 So welcome again to the final weekly charting analysis webinar of 2015. Been an interesting start to the week. We've had the Spanish elections, which of course is a bit of a fallout initially in European markets. But we've recovered back into positive territory. There was a big massive route in U.S. stocks at the end of last week. So we're awaiting the open of U.S. markets to see how they fare. All the while, I'm flipping through the risk warnings on the screen here. And just a reminder that any questions at all, just feel free to send it through to the chat or the Q&A box in the webinar software. Okay. Well, just a little interesting by-the-by working on some summary pieces for 2015 and a little review, looking forward kind of thing. This is something that you have to look forward to if you so desire to look at it, was something I'm working on for the IPOs of last year. Some of the biggest IPOs. World Pay was the biggest one. Auto Trader as well. As you can see, pretty much dominated by those top two. We just had We're There, which had a bit of a rough start, but Pop Tire, not too impressively so far. It's only just listed, so we can't hold it too much against them. But really, almost all the IPOs of this year in the red, none of them earning money from their listing price except World Pay and Auto Trader, the two biggest. So interesting theme there. It's been a good year in terms of the market cap added by IPOs. But with this kind of performance, there might be a struggle to raise more money next year. So maybe a bit of a downturn in IPOs for those of you. Either trade those through our system. We normally list them on the first day of official trading, or if you have them somehow, you're able to participate on the actual IPO itself. Then, yeah, interesting year. Back to markets of the hour. As I mentioned, the Spanish election has been a boom of an issue. It initially caused a lower open across Europe, but now only Spain is down every other market in the green, including the FTSE 100. Obviously, the big event of last week was the Fed rate hike meeting. We've basically been waiting for that the whole year. And the event itself, a little bit of a damp squid, just a sort of general relief rally, I think. Probably see it best in the Dow Jones U.S. 30 chart. This was the week, this was last week, leading up to it on the day of the decision, finished higher. But then, Timber, the last two days of last week, we came right back down to those lows of November. And we're a precipice right now. I'm getting a rebound of these lows, as you might expect, but we did close right at them, which is a pretty negative sign. And this is basically a double top pattern. I'd alluded to it when we were first down here. We've got a bounce back, okay, back into range trading conditions. Didn't make it to the top of the range, first bearish sign, bearish engulfing candlestick on the day, big follow-through down to the bottom of the range. So, you know, it's choppy Christmas holiday season-type trading right now, so may get a break, but I would say more likely a fake out, you know, because there just isn't the sort of liquidity in the market to follow through on these kinds of moves. A lot of choppiness this time of year. More sort of mean reversion type time for trading. You know, if you're a trend follower, it's a little tricky. And so I suspect probably there's not going to be a breakdown in two-thin-year, but, you know, it could be wrong. That's, that was pretty strong sentiment. They carried the market down here. And as I said, double top would pretty much, you know, I might as well use the drawing tool here. You know, if we're shooting that split, what am I doing there? Starting wrong. If we call this the height of the pattern, nope, doing that wrong as well. I'm going to adjust that a second, I think. Okay. We're looking pretty much conservatively, I would say, in this sort of 16-270, you know, you could call it 16-300 to be conservative as a possible target on a breakdown here. And obviously that's not too far away from the lows in August and September, the 16,000 round number. So that, you know, that could be quite the sell-off. Should be closed below there. Probably need a, you know, obviously a daily close, but the safest result would be a weekly close before believing in that result. Off a push lower. So yes, pre-fed, post-fed. You know, again, a little bit symptomatic of just choppy markets at the end of the year, but also just not quite knowing what to make of this rate hike just because, you know, normally it's considered quite a good thing, the first rate hike, because it shows that the economy's going great guns, the central bank's trying to slow down the economy because it's doing so well. Not really the case this time. Quite a few problems with the US economy. And, you know, that's, you know, because of course the concern that maybe the Fed is making an error here by actually choosing to raise rates at this point in time. So that, you know, that was the big event last week. It's spread into the other markets and we'll look at those charts as well. If we are on the equities front, let's pull up the UK 100. That's where I am, of course. This is the daily chart for the UK 100. I actually posted this through our new dot-com website if you've been on that one. We've got a new re-slicked format of a news analysis page on there and, you know, posted this rising trend line as a possible inflection point. Did get a sell-off there, but actually, you know, undoing a good amount of that today, as you can see the kind of general environment is that we're in a range trade here. And so we bounced off the bottom of the