 Hello everyone welcome to options with Doug streaming live daily on book map discord and the book map YouTube channel at 130 p.m. Eastern Time Before I get started I need to go through the disclosures General disclosure all book map limited materials information and presentations are for educational purposes only and should not be considered specific investment advice nor recommendations risk disclosure trading futures equities and options involves substantial risk of loss and it's not suitable for all investors Pass performance is not necessarily indicative of future results The focus of my presentation and the focus of the options-doug chat channel in discord is options order flow The impact of options markets on stocks and futures and the influence of market maker hedging flow on price action I have a two-step process for trading and the first is planning and I use positional analysis I look at how traders and market makers are positioned in the options market and how those positions change from day to day to develop a thesis regarding the expected trading range and Volatility for the day as well as a directional bias and the second step of my process is Execution and I look at real-time order flow and book map and real-time market maker hedging flow and spot gamma hero To confirm my thesis and for setups for entries and exits and when I talk about setups I will be talking about an underlying asset and Setups can be taken with shares of stock futures or options Questions and comments are welcome and I will be watching both the options-doug chat channel and discord as Well as the chat and YouTube for your questions and comments, so please feel free to post All right my agenda for today what I want to cover first of all I want to go over news items economic data events and earnings Then I'll go through my positional analysis Then I'll use our review some setups up until right before 2 p.m. That is the FOMC announcement and at that point wherever I am I will stop and we'll watch the live market After the announcement at 2 p.m. All right, let's go over Economic data news and events first and again the big event for today is the FOMC Announcement and press conference the announcement at 2 p.m. Press conference begins at 2 30 p.m And note. This is the Fed watch tool from CME Right now there is about a 99% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike today so You know the market participants See almost a hundred percent chance of a 25 basis point rate hike. So really the The question will be what the Fed intends for future meetings All right, then for the rest of the week there are some Key economic data reports coming out So on Thursday tomorrow morning GDP and durable goods orders at 8 30 a.m. Easter time and then on Friday the PCE data at 8 30 a.m. And at 10 a.m. Consumer sentiment All right, so the of course the big event of the week is coming up in just a little bit less than 30 minutes So we'll we'll keep an eye on that and hello karma FX. Welcome glad you're here All right, let's get started with the position oppositional analysis This is the S&P 500 futures. Yes futures in book map And before I take a closer look at this chart. I want to take a look at a larger time frame This is SPX And a 30-day one-hour chart and thinkorswim Let me point out the levels on this chart first of all Here's the lower and upper weekly expected move shown with the dash purple lines and then the lower and upper daily expected move and that Upper daily expected move is just right below 4,600. So that's covered up by a spot gamma level line Alright, so so far SPX trading within both of those levels That could change in a few minutes And now let me point out some spot gamma levels on this chart First of all the put wall at 4,500 that moved up substantially from yesterday and This is occurring as the remember last Friday was the monthly Monthly expiration and Positions are starting to build for August expiration. So the put wall is now Back up at a more reasonable level at 4,500 the put wall is a spot gamma proprietary level That is the level with the largest net negative gamma that can be expected to act as support So again a substantial move up from 4,000 yesterday to a 4,500 today. The next level up is the volatility trigger at 4,540 That is spot gammas proprietary gamma flip level below that level market makers position on the gamma curve is Negative in a negative gamma environment Market makers have to trade with price to hedge their delta exposure and then on the other hand like SPX is trading now Market makers above the this level Market makers position on the gamma curve is positive in a positive gamma environment market makers have to trade Against price to hedge their delta exposure and that tends to subdue volatility and then the next level up and 4,600 level and That is the absolute gamma strike the strike with the largest absolute gamma as well as the Call wall the strike that's the strike with the largest net positive gamma that can be expected to act as Resistance and that is expected to be the upper end of the range All right, so much more narrow range now Between the put wall and call wall put wall at 4,500 call wall at 4,600 and note that SPX has been trading In a narrow range for about a week and again that may change in a few minutes All right, let's take a look at