 This is covering the spread. Here are your hosts, Jim Saunas and Dr. Ed Fang. What is going on everybody? Welcome on into covering the spread. That's right here on the FanDual Podcast Network and NumberFire.com where today we're getting you set for the 2022 Kentucky Derby by talking to Megan Devine getting her read on this year's horses. We're talking to her actually live from Churchill Downs. So pretty fun addition for this year once again to get her read on her favorite bets for this year's Derby. My name is Jim Saunas. I am a senior writer and analyst for NumberFire.com. Joined here as always by Dr. Ed Fang. You can find his work over at thepowerinc.com. Ed, we were off last week kind of. We had an episode of Ariel Epstein, but like I was not here because I was in France and Spain chilling. How was your quote unquote off week in the show? Quote unquote. I don't even remember what I did. Let's talk about what you did. How was your honeymoon? Awesome. So like we did Paris and then Marseille and then Barcelona. And we're in Paris. We were talking about like our itinerary and we're like, oh, we're going to Marseille next. And like everyone there was like, why are you going there? And I was like, we have friends there. So like we were visiting friends and I think Marseille wound up being my favorite part of the trip. Honestly, cause like we did like a hiking experience and they have you think called Kalonks and it's kind of like, it's a big mountain where you have like beaches in between the mountains and stuff like that. It's like we hiked it and it was really fun. It's like a gradual incline. That's not like you're like hiking a mountain. It's kind of just like you're walking in an incline for a very, very long time, but it was really cool. Got some awesome views. We had like Baguette lunch once we got there. So I had blue cheese that like tastes like a punchy on the face. So that's not a good stuff supposed to be. Yeah, it was, it was awesome. I had a, I had a great time and I'm awesome. I'm like happy to be back because I missed sports when I missed like work weirdly and miss my dog. But like it was a, it was a great time. Yeah, that's awesome. I mean, there's plenty of soccer going on over there right now. So yeah, we were actually in Barcelona the day with Sunday. They were, I don't honestly remember what they were doing because I don't pay attention to soccer, but like they had a big game that day and we were there. It was fun atmosphere like being around people. We were in Paris during the French election. So like weird timing to be in different places. Luckily, like it was not a bad situation for the French election because like it seemed like it could have been pretty bad in terms of like people's reaction to it, but one of being okay. Have you been to either Paris or Barcelona? I've definitely been to Paris. I love it. I would like to go back for an extended amount of time. So crap. One of these days. So we got to get you to Barcelona too then because yeah, great. See a game at the camp new and yeah, and then you know in Madrid, there was a huge game yesterday. Champions League semi-final Man City was up two goals on aggregate after the 90th minute and somehow we on Madrid scored twice in stoppage. It was unbelievable and then they won. Yeah. In extra time. It was it was one of the more unbelievable sporting things I've ever seen. I don't know what the odds were. When it hit the 90th minute and they were down two goals against the best team in the world. Right. But I can't think that they were. They were very good. Yeah. So, and I believe that the Bernabéu has. I mean, it's one of these places that's in excess or near 100,000 people and that must have been fun to go from, you know, down to like right like one of the most electric wins I've ever seen. Yeah. I mean, like it would have been awesome to go to a game, even though again, like I'm not a soccer person like just to be around the atmosphere for like a European soccer match. Right. Like an important one, I should say too. Like that would have been really fun. We didn't have time to do it because like we were just kind of buzzing around from place to place. But it would have been really fun to do still would love to go back and do that, you know, maybe trip to Barcelona, but we got a lot of other places on our bucket list. We got to get to first. So, but so great time. Very sunburned at one point. Luckily no longer there, but it was a blast for sure. Happy to be back though. Just in time to talk Kentucky Derby. So we're going to talk with Megan Divine. You can find her on Twitter. She is at Megan Divine TV. She is also one of the hosts in the horse racing happy hour podcast. She is on America's best racing and also owns her own company called vid horse, which does a lot of horse racing videos. So well versed in the world of horse racing. We're talking Megan about this year's Kentucky Derby. Get her read on this year's field. Who she likes and she has a different opinion of the favorite than what you may get at the sports books and get a read on this year's race in just one second. But first a quick reminder to make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast. We're an Apple podcast Spotify Stitcher Google podcast. You name you can find us there and while you're there, if you like what you hear, leave us a rating and review as well before we talk to Megan though got to go back to the NFL draft, which was this past week and recap what went down there. Covering the past. So the one downside of being in my honeymoon last week is I didn't get to watch the NFL draft. I would wake up in the morning and check