range, came into that trend line resistance, sold-off. Now we're trying to, you know, we're challenging it again just to see if actually we can push to the top of the range again and we're just fully sideways. I suspect we probably can break these highs, but I'm feeling like maybe there's going to be another sell-off in the range, perhaps at the 6200 or perhaps up here at the more like the 6300 type areas will be places I'd be looking for. Maybe not outright sell-orders, but maybe looking for some signs of weakness through a reversal candlestick pattern or indicate to sell-off. But that's a general state of affairs in the UK 100. Now obviously we've made a lower low here. So the kind of general status is a little, you know, and this is the thing I'm going to show you in most of these indices is that, you know, we're in a kind of shop environment where it's been basically here a higher, you know, we haven't finished, I don't consider this a low just yet, but, you know, more than likely it's going to be. You know, we've kind of formed a lower low there after having formed a higher low and then connecting those two peaks is kind of bearish. You know, just going on the very simplistic concept that, you know, we're looking at trying to judge the trend here and it's lower lows, lower highs for a downtrend, which we're basically in according to this weekly chart, but those two lower lows and highs preceded higher highs and higher lows. So if we are in a downtrend, we're just beginning and, you know, I wouldn't be too surprised just to see us bring another higher high here just because the market is quite choppy. You know, if you've been to these webinars before, you've seen that we've broken this longer-term rising trend line and so that's, you know, that's the severity of what we're dealing with here. If we push below here, you know, that's basically confirmed that that's the retest and we're heading lower and I would suspect we head back down to these four 800-times levels. You know, but again, that's a longer-term thing. Don't base your short-term trades on that. Moving swiftly over to Europe, you know, the main, one of the most popular entities here, Germany. So the thing here where we had that sell-off on Friday, but you know, that was kind of the, here was the pre-fed move, here was the post-fed move and then bounce them back again today. But, you know, these two kind of bizarre looking lines are again sort of indicating where we're kind of diverging here because we're putting a lower low but the last peak that we put in was a higher high. So a higher high followed by a lower low basically telling us it's not really a trend. And so difficult to be directional and the higher probability trades are just at either end near the top, you know, near the tops for shorts, near the bottoms for buys as in basically a range-bound environment. Now that could all change bit like the FTSE where we're basically looking for areas that the downtrend could resume. Start with the daily. So here we broke down. You know, we were making decent, higher highs, higher lows. Broke down through this low. Basically came up retested, pushed a little bit through it, dropped down again down to this peak here. Recovered. Are we going to be able to sell off again and make a new low? Or, you know, are we just pushing back and again just range-bound shoppiness? So to me, this broken level followed by the peak on December 7th. Probably the two areas the market would look to sell off again were it going to a more sort of aggressive downtrend-time environment above there. You know, I would suspect that we're just heading somewhere back towards the top of the range. You know, anywhere leading into the top of the range and a little bit above it has some scope for the market to sell off. Hold on. Yeah, sort of chat message coming through there yet. Cheers for that, Ruth. Yes, currency market analysis on its way. Basically the idea is, sorry, I normally mention it at the start, is that we just cover the most popular indices, commodities and effects. So they're all coming up. Any particular pair that you wanted to look at, definitely let me know. So we're pretty much done with the indices there. If we are, you know, we may as well jump straight to FX even though there is a notable downdraft in oil prices today with Brent in his lowest since 2004. So we're talking about 11 year lows for the world benchmark oil price here. Major bear market in place. But we will jump to that in a second after looking at FX. There's a few economic releases of note this week, but you know, which actually, you know, if you are trading the news result or in and around it at least, can provide some opportunity around the Christmas trading in my opinion because yeah, the moves don't follow through, but you do get some moves because of the thinner liquidity. And so we do have the final GDP for the U.S. tomorrow and the U.K. Sorry, the U.K. one's later in the week, but the final U.S. tomorrow. We've got durable goods, housing data, the final U.K. GDP result is on Wednesday and on, you know, obviously it's all pretty much costed into, you know, into sort of up to Wednesday with we've got a half day for the U.K. stock market on Christmas Eve. And so yeah, it's pretty much, we're pretty much looking up to Wednesday here into a few notable results on Wednesday, consumer sentiment as well on Wednesday. So that's, durable goods probably being the big one and then also GDP tomorrow. This is the final one, so it's at least important. We're actually expecting a little bit of a slowdown, nothing too much to write home about, but still we'll raise slight issues about whether