 Hello and welcome to NewsClick. Today we're going to discuss the affair Jamal Khashoggi and we have with us Ambassador Bandra Kumar who's been a keen observer of West Asia and larger global affairs. It appears now that Saudi Arabia is going to make some admission that either by accident or misadventure unintentionally Khashoggi did die in the embassy. What do you think are the possible implications of such an admission considering we have now the United States involved, the defence secretary is there, the Turkey seems to be closely involved. We have an investigation but the Makkah governor who has gone to Turkey. So how do you see this admission or otherwise things playing out? Well you know the important part there is that how the various protagonists in the situation, Turkey which has played a very key role, Americans and behind the scene I think even Britain, how they arrived at this point. The implications of this can only be understood in terms of that. So we will have to turn the clock back a little bit. The Saudis began by adamantly saying that they had nothing to do with it, they had no knowledge of this. Khashoggi had left the embassy. This is their version. Steadfast they held on to that. Now it soon became apparent that the Turks knew more than that. And they had some evidence. Yes, the question is how much more. And the Turks actually had a very uncharacteristically brilliant media management in this. It seems that knew everything. And they were leaking in driblets to the media. Almost every day this was happening. And the president who is generally very garrulous and very boastful kept to the background. Uncharacteristic He was talking from the heights that we must get to the bottom of it and all the rest of it. But these leaks which are coming were coming to the American media. So they were building up the volume there in America. It's almost open. They had wired the embassy. That's what I'm saying. I don't know how it is. Audio clips. Whether they had video or not, we don't know. Now they are saying that this Apple watch and all that. I have looked at it. Technically it looks that that's a cover for the fact they had wired the embassy. And they had mics over there. That's exactly what I was saying. I have a feeling that the Turks therefore knew. Because I looked at the technical issues involved and it looks like that's not probably one. So now when you look at the implications of this, you have to see how the Turks handled this. They knew right from the beginning the man was dead. They knew that he was murdered. And they knew that there was a death squad which came from, hit squad which came from Saudi Arabia. There's 15 men. Two flights. Aircrafts were there and all that. And all these things they knew. But you look at their performance in a very calibrated way. They were leaking this. And they were leaking to the American press to put pressure. Now the point is, why the American thing? Because Trump has a genuine connection with this regime. Not Trump so much as Trump's son-in-law. Kushner. Jared Kushner. Kushner and this man. American press is full of reports that they even have a dedicated phone line which is out to the reach of the secret service. Usually what happens is this sort of even confidential conversations take place through a line which is recorded because of security implications, you know. But Kushner apparently has got away with this practice of talking to Mohammed bin Salman without a single American eavesdropping on the conversation. So it is Trump, Kushner, Mohammed bin Salman. This angle is going on there. Then there is one more dimension, you know. Israel dimension. Yes, exactly. Kushner is a Jew. And Kushner is not only a Jew, he's a man who has, is such a fundamentalist, Zionist himself that, you know, he funded even, he spent his own money for best bank settlements. He's contributed substantial funds. Which is actually a violation of international law. International law, but you can imagine what a fundamentalist he is, you know. So you see this contact between Saudi Arabia and or rather the nexus that is forming between Saudi Arabia and Israel that is fostered by Kushner very significantly. So you see this, while this is going on and Turkey has very poor relations with, they barely tolerate each other with Israel, you know, Erdogan. Erdogan has a visceral dislike and this is reciprocated by the Israelis also. And again Erdogan has contacts with Hamas. So you see the leaks were going to the deep state. Now Washington Post we all know well, America has probably, I mean, the CIA has probably even taken some equity in the paper. You know, they're the same. They even funded by the CIA to that extent. Its connection is extremely well known. So a lot of it was going to the Washington Post and they were going to these quarters, which in the Civil War conditions in America means that Trump would come under immense pressure. And it's an election year also. Election is just taking place. So Trump, otherwise you see the biggest problem for the Turks also would have been that Trump would squash it because Trump is on a very different project with Saudi Arabia, money involved, big money involved. So that is why he was very grumpy. He was saying, you know, putting so much money in America and all that and how can we spoil this relationship and all. 110 billion dollar arms deals. But then what happens is this is, this Trump was blowing hot and cold and it wasn't going very far. So then Turks revealed some really damaging information about this hacking to death and cutting the body into pieces and all that. Now you can imagine what impact this would have had on Khashoggi's mentors within the CIA. When things built up to a point, the foreign minister traveled to London, you know, Shausoglu. He even traveled to London because the Brits have a lot of interest and a lot of influence in the Gulf area. So it is very important to take the Brits on board and brief them so they leveled with the Brits also on this. In any case, about this Mohammed bin Salman, there's very poor opinion generally in the western world. So things work to Turks' advantage. With this backing, the Turks, then Erdogan came out and made that tantalizing statement that it's up to the Turks to prove, up to the Saudis to prove that he left the consulate alive. Now this, the Saudis understood very well that this meant that the Turks knew far more than what they were prepared to divulge. Publicly say. Yes. And that they knew precisely what happened. Immediately there was a statement calling Turkey a brotherly country and all that and proposing a joint investigation, a statement from Riyadh. Turks accepted it. And last Friday the Saudi team arrived and at what level? Extremely high level. Makkah governor. Yes. Makkah governor was the son of King Faisal and belonging to this powerful very powerful clan. So they sent a very senior person who's in a position to negotiate. So the Saudis understood that they had to negotiate with the Turks. Do you think that this negotiation also involves more than just Turkey-Saudi relationship? Does it also mean that bin Salman's position is in danger? It can go in ways that we cannot anticipate today because this is we are entering uncharted waters here. Obviously the Turks have given the message to the Saudis that this is what has happened and we know it. So they are cornered, Saudis