikes lower So I'd still get you know price comes down I would get that Decay into the peak of my tent By the way help me pronounce that help me pronounce your name I always look at it And I'm always scared to say it because I don't know how to say it Is it Daedalus Daedalus Daed Daedalus Daedalus Okay got it cool Ryan P is there a way for profit to land at the max profit of that profit tent you're looking at Are you talking about this time fly that's on my screen No that's not even a That's not even a pipe dream I'm looking on these time flies I'm looking for quick profits five to ten percent You know you're talking about price pinning it forty four seventy at expiration On September 29th that's just that's a lottery ticket I don't I don't play that game The whole basis of the strategy is just Getting Getting in You know And getting Five to ten percent profits really managing risk to on the Once where price starts to move Now If you do Ten contracts you want to take nine of them off And play a little lotto with the last one Sure Have a party I used to do a lot of that but I've Come to realize that just sticking to the strategy that's higher probability Typically works out better in the long run About four Getting some decay coming into this one now might be it about Depending on where you get filled It's kind of kind of jumps around here but Probably about four percent profit right now Starting to see a little decay in our puts now for you just get a little bounce up to forty four sixty That would that would be good for everything That'd be good for all three zero DTE positions I guess the AM ratio is good where it's at but The duck for the JSP's Still just kind of bouncing in this ten point range my friends Yep SJ that those are from tradehawk by the way We'll be we'll be sending out more information but We've got on the books a Webinar With Lex from from a tradehawk trader He's the one that's developed he basically he developed tradehawk It was a separate company and then they Trader ended up buying them and so Lex is with Lex and tradehawk are actually part of trader now So he will be leading the web class for us and the date on that is I think October 12th So a few weeks Yeah thirty minutes after the market closes So three thirty p.m. central on October 12th We'll be posting and sending more information on that but You're interested you can go ahead and mark your calendar for that one should be good Unlike in the tradehawk platform It's a I mean there's some you know it's like anything you got to get used to it There's some little quirks but there's actually a few things that I like better than thinkorswim Right now I'm just trading Calendars on it I wouldn't consider trading zero DTE on it yet They are working on some of their OCO orders Functionality But Things like calendars butterflies I mean Anything that you don't need any complex OCO orders for Very good Zero commissions yep And I had them they also I was able to get them to waive the monthly fee for navigation trading numbers so No monthly fee as long as your accounts funded over five thousand bucks or something like that And we'll be talking about all the details of this on the webinar but Yeah no monthly fee zero commissions for Options Equities There is a There's a thirty five cent I think it's don't quote me on this thirty five cents I think for SPX Plus the exchange fee so SPX does You know index options do you have a Do you have a commission but Like SPY Apple any Any American options no zero commissions Yeah all brokers use I shouldn't say all but I mean you're tasty tasty lot tasty works Or tasty trade whether they call themselves now tasty trade toss swab I mean most brokers get paid Make most of their money on payment for order flow And traders no different the differences they've decided their model is just going to be only be paid payment for order flow not commissions And the the whole issue I had with them For the last two years was a So the other part of their model business model is they don't you know like thinkorswim is TD Ameritrade's platform right Trader was was going off a model that they were basically a developers API broker so you know Bunch of different people have tried to build platforms that are executed through trader and nobody nobody really could get it You know I mean as far as like the functionality at least for me the function you know I mean I mean there There are a little unique boutique specialty platforms out there that that execute through trader but nothing that I Could find any value in for the type of trading that we do Tradehawk has been in the works for quite a while they they had a different version and they kind of upgraded it to what they call Tradehawk 2.0 now and and you know they're they're basically trying to rival rival toss eventually