 now we talk to our man teddy cakes that as we do every every wednesday at forty past the hour folks you can check out teddy's tiger forex report right under the newsletters tab the tiger forex report you can sign up for ninety seven dollars per month it comes with a thirty day money back guarantee folks and don't forget teddy's got a couple of great webinars out there capitalizing on time with calendar stock option spreads ninety seven dollars and japanese candlestick pattern stock and option strategies with our man teddy cakes as well both great webinars that you can watch as many times as you'd like and let's jump into it teddy cakes at good morning good morning tommy where do you want to start do we have enough action going on this week man what do we got going on where do you want to begin um well i think the numbers is where we should start out with you know i mean i've been saying it for months the economic numbers are more more important they have been in probably over a decade you know especially as we're trying to figure out what the fed's gonna do cpi obviously you know the market reacted and then we had a flat line in the currencies and then now we had this one thing is yet cpi in the uk that came out this morning a little bit better than expected so that kind of put the brakes on the slide i would say as far as the pound dollar meaning that the dollar is probably a little overdone now from that news from yesterday now we do have unemployment claims tomorrow and we still have building permits on friday and that one could be a a big one to shake up the interest rate market you know so uh that's when i would definitely watch today i think that you're going to see probably the s and p's hold up in the bond market probably in the interest rate market pull back a little bit as we you know track through the day and the lunch time and stuff like that i wouldn't expect a big bounce you know i'd be very careful being uh bearish the dollar right now and i would definitely be watching those numbers and we've had we've got some pretty interesting situations like the the u.s dollar yet is probably the one you have to watch out for the most because it's above that 150 even area which is the threshold for the bank of japan and now we also have oil breaking out to the upside you know and we also which is probably going to get up to 81 to 83 area i think and then we also if that does happen that's going to put pressure on the yen and give the u.s dollar yen a lift especially if yields continue to to break out to the downside which interestingly enough like i'm saying that today i think you're going to see yield start to pull back but i think it's going to be a profit taking move i'd be very very very careful i think you're going to see newer lows in the uh interest rate market because i can see the tenure and especially the short terms still pressing the lows i wouldn't try and call a bottom in that move at all and talking about lower price higher yield correct yes yeah no it's it's quite the move man and yeah that dollar yen pretty remarkable we're back above the the 150 pushing 150 190 the highs that we had back in october um what do you think about how well and i know you know we were always talking about four experiences but how well kind of the market has held up even in the face of this reversal we've had from october now we've had some gangbuster earnings of course but it's pretty remarkable you got the s&p sitting at 5000 right now and we've had yields kind of give back from 3.8 to 4.3 or so and i know i'm going beyond 4x but what do you think about that as it ties in because it's just a remarkable resilience right now oh it absolutely ties in though tommy uh right now with the s&p's it's pretty obvious that earnings are driving the market you know it's a i talked to a lot of people they're always like teddy why is the market pushing these highs i don't understand i'm like earnings i'm like as long as earnings are good you i remember being in the s&p's when the economy was in the complete gutter for over a year two years we were in true recessions by the number if you will you know and this s&p's were railing i mean every day we'd be like yeah we're making new highs we're making new highs or making new highs and everyone's like what in the world is going out of the stock market well the stock market's forward thinking you know and then there's also you got your equity curves cycles of curves you know right now you have gold that's under restraint a little bit your interest rates are high as they go higher that also you know there's a cyclicality to these markets and right now we're coming to the end with this with the s&p's i'd be careful after earnings season as far as you know i'm not going to try and say there's a top in the market but we could easily see you know a three four percent correction especially if economic numbers start to you know point that way like building permits for for example on friday if building permits drop by say a significant number especially if it's way below forecast you know that's something that would cause a shake-up in the bond market you know what else it's going to cause a shake-up in is the s&p 500 pit for sure without a doubt the futures will react off of that news you know i mean building permits aren't the biggest economic number but they are right now when you're looking at where inflation you know it is is subsided but it hasn't gone away you know the media may keep saying they want the you know the fed to start cutting rates and i heard you earlier say you know about the one article why the public's like why haven't they started cutting rates it's really simple the numbers don't justify it numbers are economic numbers are lagging now we've had enough time where they haven't done anything and they're like oh geez inflation's still there and oh look at yesterday's cpi cpi went up you know that is a big deal especially considering what they've tried to accomplish you know so just if we stay at the rate the cpi just has this kind of outlook just for the next couple of months you're probably not going to see a rate cut until september right now you're looking at may is probably the first time maybe even june before they even do one quarter point you know just in time for the election just in time for the election it's like well that's that no matter what i believe i get this summer i mean it's going to be hysteria either way um so why not add some some cuts that come in like right a month or two i have but i agree i agree man because you know i go back to that i don't know if you saw him on 60 minutes i'm sure you saw the take on it he was just so strong and the the comment that caught me the most was when he just brought it home you know that we got to get back to when nobody's talking about inflation you know you're not even worried about it it's like that's all everybody talks about kind of and then you get a cpi number like that and the compounding of the the inflation is really what gets you man you go 10 percent you go eight percent then you go four and you go four my goodness you add it all up and then that's how do you get out of talking about here's a perfect example of inflation for you i went to meet a friend for lunch yesterday we each had the same thing we had a french onion soup she had a cup i had a bowl she had a caesar salad i had a chicken caesar salad and one coke do you know how much it costs with the tip 75 dollars for two soups and two salads and one coke that's ridiculous i'm sorry i mean like 75 dollars two years ago i could go out just for myself and have a nice dinner i was gonna say a little bit more i'm getting dinner for two i see restricts like that only from uh las vegas in the superbowl man not chicago having lunch for a soup and salad no it is it's yeah it's um and that's and that's where and so i agree that you know if the chairman is being real and you know it would make sense that to a certain degree he wants that to be the case um and and his legacy not to be that he let you know generational inflation soar that boy they got a long way to go before nobody's talking about inflation man because these compounding numbers are pretty critical yeah hey what do you um you know 81 82 bucks on crude so is that something where you're looking possibly for it to chop around and then longer term maybe going higher if we get to that level because we're almost at 79 right now which is remarkable you're up more than a percent um do you have any analysis there you're going to look for how to trade at that price point i think we'll get a little toppy around 81 just over that and i think you'll probably see it spike up to 83 that we may start to see a digestion phase in that area too where it'll be probably from eight and see right now i was looking at 70 75 dollars a barrel now we've broken out to the upside now it's probably be around that 80 to 83 dollars now if we get above 83 you can close above that and sustain well then we got a major issue then we then we're looking at something like we could see a hundred dollar oil again and then we have inflation coming back in a big way yeah nobody's going to stop talking about inflation if gas prices hit four or five bucks that's for sure teddy i appreciate it as always man uh i hope you enjoyed that soup and salad yesterday man uh listen thanks so much for coming on i'll talk to you next week man take care tell me folks check it out the tiger forex report outstanding newsletter go sign up for it during the break you got a 90-day money back guarantee we'll be right back folks