one other Chart For SPX This is a one-day one-minute chart SPX trading in a very narrow range and now we can see in book map. I have my own cloud notes and I'm showing SPX levels as well as spy levels So there's the 455 volatility trigger for spy that level did move up from 454 yesterday and Then here's the now the 454 zero gamma level and Spot and the S&P 500 has been trading in a narrow range between these two levels 455 acting as resistance and Just below above the 454 level Acting as support All right, so those are the levels that are in play for the S&P 500 Mainly Trading between these two spy levels round number levels 454 and 455 and shifts the levels again For SPX put wall shifted higher and for spy the volatility trigger shifted higher But for the S&P 500 there were no changes to the call walls or absolute gamma strikes Let's take a look at NASDAQ and once again the QQQ round numbers The ETF round numbers come into play. So let's take a look at a QQQ chart first just showing the Levels that are in play for today. All right. So first of all This 378 well first of all actually this combo l1 level at 376 50 active to support Then the truth 378 level that's not a gamma level, but that is a QQQ round number level did act as resistance Then price reversed higher just above the volatility trigger at 375 Then the 377 level acted as resistance and Now price is trading between the 376 level and the 377 level Waiting on the announcement So, you know as we can see the ETF round number levels Are of vital importance to the SAP 500 and NASDAQ at least in my opinion. All right, so here's the NASDAQ futures and Q futures I've got my own column of cloud notes here and I'm showing The QQQ levels, there's a 378 377 376 and right here this Level is also an NDX level. That is the 15,000 475 Call wall and that is a key level. That's also the absolute gamma strike for NDX so that is a key level for NDX note the resistance at the 378 level I'm not showing that combo L1 level, but notice a large iceberg order came in at that level right here and then this level around this level the 377 level as well and as well as the NDX 4,000 for 15,000 475 level also acting as resistance So those are the levels in play for the For the NASDAQ shifts in levels for NDX the volatility trigger did shift lower and for QQQ the volatility trigger and put wall shifted lower and Notably the call wall and absolute gamma strike both shifted higher to 400 So the call wall shifted higher from 390 to 400 and the absolute gamma strike For QQQ shifted up from 380 yesterday to 400 today And as we can see that 400 level is nowhere near in play for today With QQQ trading just above 376 All right, so mostly bullish shifts higher in the Levels especially for QQQ And we'll take a look at setups in a few minutes All right, let's take a look at some other information here going to focus on Gamma notional this is market makers position on the gamma curve for SPX spy NDX and QQQ and Note for NDX This number is positive Although it is less slightly less positive, but just about really unchanged from yesterday from 464 down to 451 today and for spy Market makers position on the gamma curve became more negative from minus 255 yesterday to minus 411 and then on the other hand For QQQ Market makers position on the gamma curve did slip shift to slightly positive This is all based on the information at the beginning of the day So yesterday gamma notional for QQQ was minus 352 shifted to positive 23 today so overall fairly neutral position positioning on the gamma curve for the NASDAQ and S&P 500 All right, my thesis for the day was It's a Fed day. So it what you know what what happens of the morning is pretty typically a range day So if we're looking for a a range day in the morning and then Expansion based on the Announcement and the meeting the the press conference and what Joan Powell says All right, let's take a look at some setups. I'm going to start with the S&P 500 This is a Chart from spot gamma showing the hero signal hedging impact real-time options The white line is showing price for SPX The purple line is the hero signal again hedging impact real-time options This is showing options trades and market maker hedging activity for a combined signal of SPX spy XSP and ES all into one combined signal And this is what you want to use for the S&P 500. All right, let's zoom in on this So pretty choppy signal here And in the morning Let's zoom in on the morning Traders were taking positive delta positions and price even as price was moving lower and really not much of a helpful signal here until this reversal hire at around 11 a.m. And That was just above the spy 454 level So nothing in the morning really no no read from The options market until about 11 a.m. So let's go take a look at book map Go back to ES And we'll get to some stocks there were in my opinion much much easier much better setups in many stocks today than the SAP 500 trading in this narrow range and that's That's the way I've been leaning lately doing a lot better with single stocks than the SAP 500 and NASDAQ. So anyway, here's the reversal random round right around 11 a.m. Just above the 454 level order flow here pretty easy to read note that as Price approached that 454 level larger traders were coming in with iceberg orders Let me just get this scale out of the way