they're certainly not there yet So if you have expectations that they're going to be as good as toss just put those away because that's that's not even It's not going to be that close but I think over time they will continue to get there and in fact You know for the last couple of year and a half call it I've been you know having calls with the trade your guys and Lex with Tradehawk and and every almost every single suggestion that I've made on the platform so far has been implemented So they really are they really want to build out the platform that us traders really want Build out the features and stuff so that that's pretty cool you know anytime I kind of see something whether it's a little Quirky aspect or anything I just I record a loom a screen share and I send it over to Lex and sometimes within a week It's in the platform so that's pretty awesome The other thing they'll be doing you know like like I said we'll be doing a Be doing a webinar and then put the other thing that they're gonna that I wanted to make sure that they had for for our Members was you know just top-notch support and so the other thing that they're going to do is you're going to be able To sign up for one-on-one sessions with with somebody or from from tradehawk to a Answer all your individual questions get you set up make sure you understand all the nuances of the platform On a kind of a one-on-one or we could do small groups or whatever but they're willing to do one-on-one for our For our members to to get everybody set up so that should be pretty cool Brinto box in the house So buddy it's been a while all right getting a little bump little bump bump JSP's are now profitable Ducky duck it's profitable. Let's see on my duck targeting 465 to close half it's currently trading at 530 Got a new high of day for SPX I said before if we get up to about 44 60 that would hit our JSP's or if we just stayed here for a while Are you in queues or boys, huh? What do you what are you primarily primarily trading these days Brent? Still doing a lot of strangles Ducks Oh nice. Are you guys still in school or did you graduate? USC I assume Okay, USC Let me play in prime time here. Was that next week or the week after Saturday? Yeah, that'd be fun We're about to see how good Colorado really is Been a lot of talking Lot of talking I mean TCU was definitely a big win but now it's time for the big boys On our CL short strangle we're getting close to 50% of max on the puts but not quite there yet Minnesota now, huh? Oh, yeah for trading for sure Although when I do travel to the West Coast I do I do like I mean I get up early anyway, but so I do like I do sometimes like Oh market opens at 6 30 a.m. I'm done by 1 30 I have the whole a whole day to do stuff after the market closes I do kind of like that aspect. I'm not sure if I'd want to live in that time zone, but it is a it is nice to Travel to you sometimes. Yeah, stay in touch Brent. Oh now Hawaii. Yeah, I would not I wouldn't I wouldn't like that I'll let Tim wise deal with that Argentina What what time is it in Argentina right now? 1117 a.m. Okay Not bad Get to sleep in Vegas Michelle when I put in my lungs pre market, how do I choose my strikes? I'm just going you know I go 60 to 70 points away from the shorts So, you know before you know SPX Option prices kind of freeze up 15 minutes before the bell so Prior to that I just get an idea of okay. Here's my Get an idea of where my shorts are going to be based on you know approximately being $4 right which is what I'm targeting for my for my entries and then I I just take from there I go on the call side I go up 60 to 70 points And try to you know if there's if it's right between I say 60 to 70 because if it's right between You know five and ten cents. I'm gonna go with the five cent ones And then same thing on the put side. I just look 60 to 70 points away And I buy those just put the order in Pre-market and then I just watch ES You know making you know, obviously if it moves 15 minutes before the bell. I mean if it moves 10 points I'm I know that I'm gonna need to adjust my strikes by You know 10 strikes 10 points on the strikes as well. So That's all I do SPX still kind of hovering near the top of its range We got the DKS coming in about five minutes There's my DKS alarm Five-minute warning I Accidentally had a tighter stop than I meant to so it ended up working out in my favor, but Unintentionally, I like to call those happy happy accidents like Bob Ross used to say 3M ratio should not be down a lot should be up Right minds up minds up three thousand bucks Gotcha So as of now my short strikes for the DKS would be 44 65 calls 44 50 puts Give it another couple minutes here All right, so 44 65 calls and 44 50 puts Man premium dropped quick So the 805 on my DKS 805 685 should be profit target one 