the Fed did the right thing by raising rates and, you know, we could see the dollar quite sensitive to that. We're still at that tipping point in the dollar index, pushing towards where, you know, we've got into around 99, just underneath that 100 level that's been a barrier for so long. You know, once you get above that 100, that's really a game changer, I think, and that's probably going to coordinate with Euro-USD heading down to parity. I'm not saying it's going to happen, but the confluence of those two events probably would happen together. Talking of the Euro, let's plug that chart. Not much in the way Euro is in data, to be honest. We have the German TPI data today. You know, that came in in line with the expectations, not quite such a slowdown, so almost in a way supporting the idea of the ECB not doing as much at their last meeting. So on that, on that, kind of what we're dealing with at the moment is just the 108 handle in Euro-USD, where that's where we pulled back to, after, you know, this was the ECB disappointment day, obviously, the 300 plus PIP rally, and we've pulled back since then. We haven't really managed to push much beyond the 110 figure, and, you know, that's basically causing us some trouble at the moment. We've pulled back to that same 108 handle. Below there, you know, you will probably go back down to the origins of the breakout down, you know, 10640 Tiber would be the next logical support for me on that, along with some FIBO levels, but still I tend to use the FIBO and actually use this as a confluence with other significant levels, and I tend to think that would probably be where we're heading, if not lower. Obviously, the sentiment on Euro's been bearish for so long, it's going to take more than just one move to get us up back into the top of the range and looking for a breakout through that 117 that we reached back in August. The ECB disappointed, but they did still add stimulus, so they're still much more dovish than the US, which obviously have just raised rates, albeit with the sort of dovish tone that suggested there aren't going to be that many rate hikes to follow. So, you know, kind of similarly here, we've made a higher high, but we've come back down to test the low, basically range band environment. You know, I'm assuming a bounce back towards the 110 handle. I don't imagine there's going to be any real justification for a big breakdown, other than people really get behind the dollar ball trade after the third rate hike. Maybe I'll skip straight to yen this time, because obviously the big news at the end of last week was the Bank of Japan surprising with additional stimulus, which spurred a big drop in the yen, only for people to realize that actually the stimulus package was more of a sort of readjustment of the current package, just them announcing they're going to do buying some Japanese ETFs, which aren't really that popular compared to just the typical equities in Japan. They're just sort of readjusting what they're buying according to the size of the market, I think. And so investors soon realized that and actually undid the gains of the day, and then for what turned out to be quite a large decline. But I think it's been a bit of a reaction either way, just because it was a surprise announcement. And I don't actually think this pattern maybe has as much meaning as it normally would. You know, that opinion will be cancelled if we drop through this rising trend line, which follows closely by these October lows. Down through there, you know, obviously this has had some meaning, and we dropped down first to I think 1.1870, but then perhaps down to the 1.16 level again. At the moment we're just in a choppy rising trend. We've kind of been capped by this declining trend line. You know, if you pull out to the weak each other, there's still a sort of general going assumption of more BOJ stimulus baked into this slash the Fed's going to be tightening. Should the U.S. economy really slow down, then maybe that's when we can see a break to the downside on this. But I think the default is this is a triangle consolidation before a break higher. And just back over to Sterling. You know, to label this different thing declining wedge, declining channel, but it's definitely one of the two. And, you know, quite clear cut support where we are at the moment. If you connect these, the July and the September lows matches pretty well with this December bounce. And here we are again, pushing into the bottom of this trend line. It's got to, you know, it's got to either provide enough support to break out the top of the wedge or it's got to give way at some point. We can't keep working, but for the moment, it seems to be at least causing some pause in the market. And I would say given this burst divergence in the RSI, probably, you know, higher possibilities within what is basically a general sort of range bound environment to the upside than there are to the downside after this quite steep sell-off here. Obviously, the general backdrop to this is that many had hoped that the Bank of England would be quick to follow the Fed with a rate hike. I still think that might actually be the case and I think language might shift quite dramatically next year from the Bank of England, but for the moment, that's pure speculation. And actually, what they've been saying is that just because the Fed raised rates doesn't mean we have to, wage growth is higher, but it's weak, and obviously all prices just capping inflation in general. There's no particular reason for the BOE at this point, according to them at least, to raise rates even by 25 basis points. So hence the weakness in the pound against