So larger traders coming in with iceberg orders and at this level Book map is showing one consolidated number there. That's 4036 contracts 35 different executions So larger traders in there buying with iceberg orders they used to hide their size as Price approaches that level also note the liquidity here at the 4580 level And then price reverses higher note the bearish order flow aggressive sellers moving price down and Then aggressive buyers start to come in you can see with the the green dots the volume dots Market buy orders for green market sell orders For pink Pullback long entry there as traders were taking positive Delta options positions And with a target up to the 455 level and note the increase in cumulative volume Delta so nice clues in spot gamma hero and Also an order flow here in book map iceberg orders Kimlet of volume Delta aggressive buyers coming in So really not much of a read in this chop. I Until 11 a.m Much more clear signal for me All right, let's take a look at Nasdaq And let's go to hero So I'm gonna look at a combined signal for Nasdaq. This is combined combined signal of indiax and qqq so the The short setups here were a little bit more clear Note that price was making slightly lower highs as Hero was moving lower Setting up shorts at around 10 10 15. Let's go take a look at book map So shorts around 10 10 15 And around the qqq 378 level So there's the short set up and let's take a look at the the long set up And that's just above the 375 level and note the shift in order flow here aggressive sellers down sell stop orders shown Here with the right small green red dot as well as the falling Yellow line then aggressive buyers start to come in large green dots And Sheena. Hello Ask at what point would you have considered either shorting or buying puts in Nasdaq and Well, I would I would buy puts in qqq and When you buy puts I I don't think you have to be as precise in your entry. So I think The trade was For short just watching I saw I've already looked at at a hedging flow. It was slightly slightly negative slight As I think order flow was also slightly negative. So just buying a 378 put would have been the would have been the trade for qqq and just You know, there were multiple tests of this 378 level And really no hint in order flow or hedging flow that price was going to move higher All right, so that's the short entry by a qqq put would have been a good trade or selling selling qqq shares or NQ futures All right, let's take a look at the long setup just like Just like the S&P 500 and I thought this was a little bit more clear more of a divergence Set up here Hero starts to rise and just a couple of minutes later those aggressive buyers come in to the Nasdaq All right, let's take a look at some single stocks. I've got about four or five minutes. There were some good setups and stocks So first of all, let's go to the stocks that reported earnings there's Google It gapped up pretty substantially and let's see right now Google is trading up just about Between five and half and six percent and note that traders were As price moved down Traders were buying calls that show them by the rising orange line And as soon as the call buyers took their foot off the gas Google started to move lower but a good long setup from about 935 just after the cash open Let's go take a look at the chart and book map Go to Google So there's your long setup. You can see all the aggressive buyers there All right, the next is Microsoft and Microsoft Gapped down and so far it's trading down around four and a half percent today All right, let's take a look at at hero for Microsoft I'm going through these quickly because I have to stop in just a couple of minutes Microsoft nice divergent short here Hero continue to move down price moved up and then responded lower Let's take a look at Book map Microsoft. So there's the reversal lower as traders continue to take negative Delta positions All right, the last I want to take a look at is Amazon and there were some Some other setups as well. So let's go go to hero Will quickly for Amazon and this Was really interesting to me set up a great. Let me just point out this Set up Hero continues to rise just a steady uptrend traders taking positive Delta positions Setting up a great Divergence long here. Let's go back to book map. I'm going to go to the S&P 500 now So we're ready for the for the announcement. We'll go to book map So here's your Long setup in Amazon Note the aggressive buyers coming in All right, let's go take a look at the S&P 500 and We'll watch for the announcement coming out in less than 30 seconds All right, the announcement is intimate imminent Zoom in a bit here. All right, so they The announcement is the FOMC did as expected 25 basis point rate hike We'll watch this for just a couple of minutes Then we'll we'll see what options traders are doing and as I usually point out When I'm trading I'm looking at two screens. So I'm looking at book map on one screen and Hero on another screen. I don't have to jump back and forth But of course I'm presenting on only one screen so I can I have to jump back and forth So for the S&P 500 still a pretty muted response note the In the chart here, this is the VWAP the the blue line and the purple line is the session Volume point of control. So that's what those two lines are. Let's see