 Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. When this stops, and I'm telling you it will, the only question is, is it going to stop tomorrow? Is it going to stop two weeks from now? Is it going to start up six months from now or a year from now? Eventually, it will stop. Again, giving back a day is okay. Don't give back your month. Don't give back your year because, again, you're trading with the blinders on. Hey, guys. Good evening, everybody. Welcome to another edition of the Access a Trader dot com nightly wrap up show. I hope everybody is doing okay. It was actually a really good day. We'll talk about that in a few minutes. I think I've always stated that time is always the best educator. There is no blueprint to this stuff. There is no big master plan, a right way or wrong way of doing it. Over the years, you're going to become a better trader just because of the screen time that you get, just because of the experiences you go through. More years that go by, you're going to start learning not what to do, but what not to do. I've always maintained the idea of two things. Number one, you're going to be a better trader in year five than you were in year one. You're going to be a better trader in year 10 than you were in year five. You're going to be a better trader in year 20 than you were in year 10. This is obvious. From the way the key to this business is really to store things in your mental roll-a-dex. This is where I've always maintained, especially to the newer trader, is even if you're not actively trading, nothing is a substitute for screen time. The more you watch the screen, you watch the order flow, you watch the action, the better you will start to identify it and you'll be able to make less and less mistakes as the years go on. And two months ago, we had the start, actually four months ago, we had the start of the corona, the COVID-19 super virus that basically crippled the economy, killed a lot of people, destroyed individual mom and pop businesses. And most of us that did the prudent things stayed home. So we were basically been on house arrest for about four months. But the things that I picked up from the trading aspect from four months ago of what was working and what was not working. So if you guys remember, the majority of time that we saw, especially in March, we had some phenomenal gap downs. And those gap downs were 1,000 points, 1,500 points, 800 points. So after a while, we became very numb to it. And the second part about that equation was, I remembered going all the way back to even the mortgage crisis, 2007, 2008. The bigger the gap down always created a better initial opportunity to the upside. Because again, think about it, when a stock gaps down, especially in the futures have very, very aggressive sell off on the overnight cash, majority of the names are going to gap down at least 90% of their average shoe range. So for stocks, average shoe range is $15 on the day. And the stock gaps down 13 and a half. More chances there not that the first move of value is going to be up, not down. Now obviously, we don't know where the stock is going to close. We're not in the guessing business. But again, you have to use math. You have to use probability. If something's average cost, again, it's 15, it gaps down 13 and a half. Obviously, the higher probability will be to the upside. And fast forward, the COVID virus came, it started, it got very, very aggressive. And the one thing we figured out very, very quickly, OK, you don't need to be a rocket scientist to understand what was going to get hit and what might actually do well. So you started seeing obviously with nobody going outside, nobody traveling, you realize that the hotels, the hotels, the airlines, the cruise ships, gaming, anything to do with leisure, restaurants, anything to do with people going out and spending money was going to come to a halt. Those were the natural cells, right? Again, nobody's booking an airline. How can the stock and how can the company obviously survive, right? Airlines went down, cruise ships went down, so forth and so on. And then we started thinking, we started seeing and the market obviously started reacting to companies that were projected to do very, very well. Because, again, of everybody staying home. So what was a detriment to the airlines, to the casinos, to the cruise ships? We're going to be a champion for those companies that could take advantage of most people if they had the luxury and the freedom to do so to work from home. So video conferencing, right? Zoom, streaming services, Netflix, right? Roku, companies that obviously everybody uses because nobody's going outside. So you need your food delivered, right? The supermarkets were doing very, very well. Amazon, which is the king of everything, was doing very, very well. Again, you're not going to go to a pet store. You're going to buy your pet supplies on Chewy.com. Even Peloton, okay? And I have a Peloton. I've used it five times in two and a half years, okay? Even Peloton was the quote unquote pure play of the stay at home movement because figure people can't go to the gym. The next best thing is ordering the equipment that they could use at the gym. So we kind of figure things out, right? And then again, this is the point of time. This is the point of seizing the opportunity and really looking at the moment where you're trading at what interval, at what stage of your career, what is going on. And remembering it's not just a trading day. It's not like a trading year. It's a period of your time that you have to remember. So there's certain areas of my life I remember very, very well. I remember when I first started. I remember the internet craze. I remember 9-11. I remember the mortgage mess. I remember the generational bottom of November of 2009, okay? And now I remember what COVID is, okay? And I have the kind of the blueprint that every trader's been trading for a long time kind of realize the same thing today as these stocks were getting attention. And you