525 should be profit target two Stop should be 2415 Yeah close enough All right, so on my JSP's once I get to 20% With my stop down to a hundred All right, so for my JSP's once I get to about 20% profit Target I move my stop loss to 100% so It was I got there on the JSP's My duck it's not quite hit 20% yet It's trading at about 510 profit targets at 465 My DKS my shorts are 44 65 calls 44 50 puts I mean we have got a Newzer on our hands today my friends So far just perfect for what we're doing. I was trying to trade directionally. This would be brutal, but we're not So it's good. It makes sense. There's absolutely no scheduled news today or tomorrow Calm before the FOMC storm Yeah, I don't I'd have to see data on that Elliott I know I mean I feel that way too but I've been my feelings have been proven wrong by data so many times that I don't know I stay the junkie Sometimes my anecdotal thoughts about a strategy are so strong. I just know how it's going to test and then I actually put the data to it. I'm like, oh, that's not even Not even close It's a very humbling feeling. I know I'm right. I'm not I know I'm right. No, no, no, you're not I sort of see a little decay coming into our time flies as well Vix was up six now. It's only up three Yep, I'm in JSP's theta junkie. I Think some others are as well. Yeah, we got I just uh, you know Tim's got his style That's certainly not my style for me. It's just way too Selective and filtered based on back tests. I just I'm more of a probabilities trader So I'm gonna I'm gonna trade more what the probabilities play out Not that you know, that's the right way or the wrong way. I mean he's got the right way for him I've got the right way for me. So It's really just about figuring out what what's best for you Both will work both can work. I should say my ways worked for me for a long time and He's you know, he has more confidence based on the back tests being more selective and You know, the other thing is, you know, based on he said this many times, you know, based on his lifestyle You know, he wants to trade He wants to trade less I prefer if the odds are in my favor to trade more I just I have not I haven't not well for one we don't we have we don't I haven't We don't you know, we have data going back to May right or if you're just using year to date I just I don't have there's no data Conclusive or enough for me to say even even Thursdays, you know to me I just I still I don't think not trading on Thursday. I still don't think that's conclusive May change as me as we continue to have more data on these things My thinking could certainly evolve, but at this point we'll continue to hammer it out every day Yeah, yeah, I think I definitely think based on the way volatility opens on different days of the week That that the morning sessions can there's a pattern there For me, I just think for power hour specifically You know, I don't think gaps matter that much. I don't think they have weak matters that much If at all, it's all about it's probably staying in the range at the end of the day or not And I think it does 55 to 60% of the time Yeah, I just I just mentioned that to Elliott Ryan P. I think I think I'd need to see more data. I think that's You know, I certainly kind of like Elliott was saying I feel that way But I'm not I'm not sure that that's I've been proven wrong by my feelings have been proven wrong by data so many times But I don't I try not to go off of feelings anymore All right, Ducky duck still hanging around Still hanging around that 510 515 price. I need 465 to get that a half Just kind of got to stay up here for a while. Let some more decay come out My JSP still need a little bump higher Don't have to quite get up to 44 60 anymore though Maybe 44 58 is the beauty of theta decay The longer it sits here, the less it has to move in your favor My AM ratio I'm looking for 50% Looks like some of you guys are hitting your 40s So profit target on my AM ratio is at 1070 and my spreads currently trading at 1250 So I need another couple bucks to come out of my AM ratio All right, my friends, I think I'm going to jump off here Hoping to pop some profit targets before we jumped off But it's just going to give us a little slow decay Like I said on the JSP's Get up move up to 44 57 44 58 that should hit 50% The iron duck is close to hitting 20% with a little bit more decay AM ratio iron condors over 40% I'm looking for 50% to get out of half And reduce stop So if we stay right here, that should happen shortly And then lastly the DKS Just need a little move higher to hit first profit target and reduce stop on that one So good shape on all of them just haven't hit anything yet So we'll be back for power hour at 150 p.m. Sharp central time Look forward to seeing you all then have a good rest of your day. Take care