my phone and I remember the first round. I was like looking at the picks like, okay, this this, you know, this is interesting and didn't realize that the trades had happened until like at least 10 minutes later. I was like, oh man, Traylon Birx and AJ Brown play inside by side. That's kind of fun. And then I was like, oh, just kidding. That's not happening. But it seemed like kind of a fun round. And also it seemed like a lot of people profit from a betting perspective and Ed, you talked about Kenny Pickett going top 10 here on the show, but it sounds like the stuff you sent out in your email performed pretty well. Yeah. So, you know, the week. Yeah. When I talked about it on covering the spread, I had Kenny Pickett in the top 10 and but I also had, you know, as I had some positions on Kenny Pickett being the first quarterback and I couldn't remember which one I talked about on the show and which one I put in my newsletter. So Kenny Pickett going in the top 10 was dead the week of the draft. Me and both, both he and my week, Willis were dropping rapidly. So I actually bet Pickett over 12 and a half. I believe to kind of hedge my bets a little bit and then that closed at 16 and a half in some places to just to give you some sense of just how his stock was dropping. When I came on the show, like his stock was actually rising according to the data on grinding the mox and then it just took a complete nose dive. So for Pickett to go 20. And more than equal is strangely not being taken until the third day of the draft feel that feel like I got a little lucky there. So feel pretty fortunate with that one. You know, some of the other bets that I wrote about in the newsletter wrote about Dr. Eager's tip. Dr. Eric Eager, he really liked over gosh, was it 10 and a half SEC players? I forget the exact number, but it went well over. So that was a nice one. Couple of Georgia defensive guys ended up getting in the first round. Some of the guys that weren't expected to go in the first round. And then, yeah, the day of the draft, you know, I made predictions for the top five players based on both the sharp mox that I collected and then and then some of the big and market data as well. So at that point, Trevon Walker was going number one, he was like minus 500. So that was relatively easy. There was some question about who would go number two. Aiden Hutchinson was a favorite, but there was a lot of money coming in on K-1 Trivedo. Those markets were like a roller coaster the day of the draft. Finally, you know, Hutchinson ended up, I think closing around minus 200-ish and he ended up going number two. And then early that week, Derek Stingley became the betting favorite at number three. Going to Houston, that happened. And then there was a lot of, there was a lot of chatter on Sauce Gardner going number four, both with the sharp mox and the markets. So I had those top four in my newsletter. So that was kind of nice. Yeah. And then and then based on that, like I knew that if Tivido didn't go number two, he probably wasn't going to hit the under on four and a half. So I had him over four and a half in the newsletter. So that hit as well. He did go number five, which is actually a huge surprise to me. Charles Cross, the offensive tackle was like a pretty big favorite to go to the Giants there, but they completely switched course went with the, I don't know, I would, I would say high variance deep, you know, edge rusher from Oregon there. So, you know, overall for the draft, I was up a couple of units, nothing to write home about. But, you know, it's good to be, it's good to be ahead and looking forward to next year. Well, that SEC one you mentioned, Ben Brown of pro football focus on our show, he talked about that one too, like in the SEC over and he also had Stinglidio top 10, which was plus money at one point and went up going third overall. So he went up, his stock went way up last week, the last week for the draft. And like, I think again, I think that there were a lot of smart people tuned in who did well at the NFL draft. And I saw a quote from Chris Andrews somewhere on Twitter talking about how like, just how miserable it makes him to have to like, like provide markets for this stuff. And like, we kind of saw why that happened again. And like, it's something to just know like, I'm in New York, I can't bet it. So I didn't pay as much attention this year as I typically would in terms of like the betting stuff. But like, if you're going to say where you can bet the draft, you absolutely should take advantage of that because it seems like it's a spot where there is a good amount of edge to be had. Yeah, for sure. I mean, the real trick for me, I think is like trying to figure out whether the markets move first or whether, you know, you can get information from sharp mocks and other insiders. I put together the sharp mocks, maybe about a week before the drafts and I think seven out of 10 of them already had Walker at number one. And this is when he was an underdog. And yeah, luckily I got a really good price on that over the weekend before all the market shifted. So and then, you know, like, I feel like, you know, for example, when Stingley became the prohibitive favorite at number three, that wasn't the time to go against that and say, oh, no, let's trust the sharp mocks there that are from last week. That didn't feel like the right move as well. So if you do see a strong move in those markets, that's probably somebody with some sharp information, although clearly it's never perfect because the person that had sharp information on Charles Cross to go to the Giants at number five, that didn't work