know, again, we talked about this in last night's video, okay? And again, it's not the point of, I told you so. It's not a matter of time if it's going to go in or stocks are going to get killed. Look, every market ends exactly the same way. Every, you know, every generational bull market or bull passage or bull interval, whatever you want to do, eventually they pull the plug. And as I said in last night's video, we don't know. It could happen tomorrow, which was today. It could happen next week, six months, a year from now. We don't know. Take it day by day. But again, always keep an eye out. Again, just because of the macro ramifications, what's going on in the world. And you know, again, it pains me to see two things happening. Okay, yesterday I talked about this in last night's video that, you know, okay, it's okay to give back a day, okay? But do not give back a week. Do not give back a month. Do not give back a year. Because again, the last thing you want to do is be arrogant enough to think that it can't happen to you and it can't happen again. And the most amazing part was, when you look at the scoreboard today, it wasn't the idea of the down one down 7%. Yeah, it looks crappy, right? The S&P, the NASDAQ goes down 5% and changed. Again, that wasn't the crazy part. The crazy part was the disbelief, okay? The disbelief from so many traders I saw on social media, whatever platforms you follow them on, or even, you know, just a general bias that they were in shock that it actually did happen. That the possibility was on the table not only was the rug going to be pulled, but they took a jackhammer and started nailing down your floor and breaking the foundation of your house. And unfortunately, what we talked about now for weeks, right? For weeks. And again, I didn't care if I was wrong throughout that mark. We had so many aggressive pivots to the upside, to the downside. It was more of we wanted to keep an eye out, right? We always wanted to warn, especially the newer trader, who've never gone through this, hey, this is going to happen, okay? It's inevitable. It will happen. All it takes is one match, right? All it takes is one match. They drop into the fire and you have a towering inferno. And that's exactly what happened today, okay? The biggest fear and the biggest question was, well, all the doctors, all the scientists, all the researchers, they were anticipating a second wave. We didn't know what that second wave was going to come. It was going to come during the warmer months, which they led to believe that, well, it's a little bit harder to get because everybody's outside instead of inside, spacing, exercise, your immune system is better. You're getting vitamin C and vitamin D through the natural sunlight. Everything's all good. All was going to come back in the fall. And the problem was, when you go back three weeks ago, okay, several things happened. You started seeing states open up. You started seeing Georgia. You started seeing Florida. Spring breakers all over the place. Then, unfortunately, the murder of Floyd happened. You had the protesters, millions and millions of people throughout the country, okay? On top of each other, literally on top of each other, breathing, this, that, the other thing. You had Vegas open up. People flocking to concedos, okay? Understand you could be outside protesting, you're outside. But now you are inside. You are standing over a poker table. You're standing in front of people. And every single time your emotions let up, you're screaming, you're saliva, everything's flying around. So you have all those people and the key was what was going to happen? What were going to be the numbers? It was interesting to see what was possibly going to happen next. Where are we going to have a little bit of a gradual uptick? What was going to be happening? And slowly but surely, and it started the day before, we started seeing slowly but surely numbers starting to come back. This state was up, Texas was up, California's up, Florida's up. And this is before, keep this in mind, this is before all the macro events started. So now Wall Street woke up this morning and said, well, wait a minute, now there's a problem. Is there a second wave coming? And we haven't even gotten the major cities yet. You don't think New York City is going to be out of control the next two weeks with these numbers. You don't think when Vegas comes back and Nevada comes back with their numbers, they're not going to be out of control. So again, what Wall Street does when they love a company, they pay for potential. When they hate something or hated scenario, they shoot first, ask questions later, and that's exactly what happened today. Big, big sell-off on Wall Street. Again, most of you guys probably didn't feel it. Especially as a trainer in the live webinar. We had a very, very specific game plan for today. And again, we went back to the memory bank for four months ago. This wasn't five, 10, 15 years ago that we had to figure out what works, what companies work during a sell-off, what companies work when everybody's home. We saw the airlines coming in. We saw, for example, the cruise ships down two, three days in a row. Those plays lost a little bit of value because they already had the moves. So now we had to kind of go to plan B, which companies were going to benefit from this. And again, I said, look, this is pre-market. Market-generated from spikes on COVID after the initial reopen in a lot of states. Look, it's time to make a list of the stay-at-home names. Luckily, right? We trade all of them. We pretty much trade all the stocks. Again, they're part of the beta or extended beta family. So it wasn't kind of, there wasn't anything out of the ordinary we were doing. And I said, look, the big gap down, initial value is to the upside. I'd like to see what happens in the first candle of the day. Be patient. Here was the problem. All these things started turning way before the 10 o'clock. We were pretty much done, I would say, by 10, 10.05, 10.10. There was so much value, right? In these names, there was so much value in these names that once they confirm, they absolutely exploded. And that's when the afternoon we started selling off, I was like, well, what's the point, right? Let's wait, let's see what happens tomorrow. Let's see again, because again, the market, just because it's soft today, there's a lot of companies still way above their ranges. I wanna show you that in a second. But yeah, these are the pivots for today. ZM was amazing, absolutely amazing. Again, the purest play for potential further stay-at-home scenarios. 