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Greenspan: 2008 was worst financial crisis in history

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Published on Feb 4, 2014

For many years, economists have made authoritative and mathematically complex predictions about where the US economy is headed. Yet as Alan Greenspan, former chairman of the Federal Reserve and head of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Gerald Ford, observes in his new book, “The Map and the Territory” (Penguin, October 2013), no one predicted the timing of the 2008 financial crisis, or its severity.

What is wrong with economic forecasting that it could not foresee a cataclysm of this magnitude, even days before it happened? Greenspan’s book may portend a complete revision in the way economists forecast the future. At this AEI event, he will argue that entirely new data capturing “animal spirits” (the elements of human behavior) will be necessary if the economics profession is to improve its forecasting accuracy.

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#news #politics #government #education

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