out. So but but I think in general, you know, that's the kind of thinking that yeah, I mean, that's the thing you got to do. You got to figure out information versus markets and which one you can trust. And that comes with experience, you know, doing this stuff. So, you know, I don't know if like taking notes on what you notice this year is like the key thing to do because it's such it's a once in a year event. So take note of what happened this year and go back over those notes next year. I do that with NFL DFS every year. You know, I take notes at the end of the year, go back to those notes at the beginning of the next year. So I can kind of refresh myself. Okay, what did I learn last year? How much does that matter for this year? I'd recommend that for sure, especially with a thing as unique as the NFL drafts. So we'll come back to that next year. Once again, hopefully get some more money then. But for now, it's time to talk about the 2022 Kentucky Derby. We're going to do so with Megan Devine. You can find her on Twitter at Megan Devine TV. And of course, you can find her on the horse racing happy hour podcast in America's best racing. We're going to get our thoughts on the 2022 Kentucky Derby live from Churchill Bounds to preview Saturday's race. Let's bring Megan Devine back into covering the spread live from Churchill Bounds. Once again, we've done this with Megan for the past couple of years now. Megan, we appreciate the time in a chaotic, crazy week for you. How are you doing today? Thank you. Yeah, a chaotic and crazy seem like casual words for my schedule. I like, I'm not even quite sure if I can come up with something else to describe it. But yeah, basically in a nutshell, I wake up at like three o'clock in the morning. I don't get home until very late at night and then I wake up and do it all over again. So it's a Derby week is a little bit crazy. Yeah. So for us, we know what happened Saturday. We know everything that goes on then, but what are you doing during the week to not just to prepare for like, but just like doing your job, you know, what goes on for you during the week? For sure. So this is actually my 10th year with NBC sports. So I work for them as an ENG producer. So when you're watching the broadcast, anything that you see that's like on the backside and the stables with the trainers, the horses and their stalls, horses on the track working out, I produce all of that stuff for them. So the horses wake up early too and they come out to train between the hours of 515 and 10 o'clock in the morning. Most of them on the early part of that. So we have to be here with the cameras and make sure everything's in place to capture all the action for everybody watching from home on Derby Day. That's a lot. Yeah, like that's that's a lot to be doing throughout the entire week. I mean, it's not just one day. You've been doing this since Tuesday, I believe you said it was a since Monday, actually Monday. Yeah. I mean, the good thing about it is that it and I know we've talked about this before and we'll go into detail again. But you know, the good thing about it is that I get kind of an up close and personal view of some of these horses, which I think really, really helps me or really hurts me by like giving me too much of like a haunch play, I guess, you know, sometimes if I see something, but because I'm able to see these horses, I can really incorporate that into my handicapping. So when I'm studying for my shows to be on air on Friday and Saturday, it's I've got all this extra knowledge that doesn't come from the form. Well, I think that's a good thing though is because you are incorporating different knowledge than what the bookmakers are looking at. I mean, certainly they're probably getting some kind of knowledge, but like, sure, if you can find a nuanced edge in terms of where you hire hand analyzing things, you can actually like that can be a benefit for two for sure too. So let's actually start. Yeah, let's talk about what you've learned at the track this week because you said that because you have a deep knowledge of horses, you can kind of look at them and kind of study them. You get a lot of value from the in person stuff. So what have you learned? You think this week in your time at Churchill now so much. I mean, it's it's one thing to kind of obviously I watch a lot of replays when I'm handicapping these races and you know, we'll read the form and all that. But I think seeing them in the morning and especially here on Derby because it's I mean, keep in mind where we're racing. So I'm dressed up from Tuesday on to Saturday. So there's action here at the track. People are actually coming in the mornings like the general public is here to watch the Derby horses trained during their specific time. So you have a lot more kind of buzz than you usually do and and these horses are young. They're only three years old. So really they're like teenage boys at fs, you know, the pre team. So they can they're still developing physically mentally. And so they kind of have to take in everything that's happening around them because it's just a little bit of practice for the hundred and fifty thousand people that'll be screaming on Saturday when the gates open. So, you know, if they can kind of get a handle on that and figure out how to compose themselves, they are certainly well much better off. And so I think the mental aspect watching some of the horses and how they react to things being in new places. If they're not typically here in Kentucky, if they should then from California or other places is really helpful. But even just the physical of the horses getting over