 Good morning and welcome to the weekly market update with me David Madden today's date is Monday the 18th of November 2019 and the time has just gone 1135 GMT and it's been a fairly quiet start to the European trading session We heard we heard over the weekend. There was trade talks between the US and China and apparently they were quote-unquote Constructive so could be there's a continued sense of optimism in relation to the US China trade talks Also out of China The Chinese central bank have lowered the repo rate by five basis points It was the first time in since 2015 that rate has been lowered and on its own It is much of a move, but this ties in with the wider The wider sentiment that globally center banks are loosening monetary policy Which is kind of a I know which is both kind of beneficial to the stock markets But also kind of paints a picture that the global economy is slowing down and very different Countries are using whatever tools that have at their disposal to assist the economy We've yet to hear President Trump's decision in relation to what's gonna happen with the Tariff potential tariffs on EU vehicle vehicles and in a way that's sort of acting as a cap to your connecting markets You know We've seen strong levels in the DAX and the cap recently But they can't in the last few weeks, but we can't really kind of drive ahead Just because no pun intended We can't really drive ahead just because some traders are very concerned that you know They want to sit in the fence until President Trump makes his decision because obviously you can take the high risk buying up lots of German or French stocks in manufacturing The car auto stocks on the outside of president Trump those decide to impose the Impose the the levies on EU vehicles But there is talk that he will whenever he does make a decision that decision will be to defer to to defer for another six months So these are the kind of the big issues that are going on in terms of the financial markets Also, the British Pound is doing quite well this morning. What we've seen is numerous in opinion polls put the Johnson's conservative party in the lead The Tory party I've already struck a deal with the EU the Tory party or pro-business. This is what was benefiting the British Pound but more recently Prime Minister Johnson has stated that every MP and every conservative MP fighting this next general election Has pledged to back the deal that he's already agreed with EU So traders are looking as a sign if the Tories do win this election and they do get a majority This could be kind of like the final leg of the Brexit saga whereby it looked to kind of you know They would all hopefully if the if the Tory party get a majority who then looked like Essentially kind of look like it would look like we're point to that Those MPs the Tory MPs were then back. Mr. Johnson's the deal that he struck with with the Brussels So hence why we're seeing strength in the British Pound I thought I'd do now is take a look at the week ahead article and then I'll also look through some of the major markets So if we can article can be found on a website go to cmcbrackets.com Under insights nudes and analysis and you find this article. So look me head to tomorrow. Follow your figures from easyjet Tomorrow we have third quarter figures from Home Depot This week on Wednesday and Wednesday and Friday We have inflation numbers from Canada as well as well as retail sales figures from Canada on Wednesday We have the minutes from the latest meeting of the Federal Reserve on Wednesday We also have third quarter figures from Target on Thursday We have third quarter numbers from William Hill here in the UK Royal Mail with all on Thursday. We'll also deliver their first half numbers We have the minute from the ECB and the ECB Policy meeting on Thursday and on Thursday. We have third quarter figures out from the gap and on Friday We have flash PMI reports out of Germany and France Starting off now with the FTSE 100 So the FTSE broad he's speaking it you know since early October so for about six weeks broad you've been pushing higher Obviously be edging a bit lower ever so recently But we've managed to kind of hang in around this red line here The tour to moving average and that comes to play at seven top just north of seven thousand three hundred We're sure our north of that level as it stands if you could hold above the tour to moving average It's likely that the kind of recent trend of assay six seven weeks is going to continue should that be the case We could look at retesting seven thousand four hundred Up toward this area here the early November highs in a seven thousand four hundred and thirty odd There there abouts and if you go beyond that we could then be looking at potentially targeting this area here in around seven thousand four hundred and seventy To keep an eye on the zone Should the wider upper trend continue and if you do you manage to have a fairly decent move to the downside And if the low is going to take out the lows of last week and Friday This area here we could then be heading back down toward the psychology important seven thousand metric And we could see here 7200 area here We can see here that that that seven thousand two hundred acted as a support so better consolidation In October so the metric has been an area to have been important in the past it makes it it'll be more likely so in the future Take a look now. What's going on over in Germany on the Dax So only last week we saw the Dax hit a level last seen Since early 2018 to give indication of how strong the Dax is. It was a January 2018 we're at level that so give indication of how bullish the market is But if you look at the price action and then ask week or two very much kind of range about as we're gonna get a push to me Any higher pass really move the whole lot of the lower like I said that the lack of clarity in relation to you Auto tariffs is an issue for the Dax I always see here on the Mac the indicator about the histogram positive momentum completely faded away I will actually now see Russia knowing seeing an increase in negative momentum So be mindful that it could this it could be a sign that we could be looking at the Bulls who weren't in control for a number of weeks Appeared to be kind of running out of steam So we could look for a bit of a pullback of the market potentially back toward this area here in around 12,000 just well south of 13,000 12,000 980 or perhaps even over this area here in around 12,800 But keep mind the wide rougher trend is still very much in play So if the market does matter to continue on and the recent trend and take up recent take up the recent highs That would suggest that we're in for a further Upper move I should that be the case you can really get right this area here the highs of late January 2018 And that's in around the 13,600 mark We'll take a look what's going on over in the US the US markets are flying it You know regularly seeing record highs across the major US