219 needs to build for possibly to go green. We talked about this last night on the video. I thought I shot it had to go to 52 week highs. It took the 219, right? Here's the 219, right? 219, and just went absolutely nuts, okay? Went all the way to 232, fantastic trade. I mean, really, really fantastic trade. I was very, very happy with the trade. It was so aggressive. I caught this pretty well, very, very happy with the trade. Clorox, again, the play, again, the play at the stay-at-home movement. Again, Clorox wipes. Damn, things are still hard to get. 208, 208, 208.50 needs to build. Here is the Clorox. Here is Clorox. Here's the move on Clorox. It took out the 208 area. Went right to supply at 210.40, so a $2 move on Clorox. TDOC exploded. Again, a pure play, stay-at-home movements. It's the physicians, right? Internet. It's the physicians over the internet, okay? So 179 needs to build. Here was TDOC, right? So 179, this whole area here. The thing went to 188. I mean, just a huge, huge move. DL, man, even DL, this was a pure, this had nothing to do with anything. I just kind of liked the chart. And I said, hey, look, speculation play for all you guys who are trading the smaller names. 840, 850 needs to build. Look at DL, of all things. Flight to quality and safety, right? So it took out the 840, 850, and it closed literally at the high of the day almost at 870, go figure. I have no idea what this thing is, but go figure. Netflix I caught as well, pretty well as well. 433, 50, 434 needs to build to go green. And Netflix went nuts. I mean, really, really Netflix went nuts. Not only did it take out, and here's a sneaky pivot right here. Here's a 333, 34 area. Not only did this thing take out the sneaky pivot, okay? It took out the 40, right? 440 and went as high as 445. So huge moves, really, really big moves there as well. And I said, look, you see the theme, right? The natural COVID plays for the second wave. Again, 99% of the stocks gap down on the average to range, no real value to the short side. Again, we would need to see at least two days worth of selling just for stocks to break down. And here's the most amazing part of that statement. When you look at charts tonight, right? When you look at charts tonight, you will see one thing, okay? Stocks are not broken. That's the most amazing part. You got a 6% move, nearly 6% move on the NASDAQ, 7% move on the diamonds and five and change on the spies. Stocks are not even broken yet. And that was kind of my whole point pre-market saying that, again, we might need a couple of days of selling just for the stocks to get technical damage. And that's kind of my point. So when you look at the rising 20-day moving average on the Qs, every single time we hit the 20, we bounce. 20, we bounce. 20, we bounce. And again, we're literally at the 20. So the worst thing the market can do for the bulls tomorrow is gap up, okay? Because if we gap up tomorrow, okay, and we confirm the 20-day moving average, they will be not a second wave of COVID, they'll be a second wave of a bear raid. And this second wave can be very, very aggressive. Because if you look at all the names, a lot of the names is still way above their ranges, okay? Tesla might go down, but it's not as short, right? Amazon could go down, but it's not as short. Look at the video. The video is still $6 away from technical damage, okay? This is far from it. If you look at shop, and yes, can you have technical damage, but it's still 20, 25 points away from technical damage. So the idea that tomorrow is a gimme that the market will collapse, I don't think it's a gimme, okay? I don't think it's a, you know, it's a necessary buy-the-dip scenario as well just because today we didn't see any fight back in the bulls whatsoever. But again, I think tomorrow is a perfect scenario. Let the market open up, okay? What I'm hoping for, the market gaps up, okay? Cause 100% of my watch list tonight is shorts. It's just 100%, there's nothing, there's literally the only ones that I like tomorrow if they get a little stronger Netflix and Zoom because they were strong predominantly the day, but those are sneaky channels after 10 o'clock. So I'm watching the cruise ships, I'm watching the airlines, I'm watching selective beta names, but all in all, again, I think tomorrow is a 50-50 shot. If the market gaps down and can reclaim the 20-day moving average, then there's a shot, we have a dead cat balance, but if the market gaps up, and I'm telling you, I know it sounds crazy, especially if a lot of traders have been only trading for a very short time. If the market gaps up tomorrow, okay, and things start going green to red and it confirmed today's levels, it's a wrap. Guys, have a great night, everybody. Stay safe, everybody. Learn the lessons from the past. It's your friend. Screen time is your friend. The name of the game is staying in business and really appreciating the past and information you're getting from the past is going to really build your future. Guys, God bless. I'll see you all tomorrow. Congratulations for putting in the time to take control of your trading. You're one step closer to owning your future and achieving the success you desire. Want daily trade ideas directly from Dan? Straight off his personal watch list? Unlock our free PS60 vault where you'll get nightly updates on pivot opportunities we're watching for the next day's session. Click the link in the description to get started today.