the track, each surface is so different at every racetrack. And so some horses take to some surfaces better than others and so watching their stride efficiency, if they're moving well, you know, what their attitude is like and how they handle the turns or working here and all that stuff is really important when you're kind of handicapping the race. So, so, yeah, all those things go into it. I mean, specifically the horses that stood out to me over this track for a long shot. The horse like charge it who is 20 to one. I thought he just floated over this surface and he's a really, really efficient mover. So he's not a horse that I expected to come in here and like, but he's one that's caught my eye and even the Japanese horse crown pride too. He has been my gosh just working amazing over this track and working often too. Typically we work horses every like seven days is when they get a timed workout. He's worked every seven days, then three days, then seven days, then three days. He just worked yesterday, three days before the Kentucky Derby, which you really don't see. So that horse was gonna be super fit. Is that a good thing? Like, do you view that as being a positive or like an endorsement of like it's endorsement? Or how do you view that? I mean, it's different because obviously in different places you have different, I don't know, exercises, different types of training techniques and stuff like that. And so it's very unusual here in US at least in modern times. I think years ago trainers used to give a horse a blowout you would call it. So like a breeze really close to the race. Some people even said like day of in some cases way back when, but the animals changed so much just through breeding, but they're a little bit more lighter boned. And we don't typically see that nowadays, but I guess this is somewhat normal in Japan. So it's just a really different way of approaching things. There were ways to catch a fish. Megan, how old did you say these horses are? They're three years old. So all these horses are three years old. The horses typically live until they're like 20-ish, 30. Well, you described it as preteen. Yeah, they're babies. I mean, we start horses, you can sell them. Typically a lot of these horses are sold as yearlings. So when they're one years old and then they grow up a little bit more and then they can typically start their career as two-year-olds. So I mean a horse might race until it's seven or eight years old if it's a gelling, a little bit older. Typically it's like between four to six possibly four and five. So this is the very beginning of their career for many of them. I mean, there's a horse like Tava in the Kentucky Derby who this will only be his third start. So he's got a lot of inexperience on his side because his young horse hasn't had a lot of races. And so that's something else that goes into it too. Is this like putting my 10-year-old out to race? No, like pretty much 100%. Yeah. Like legitimately 10-year-olds? Line him up. I mean, yeah, sometimes because also these horses all have different breeding. And so some might develop faster than others. You might have a horse who maybe right now isn't able to do it but then in a couple months or a year that's the horse that's better than the rest of them. So they all kind of peak at different times and it's just trying to figure out and that's a trainer's job is trying to get your horse to peak physically and mentally in time for the biggest race in our country. Yeah, that's fascinating. I was just reading a little bit about how they are, there's certain organizations that are giving bonuses to 10-year-old tennis players because they feel the optimal balance of return on investment but not stressing them out when they're too young. Yeah, I mean, that's totally what it is here. I mean, the two-year-olds and the three-year-olds, that's a faster return on your investment because it takes a while to get to this point. You've got an 11-month pregnancy for mayors. Before that, you got to choose which time you're going to and then you got to raise the horse and so by the time you're here at the Kentucky Derby, I mean, there's so much that has gone into bringing these horses to this point. And part of bringing them to this point is prep races and we've had a lot of those throughout the past couple of months and that gives at least an idea of what these horses can do on the track. So when you look at those prep races in this year, what did you learn from those and try to prep for Saturday? Yeah, I mean, they're super important. You know, it gives you the chance to kind of see horses up against each other so you get matchups that you might see in the Derby, right? If there's horses coming out of the same prep races, you can see maybe if there's something that happened, did one horse, was it supposed to do really well and then it flopped for whatever reason? Is there a reason for that? Did it run into traffic or something like that? Did it stumble out of the gate? Could be another thing. So those are really helpful. I typically try to kind of rate them on my own. We do that a lot of my podcasts, The Horse Race and Happy Hour, and we kind of have our own graded stakes scale because with graded stakes, you've got grade one is the top level, like the Kentucky Derby and a few others. Grade two is right below that, then a grade three as far as the toughness and prestige of the race. And so sometimes you get races that are, you know, grade one, grade two. And I think I kind of thought it was more of like a grade two or grade three caliber. So I think if you could try to qualify these races a little bit and the types