indices and it would appear that Dow Jones is gonna post another all-time high So the sentiment is very much to the upside the markets are pushing higher. They're pointing at all-time highs It is an increase in positive momentum markets are looking quite strong So we could be looking at Eric, you know in the near term Respecting the markets open in around 20,000 is 60 odd We could be looking at targeting 28,000 100 28,200 these sorts of levels If you do have a pullback in the market Or we could see if you could see the market finding support from in around this area here in around 12,500 12,400 this zone here As potential areas of support and even if you'd have a size of break below that support Can we found this blue line here the 50 moving average and that comes to play in around 12? Sorry in around 27,057 I take a look check off the S&P 500 fairly similar situation of the S&P 100 We're posted all-time highs on Friday. We're expecting yet another all-time iso sentiment is very clearly strong We're seeing an increase in positive momentum So so the upward move in the underlying market has been confirmed by a steady increase in the Back to indicators things are looking quite well on that front. So we're expecting the S&P 500 to open around 3,125 so we could be looking at targeting 3,130 40 so once a fourth in the near term A move lower might find support from this zone here in around 3,066 and if you if you go below that this area here in around 3,025 might act as support and even if you move below that this blue line here the 50 moving average which comes to play at 3,009 that might act as support should we see a fairly sizable pullback in the S&P 500 Take a look at the some currencies starting off with a euro versus US dollar So the wider trend is very much to the downside So we can't really ignore that but recently in the last few weeks We have seen broadly speaking a push to the upside in in the euro versus the US dollar And we could see here that the metric is back above It brief you try to blow 110 and it's been pushing higher since a negative momentum is declining And we're back our making gains beyond the 50 moving average and if you can hold above 50 moving average a blue line there In at one spot 10 41 if you can hold above that area We can then be looking at head back towards kind of 111 area and then beyond that You can look at retest in this zone here in around one spot 1179 Which kind of is broadly speaking to get a highs that we saw in October But also coincides with the eternity moving average. There's this red line here If you manage you can drop turn over on itself yet again And we take off the recent lows here in around one spot 989 drop below that could take us back down We'd see it heading back down towards 109 I could actually back down towards the recent lows that we saw in early October in around one spot 08 79 Take a look at the British pound as I mentioned starting to do well today after Boris got got his I got all the MPs standing of the Tory MPs pledge his their support for the deal he struck with Brussels. So We saw obviously I've seen a major rebound in the British pound in the last couple of months Starting is the pushing higher at the last few sessions with a steady decline in negative momentum. So we so things are heading so the back that which kind of adds weight to the argument that they're going to see push higher in the pound dollar Or at least it's Confirming the the recent positive move. So if you press on higher from here We can look at retesting one one spot 30 and beyond that We could be chart retesting recent high at one spot 30 12 and a movie on that could take it's up to this area here The highs that we saw in a late early Bay in at one spot 31 78 Any move to the downside could find some support someone 28 But you know the recent lows were once by 27 68 I move below that could could put this this red line on the on the radar And it's in at once by 27 oh three Take a look now. What's going on in gold? So the gold market at a phenomenal rally into September we're in a six year high, but ever since then it's actually been pushing a bit lower Take a look at the gold market. It's really gonna failed to go struggle to get above the kind of 15 19 mark. So it's been acting a bit of a cap ever so ever recent ever so recently under the downside The level that we hit here was a level last seen In August so it reached a three month low not that long ago And they should we continue to kind of press and lower from here We could be looking at this area here in around 14 30 As a benign area of support for the further for should market to move to the downside So notice how after hitting a six-year high We became as fine as soon as you can higher highs and lower lows So things are still looking recently negative in the near term for gold So a drop back below the recent low could take us back down toward this zone here in around 14 30 And if you move below that we could be heading back down toward the psychology point 1400 mark See what's going on on Brent oil so we draw a Low between a line between the lows of October and it should could early In early October and also true later to where we get this trend line here, which has been supported nicely On a few occasions and essentially while we hold above that trend line. It's likely we could see Further moves to the upside and should be present higher from here We could be retesting this red line here the 30 moving average in a 64 spot 86 And I will be on that on Brent could take us up toward this area here The highs of mid-September in around 65 spot 79 If you do have a fairly size of break below this trend line We can then look retesting this zone here just south of 60 dollars a bar It's obviously a big psychological number, but also access support at the end of October and last you've been at least WTI obviously it's a fairly similar concert what we saw on Brent So once again, we draw a low but a line between the lows of October Kind of mid October we get this trend line here. Notice how in WTI The market is comfortable to be above but it hasn't even really get retested it more recently so markets well above It's the end the trend line But on top of that it's actually managed to hold above close above and trade above This red line here the turning moving average. So it seems that the the WTI market isn't isn't far better It's in better shape than the in the Brent market I feel like the press on higher from here and if you could take all this area here in around 58 dollars a barrel We're gonna be head back up for the kind of cycle as she boarded 60 bucks a barrel Eddie moves to the downside in WTI could find some support from this blue line here The fifth of the moving average and that comes to play a 55 spot 67 I'll give a size to move below that. We're gonna head back down for this trend line here Retest that potentially in around 54 dollars per barrel Well, that's all for me. Thank you very much and please tune in next week. Thank you