the dollar. Different story against the euro, obviously, but even there we're seeing a slight narrowing of the difference between the monetary policy with the Bank of England being quite dovish, ECB disappointed, so that differential between the ECB and the BOE coming in a bit, meaning that that euro-pound sell-off is sort of stabilizing a bit. Now, jumping over back to commodities here, Brent has been the headline grabber of today because here, this is the short-term chart, sharp sell-off, and you can see that every bounce has really been sold into recently. OPEC meeting was here. We were basically kind of range-bound before the meeting, and then boom, a few days after the meeting, sell-off, and it's really been quite heavy decline since. Oh, sorry, what I meant to do was just show you that longer-term picture of, here we are, we're basically below these lows now. In Brent, keep in mind that this is obviously an adjusted futures price for the futures chart for the cash, but still that's what most people look at when looking back at historical charts for Brent. So the exact low was naturally here, but still everyone pretty much be looking at the same adjusted chart. So for technical reasons, it kind of is the low, even though whatever that says, 3667 wasn't quite if you catch my meaning. So significant, certainly, but obviously we've kind of been here before with this 2008 sell-off, so have we just seen here the end here and are we bouncing all the way back to 120? This feasible doesn't seem likely at this point. This was more sort of general scare in a financial crash. This has been what I think is more of a sort of defined oversupply specifically in the oil market. A lot of calls for $20 per barrel. You can see that is the support from back in 2001. So that's feasible. You know, we could definitely get there, but this drop-off is getting pretty overdone. My suspicion is maybe it doesn't get much past 30, but pretty much like catching the falling knife at this point. More just something to think about rather than to actually execute via your short-term trades. Very choppy in gold. You know, here just also indicating that general idea that we pushed out to a new higher high back in August, but then we since just dives leading into the Fed meeting and made the new low-low, and now we've kind of stabilized into this new range, which gold will basically do. You know, look at this movement. Back between March and May was in June even. We pretty much went into a kind of choppy sideways range off here. This was a bit of a more kind of rising range, but you can go back and go back in gold and see that we get these sharp moves followed by choppy consolidations. And obviously we're just in that consolidation phase at the moment. The best of this sell-off has been had. And I suspect even if we do get a little push down to 1.040, it's not going to be a major route, I suspect. It's going to be more of a low-low, fake out, push up, higher high, fake out before we actually determine whether we are going to push down to $1,000 per ounce in gold. Fundamentally, with the Fed raising rates, there's good reason to think that gold has further downside to come. You know, obviously no one wants an asset that doesn't yield anything when yields are rising. Similar theme with silver. Basically at the moment, I think, as I mentioned in the chart forum here, I think looking at a fake out through this declining trend line and maybe going to get pushed up to this 14, 60, 7-ish type level, 65. And then above there into this declining trend line, which you can see better on the weekly chart, has held pretty nicely. This is a declining wedge pattern as it stands. We get a push through there. Then there's obviously not really anymore. But this is actually a bullish pattern. And to some extent, we've been trying to push into severely new lows past 14, but it hasn't really worked ever since last year. We haven't, you know, clearly the market is quite bearish on commodities, but silver hasn't really done more than it did in 2014. It just, the bounces have been shallower, which is certainly a negative. But actually this technical pattern just shows some compression and a possible push up here. And we could move back up to the 200-day moving average and back up to the sort of 21, you know, 2021 level. Not there yet by any stretch. And we just had a bearish week a couple of weeks ago. Didn't get much of a follow through the following week. You know, that's kind of what we're dealing with here, is that kind of basically fake out. We push lower, close the week above, and then you can see on the daily chart here, starting to show some signs of wanting to push higher. So up through this high, should to me, carry us to this high, and I think probably up to the declining trend line before maybe 15 attracts a bit more of a sell-off again. So yeah, in summary, a bit of a shortened week really. Obviously we've got Christmas and no one wants to be trading on those days anyway. But for these three days, there's definitely a few things going on. All prices to bear in mind, obviously. Any extra news on this Spanish election and just these a couple of quite serious economic results. The durable goods gives us a good picture on the U.S. consumer heading into the big buying season of Christmas. And these GDP results, which gives us a better idea what happened in the third quarter, gives us some basis for which to compare the fourth quarter performance when those data are released in January. Okay, well, good luck for trading this week. And Merry Christmas, Happy New Year, and talk to you again in January. Thanks very much. Jasper Lawler signing out.