of horses that were in them, oftentimes that really helps with seeing, you know, which horses might have been better prepared or which ones kind of had an easier route. I mean, it's no different than like a football schedule, right? I mean, if you're, if you're matched up against teams that are a little bit easier or something like that, like that might be an easy win for you to go. They'll help your record a little bit more. But yeah, it's, you kind of have to really follow along throughout the year in those prep races and figure out how tough that was. Excellent. So we had the post draw on Monday. Can you explain to me what that means? And where are you seeing on betting on Saturday? Yeah, absolutely. So for these horses to get their number that's assigned to them, they actually have a randomized draw. So it's like little dicing. They call it pills. And so they, and the horses are drawn randomly as well in order. So they'll pull a horse name. They'll say, you know, Zandun or whatever. And then they'll shake up the little guy. It's not unlike playing craps a little bit, but you know, different. And then they'll see what number comes up and that's the post number for them. So it allows, you know, kind of more of a fair chance for, for anybody. It's not like one person is getting preference of a better draw than others, which there can be. There's a couple of different things that goes into the starting date. One would be from a pace scenario. Sometimes that comes into play. If you're a horse that has a lot of early speed, you might want to be towards the inside because you don't have to, you know, it's just the straightest path, right? So it's not the beggar in theorem or something or triangle. But you don't have to come all the way from the right side to go left to get to the rail and go forward. So that's important. Also, they have to get all these horses in the gate and they don't do that. It is the exact same time. So they kind of go two by two. And so if you have a horse that's really, we say fractious in the gate, it's kind of a little uneasy. Doesn't like being in confined quarters, which some horses don't like. And you're one of the first to load. You've got to wait for the rest of the field to load. That might mentally have an effect on a horse. They might be kind of prancing about and they're not, you know, their feet planted on the ground to then push off of and have a really clean start. So those kind of things can affect it. And so when you go to the post position draw, you're certainly hoping that your post position. It's going to match up with your horses running style, whether they be a closer front running type, etc. And also that hopefully got a horse that handles the gate. Well, what's most of them do, but if you do happen to have one that has a little bit of trouble, like I think California, Chrome wasn't always very good in a gate a few years ago. That can really make a big difference in the start of your race. So we're not only talking about, I mean, the equivalent for humans is putting my 10 year old in a cage for what? And then it's before letting them run off on a track. It's only, it's only a couple of seconds. But sometimes, you know, if there's a horse that acts up a little bit and it does take them longer, say it takes them like 30 seconds to load the horse or so. I mean, that's a long, a long time past your 10 year old to sit there quietly for 10 seconds and then say go. Yeah, that's basically what it is. I can't do that now when I'm 30. So like that's no shot, no shot of a muggler. Right, 100%. I mean, it's no different than like track and field, just if you just were waiting there for a while and, but you're all pumped up and everything and, you know, to then go is not always the easiest thing to do. The worst part of running road races is sitting there at the start line, which usually is being at least 10 to 15 minutes, which I try to avoid. You know, like I try to, you know, jump over a gate. So yeah, that's right. You want to keep the blood pumped up and everything. And it's the same with the horses. You'll see the jockeys after the post grade. They take the horses and they warm up the jog. They, you know, kind of run slowly around a little bit just to get the blood flowing, make sure the horses is focused and ready to go. So it's kind of the same thing to then stand there and just wait. They're kind of like, are we doing this or not doing this or and you have people in the crowd too. So now you've got a horse in the confined space and there's 150,000 people, you know, cheering and stuff and they're like, what is going on? Cause they've never, these horses have never seen that many people at a track until this day. Yeah. It's a, it's an interesting dynamic for sure and something fun to consider. And you talked about that two years ago in the 2021, which is in August about the, the importance of that too. So yeah, so yeah, so the September race back then and luckily nothing changes for this one, but definitely it does matter at times for sure. So let's talk about the favorites here for this year. Zandan is a favorite of TVG. They are three to one. We've got epicenter at seven to two. Nobody else in that same tier. They are the runway favorites right now. So when you look at those two, what makes them the favorites in your eyes? That's a good question on Zandan cause he is not the favorite of my eyes. Interesting. Okay. Who is the favorite? Yeah, I mean epicenter. Okay. I mean for Zandan, for me, he did have a very impressive blue grass race, which was a grade one, but I think there were probably some good grade two prep races that were just as