what options traders are doing And on this I'm going to go to a shorter look back period Let's go to 30 minutes. That'll give us a little bit more clarity so Sheena ask Before I go, where can I find the PDFs and discord? So I I'm not quite sure what you're talking about If you're talking about Tom B's PDFs they are that's that's kind of off topic. He's a separate presenter And he has a webinar at live daily stream at at 11 30 All right, so my guides I really don't have any any PDFs like Tom does I have some information Pinned in discord. So go to my channel option stash dug and look for the pin icon in the upper right corner But I I don't have any like a playbook like like Tom does maybe I have not looked at his PDFs, but Sorry, I don't have anything quite like that. All right, so it looks like so far Initially options traders taking positive delta positions again remember, I'm looking at a a shorter look back period a 30 minute look back period instead of cumulative data for the entire day Let's go back to Go back to book map So still pretty narrow range Price trading in a price still trading within that 454 to 455 level Note that this stop orders took out the 40 4580 80 liquidity and that 4580 liquidity has been in the order book I'm gonna go all the way back to So came in sometime last night right here and And it looks like it has more orders Passive buy orders limit buy orders built at that level until they were finally filled with this Sweep stopped run down to Down to that level just below the spy 454 level. Let's take a look at NASDAQ Also a pretty pretty muted response Looks like another quick sweep down to just below the 376 level Let's go back and see what options traders are doing. We'll take a look at NASDAQ remember, we're on a 30 minute look back period so Looking at just the last 30 minutes of data and here NASDAQ options traders are taking negative delta positions. So they're fading this move So far That's you know, that's for the first seven minutes And actually that started around 130 and then on the other hand there has been some light iceberg buying notice the The rising light blue line and these are very small orders compared to the S&B 500 But large traders are in buying with iceberg orders On the end other hand options traders taking negative delta positions and So far for both the S&B 500 and NASDAQ. This is a pretty muted move Let's go back to the S&B 500 so the S&B 500 still stuck in the 454 to 455 range as the algos continue to parse through the statement that indicates inflation remains elevated Unemployment remains low job gain job gains robust and let's see what some single stocks are doing So let me know Let me know what you guys want to want to see do you want to continue to watch the S&B 500 and NASDAQ or take a look at some single stocks Anybody have any any thoughts or any opinion? All right, so stay focus wants to take a look at Google again All right, so Google not doing much here trading at a range between 129 and 130 So we'll take a look at Tesla Tesla was a good long this morning Now looks like moving higher again Note the bullish order flow This morning pullbacks pullback entries and Now Tesla moving higher again note the shift in order flow a lot of aggressive buyers coming in Let's see what options traders are doing in Tesla. Let's go back to the one-day look back period so Options trades and hedging flow in Tesla have been bullish all day Sending up longs pullback entries Always looking for long entries with options traders Taking positive Delta positions when traders buy calls market makers Sell calls and they have to buy stock to hedge their Delta exposure. All right, so Let's see karma FX wants to look at Netflix Looks like kind of a choppy session here in Netflix But overall Well first I think they'd probably the easiest setup was right at the open here as Price it looks like moved up and now I don't have Netflix in in bookmaps So I can't look at this. Let's zoom in on on this morning session. It looks like there was a slight move up to the 425 Hedgewall and then traders started taking negative Delta positions. So the trade if you were fast It looks like would have been to buy a put at the 425 level and That would have paid very well and then another Short set up as Netflix moved up and heroes started to move lower again This time a ride around the 421 422 level All right, so there's Netflix All right, then karma FX wants to look at AT&T. That's We'll take a look at that not much of a mover. I don't think it it may not be in here and I don't think it is I don't I don't have in a book map and I Think that's a symbol for AT&T. T is that correct? So anyway, it's not in there. It's not I Don't think there's much of an options market in AT&T. All right, so uncle wants to take a look at meta and on the other hand, there's quite a bit of options trading in meta Long-end short setups as usual. There's a very strong Correlation between options trades hedging flow and price action and meta So a reversal long Let's take a look at Focus on this setup just right around 10 a.m. And note the slight divergence and hero here Hero falls price makes An equal high and then starts to move lower. So a little bit of a divergence setup there at 10 a.m. And Then a reversal just after 11 With the indices as traders start taking positive delta positions. So