are cornered. Now the point is for Saudis an admission that it happened like this is a great loss of face on the Arab street. Number one. Number two it as I told you the pride of the intelligence agency, the CIA is not going to forget this. You know already you can find I mean I don't want to mention the names because you know these are your program also will be watched by outsiders, Americans included. So I won't say but you can identify certain people who have been associated with the CIA, who appear as columnists and analysts and all that. They are already introduced the thought that this should not end here with an apology by the Saudis because after all Khashoggi has been killed. The intelligence agency's agenda is going to be a hard line agenda that they must be they must be a price to pay for the Saudis. So this is the other angle. Then as I told you the price is not by under leagues being sacrificed. Price must be higher than that. Price could be higher than that because you know if you so there will be a clash of interest. Trump's part on the other hand that's what I was going to say this part on the other hand is that now let's all somehow now you know somehow take let this allow this to taper off and let life move on. This would be Trump and Kushner's idea and this is what Israelis would also prefer. Sacrifice some pawns but not touch the king as it works or in this case the prince. Let the bygones be bygones. That's sort of an approach. But the intelligence agencies I don't think will reconcile with that because their entire project towards Saudi Arabia is in a samples with this killing. Turks are really stakeholders in a genuine change in the Saudi policies because Saudi Arabia on this track has become a threat to Turkish national security and their core interests the Kurdish insurgency and so on and they have definitely hard information of the hand of Saudis and Emirates in this attempt to assassinate President Erdogan in the 2016 coup. So they are interested in a genuine change. Then there is the known unknown factor that in Saudi Arabia we look at it as an autocratic regime but the fact is that a certain kind of a collegium approach is adopted like in any tribal society when there is an existential moment. Tribal elders equivalent. Elders opinionate and a consensus is formed and probably the time taken between the CNN's disclosure early morning today and till now I don't know whether the Saudi statement has come or not. This explains it. There is a consensus is required. Now therefore the churnings within the house of south the royal family also is becoming a factor here. The point is Crown Prince Salman has alienated substantial sections of not substantial I mean almost across the board you know arresting them beating them up taking money away from them humiliating them and all that. So that includes bin Naif as well. Yes. So the point is this is payback time for a lot of influential forces which suffered humiliation in the last year year and a half that is one thing now King Salman is himself very old ailing not quite in control of things but on the other hand security apparatus the powerful instruments of power instruments of power and coercion are still in the hands of the Crown Prince of Muhammad Salman and we know from his short track record that he has explored new frontiers of violence you know and you know. Apart from anything else the war in the Yemen. Yes. Which the British and the Americans are fully backed. Yes. Is a self an example of brutality. So this part how it turns out is very difficult to guess. Today's back Al Arabiya and this Avasat newspaper the establishment daily had a both featured simultaneously which is clearly the a sign that it's official attitude the viewpoint under the pen name of the general manager of Al Arabiya based in Dubai. Now who is a very important figure in the media circuit in the Gulf as a whole there they have threatened that they have disclosed that they have lined up 30 measures the Saudis have to retaliate if the Americans did anything against their regime and these included that number one that they will ignore the they will not no longer exceed to Trump's request to increase output of oil to make up for the shortfall of Iranian oil following the sanctions next year next that is number one which means they said we will allow it to the price to rise to 100 200 even 400 dollars which means you know that they have threatened that they will bring down the western economies winter's just beginning you know this time secondly they have said that they will trade no longer trade in dollars and they used in fact the expression that they may take something like another currency like Chinese Yuan which of course would danger the danger the banking system the western banking system as a whole and this they said they will pull back the investments in America which they gave a figure around figure of 800 billion dollars they will pull back that they said that they will give a base to the Russians and they mentioned the place which is a clear sign that some discussions have taken place this is going to change South Arabia is going to change the West Asian situation of this there is very little doubt today isn't there I think so because you see the loss of face I mentioned in the Arab Street already the GCC is unraveling and GCC has become actually defunct you know GCC is not there there is no regional security architecture there and obviously the crown prince has taken a lot of battering and I doubt if he would be able to get away with the same kind of behavior in future and now this would have useful fallouts you know now I don't want to link it but I read in the Russian press yesterday that Bolton is going to Moscow on Monday to discuss Syria now definitely there is going to be a fallout therefore on Syria where the end game is going on and if the Saudis pull out from there this is one aspect and then there is a mounting criticism in the US about the horrific things going on in Yemen increasingly difficult to defend and an opinion is building up even in the Congress that the this power should be withdrawn from the executive to send arms to the Saudis and Emirates in Yemen and so on so there are also in fact in the command control centers which are directing the strides but this is definitely weakened bin Salman his policies and Saudi Arabia in the at least in the global mix I think I will put him let me say he will put him on the defensive and now the attention will turn to the succession and I think his focus now would be to retrieve the lost ground to see that he becomes the king and sure the inner control that he has is yes yes does it go so if the Saudi consensus for projecting the sort of an acknowledgement of mistake if the Saudi consensus involves change in the hierarchy do not roll it out the opponents may use this as an opportunity to defend him or remove him. Thank you Ambassador Badrakumar to be with us you of course have much deeper knowledge of Turkey than anybody else by virtue of being there for quite some time and this is as much about Turkey as it's about Saudi Arabia. Thank you Praveer I enjoyed the conversation and I was very sure when I was coming here that I would myself enjoy this program Thank you very much. This is all the time we have news click today do keep watching news click and visit our website and our YouTube channel