good as that. So that's kind of an example of, you know, while technically on paper that was a better race than some of the other prep races. I don't necessarily think with the field that was in there, that that was harder than some of the others. So for me, I kind of moved it down in my own ranking. So if you take that one win out, that one race out, then his only other win in his four race career is a sprint race that he had at Belmont. And so you're talking about distance is huge. You know, you don't send the same guys that are running the, you know, 55 meter to go run a marathon. It's not the same body type, right? And so when you have a horse, that's really good at one thing. And this horse was sprinting and a lot of times traders, you start off their young horses sprinting. That's fine. And then they kind of moved them up. I don't know that there's enough, you know, I think he's a really good horse, but I think there's others in here that have proven themselves at a longer distance, a bit more than this one has. He's had good okay performances, even where he didn't win. He had an okay, a nice second only by a nose and then an okay third, but his third, he lost at the center. And I thought at the center was probably the better horse of those two. And then he dodged at the center by going to the blue grass, where epicenter then, you know, continue to run in Louisiana and one. And so I genuinely thought epicenter was going to be the favorite of this race. I was shocked when he wasn't, but from a betting standpoint, I love it because everybody just go beds and leave me at the center alone. So you got epicenter at 72. Do you still think there's value in that number where it currently stands? I mean, it depends on how you play it, right? Yes, I do think there is because you're still, even if you just did a win that you're still going to get paid out for it. If you invest or nothing, and I mean, if you're doing the $2 one, but no, they're not going to make much money, but if you feel pretty confident about it, 72, if you increase your base wager, you know, so say you play 20 bucks, 50 bucks, a hundred bucks, whatever it is on there. I think you're still going to get paid pretty decently. And plus the pools are big on Kentucky Derby day anyways. So, you know, you've got to, I think there's some value. I wouldn't be surprised to see, unfortunately, epicenter at a much lower price than 72. But that's why I really wish we had big thoughts because I would have put this in a long time ago. Yeah. Awesome. Megan, are there any other horses with some longer odds that are peaking your interest? Yeah, I mentioned Chargette who I thought was pretty impressive just physically on the racetrack throughout the week. He just really floated over the surface and just looked so comfortable. He looks like he's a horse that's kind of got it together. He's not one that's really acted up very much in anything that I've seen. So I didn't come into this kind of expecting to like him, but on paper, I mean, he has had three races in his career. Just one win for him as well, which was a maiden race, meaning his, you have to, we say break your maiden. So you have to win a maiden race, typically not half there, but most won't do before you move to the tougher races. And so he only has one maiden win. And then he's got a second place finish in the Florida Derby, where he ran against White Ibarrio. So all of his races have been at the distance of a mile or greater. So clearly this is a horse that they thought from the beginning, not like they tried him at six for a long second mentioned with Sandin and then, you know, saw how he handled the stretch out for this horse. They thought this is one that isn't going to be fast enough to win a sprint race, but he's probably got enough speed and enough stamina to win a longer distance race. So I tend to like horses like that in a race like the Derby, because you're going a mile and a quarter, which none of these horses have gone that distance before. So that's a really stamina and endurance are huge when you're talking about this type of race. So he's one for me that I thought was really interesting. And then Crown Pride, the Japanese horse who again, I really didn't think that I was going to be a believer in this one, especially with the kind of unique training style that they have, how many times he's worked out. But for me, I think in watching these workouts, it's more about how they did it and the time a lot of it. And so we actually worked on May 4th. So just yesterday, I feel like forever ago. And he worked four furlongs in 46 and change, which a typically, you know, a pretty decent time for four furlongs is 48 seconds. He did it in 46 and that's really fast. But the way he did it, I would have expected to see the jockey maybe like really pushing on him in the morning and trying to get him to, you know, go forward and asking him for speed, but he wasn't. The horse just did it really well within himself. And so, yeah, he looks fit. It's very different. You know, he's going to have to, this horse is in other countries, they run both directions. We only run to the left hand side. He's run right-handed and left-handed. I don't think he's ever seen a crowd quite as big as what he's going to see on Derby Day. And even like the gate, the starting gate, when it opens, there's a bell that rings. In other countries, there's no bell. So the starting gate is just open. So earlier, I think it was last week. He actually dumped his rider. So the rider fell off because the horse spooked at the bell. I'm sure it came out of the gate, but they've schooled him in the gate. You know, so