this Nasdaq and SAB 500 started moving higher before Before meta. So let's let's go take a look at meta and you're very welcome karma FX Glad I can help. All right, so let's go back to bookmap now So Tesla continues to move higher. And here's the setup the short setup in In Tesla Just between the three hundred 301 level and good for eight or nine points Well, the SAB 500 was chopping around in a one-point range but at the spy, you know one-point spy range much more activity action in single stocks At least for today and you can see the shift in order flow as well. Notice all the Green dots market buy orders aggressive buyers moving price higher right to the 301 level And then the sellers start to come in With the pink dots aggressive sellers Market sell orders and price moves down and again You can see the shift in order flow as aggressive buyers start to come in as price reverses right around the 292 level So let's go and there's that 1105 1110 reversal that we looked at in hero well, let's go back and see what is happening in the SAB 500 so it looks like Yes went up and tested the Looks like the tested the 455 level to the to the tick Let me just check that on a chart on another screen here. All right, so the high for that bar I'm looking at another screen was exactly 455 the volatility trader to the tick Very interesting So that level that has been Resistance earlier in the day continues to be resistance and now it looks like they're going to take another shot at it notice the rising light blue line Larger traders coming in with iceberg orders 275 contracts three executions 232 contracts to executions Let's go take a look at hero and see what Options traders are doing. So let's go back to SAB 500 and for the SAB 500, there's so much cumulative Data that I'm gonna go back to the 30 minute look back here and see if that gives us any more clarity Anyhow does somewhat but still not Not aggressive action here So as usual traders are buying calls and buying puts Calls shown by the orange line Notional value is positive 240 million and They're buying puts notional value is negative 300 and six 358 million and although the the signal is Rising It is net negative As we just saw by the the put buyers being more aggressive than the call buyers and Let's see if we get any additional clue by looking at the zero DTE traders So here. Yeah, this is This is interesting. So we'll go back just so the we're looking at mostly the information after the announcement at 2 p.m. And here Zero DTE traders are net taking positive Delta positions So these are options that expire today for SPX spy XSP and ES futures But now that seems to be shifting a little bit lower taking their foot off the gas and let's Take a look at NASDAQ so similar situation the zero DTE traders are Leaning more positive. Let's go back to book map. All right, so we know that this is a potential resistance level But order flow Does look a little bullish. There are a few small iceberg orders and now Now price is reversing lower So that so far that 377 475 level call wall acting as resistance Let's go take a look at at hero again so the really the Biggest clue so far is really this overall trend lower and also the negative notional value for all Explorations pick the book map and larger traders continue to buy with iceberg orders Like blue line continues to increase on the other hand aggressive sellers Or in their cumulative volume Delta continues to fall as well as Stop orders both negative while icebergs are positive Let's see what S&P 500 options traders are doing so so far Hero continuing to move lower after about 212 After that initial move up. Let's just check make sure I'm on the I'm on the 30 day 30 minute look back period We'll go back to the full day and that is a little bit more clear Still the same move lower at 212 So there's the move lower. So again, that was the reversal lower at that 455 level to the tick That acted as resistance and if you didn't Catch that first move lower There was a second chance pull back chance to the point of control and VWAP a Few minutes later. So I think the key here was just to trust your levels And again the spy 455 volatility trigger has been key resistance all day Notice when we look at the entire day We can see that Sell stop orders have been falling all day as well as cumulative volume Delta Again both these numbers negative All right, I'm going to wrap it up in a couple minutes. The press conference starts In about two minutes any last questions comments So now it appears that the 454 level Acted a support. Let's go back and we'll take a look at At hero and see if there was any Yeah, there was a clue in in hero Right around 227 options traders started fading the move Taking positive Delta positions so mean reverting Type trading activity and options Right Powell comes on in one minute All right, so I'm going to Gonna wrap it up today. I want to thank everyone for watching. Thanks for your questions and comments and I'll let you Watch the action after the press conference and this should be I would think the press conference should be what actually moves the market since the 25 basis point rate hike was pretty much baked in with a 99% chance So again, thanks for watching. Thanks for your questions and comments Enjoy the rest of your afternoon and I will see you tomorrow. Thanks. Bye