 Housing and inflation stats as economic debate continues. The government will update a key inflation gauge and fourth quarter gross domestic product, while private data will be released on the status of the housing market in this holiday shortened week. Data, largely for January, are being released against the backdrop of an economy that has been heating up more than anticipated and inflation that, while heading downward, is still running well above the amount the Federal Reserve believes is essential. On Wednesday, the minutes from the Federal Reserve's most recent meeting will be made public, revealing the central bank's most current thoughts. Spritz believe it will reveal a lively debate among policymakers about whether the recent reduction to a 25 basis point boost was appropriate or whether some supported a more aggressive half point increase. Policy watchers will be paying particular attention to any discussion on the dispute over the decision to raise the federal funds rate at the last meeting, as noted by Sam Bullard, managing director and senior economist at Wells Fargo, in a Monday blog post. There's raised interest rates by 75 basis points. Major Wall Street businesses like Goldman Sachs are forecasting three more rate hikes, a more aggressive estimate than the two rate hikes the market had priced it recently. Released late last week by Goldman Sachs economists led by Jan Hotsus, in light of the higher GDP and firmer inflation news, we are adding a 25 basis points rate hike in June to our Fed forecast for a peak funds rate of 5.25% 5.5%. Government bond rates have risen to their highest level since 2007, and the question of whether or not a recession is likely has been further exacerbated by the shifted thinking. The housing market and manufacturing sector have already experienced substantial declines, while the IT sector is experiencing a flood of layoff notices. On Tuesday, data on existing house sales will be released, and on Friday, data on new home sales will be released, making this week a busy one for housing reports. Existing home sales are predicted to rise marginally, while new home sales are forecast to fall from month to month, according to economists. On Thursday, economists will revise their estimates for fourth quarter GDP growth, but they still expect it to come in at 2.9%. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's GDP now model projects growth of 2.5% for the first quarter of this year, which is higher than the 1.5% predicted at the beginning of the year. The paying particular attention to Friday's report on personal consumption, which will include a price index. The consumer price index is expected to show a monthly increase in inflation of 0.4% in January, with the annualized rate decreasing to 4.3% from December's 4.4%. The inflation picture is murky because while annual inflation is down, helped by falling prices across the board, monthly inflation is rising because the sharp dip in gasoline prices at the end of last year has reversed somewhat. The Federal Reserve is paying close attention to service sector inflation because rising demand for these goods and services has resulted in higher prices and salaries for service workers. The geopolitical happenings such as President Joe Biden's astonishing Kloak and Dagger visit to Ukraine on Monday and Vladimir Putin's Veliko speech to the Russian people on Tuesday will put a shadow over all the predictions. When considering higher global economic development, investors have taken note of China's openness of its economy in the wake of COVID and its cozying up to Russia. Last but not least, there is the stock market's internal dynamics. The S&P 500 index has risen by 14% from its fall lows, causing some experts to warn of a return if inflation statistics and bond yields surprise to the upside. Carol Schleif, Chief Investment Officer, BMO Family Office, said on Tuesday morning that the market is missing the point that a strong economy and normalization of rates after an abnormal decade of zero interest rates is a long-term positive, because it is a signal of a healthier economy that isn't in need of stimulus. Do you have any thoughts on this? Let us know what you think by posting a comment below.