he's practiced a lot of times this week. So I think he should be okay with that now. But yeah, I mean, he's just, he really fit. He's like a gym rat. Insights on the ground from Megan Devine. So last year you got engaged at the Derby. This year, it's your birthday. So I feel like that has to, that has to add up to being just a great week. So like we're looking at the center. We're looking, charge it in crown pride. I feel like we got to feel really good about them. Given the good vibes around you for this weekend. You know, I hope so. Yeah, then the Derby this year is really competitive. I think there's a lot of nice horses. Nessie is another one that I'm not really sure what to do with yet that I'm including at a eight to one price. I'm not, not as much of a price, but there as the 20 to ones, but still still some value. But yeah, it's, it's a busy week. It's a crazy week. Honestly, I almost prefer my birthday to be the day after Derby, but that'll never happen because it's the first Saturday in May and you can only go up to seven to get that number. So I don't, I probably will not even remember that answer every day. We will be so busy. Well, regardless, we remember now. Happy birthday, Megan. Thank you so much for your time and your insights and we appreciate it. Have a good luck to you. Have you gone on again soon. All right guys. Thanks so much. Covering the future. Big thank you once again to Megan divine for swinging by and breaking down the 2022 Kentucky Derby. If you want to deploy the stuff that Megan mentioned, you can do so via TVG. The Derby is here and there's no better place and better time to get in the action than TVG because new players can bet risk-free up to $200 on TVG. That is right. You can get up to $200 back in site credit on your first single horse win wager. If your horse doesn't win plus TVG's money back special gives every customer to $10 cash back on select races. Your horse finishes second or third plus you'll also get access to free picks analysis and so much more win or get your money back for the Derby with TVG Sunday TVG dot com slash cover to bet risk-free up to $200 again TVG dot com slash cover is in cover in the spread. We got our own little promo code over here TVG dot com slash cover to bet risk-free up to $200 on this year's Kentucky Derby at TVG. One of the things I want to talk about here coming out of the Megan interview is the value of in-person information and like it's not in the sense of like oh if I can watch Max Scherzer warm up that'll be worth a lot. That's it's not it's more so like this specific event where you actually can gain information from being in person. It's probably information that may be under accounted for when it comes to this because most of the money coming in the Kentucky Derby is not going to be from people like Megan who are on the ground and I think that Ed getting her specific intel on that stuff right now is really fun and I think it's a key thing that I value a lot hearing what she has learned from being at Churchill Vance. For sure I kind of think of it imagine you like you're betting on 10 year olds playing basketball and you had some inside information that 10 year old Joel indeed got no fight with 10 year old James Harden. You know in the locker room before the game that that would probably be useful information. Yeah it certainly would and like it is so unique in terms of like the the atmosphere around these horses and stuff like that and it's just really good information to have so I really value Megan's insights. She did nail the winner a couple years ago back in 2020 that racing mentioned with the horse who would jolt to the right out of the gauges like OK the post position is good. We should feel good about this horse so cool talk to Megan get her insights there again follow on Twitter Megan divine TV and check out all of her work on the horse racing happy hour podcast and America's best racing as well. Let's dive into covering the future for this week and add obviously a weird week with things come up in the year but it sounds like your baseball stuff is up and running now over the powering. Absolutely it was you know it has not been the best couple weeks at work just because I've I took an opportunity to pour all my code over from Python 2 to Python 3 so I didn't update. I mean you know my my mat kept on yelling at me saying Python 2 will no longer be supported. Python 2 will no longer be supported. Please switch and I found I did an update and my Python 2 was just gone. It was like they literally during the update wiped out like my Python framework. So it's like OK you know we're not you know but we're during the middle of the NFL season I would have just downloaded Python 2 again and kept going on with my life but it was April so I took an opportunity but unfortunately that means it took me a little while longer to to port everything but it also makes me I think I have I don't know thousands of lines of baseball code. Yeah and stuff that was written a long time ago I was like no I actually put a lot of work into this at one point. But yeah so I have everything it includes the most current data. I'm way closer to the markets on a team like the Mets now than it was before and so you check that out at thepowerank.com slash predictions. All right the powerank.com slash predictions to get Ed's baseball numbers are running my own numbers to for baseball this year. I'm typically tweeting those but then also putting on the Action Network app. So if you have the Action Network app you can follow me there putting most it's mostly money lines and then strike out props because that's what I have models for. So both of us chucking along with MLB stuff right now for the future this week though. I want to talk some Formula One because there are going to be a lot of eyes as we go on Formula One with this being the first ever Miami Grand Prix. So I figured I'd talk up a bet my numbers like for that before practice and qualifying which starts on Friday. That's for Valtteri Botas finished top 6 which is currently plus 195 over at Vanduul sportsbook. The implied odds there are 33.9% whereas I have a Botas at 39.9% to finish instead of top 6. So 6 percentage points of gap there between my numbers and the sportsbook. And with Botas it is a small sample because I mean it's true for all races you're given the car changes but all old data is bad because this is his first year at Botas with Alpha Romeo big step down from what he was with previously with Mercedes. So it's we had to lean on small samples with Botas but that small sample is pretty good so far. I lean on a number that I call speed score. It's a number I create myself it includes a drivers finishing position but leans heavily on practice times qualifying speeds to get a better idea of how good they were out fast. They were downplaying the finish because finishes can be fluky especially with attrition and stuff like that only six drivers this year had a speed score better than 10.0 in all four races and those guys are the two Ferrari drivers the two red build drivers George Russell and Valtteri Botas. Botas's best speed score actually came two weeks ago the most recent race in Imola he almost ran down Russell for a fourth place finish there didn't get there finished fifth but he was also six in the opener. So Botas has been top six in two out of four races so far he was eighth in one of the other ones retired in the other. So you know two for four so far again the implied odds here 33.9% the Ferrari engines are very good this year Botas seem to benefit from that as Alpha Romeo does run a Ferrari engine there will be pretty stiff competition for the top six this week I'm not expecting huge surges from Mercedes but Russell's still been very good my numbers like Fernando Alonzo quite a bit and of course we've seen McLaren tick up the past couple weeks too so it's not like an easy spot to be and to get in the top six if you allocate four spots potentially to Ferrari and Red Bull but I still think that we're counting for that enough with Botas here plus 195 so my numbers do like Botas plus 195 to finish inside the top six it's weird to be on Botas given the transition from Mercedes to Alpha Romeo but 2022 is a very weird year so let's embrace that chaos and dive on in now Ed we got two American races in Formula one this year we got Miami and Austin we have three next year with one out in Vegas so you got me to dive in the NFL draft got me to to bite on some golf to any chance we can get you to bite on Formula one at some point maybe maybe I just need to watch that Netflix series I think and then that's true you do it's awesome I would I'd recommend it that's why I started doing this modeling to begin with you know enjoying that show and it was a sport my wife and I both enjoyed as a result of that so built that out and it's done well so far for me and I think that so you like the Bundesliga because you say it's like it's art kind of you know that kind of thing is Formula one is very similar because it's it's so engineering heavy so I think that like there there should be a heavy overlap between Bundesliga fans and Formula one fans from that perspective it also gives me like the trashy reality TV aspect like that's kind of in there too but for you I would say the Bundesliga aspect is what should attract you towards Formula one. All right I'll check it out I mean wait what do you think the art is like in the engineering of the car. Yeah and like it translates well because like watching these cars whip around the corners and sticking to the track like the downforce they generate it's absurd so I think that you would appreciate that you know if you were to watch it for long enough time. All right sounds good check it out right so we're going to get added here on Formula one in the very near future but give me Botas plus 195 finished top 6 on Sunday that is all that we have here for today on covering the spread good to be back in the saddle once again for this week both literally and figuratively again thank you to Megan divine for swinging by and breaking down our thoughts on the 2022 Kentucky Derby give her a follow on Twitter at Megan divine TV and check out the horse racing happy hour podcast and America's best racing for all of her insights as you mentioned the power bank dot com slash predictions for MLB stuff what else is going on for you over the power rank. Yeah we're still working on the newsletter every week at least for I mean definitely through May I'll probably take a little bit of a break in June but everybody got tonight and definitely been working on 7 nuggets got another interesting one coming out this Saturday so you can sign up for that at the power rank dot com. And I am on Twitter at Jim Saunas J I M S A N N E S you can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast big thank you to everyone for tuning in for this week good luck to you betting the 2022 Kentucky Derby have fun enjoy that enjoy F1 enjoy NASCAR MLB or at NBA playoffs NHL playoffs whatever it may be good luck to you we'll talk to you once again next week this has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network. What's up guys is Jordan Spieth if you're watching this video please like and subscribe to the fan dual YouTube channel.